The NFL Draft Combine is upon us and we started off on Thursday with QBs, WRs and TEs. The QB group was missing the two headliners of the class in Joe Burrow (skipping the workouts because he’s the presumptive #1 overall pick) and Tua Tagovailoa (because he’s not cleared from his hip injury). That left us to sort out the next tier of guys and see who could separate themselves. The WR group is thought to be the best WR draft class ever and they didn’t disappoint. All of the top guys worked out with the exception of Tee Higgins from Clemson. It usually doesn’t hurt a great player to not work out at the combine but in this case Higgins didn’t help himself as being out of sight means your out of mind and so many players looked incredibly good. TE is one of the more underwhelming position groups this year and while a few guys looked good I wouldn’t be surprised if there are no TEs in round one this year and I would be absolutely shocked if there was more than one. Here’s a Hott Read on each position.
Quarterback
- With no Tua and no Joe Burrow working out it left Oregon’s Justin Herbert as the headliner. Herbert looked good throwing the ball and looked very athletic in the workouts. He solidified himself as the third guy in the group but as long as Tua’s health checks out next month being third is the best Herbert is going to do. Herbert aims his throws too much and he has to learn to trust himself more and just let it go especially on deep throws.
- Utah St.’s Jordan Love looks like the next guy behind Herbert and he basically confirmed that by being good and by having no one else step up to compete with him for that spot. Love is an impressive athlete with a top-notch arm. He wasn’t great last season compared to the year before but that was more about circumstances at Utah St. (new coaches and losing almost his entire offense around him). He’s probably a top 15 pick.
- Washington’s Jacob Eason was supposed to be the competition to Jordan Love and while Eason has a canon for an arm he didn’t put on the kind of show people were expecting. Also, reports are that his interviews with teams were less than impressive. Words and phrases like immature, laid-back and lacking swagger are used to describe Eason. In the hyper competitive environment of the NFL, front offices don’t want their QBs to lack fire and competitiveness. Eason has the potential to be a big, strong-armed QB with a long career like Ben Roethlisberger or he could be the next Kyle Boller, that’s the problem with him as a prospect.
- Jake Fromm is another big name at the combine and while he didn’t do anything to hurt himself he basically confirmed what everyone knows. Fromm is a good player who lacks elite arm strength and isn’t going to wow anyone physically. In an NFL that is being taken over by guys with athleticism like Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson and arm talent like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen it’s hard for anyone to get excited by a QB who compares more to Andy Dalton.
- Oklahoma/former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts looked good throwing the ball. Everyone knew he would look good in the athletic portion of the combine it was how he performed in the throwing drills that impressed. The one thing I will say is that while he has certainly improved as a passer it is his ability to read a defense and move through progressions that will limit him early in his career. While he may not want to be “the next Taysom Hill” it is probably the best path forward for him early on.
- When it comes to the rest of the QB group there wasn’t much of note. If I were a team looking for a developmental QB in the mid to late rounds two guys looked worth taking a chance on. Colorado QB Steven Montez and Iowa’s Nate Stanley (that’s not even a homer pick). Montez showed really good athleticism and a great deep arm. He lacks touch on intermediate routes but that’s why he’s a developmental guy. Stanley looked far more fluid and athletic than expected and for a guy his size that was impressive. His biggest issue is consistency but all the tools are there. Stanley came into the combine as a 6th or 7th round guy, I could see him as a late 4th or 5th rounder now.
- One last note. While there were a lot of people thinking Jalen Hurts might be the “next Taysom Hill” the guy who should consider trying to be that is Michigan’s Shea Patterson. After watching him for the past several years at Michigan I’ve never been overly impressed with him as a QB but he tested fairly well as an athlete. One thing it is going to take for someone to follow Hill’s path to the NFL is a commitment to being that type of player, Hurts seems quite reluctant to do so, Patterson should embrace it.
Wide Receivers
- There has never been a WR class like this one and there are legitimately eight WRs who could go in round one. CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson and Laviska Shenault are almost assuredly going in round one. Jalen Reagor and Brandon Aiyuk have the potential to sneak into the first round.
- I’m not sure the race to be the top WR got any clearer after the combine. CeeDee Lamb is a favorite of many but he didn’t break 4.5 in the forty which was a little disappointing, but then he went out and looked fantastic in the on field drills. Jerry Jeudy was always going to look good running routes but it was him running 4.45 that caught people’s attention. No one thought he would be faster than Lamb. Henry Ruggs III was disappointed he didn’t break John Ross’ forty record but he ran 4.27 which is crazy fast. Unfortunately, after running so fast he hurt his quad and didn’t do the on field drills. Like I said, it didn’t clear much up. These three still look like the top tier of the position but who’s first, second and third is anyone’s guess.
- Tee Higgins didn’t workout at the combine preferring to wait until his pro day at Clemson. In this case, it may have hurt him a little. There were some guys chasing him for the top spot in the second tier of WRs after the top three and certainly Justin Jefferson made up some ground. Jefferson ran a 4.43 which was a pleasant surprise to many. The other thing that might hurt Higgins is that while he fills the profile of the big, physical and fast WR there were a couple of guys that emerged as alternatives to him meaning teams may not value him as much if they can get a similar profile guy later on. Denzel Mims of Baylor is 6’3 207 and ran 4.38 while Chase Claypool of Notre Dame is 6’4 238 and ran 4.42. If Higgins had been there and run in the 4.4 range at 6’4 216 lbs. he would have solidified his status with the top tier guys. Now he has to hope his pro day goes well.
- A couple of guys who helped themselves by running under 4.4 were Texas’ Devin Duvernay and Memphis’ Antonio Gibson, both clocking in at 4.39. Not surprising Duvernay was fast, he’s a track guy but at only 5’10 he needed to show his speed. He was very productive at Texas and he helped himself. Gibson is 6’0 but he’s not purely a WR, as a matter of fact he might be a better RB prospect. His speed got him noticed by many, that’s never a bad thing.
- I mentioned Mims and Claypool before as big WRs who ran very fast. That’s a great combination. Claypool came into the draft as a guy some thought might move to TE due to his size, well he would be a damn fast TE if he does. I think he stays at WR for now. Mims gets a little lost among the impressive group of WRs but he was very productive at Baylor and he checks all the boxes. He and Claypool may go higher than people think, like second round.
- Another bigger WR who had a good day is Liberty’s Antonio Gandy-Golden. The small-school prospect looked good at the Senior Bowl and teams took notice. At 6’4 223 lbs. he was dominant at Liberty and he held his own during Senior Bowl week. At the combine he ran 4.6 in the forty which isn’t anything special but then he looked very smooth and agile in the receiver drills and in the rest of the testing.
- One guy that isn’t getting enough attention is Michael Pittman Jr out of USC. He’s 6’4 223 lbs., he ran 4.52 and he was unbelievably productive at USC. This is a guy that is going to end up going at the end of round two or in round three and then starts for whatever team drafts him next season and he catches 75 balls as a rookie. Everyone should stop sleeping on Pittman.
- One guy emerging as a ridiculous athlete that makes everyone go back to the tape and ask why he wasn’t more productive is Michigan’s Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s 6’2 212 lbs. ran a 4.48 and has a 44.5 inch vertical. Crazy stat about Peoples-Jones, he never had a 100-yard receiving game in 3 years at Michigan. The reasons, some of it was on Michigan’s inconsistent offense, some of it is on Peoples-Jones lacking innate WR skills. He’s a great athlete who lacks burst of the line to separate from DBs (weird considering his vertical which usually translates to athletic burst) and he’s not a great route runner. His athletic skills might trick some team into drafting him too high on the assumption they can make him a better WR, In a draft with so many good WRs I would advise any team against drafting him higher than the fifth round, I’m not kidding I don’t care how athletic he looked.
- Jalen Reagor had an interesting combine. He came in at 5’11 206 lbs. which was a bit heavier than he played at TCU. It seemed to affect his speed because his forty time was 4.47 and he’s faster than that. He needs to take a little of the bulk off and get back to being the speed demon he was in college. The slower speed is going to hurt him a little until him improves it at his pro day. It might knock him into the second round which would make him a steal.
- Laviska Shenault Jr. didn’t exactly help himself on Thursday. He went out and ran a 4.58 forty and while no one expected him to run fast that was slightly disappointing. The bigger disappointment was that he only ran once and then pulled out and didn’t do any of the on field drills or any of the other testing. Shenault is a jack-of-all trades type of WR but he may have lost ground to a guy like Justin Jefferson and that will hurt his stock.
- Every year there are underclassmen that comes out and end up regretting it. I think Quintez Cephus may end up one of those guys. He’s a special case because while he had a year of eligibility left he was a fourth-year player due to sitting out the 2018 season with legal issues. Cephus isn’t particularly big at 6’1 202 lbs. and he ran the slowest forty of all the WRs that ran at 4.73. He isn’t a great route runner and he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well. In a draft class like this one he is the definition of pedestrian. He may really regret not going back to Wisconsin and being in next year’s draft where the competition should be considerably lighter.
Tight Ends
- It’s a good thing the WR class is so stacked because the TE class is really weak. If you’re looking for playmakers in the passing game you might as well draft a big WR and line him up as TE because this class isn’t going to help much.
- The top TE is Cole Kmet out of Notre Dame and he looks the part at 6’6 262 lbs. and he ran a 4.7 forty. There is a physical comparison to Rob Gronkowski but it ends there. He doesn’t have the functional strength of Gronk either getting off the line into his routes and certainly not as a blocker. Kmet has potential to get there but it’s going to take work. He is a potential first-rounder but he looked as good as he did at the combine due to a lack of real competition.
- Albert Okwuegbunam out of Missouri probably had the one number from the TE position that will get some notice, he ran 4.49 in the forty at 6’5 258 lbs., that’s impressive. While he’s a big man that can move he’s pretty stiff and not very smooth. He isn’t a physical blocker and has a ways to go to get better at it. He is fast and there are some good traits to work with but he’s still a project.
- One of the more frustrating TE prospects is Purdue’s Brycen Hopkins. There are times he looks like a future All-Pro because he’s a great athlete and runs like a deer, then he drops the easiest pass ever thrown to him. Hopkins looked great at the combine running around in shorts and t-shirt but he didn’t have to block anyone so that helps. In this draft class he looks good but overall he’s a very inconsistent player.
- One TE of note that didn’t participate in the combine was LSU’s Thaddeus Moss, the son of Randy Moss (yes, that makes me feel old). Moss was found to have a foot fracture during the medical examination at the combine so he couldn’t compete. He will miss several months with rehab so his draft stock might take a hit. He may have been the second best prospect behind Kmet but now we won’t know. He wasn’t an exceptional prospect before the foot issue and that injury isn’t going to help him.
That’s all I’ve got from Thursday. Offensive linemen and running backs are up on Friday. Looking forward to watching Tristan Wirfs show off.
The Hott Read 