Chicago Bears
The Bears ran away with the division last year so it’s completely understandable that they basically are standing pat with last season’s starters, there are a few notable exceptions. On offense, they will count on the continued maturation and development of QB Mitchell Trubisky under the tutelage of head coach Matt Nagy to take them up a notch. Trubisky isn’t asked to carry the offense just keep things moving and get the ball to the playmakers. The team has a number of good playmakers in WRs Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller, TE Trey Burton and RB Tarik Cohen. The one significant change came when the team traded RB Jordan Howard to Philadelphia in the off season. They signed Mike Davis and drafted David Montgomery to be the complements to Cohen in the backfield. Cohen is an offensive weapon that is best used in a variety of ways and not as a every down runner. Davis had a good year in Seattle last season but I look for Montgomery to stake his claim to the job of doing the heavy lifting for the offense. Montgomery is a talented back and will be a little more dynamic and versatile in the offense, more so than Howard was last year. The offensive line will start the same five but there is one change. Cody Whitehair and James Daniels will switch positions as Daniels moves over to the center spot while Whitehair will man left guard. This switch is intended to put both players in spots they will be more comfortable and it should help the group overall. LT Charles Leno Jr, RG Kyle Long and RT Bobby Massie fill out the unit that plays better than the sum of its parts. This unit isn’t going to be confused for the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs but the offense is more than enough to win the division.
The Bears defense is what sets it apart from the rest of the division and what gives this team a chance to make noise in the playoffs. The trade last season for Khalil Mack was the final piece to making this unit one of the best in the NFL. There are a couple of subtle changes in personnel on the field, the most noteworthy being new safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. He comes over from Washington after being traded there last year by Green Bay. Clearly, he’s familiar with this division after his time in Green Bay and my guess is, he’ll be motivated to show the Packers they shouldn’t have traded him. The real concern is the loss of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who left to become the Broncos head coach. He’s replaced by Chuck Pagano. Fangio certainly knew how best to use his personnel but Pagano has been a successful defensive coordinator before too. The team has talent at all levels of the defense. DL Akiem Hicks, edge rushers Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd, inside LB Roquan Smith, safety Eddie Jackson and CB Kyle Fuller are all terrific defenders. The transition to Pagano may slow them a bit to start the year but I fully expect this to be one of the best units in the league again.
Head Coach Matt Nagy won 12 games and the division in his first season as a head coach. He returns his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich which should really help Mitchell Trubisky’s development. The change from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano will take a little time to settle but Pagano runs the same type of attacking 3-4 defense Fangio was known for so the concepts shouldn’t be hard for the players to pick up. Chicago walked away with the division last season and while I think their competition will be tougher, I still see the Bears winning this division.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were bad last season. There were problems all over the place. The team had a number of significant injuries and the working relationship between QB Aaron Rodgers and then head coach Mike McCarthy was clearly broken. A team with this much talent and Aaron Rodgers at QB shouldn’t be this bad and I expect them to be much better this year. The unimaginative offense of McCarthy is gone and the team’s inability to recognize the value of a good RB is hopefully over. It took the team far too long last season to see the value in RB Aaron Jones and once they did it was too late to save the season. Matt LaFleur comes in after one season as the Titans offensive coordinator to take over as head coach. His career in Green Bay will be defined by his relationship with Aaron Rodgers. The team has a legitimate #1 WR in Devante Adams but they let Randall Cobb go in free agency so the position of #2 WR is up for grabs. Marques Valdez-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and J’Mon Moore will all take a shot at being Adams partner. Geronimo Allison is likely to be the slot WR but the team needs another weapon outside. Jimmy Graham and Mercedes Lewis hold down the TE spot but rookie Jace Sternberger could become a valuable weapon in the passing game. The offensive line has serious talent especially at OT but they need everyone to stay healthy, that’s been the issue of the past few years.
In contrast to the offense the defense kept their coordinator as LaFleur decided to keep Mike Pettine but they changed out some important pieces on the field. OLBs Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are gone, replaced by free agents Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. On the eve of training camp, the team cut DL Mike Daniels, a former Pro Bowler, in a cap saving move. At safety free agent Adrian Amos comes in and the team drafted Darnell Savage Jr in the first round and he will have a shot at the other job. The team also drafted DL Rashan Gary in round one and all these moves were made with the purpose of getting younger and giving Pettine some more athleticism to work with. I think overall this defense will be improved. While some of the guys they let go were excellent players in their prime they are mostly past their primes now. These guys fit Pettine’s scheme and while I’m not a huge fan of Gary or Savage they do bring athleticism the team has been lacking.
I see the Packers bouncing back this season as long as they can be healthier than they were last year. The youth movement on defense should help them stay fresh and avoid injury, they probably should have opted for more of that on the offensive line. Keeping Rodgers free and clear to run the offense would help a lot. LaFleur comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, hence the reason he got the job, but he also ran the offense in Tennessee last year where he relied heavily on the run. He would be wise not to forget about using Aaron Jones to keep teams honest and allow Rodgers to have a complete offense around him. I think the Packers will be better than the Vikings by just a little bit but not quite as good as the Bears.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings offense is based around WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Both players had over 100 catches each and over 1000 yards a piece. QB Kirk Cousins had a good statistical year and the passing game is fine with Cousins, Thielen, Diggs and TE Kyle Rudolph. The running game is a different story. Dalvin Cook has simply been unable to stay healthy and last season was no exception. Latavius Murray stepped but he’s moved on. The team desperately needs Cook to stay on the field, he has great skill, it’s his availability that’s an issue. The offensive line was once again an issue and the interior of the line was especially questionable. The team drafted center Garrett Bradbury and they plan on installing him in the pivot. The hope is that Bradbury at center allows them to move Pat Elflein to guard and that should improve two positions. They’re still hoping Brian O’Neill can provide some consistency at RT also. Kyle Rudolph almost got traded this off season but instead he inked an extension. The hope is his consistency continues while rookie Irv Smith Jr. can be the dynamic receiver at TE. Kirk Cousins can stuff a stat sheet but QBs are judged by their teams win/loss record and 8-7-1 isn’t getting it done for a guy making as much money as Cousins.
The defense took a pretty dramatic step backwards last season from the sensational year they had two seasons ago. The personnel is still there to be excellent as DE Danielle Hunter, LB Anthony Barr, S Harrison Smith and CB Xavier Rhodes are some of the best at their respective positions. Outside of Hunter the rest of the defensive line was a bit disappointing and that seemed to have an effect on the rest of the defense as a whole. There is plenty of talent with guys like MLB Eric Kendricks, CB Trae Waynes and DT Linval Joseph all capable of terrific play. The one guy that struggled last year was DE Everson Griffin, he had some serious personal issues and the team is hoping he’s ready to get back on track. If the defense can return to being closer to what they were two years ago the team can compete in the NFC for a playoff spot.
Head coach Mike Zimmer has a lot of goodwill built up after the team was so good two years ago but that will dissipate quickly if this team hovers around .500 with an $84 million QB and as much talent as the team has. The offense is in the hands of Kevin Stefanski after he took over during last season. The team also brought in Gary Kubiak from Denver to “advise” them on that side of the ball. If Kubiak can get the running game going that would help a lot. Although he’s not a magician so I’m not sure he can cure Dalvin Cook’s inability to stay healthy.
Detroit Lions
Matt Patricia begins his second season as the Lions head coach and he’s turning the offense over to Derrell Bevell. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but it is pretty much what the Lions do, they hire new offensive coaches every couple of years. Bevell replaces Jim Bob Cooter who replaced Joe Lombardi who replaced…ah you get the picture. QB Matthew Stafford is the one constant on the team and he always put up good stats. Stafford has never played with a great RB and while Kerryon Johnson is better than most RBs Stafford has played alongside, he struggles with injury so he’s inconsistent. Stafford has Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and the newly signed Danny Amendola to throw to but his new favorite target just might be rookie TE TJ Hockenson. Hockenson is turning heads in the training camp early and he will almost certainly become a Stafford favorite in the red zone and on third down. The offensive line was better last season and some stability goes a long way when it comes to how an offensive line performs. If the Lions can find a running game, they will be better, they just won’t be great.
Matt Patricia is a defensive coach and he has been stacking defensive linemen all over for this team. Last year they traded for DT Damon Harrison to go with A’Shawn Robinson. In the off season they signed DE Trey Flowers and then this summer they signed DT Mike Daniels. Patricia knows the value of a deep defensive line and while none of these guys are 15 sack type players, they will all be valuable pieces. The LBs aren’t great; Devon Kennard, Jarrad Davis and Christian Jones aren’t Hall of Famers but they will be better with more consistent play in front of them. CB Darius Slay is one of the more underappreciated players in the NFL. He doesn’t always get mentioned with the best CBs in the game but he’s excellent. The team needs to get him more help, Jalen Tabor isn’t great starting opposite him. The team did sign free agent Justin Coleman to be the nickel back, that’s a step in the right direction. Quandre Diggs is a solid find at safety but Miles Killebrew is a replacement level player. I really like their mid-round draft pick Amani Oruwariye out of Penn St. he could be a real find.
I think Patricia is a good coach and he seems to be on the same page as GM Bob Quinn so that’s a solid start for the team. Derrell Bevell isn’t an inspired choice as an offensive coordinator but they need some stability there. The team needs to commit to fining a running game if they want to get better in the long run. The defense is making strides but this team plays in a tough division so I don’t expect much out of them. Hockenson is a dark horse for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
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