MVP
Most Likely Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Russell Wilson, RB Alvin Kamara
Sleepers: QB Carson Wentz, WR Michael Thomas
If you’re going to compete for MVP you have to put up great numbers, be on a winning team and usually being a QB helps. Mahomes won it last year and if he throws for 50 TDs again, he’ll win it again but I think he falls off just slightly and opens the door for someone else. Brady is always a possibility and with adding Antonio Brown to his weapons this could be a big year statistically for Brady and we know he’ll win. Elliott is the focal point of the Dallas offense and that means he matters in this race. Russell Wilson is the Seahawks offense; I don’t know if they will win enough for him to be considered but its possible. Kamara is going to be used a lot in New Orleans so his stats may be worthy but he might only be the 3rd most likely MVP candidate on his own team. The last time Wentz was healthy for nearly a whole season he almost won the award, if he stays healthy, he’s a could do it. Thomas is my deep sleeper. WRs almost never win the award but he could have a phenomenal year and pull it off.
My Pick: Drew Brees
I think Brees has a big year. I think the Saints have a big year. I think Mahomes suffers from unrealistic expectations and that hurts his candidacy when he comes up just short of 50 TDs. This could very well be the Lifetime Achievement MVP Award because Brees has never won it but he’s finished second so many times it feels like he has. He’s a Hall of Famer, lets give him the MVP Award.
Defensive Player of the Year
Most Likely Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE JJ Watt, DE Khalil Mack, CB Stephon Gilmore, LB Luke Kuechly, LB Darius Leonard
Sleeper: DT Chris Jones
Myles Garrett is just coming into his own and this year he has Olivier Vernon opposite him so teams can’t focus solely on stopping him. That should help and he could go for somewhere between 15-18 sacks. Watt is almost always good for 15 sacks and he’s just a stalwart in this category. Mack makes the Bears defense elite. His all-around play along with his ability to pressure the QB makes him a candidate for this award. Gilmore is one of the best CBs in the NFL. Usually for a defensive back to compete for this award you have to have a lot of interceptions but when you’re the guy teams avoid throwing at that doesn’t have to be the case. LBs Kuechly and Leonard face long odds because tackles just aren’t as valuable as sacks or interceptions when it comes to this award but Leonard led the league in tackles by a lot last season and Kuechly is a tackling machine. Jones had a great year last season on a terrible Chiefs defense, now with Frank Clark playing on the same line Jones might have an even better year.
My Pick: Aaron Donald
Like I’m picking against the most dominant defensive player in the league. Donald has been a force of nature the last few years and has won back-to-back DPOY awards. I don’t see him slowing down and I don’t see anyone slowing him down so it’s his award until further notice.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Most Likely Contenders: QB Kyler Murray, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Marquise Brown, RB David Montgomery, TE TJ Hockenson, TE Noah Fant, RB Miles Sanders
Sleepers: WR Terry McLaurin, WR Deebo Samuel
This award might be the hardest to handicap. Murray was the #1 overall pick in the draft so he’s on the list but his growing pains are going to be substantial and his team isn’t going to be very good. Marquise Brown has the advantage that the Ravens don’t have much else at WR so he’s going to be Lamar Jackson’s go-to guy, my only concern is he might get hurt. Montgomery is a talented player but the Bears have three RBs so his usage might not be enough to get him noticed. Hockenson and Fant both suffer from the fact that TEs just don’t get enough love to win this award. They might be the two best rookies by the end of the year and still not win it. Sanders still has to win the starting job from Jordan Howard, I think he will but the longer it takes the harder it will be for him to show what he can do. McLaurin’s stock shot up when the Redskins cut Josh Doctson. They need a #1 WR and McLaurin can be that guy, the question is will the Redskins’ offense with Case Keenum be any good? I like Deebo Samuel and he very well could be the top WR with the 49ers, but what will their offense look like?
My Pick: Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is RB in an offense that is going to have to rely heavily on him both in the run game and the passing game. He’s a multi-dimensional talent so he should put up good numbers. I’m not sure there is going to be a large number of rookies that really stuff the stat sheet so Jacobs should stand out in the crowd.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Most Likely Contenders: LB Devin White, DT Ed Oliver, DT Quinnen Williams, LB Devin Bush, DE Nick Bosa, DE Josh Allen
Sleeper: CB Deandre Baker
Both LBs, Devin White and Devin Bush, are going to rack up an obscene amount of tackles this season. White steps into a Bucs defense that needs a lot of help in the middle and Bush becomes the new Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh. Either of them could follow Darius Leonard’s lead from last year by leading the league in tackles and winning this award as a rookie. Quinnen Williams is playing for Gregg Williams’ defense for the Jets and that could mean good things for him. Nick Bosa and Josh Allen are edge rushers and if either of them gets to 15 sacks or more they would become the favorite for this award. Deandre Baker should get some opportunities for interceptions as he’s the #2 CB opposite Janoris Jenkins for the Giants for now. He’s a talented player and he will make plays for them.
My Pick: Ed Oliver
Oliver plays on one of the better defenses in the NFL with the Bills. He’s a starter at DT and while that’s not usually a sexy position that puts up big stats Oliver can. He should collapse the pocket and get quite a few sacks. Depending on the number of tackles White and Bush put up, or the number of sacks Bosa or Allen put up Oliver might stand out more than they do.
NFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)
Philadelphia
Chicago
New Orleans
L.A. Rams
* Green Bay
* Minnesota
AFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)
New England
Pittsburgh
Houston
Kansas City
* L.A Chargers
* Cleveland
(I had to make a last-minute change. When I was writing this during week 1 games, they announced Nick Foles broke his collarbone during the Jaguars game. Given that’s about a 6-week injury and their backup is Gardner Minshew I can’t leave them as the winners of the AFC South and I think Houston wins the division and Cleveland wins the second wild card spot)
AFC Championship Game
New England over Kansas City
NFC Championship Game
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Super Bowl
New England over New Orleans (Antonio Brown is Super Bowl MVP, just kidding, it’s Edelman of course)
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