Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings offense had some issues in the passing game last season but a lot of that was the healthy of Adam Thielen, this year they hope he stays healthy. The problem now is they traded his partner Stefon Diggs and they are relying on a rookie, Justin Jefferson, to replace Diggs’ production. Lucky for them Jefferson is a talented guy. It will help if they get some production from veteran Tajee Sharpe or rookie KJ Osborn too. The offensive line needs to play better but at this point they are counting on individuals stepping up their play more than personnel changes. Unless rookie Ezra Cleveland can find a starting spot there isn’t much of a talent upgrade coming. Where the team doesn’t need any help is at RB. Dalvin Cook stayed healthy last year and he was fantastic. They have a solid backup in Alexander Mattison and the team should use both of them to make the offense better. Kirk Cousins isn’t fancy but he gets the job done and I think this team can move back to the top of the division.
The reason this team can make a move is largely because of a trade they made just a few weeks prior to the regular season. They picked up DE Yannick Ngakoue in a trade from Jacksonville. They already have Danielle Hunter at one DE spot and Ngakoue makes them elite on the edges. An elite pass rush should make things easier on their evolving secondary that will have new CBs all around. With two top DEs getting pressure the entire defense will be much better. Anthony Barr and Erick Kendricks will be free to roam at LB and Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris can create problems at safety. They need Mike Hughes and rookie Jeff Gladney to play well at CB but they shouldn’t haven’t to cover for too long.
I think the Vikings can make a move in the division because their defense should be improved and while they will miss Diggs in the passing game the offense should be more harmonious without his complaining about not getting the ball enough. Team unity should be improved and if Thielen is healthy and Jefferson plays like he’s able the offense can be better than last year. Ngakoue can be a game changer on defense and Mike Zimmer already had a solid unit to begin with.
Green Bay Packers
It should be a dogfight between Green Bay and Minnesota for the NFC North division. The Packers had a really good year last year but they are not getting a lot of credit going into this season. The offense is lead by Aaron Rodgers, in theory anyway. Last year, new head coach Matt LaFleur leaned heavily on Aaron Jones and the running game because the passing offense is Rodgers to Davante Adams and not much else. Jones wasn’t just the leading rusher he was also second in receptions behind Adams. It was Jones that kept the offense running. Jamaal Williams contributed too but this season the team is looking to rookie RB AJ Dillon to bring a different power dimension to the table. This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense as long as LaFleur can hand the ball off to a solid stable of backs. The offensive line is largely intact with the one exception being RT where Ricky Wagner replaces Bryan Bulaga. Wagner was cheaper than bringing back Bulaga in free agency but there’s a reason he’s cheaper.
The Packers defense is solid upfront with Kenny Clark being the major contributor in the middle. After years of not spending money in free agency the team splurged last off season on OLB Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith and that worked out well as both guys were playmakers. This season they got a new ILB in Christian Kirksey from Cleveland, they signed him as an alternative to re-signing Blake Martinez who got big money from the Giants. The Packers haven’t been ones to spend money on ILB and Kirksey was cheaper and he’s a solid addition if he’s healthy. The secondary is very good and could be even better this year. CBs Kevin King and Jaire Alexander were good last year with safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage Jr playing well. If Josh Johnson can bounce back from an off year this secondary can be one of the best in the game.
This team played well under Matt LaFleur and he showed that even though he has one of the best QBs in football he understands that the offense can’t be all Rodgers. The team didn’t help Rodgers out much in the passing game this off season but adding AJ Dillon adds a major power element to the run game. For a team that went 13-3 last season the Packers haven’t been mentioned as an elite contender this year and I think people see a little regression coming, I agree. It will be a fight to the end between Minnesota and Green Bay for the division.
Detroit Lions
I’m not sure the Lions are much better than the Bears and I’m not sure the Bears are much better than the Lions so when in doubt give the edge to the team with the better QB. Matthew Stafford was off to a blistering pace last season before he had an injury, clearly having Darrell Bevell as his offensive coordinator agreed with him. This season the team is hoping a healthy TJ Hockenson at TE and rookie RB D’Andre Swift will add the playmakers the offense needs. Kerryon Johnson is a solid RB when he’s healthy but that just isn’t often enough and Swift is a bigger playmaker. The team is clearly not willing to rely on Johnson as they made a late signing of veteran Adrian Peterson. Peterson was cut by Washington and now he returns to the NFC North. He still has something left and he could pair nicely with Swift and render Kerryon Johnson moo. Hockenson can be a game breaker over the middle if he stays healthy and has Stafford throwing to him all year. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola may not be household names but they are a good NFL trio. The offensive line needs a rookie from Ohio St., Jonah Jackson, and a free agent signee from Philadelphia whose name I do not want to try to type out, to step up at RG and RT respectively. If they keep Matthew Stafford upright and healthy, he can sling it with the best of him and D’Andre Swift is the best RB this team has had since Barry Sanders retired. Peterson is the bigger name but he’s 35 and slowing down. The offense has potential.
The defense has potential, unfortunately it has the potential to be pretty ugly if things don’t go exactly right. They do not have an elite pass rusher but Matt Patricia comes from the Belichick school of defense where you don’t need one elite guy if you can generate it from multiple points. They have Trey Flowers at one DE spot, he’s good for seven sacks in a good year. Romeo Okwara is the other starter but the team really needs his younger brother, rookie Julian Okwara, to take that job and run with it. Julian was a heck of a prospect out of Notre Dame before he got hurt last year and he has pass rushing potential. The Lions signed Jamie Collins to play LB and he can also get to the QB and has played in this defensive system before. He’s pretty hit-or-miss as to how effective he can be but when he’s on he can wreak havoc. The secondary finally freed Darius Slay when they shipped him off to Philadelphia. They signed Desmond Trufant from the Falcons to man one spot and drafted Jeff Okudah to be their top guy. Trufant isn’t the guy he was a few years ago so they need him to rebound and Okudah is a real talent but it’s a big ask to have a rookie line up as your #1 CB in a division that has Adam Thielen, Davante Adams and Allen Robinson. Not to mention a schedule the features matchups with guys like Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, TY Hilton and Mike Evans. Okudah will get some baptism by fire in year one. The Lions were pretty bad last year and if they don’t improve a lot Matt Patricia will be another failed Bill Belichick disciple as a head coach.
Chicago Bears
The Bears went 8-8 and are largely going to trot out the same team they had last year unless you believe Nick Foles is coming to save the day, he already lost the starting job…for now. Not to rain on the Bears’ fans parade but in Foles career he’s had exactly one good season and one incredible playoff run several years after that as a fill-in. His one good year he had a TD-Interception ratio of 27-2, that’s amazing but he also only threw for 2800 yards or so and only started 10 games. This is still Mitch Trubisky’s team until he gives it away. Allen Robinson is a solid #1 WR and I like Anthony Miller but the team felt the need to pluck Ted Ginn from the retirement line, he’s 35 and was never that great of a WR. That doesn’t fill me with confidence in Riley Ridley contributing any time soon. Tarik Cohen is a RB in name only and David Montgomery just got hurt and is going to miss some time. They have to hope Cole Kmet can shine as a rookie TE otherwise they are hoping against hope that Jimmy Graham’s corpse can contribute. Graham hasn’t been a game changer in about five years. You could say I’m pessimistic about the Bears offense but that would be offensive to pessimism. The best news on offense from the off season was they dismissed their offensive coordinator but then they followed that up by hiring a former Bengals offensive coordinator, it wasn’t even the good one, Jay Gruden, it was Bill Lazor. Not a lot of teams are looking to recreate the juggernaut that was the Andy Dalton era Bengals offense that never won a playoff game.
Thankfully the Bears defense has been elite and even after losing former coordinator Vic Fangio the team didn’t really miss a beat under Chuck Pagano. They run a 3-4 defense and usually defensive linemen are fairly non-descript in three-man fronts but Akiem Hicks has been quite a player for the Bears. Obviously, Khalil Mack is the driving force of the defense and he is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Without him the defense is just not the same. The team tried to get him some help by spending big free agent money on Robert Quinn, bringing him in from Dallas. I’m not a fan of the move because Quinn has only been effective in his career as a 4-3 DE and failed pretty spectacularly when he’s been asked to be a pass rushing OLB. If Pagano can make him an effective player at that spot, he should get coach of the decade because other great coaches (most notably Wade Phillips) failed to do so. In the secondary they have a great safety in Eddie Jackson and I really like their pick of Jaylon Johnson at CB in the draft. Kyle Fuller is effective at the other CB spot but I’m still not sure they have a great plan at SS. The choice between Tashaun Gipson and Deon Bush isn’t exactly exciting.
I don’t think the Bears are going to be terrible, their defense simply won’t let that happen. However, barring a major step by Trubisky or Bill Lazor becoming a genius level play caller the offense doesn’t look like it’s really going to improve. I’m not sure what the plan was to get better this off season but I’m not seeing it. With Stafford back healthy in Detroit the Lions should be better and I don’t think the Vikings or Packers are going to fall off that much which doesn’t leave the Bears much wiggle room.
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