New England Patriots
What is there to say about the defending Super Bowl champs? As long as Belichick and Brady are around this division belongs to the Patriots. The offense will change a little bit this season as TE Rob Gronkowski has called it a career. He was a major security blanket for Brady and with him gone Brady will likely rely on WR Julian Edelman that much more. The WR corps looks very deep, much deeper than it’s been in years. Josh Gordon was reinstated from his 197th suspension (it might be less than that it just feels like that many). If Gordon can stay on the field, he’s an exceptional talent. The team drafted N’Keal Harry in round one and he will bring a big, physical presence to the offense, once he’s off injured reserve. Phillip Dorsett and Demaryius Thomas are two veterans looking to make their mark while Jakobi Meyers, an undrafted free agent out of NC State has looked very good in preseason action. RB Sony Michel was excellent when he was healthy last season and he can be the work horse while James White remains one of Brady’s favorite weapons out of the backfield. The team also drafted Damien Harris from Alabama to try to take some pressure off of Michel as an every down back. The offensive line lost Trent Brown at LT but the team drafted Isaiah Wynn last year in the first round and now he’s slated to take that spot. He missed his rookie year with an injury but he should be fine for the regular season this year.
The defense isn’t flashy, they don’t get a lot of sacks and the ones they do get they don’t get from a traditional pass rush. The do create turnovers by getting a lot of interceptions and that comes from playing tough defense that makes teams earn every yard and they just wait for their opportunities. The defensive line replaces one solid veteran, Trey Flowers, with another solid veteran, Michael Bennett. The LB corps gets Dont’a Hightower back healthy and adds Jamie Collins after his last few years spent in Cleveland. Both of these guys add elements the Patriots can use to create pass rush. CB Stephon Gilmore is the one true standout in the secondary while S Devin McCourty is the rock the secondary is built on. Gilmore is one of the best CBs in football which makes life harder on the guy lining up across from him. The team has veteran Jason McCourty and youngsters JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones holding down the fort. This team won’t rely too heavily on rookies but if one does play on defense Joejuan Williams is a safe bet to be that guy. He has versatility in the back end and Belichick loves that.
Belichick still has Josh McDaniels around to call the offense and with Brady at the controls things will run smoothly on the that side of the ball. That’s good because in the last two years the Patriots lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia (two years ago) and defensive play caller Brian Flores (this off season). Belichick never named Flores his defensive coordinator last year and he has yet to name one for this year, he probably won’t. In the preseason it has been said that Jerod Mayo, a former MLB for the Patriots and an assistant coach, has been calling the defense. Mayo was the signal caller when he played so he should be fine handling the duties but he only gets the benefit of the doubt because it seems Belichick has signed off on it. If any other coach tried this move it wouldn’t go over well but when you’ve won 6 Super Bowls no one questions you. The Patriots are my pick to win the Super Bowl, that would be lucky #7.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills invested a first-round pick in QB Josh Allen last season and this year they invested free agent dollars and draft capital to surround him with a better supporting cast. The drafted Devin Singletary and signed free agents Frank Gore and TJ Yeldon, that’s a good thing because they let LeSean McCoy go. It makes for an interesting group in the backfield. Frank Gore still has some juice left while Singletary is an investment in the future and Yeldon is really good in the passing game. They are covered in the backfield. Last year was pretty awful at WR so they signed John Brown to be the deep speed guy and they signed Cole Beasley to be the slot guy. Brown finally gives the team a guy who can get deep enough to take advantage of Allen’s incredible arm strength while Beasley is a move-the-chains kind of guy that Allen should really learn to love. At TE the team signed Tyler Kroft and drafted Dawson Knox to remake the position into one that will be useful to Allen. On the offensive line the team signed free agents Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain and Jon Feliciano to be starters on the inside and drafted Cody Ford to start at RT. They also signed Ty Nsekhe to bring depth. That’s a lot of new starters on offense but they team needed a reboot on that side of the ball. They aren’t going to compete with New England this year but with a better offense this team could push for a wildcard spot.
The offense only has to be average to give this team a shot at the playoff because this defense is really good. They were the #2 overall defense last season and they have a shot to be even better. The only real loss was DT Kyle Williams who retired and they replaced him with first-round pick Ed Oliver, he may actually be an upgrade. With the continued growth of LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano this defense could actually improve. The rest of the d-line is solid and at times excellent. The secondary can be lights out with CB Tre’Davious White and S Micah Hyde leading the way. DE Jerry Hughes has to stave off any drop off with his age if the team wants to continue being dominant but it would help if former 1st round pick Shaq Lawson could produce a little at DE. Oliver will help their pass rush as he’s a better penetrator than Kyle Williams was so that should help the entire line be more effective.
Sean McDermott knows how to coach defense which is why the team nearly stood pat on the unit they already have, with the exception of adding Oliver. On offense they needed to surround Allen with some actual playmakers and try to protect their asset, they did both those things. I think Brown and Beasley are in for big years at WR and Allen will take a step forward if the offensive line comes together to protect him. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has been around a lot of good coaches (Bill Belichick and Nick Saban) and he knows how to call an offense. The defense is in good hands with McDermott and his excellent defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills should out duel the Jets for second place in the AFC East.
New York Jets
The Jets have their QB in second-year man Sam Darnold. He had a solid rookie year considering he wasn’t exactly surrounded by amazing talent and the coaching staff was on the way out. Now he has a new coaching staff and while the talent level is still a little lacking it’s getting better. The major off-season addition was RB LeVeon Bell. After sitting out last season in a holdout Bell signed a massive deal as a free agent. He’s the best RB the Jets have had in a while and he gives Darnold a weapon all over the field. The WR corps isn’t great but Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa get the job done. Anderson can be dynamic but he’s not consistent and he has some off-the-field issues from time to time. TE Chris Herndon looked good last year but he’ll start the season on suspension so that’s not going to help. Ryan Griffin was signed to help out there but I’m not sold on him. The offensive line is where things could go wrong. OTs Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell are nothing special. Kelechi Osemele came over in a trade from Oakland and while he’s an upgrade over what they had at LG his play isn’t what it used to be. RG Brian Winters isn’t bad but he isn’t being helped much by the guys around him. The team was so desperate at center they talked 34-year old Ryan Kalil out of retirement and he immediately stepped in as a starter, that’s not a good sign.
The defense has a chance to be good under the direction of new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. There is talent at each level but they do have some trouble spots to worry about. On the defensive line Leonard Williams is fantastic and rookie first-rounder Quinnen Williams is one to be excited about. At LB, newly signed free agent CJ Mosley is as sure as they come in the middle and his leadership and presence will make a difference in the middle of the line. They lost there other starting ILB Avery Williamson to an injury but I think they will be okay. I really like rookie Blake Cashman out of Minnesota, he can be a player. SS Jamal Adams is a tone-setter for the defense and he’s paired with FS Marcus Maye who’s better than he gets credit for because he’s overshadowed by Adams. Even with all they have going for them the trouble spots could be big trouble. They don’t have an elite edge rusher to get to the QB. They had drafted Jachai Polite, a guy that fell in the draft, hoping he might bring some pass rushing help. His preseason was apparently as bad as his pre-draft workouts and he was cut before the season. At CB Trumaine Johnson was solid last year and nickelback Brian Poole is a proven commodity but they are not deep beyond those two. If your defense doesn’t rush the passer well and you don’t have great coverage in the secondary there is a limit to how good you can be.
Adam Gase is the new head coach and he got the GM who hired him fired and brought in a GM he could work with in Joe Douglas. Gase was once considered a young offensive genius, much like Sean McVay is now. That was only a few short years ago. It goes to show you offensive genius only takes you so far, you have to have some good players (and QBs named Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler don’t count). Gase has a QB to work with now and he was smart enough to hire a great defensive coordinator to run that side of the ball, Gregg Williams will do well even with less than ideal talent.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are a team looking for a direction and at the end of the preseason they chose that direction, it’s all the way down. New head coach Brian Flores is going to try to bring the Patriot way to Miami but they are essentially starting the team from scratch. There is no more obvious place this is relevant than at the QB position. The team signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to be a placeholder as they waited until the 2020 draft to find their QB of the future. Then the Cardinals took Kyler Murray with the first pick of the 2019 draft and Dolphins made a trade for Josh Rosen. They aren’t overly committed to Rosen financially but for now he’s behind the 36-year old Fitzpatrick as the starting QB which makes no sense. The team needs to see if Rosen is worth investing in long-term and they aren’t going to find that out with him on the bench. The team has little talent on offense. RB Kenyan Drake is hurt but he should be back at some point. DeVante Parker offers some talent to throw to as does TE Mike Gesicki. LT Laremy Tunsil was the only elite player on the offense and they traded him to Houston along with WR Kenny Stills for future 1st round picks. They need to invest up front and make a decision on their future QB, Rosen is a talented guy, they need to know if he’s the answer.
Flores is going to call the defense and it’s likely to be a tough year as the team is lacking pretty much throughout the entire unit. DE Charles Harris is likely their top pass rusher, that’s not a good thing. DT Christian Wilkins was a first-round pick and he’s a solid building block but the d-line is pretty poor overall. I like MLB Raekwon MacMillan and WLB Jerome Baker, they are playmakers who just need a little help in front of them. Kiko Alonso was a solid veteran presence at the other LB spot but they traded him to New Orleans. CB Xavien Howard is a top-flight cover man and the best player on this defense and it’s not even close. The team has Reshad Jones, Bobby McCain and Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety but their other CB is Eric Rowe. Flores brought Rowe with him from New England and as a Patriots fan all I can say is Thank You. Sorry but Rowe is terrible and with teams trying to avoid Howard and throwing to Rowe’s side it could be a long year for the Dolphins defense.
Flores has the right temperament to be a great head coach and he worked in so many different capacities for the Patriots over the years he has tons of knowledge to fall back on. He brought Chad O’Shea along from the New England to be his offensive coordinator and it’s up to O’Shea to get the best out of the talent they don’t have. It will be easier to do once they decide on a QB, as long as that QB is Rosen. The Dolphins are my choice to be the worst team in the NFL this season and set themselves up to have their pick of one of the top QBs in next year’s draft. It would be wise to know if they need to invest in Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert or if Rosen can be the guy moving forward. Unfortunately for Miami it doesn’t look like the Dolphins are very wise.
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