AFC East Draft Review
When a team trades their first-round pick for a #1 WR and still ends up with a first-round talent in the second round of the draft, that’s a pretty good draft day. The Bills did just that with Stefon Diggs and AJ Epenesa, throw in a good RB a solid backup QB and some other potential contributors and that’s an excellent draft weekend. Miami had a lot of picks and they did very well with them. A QB, a new LT, offensive line depth all over and some nice additions to a defense that did quite well in free agency and the Dolphins rebuild is in good shape. The Jets fills some huge needs with a new LT Mekhi Becton and WR Denzel Mims. They even covered themselves at safety with Ashtyn Davis in case the Jamal Adams situation goes bad. Solid additions to a team that needed it. The Patriots did what the Patriots do, they traded out of the first round and then picked guys they wanted with little regard for where they were valued by others. It doesn’t always work, especially in the early rounds but Bill Belichick hasn’t made any trades for other team’s draft mistakes and then revived them so give him time. He’s much better at taking someone else’s bust and turning them into a player, Kyle Van Noy was the latest one. I’m waiting for him to steal Josh Rosen at the trade deadline if Stidham looks like he’s in over his head.
Buffalo Bills
(54) AJ Epenesa DE Iowa
(86) Zack Moss RB Utah
(128) Gabriel Davis WR UCF
(167) Jake Fromm QB Georgia
(188) Tyler Bass K Georgia Southern
(207) Isaiah Hodgins WR Oregon St.
(239) Dane Jackson CB Pittsburgh
Immediate Impact: DE AJ Epenesa, RB Zack Moss
Epenesa isn’t going to start with Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes set at DE but both of them are aging DEs that will need to rotate out and Epenesa can play either side of the line and play DT on passing downs. He brings a lot of versatility to a defensive line that needs more depth, he’ll get plenty of snaps. The Bills let Frank Gore go after watching Devin Singletary be more effective in his rookie year. However, Singletary is a smaller back who has a myriad of skills and while he’s a physical runner he would be better off not taking so many hard hits. Moss is a bigger back with the physical skills to excel between the tackles and allow Singletary to save his touches for the outside runs where he is highly effective.
Best Value: DE AJ Epenesa
I don’t care what the stop watch at the combine says AJ Epenesa should have been a first round pick. Every team that passed on him is going to regret it. On a team like the Bills who have multiple defensive linemen over the age of thirty Epenesa is going to be a great rotational piece at multiple positions and eventually he’ll be a starter. The Bills didn’t have a first-round pick but they got one anyway.
Sleeper: CB Dane Jackson
The Bills have star CB Tre’Davious White but they are counting on the recently signed Josh Norman to come in and resurrect his career opposite White. That’s a big gamble for a team that is poised to move to the top of the AFC East with the Patriots looking vulnerable. They don’t have a lot of depth either which means Jackson has a chance to stick around an contribute. He can play inside and out and while he isn’t the biggest or the fastest CB, he’s a fighter and that might be enough to get on the field.
Overall Analysis
Epenesa can be the steal of the draft and I love the Moss pick, he’s a great fit for this roster. The Bills are trying to make a move in the AFC at just the right time as the East is wide open with the Patriots in transition. You can’t evaluate this draft without acknowledging the fact the team traded their first-round pick for Stefon Diggs. Diggs is the best overall WR they have had in a while and bringing him in makes John Brown that much better because it takes the focus off of him, Brown is a hell of a #2 WR. It also makes Cole Beasley that much more effective in the slot. Great move at the right time for the team and especially for their QB. WR Gabriel Davis has some talent and he should either push for playing time or push guys like Duke Williams and Isaiah McKenzie to step it up to keep their spots. QB Jake Fromm was a great get in the fifth round. At worst he’s an upgrade as a backup over Matt Barkley and at best he might be a great insurance policy if Josh Allen never takes the next step in his development. They took a kicker which is weird because they already have a couple. WR Isaiah Hodgins is going to need an out-of-this-world performance to make the roster. CB Dane Jackson was solid seventh-round choice.
Miami Dolphins
(5) Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
(18) Austin Jackson OT USC
(30) Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn
(39) Robert Hunt OL Louisiana-Lafayette
(56) Raekwon Davis DT Alabama
(70) Brandon Jones S Texas
(111) Solomon Kindley OG Georgia
(154) Jason Strowbridge DL North Carolina
(164) Curtis Weaver OLB Boise St.
(185) Blake Ferguson LS LSU
(246) Malcolm Perry WR Navy
Immediate Impact: QB Tua Tagovailoa, OT Austin Jackson, OL Robert Hunt
I’m not sure how immediate Tua’s impact will be but knowing Ryan Fitzpatrick’s usual M.O. he will play well early and then fall apart and Tua will step in. If Tua is healthy, he’s fantastic, that’s a big if. Austin Jackson isn’t a ready-made player but he’s by far the best option at LT and when your QB of the future has past injury issues, you go with the best man for the job. He will start at LT and push Julie’n Davenport over to compete at RT. OL Robert Hunt is an intriguing prospect, he played OT in college and most assume he will move inside to guard in the NFL. However, in Miami I think he might just compete with Davenport and Jesse Davis for the RT spot and then if he doesn’t win it, he could end up at RG. I think Hunt will prove to be one of the five best offensive linemen on the team, it’s more about what’s the best lineup overall.
Best Value: OLB Curtis Weaver
I do not know how this guy got all the way to the fifth round of the draft. I’m a little upset the Patriots passed on him several times. He is definitely a Patriots type player, evidenced by the fact that Brian Flores’ team took him. Weaver isn’t a flashy speed rusher off the edge but he’s an effective one. He had first-round potential and I’m not completely certain why he fell this far. The Dolphins signed Kyle Van Noy for one OLB spot but Weaver will give Vince Biegel a run for the other side. If not, he’s a fantastic third OLB for this team. Great pick, phenomenal value.
Sleeper: OG Solomon Kindley
The Dolphins signed Ereck Flowers to big free agent deal to come in and play LG, a position he admittedly played well at last year for the Redskins. Flowers resurrected his career with a solid half of a season stepping in for the Redskins after some injuries. Flowers was a colossal bust for the previous 4.5 years of his career flaming out with the Giants and Jaguars. Let’s just say I’m skeptical of his career turnaround. Kindley is a mammoth human being who moves surprising well for a guy who is 6’3 337 lbs. He is built like an ox and his strength is beyond NFL caliber. Both Flowers and incumbent RG Michael Dieter could be beaten out for their job and while Robert Hunt could be an OG or OT, Solomon Kindley is a guard for sure and I really like his odds of becoming a starter.
Overall Analysis
Obviously, when a team takes a QB with a top five pick that draft is going to be judged by the success of that QB. In this case it’s going to be judged by Tua’s health initially. However, this draft might end up having enough good players to overcome any issues Tua has moving forward. They did draft two of the most important positions in the NFL with their first two picks so this is a very important draft for the future of the team. They took a risk on Tua and OT Austin Jackson isn’t a sure thing either. I really like Jackson and I think he has elite skills that just need a little more time to develop but if both Tua and Jackson fail, everyone in Miami will be looking for jobs in a couple of years. Their third first-round pick Igbinoghene has loads of potential but with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones at CB he’ll have to make his mark as the nickel corner and that’s no sure thing. Veteran Bobby McCain isn’t going to hand over that job without a fight. I do love the fact that in addition to a new LT they also drafted Hunt and Kindley. Hunt has lots of versatility and potential and while Kindley may never be a Pro Bowl regular he could end up a 10-year starter in the NFL. All three of those guys make Tua feel safer. DT Raekwon Davis isn’t flashy but he plays nose tackle and those guys rarely are flashy. He may have gone too soon in the second round but keep in mind he was actually the Dolphins fifth pick overall and they had no backing up Davon Godchaux at NT. If you don’t believe me take a look at who they signed as undrafted free agents, two NTs (Benito Jones and Ray Lima). They know they need some options there. S Brandon Jones is another guy that simply isn’t flashy. He’s not a great athlete but he’s smart and he knows where to be. The team isn’t stacked at safety and Jones’ intelligence will be a welcome addition. Brian Flores learned from Belichick and Belichick loves smart safeties. DL Jason Strowbridge is a solid investment in a developmental player, even if he ends up on the practice squad. Usually drafting a long snapper is a little crazy but when you have 11 picks you might as well take one when you need one because Blake Ferguson is going to end up being your long snapper and that means you drafted a starter. WR Malcolm Perry is a nice story of a great QB out of Navy who is going to try to make an NFL team at a different position. Taking a hard-working, intelligent, respectful guy that Perry is only good news for your team, even if he doesn’t make the roster, he sets a tone in training camp. He’s a longshot but who doesn’t want to cheer for a longshot out of the Naval Academy.
New England Patriots
(37) Kyle Dugger S Lenoir-Rhyne
(60) Josh Uche OLB Michigan
(87) Anfernee Jennings LB Alabama
(91) Devin Asiasi TE UCLA
(101) Dalton Keene TE Virginia Tech
(159) Justin Rohrwasser K Marshall
(182) Michael Onwenu OG Michigan
(195) Justin Herron OL Wake Forest
(204) Cassh Maluia LB Wyoming
(230) Dustin Woodard OL Memphis
Immediate Impact: OLB Josh Uche
This kid is a tailor-made Bill Belichick LB. He can run sideline-to-sideline as a LB and also rush the passer from the edge when need be. He’s basically the replacement for Kyle Van Noy which is a good thing because right now the Patriots have Brandon Copeland and Shilique Calhoun penciled in to start at OLB. Those two aren’t scaring anyone. I see Uche stepping in rather quickly, he won’t be Van Noy but he’s better than the rest of the group.
Best Value: ?????
Yeah, I got nothing here. Belichick likes his kind of players which doesn’t usually match up with what others like and where they are valued. Uche is the best player they got and he came about where he was expected to go, mid to late second round.
Sleeper: S Kyle Dugger
It’s weird to call a player who was over-drafted a sleeper, especially a second rounder but Duggar is a Belichick special. Most teams had him late second or in the third round, not top five of the second round. However, in Belichick’s hands Duggar could be very good. He isn’t a traditional safety and most teams are looking for more coverage-oriented safeties but Belichick likes the guys who can hit. Patrick Chung has made a very long career being a Belichick guy, a big, smart safety that tackles and knows where to line up and where to go. Duggar is basically a far more athletic version of Chung. Patrick Chung is 32, Belichick just drafted his replacement and if Duggar works out, he could be an All-Pro by the time his career is over.
Overall Analysis
Once again Bill Belichick is a mystery at the draft. The visual during the draft whenever they cut to Belichick’s house was usually his laptop sitting at the table with his dog sitting in the seat. If you told me his dog was pushing buttons on the keyboard with his paw to pick players, I wouldn’t doubt you for a second. It’s hard to disagree with a guy that has put together six Super Bowl winners but let’s just say he has proven to be great coach considering he’s won six Super Bowls with the players Belichick the GM has given him to work with. Duggar has immense potential. Uche fits the defensive system like a glove. LB Anfernee Jennings was severely over-drafted especially considering he’s a whole lot like Juwan Bentley who is an athletically limited MLB who struggles in coverage. TE Devin Asiasi is a solid prospect but he was the second TE off the board, he wasn’t the second best TE in the draft. Then they drafted another TE ten picks later, the fourth off the board but not the fourth best TE. They took a kicker, they needed a kicker, but by all accounts, Rohrwasser wasn’t the best kicker. Onwenu and Herron were solid depth picks for a team that doesn’t have a lot of depth on the offensive line and both could develop into future starters. Cassh Maluia isn’t making the team unless he’s a special team’s demon. Dustin Woodard is a seriously undersized offensive lineman who only has a chance to make the team because David Andrews is the only other center on the roster.
New York Jets
(11) Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
(59) Denzel Mims WR Baylor
(68) Ashtyn Davis S California
(79) Jabari Zuniga OLB Florida
(120) Lamical Perine RB Florida
(125) James Morgan QB FIU
(129) Cameron Clark OL UNC-Charlotte
(158) Bryce Hall CB Virginia
(191) Braden Mann P Texas A&M
Immediate Impact: OT Mekhi Becton, WR Denzel Mims
Becton is a freak athlete for a man his size and he has great length, great feet and good power, he looks like an all-world type of LT. The biggest concern is keeping his weight under control so he can continue to dominate. He has some technique work to do but that is not a huge worry. He has All-Pro potential and probably has the highest ceiling of any of the top four OTs from this draft. He might also have the biggest bust potential. Mims is another fantastic athlete (there was a theme to many of the Jets’ picks). He comes in to replace Robbie Anderson’s production, although the team did sign Breshad Perriman to help do that too. Mims is a big, fast WR who was highly productive in Baylor’s high-powered offense. He’s going to have to work on using his own skills to get open and not relying as heavily on the scheme, that’s the big difference between college and the NFL.
Best Value: CB Bryce Hall
I might be wrong about this is Hall’s ankle injury from last year has any lasting effects but this kid is a player. If he doesn’t get injured, he competes with CJ Henderson to be the second CB off the board, he’s that good. The Jets somehow lucked into him in the fifth round. They signed Pierre Desir after he was cut by the Colts and they have Brian Poole as their nickel corner but they don’t have much else at CB. As long as Hall is healthy, I think he wins a starting job, and he was a fifth-round pick (I still can’t believe it). Hall isn’t the fastest player but he sticks to guys like glue. There was once a CB named Derrell Revis who wasn’t really a speed guy either but somehow, he made it work. That’s a pretty lofty expectation for Hall but I’m just pointing out you don’t have to be a great CB.
Sleeper: One of the Florida guys (Zuniga or Perine)
Zuniga has all the tools you look for in a pass rusher but he was highly inconsistent. He looks the part of an outside pass rusher but somehow, he just disappears during games. Perine isn’t great at anything but he’s not bad at anything either. The Jets are spending too much money on LeVeon Bell so they are going to use him and they just signed Frank Gore, even though he’s 147 years old. Perine is a great backup option and I think he can be a bit more. Think of guys like Raheem Mostert or Chris Carson who aren’t great at any one thing but are pretty effective.
Overall Analysis
The Jets started off with some guys with some really high upside. Becton could be a star at LT and Mims certainly checks plenty of boxes when it comes to impressive looking WRs. Ashtyn Davis was a star track sprinter at Cal before walking on to the football team. He didn’t work out at the combine but if he had he would have been one of the most impressive athletes to ever compete there. The team has Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye but Adams is going to get really expensive here pretty soon and the team has to decide where to spend its money. Davis could be a fantastic replacement for one of them. Zuniga and Perine are good players that will have to find their place to make a difference. The Jets are far from stacked at either position so both players should make the roster it’s just a matter of how much they contribute. James Morgan is a curious choice considering Sam Darnold is so young but the Jets only have David Fales behind him so a developmental QB might make the team. However, I think they may want to find a better veteran backup than Fales. Cameron Clark might be able to give them some depth on the interior offensive line, this team can’t be too particular when looking for quality depth there, they don’t have much else. Hall was a gigantic steal, as a Patriots fan I hate that they got him. They took a punter with a sixth-round pick. They needed a punter but they probably should have used that pick elsewhere. Perhaps Braden Mann will be their punter for the next 20 years but it’s a better bet they could have found someone else as an undrafted free agent.
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