Kansas City Chiefs
It’s Patrick Mahomes world and we’re all just living in it. At age 23 he threw for 50 TDs in a season, only the third time that’s been done in NFL history. The other two guys were Peyton Manning and Tom Brady so that’s pretty good company. Mahomes rightfully won the MVP award but the Chiefs once again came up short in the playoffs. Mahomes leads a star-studded cast on offense. WR Tyreek Hill is a speed freak and now that he isn’t going to be suspended for his off the field issues the team can breathe a little easier. TE Travis Kelce is one of the best in the business and a fantastic security blanket for the young QB. WR Sammy Watkins had a good year playing second fiddle to Hill at receiver. The team cut ties with Kareem Hunt during the season last year but Damien Williams stepped in at RB and they didn’t miss a beat. After final roster cuts the Chiefs have added LeSean McCoy who was somewhat surprisingly cut from the Bills. McCoy isn’t that far removed from being a very productive back. He struggled a little last season but he should still have something left to give the Chiefs. The offensive line was good last year but they lost Mitch Morse at center and the interior of the line might not be great, it’s the one thing that could derail this offense, if anything can derail this offense.
What really hurt this team last season was a defense that was terrible. DC Bob Sutton was dismissed and Steve Spagnuolo was brought in to fix things. Spagnuolo has coordinated some of the best defenses in the league before and the first thing he’s doing is ditching the 3-4 alignment and moving to a 4-3. That meant trading OLB Dee Ford and not bringing back the aging Tamba Hali. The team needed pass rushing from the DE spot so they traded for Frank Clark from Seattle and gave him a huge deal. There are going to be some growing pains while the team changes personnel to better fit the 4-3 defense but this unit can’t be much worse so it’s worth the pain. S Tyrann Mathieu was signed as stalwart Eric Berry wasn’t re-signed and while Berry was the heart and soul of the defense for a few years, Mathieu is the superior player now. DT Chris Jones was one of the bright spots last season and he has the versatility to make the transition to the new front four. The hope is that Clark’s presence will make Jones that much more affective. The team is also hoping rookie Juan Thornhill can make the back end of the defense faster and more athletic.
On offense the idea is to change as little as possible and just let Patrick Mahomes keep maturing. The weapons on offense are outstanding and he runs the offense well. If Spagnuolo can get the defense to be halfway decent the team will be a major Super Bowl threat. Mahomes probably won’t throw for 50 TDs again, teams will adjust against him, but he could throw for 45 and still lead the league. The AFC east won’t be a cakewalk as the Chargers are a tough team and Denver and Oakland won’t be as bad as they were last year.
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s still Phillip Rivers’ team and just once Chargers’ fans would like to know what this team could do if they could stay healthy. Sorry, this probably isn’t the year you find out either. LT Russell Okung starts the year injured and the team lost starting safety Derwin James for 3-4 months after foot surgery. The team is also starting the season without holdout RB Melvin Gordon as he is angling for a new contract which he has no real leverage to get. The team seems fine running out Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson at RB and they have survived without Gordon before. Gordon’s penchant for missing time with injuries is not helping his cause in getting a new contract. The team still has #1 WR Keenan Allen and last season former first-round pick WR Mike Williams started to really show some progress. TE Hunter Henry returns after missing all of last season and that’s good news because Antonio Gates can’t play forever. The offensive line still has questions. With Okung out, their lack of depth is even more evident. They aren’t exactly teeming with great offensive linemen and they could really use a breakout year from a guy like Forrest Lamp who hasn’t been healthy enough to live up to his draft billing.
On defense the team is happy to get back a healthy Joey Bosa who missed a lot of last season and only had 4 sacks. He teams with Melvin Ingram to create a great pass rushing duo when healthy. The d-line depth took a hit in off season and DT Brandon Mebane is aging so the team hopes rookie Jerry Tillery can contribute. The defense isn’t great at LB but they get by. The secondary has talent all over with CB Casey Hayward and nickel back Desmond King being two of the best in the game at their respective positions. Losing Derwin James is going to be a killer though. He may be listed as a safety but really, he’s a defensive chess piece that can be moved all over the field by defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Veteran Adrian Phillips has to step up now and the team may have to rely more on King to pick up some of the slack. Rookie Nasir Adderley is a talented guy they drafted in the second round out of Delaware. The team may look to him to really step up too but he’s making a leap in competition coming from a small school like Delaware.
Anthony Lynn has done a nice job in his time with the Chargers and it hasn’t been easy because this team always seems to have injuries to key personnel. His coaching staff is led by coordinators Ken Whisenhunt and Gus Bradley so they won’t be outcoached by anyone. The James injury is a killer to that defense, the kid was an All-Pro as a rookie. Okung isn’t the greatest OT around but he’s far better than anyone else they have to man the position. Melvin Gordon’s absence can be mitigated but he’s pretty good and they will miss him a least a little. These issues likely put the team just slightly behind the Chiefs in the division but they are still a very likely playoff team.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos made a few of major moves this off season that should highly impact the franchise. The biggest and most obvious move was trading for Joe Flacco from the Ravens. The team has had a revolving door at QB since Peyton Manning’s retirement and while Flacco isn’t the most exciting option he does stabilize the position. Flacco has had a steady career sandwiched around one great playoff run that helped Baltimore win the Super Bowl. He won’t be the next Manning but he’s better than Trevor Simien. Last season the Broncos offense was mostly made up of undrafted rookie RB Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay was a fantastic find but they hope RB Royce Freeman can give them a nice duo with Lindsay in the backfield and take the pressure off of Flacco. WR Courtland Sutton had some good games after Demaryius Thomas was traded so they hope he can build on that. Sutton will be more effective if Emmanuel Sanders can return from his injury that wrecked last season for him. The Broncos invested their 1st round pick in TE Noah Fant and that was a smart investment because while Joe Flacco isn’t the sexiest choice as a new QB he’s always loved getting the ball to his TEs. The offensive line struggled last year and this season they imported Ja’Wuan James at RT and drafted Dalton Risner at LG and they are hoping new o-line coach Mike Munchak can work some magic and save LT Garrett Bolles from being a complete bust. If the line can hold up this offense has a chance to be effective.
The defense still has plenty of talent and it’s still built around OLB Von Miller and his second-year running mate Bradley Chubb. However, the biggest addition wasn’t on the field it was on the sideline where Vic Fangio takes over as the head coach and brings his incredible defensive mind to this team. Giving a guy like Fangio players like Miller and Chubb to work with is almost unfair. The Bears defense under Fangio for the past several seasons has been fantastic and when he got Khalil Mack last year, they were downright nasty. Fangio unleashing Miller and Chubb is going to keep this team in a lot of games. The defensive line isn’t sexy but they are effective. At ILB, Josey Jewell takes over for the departed Brandon Marshall and he and Todd Davis will be asked to do a lot in Fangio’s scheme. The secondary replaced Bradley Roby with Kareem Jackson, Jackson isn’t flashy but he’s versatile and that will go a long way in the new defense too.
Fangio is a very, very long-time assistant at the NFL level and he’s one of the best defensive minds in the game. He waited a long time to get his opportunity as a head coach and while this team is still a little short on talent compared to the Chiefs and the Chargers they won’t be outcoached. Fangio brought in Rich Scangarello from San Francisco to run his offense so there will be a return to a familiar Shanahan style offense in Denver. The biggest addition could very well be Mike Munchak as the offensive line coach. He interviewed for the head job but when Fangio got it instead Munchak was one of his first hires. The offensive line has been a problem for a few years and Munchak is one of the best in the business, if anyone can fix it, it’s him. Denver still has a little bit to go on this reboot but they won’t be an easy out for the Chiefs or the Chargers.
Oakland Raiders
After the debacle that was Jon Gruden’s first season back on the sidelines the Raiders have made some major changes. The skill positions around Derek Carr are completely overhauled and if Carr can’t get this offense moving now he’ll be looking for a new job next year. WR Antonio Brown was the big name but Tyrell Williams is a fantastic addition too and a perfect complement to Brown. Even the backups are changing at WR with JJ Nelson and Hunter Renfrow around. Marshawn Lynch is out at RB with rookie Josh Jacobs ready to take the reins. Jacobs is a playmaker and Gruden should use him extensively. They also brought in two big additions to the offensive line in OT Trent Brown and OG Richie Incognito. Brown had a great year for the Patriots last season and Incognito is looking for redemption after his previous transgressions. If the offensive scheme is from this decade and not the 90’s there is no reason this offense shouldn’t put up points.
The defense was pretty bad last season and the team is taking some chances hoping for a payoff. They drafted DE Clelin Ferrell #4 overall and most people saw that as a reach (because it was). Ferrell is going to be a starter but that’s as much of an indictment of the rest of the DE position than anything. Ferrell is a solid player but he was a little over drafted. The team needed a lot of help at LB and they signed Brandon Marshall, who’s a solid if unspectacular, and then they cut him. That’s not a good sign. They also signed Vontaze Burfict who is a wildcard, and not in a good way. Burfict has numerous injury issues and he’s more likely to get fined and suspended for illegal hits than to actually contribute to the defense. The team signed S Lamarcus Joyner and CB Nevin Lawson and drafted S Jonathan Abram which should tell you how they felt about their secondary. All three should find significant roles on the defense and they should be upgrades over last year’s guys.
Jon Gruden’s big off the field move was replacing GM Reggie McKenzie with former NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock. Mayock knows football but he has a certain type of player he’s looking for and I’m not sure it’s the best for today’s NFL. Gruden is calling the shots but he’s taking Mayock’s advice for sure. The biggest on the field move was trading for Antonio Brown. So far, it’s been a circus. Antonio Brown got frostbite because he didn’t prepare properly for cryotherapy and he’s had a dispute with the NFL over his helmet. They haven’t even played a game yet and he’s sucking all the oxygen out of the room. The team needs him to get his helmet on straight (literally) and play up to his considerable talent. He will make Derek Carr a far better QB if he can just play football and forget all the other stuff. This team still lacks playmakers on defense and they play in a tough division so they will finish fourth but they will make it harder on the other teams than they did last year.
The Hott Read 