AFC South Draft Review
The Texans won the division last year but the Colts will be nipping at their heels. The Colts had a better draft and a better off season so they may have made up the difference. Jacksonville is hoping Nick Foles can lead their offense to get them back into contention. The Titans are hoping for a big leap from Marcus Mariota and if they don’t get it, they will be a middling team again. Mariota has plenty of weapons so he’s out of excuses.
Houston Texans
(23) Tytus Howard OT
(54) Lonnie Johnson CB
(55) Max Scharping OL
(86) Kahale Warring TE
(161) Charles Omenihu DE
(195) Xavier Crawford CB
(220) Cullen Gillaspia RB/FB
Immediate Impact: CB Lonnie Johnson
Jonathan Joseph is 35 and Bradley Roby is on a one-year contract. Johnson has the size and skill to be a fantastic outside CB. The team needs the depth too because Aaron Colvin, their nickel corner, wasn’t very good last year. Johnson will be a starter at some point this season and I think it happens sooner rather than later.
Best Value: Johnson
The team got an eventual starting CB at the #54 pick overall, that’s good value.
Sleeper: DE Charles Omenihu
I wouldn’t want to compare a later round pick with a multiple-time Defensive Player of the Year like JJ Watt but Omenihu is a big DE and Watt is 30 years old. Omenihu isn’t going to be Watt but he could be his eventual replacement and for now he can give Watt a break now and again. He’s a solid player who wasn’t always used well at Texas, he should be a better pro than he was a college player.
Overall Analysis
You’ll see I didn’t include the offensive linemen in any of the above categories, that’s because I can’t figure out what the Texans were doing. They clearly got snaked by Philadelphia when the Eagles moved one spot ahead of them and stole Andre Dillard, but apparently, they lost their minds because Tytus Howard wasn’t a great choice. They need help now and Howard isn’t ready to start right now, he may be better than Julie’n Davenport at LT but not by much. With guys like Jawaan Taylor, Kaleb McGary, Greg Little, Cody Ford, and Dalton Risner still on the board, Howard was a reach. The second offensive lineman they grabbed was Max Scharping, clearly, they didn’t watch him play last season against Iowa. He was destroyed by AJ Epenesa, while that’s not unusual for many guys, it doesn’t bode well for him against NFL talent. TE Kahale Warring is an interesting prospect with some upside, he needs some work but he could pay off in the end. Omenihu is a very good 5th round pick. CB Xavier Crawford could make the roster given the state of the Texans secondary. The last player, RB/FB Cullen Gillaspia is only making this team as a special team’s player.
Indianapolis Colts
(34) Rock Ya-Sin CB
(49) Ben Banogu DE
(59) Parris Campbell WR
(89) Bobby Okereke LB
(109) Khari Willis S
(144) Marvell Tell III S
(164) EJ Speed LB
(199) Gerri Green OLB
(240) Jackson Barton OL
(246) Javon Patterson OL
Immediate Impact: CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Parris Campbell
The Colts defense played surprisingly well last season with Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore actually holding up at CB. However, there isn’t a lot of depth and Ya-Sin can step in and play some nickel and help solidify the secondary. Campbell is a slightly larger version of TY Hilton and Andrew Luck seems to have quite the rapport with Hilton. Campbell is far better than free agent signee Devin Funchess and I think he takes the starting job away from him sooner rather than later.
Best Value: Campbell
They got Campbell at the end of round two and like I said I think he becomes a starter this season. He’s a speed demon and he and Hilton could form a deadly duo.
Sleeper: S Marvell Tell III
Tell passes the eyeball test but he’s inconsistent. If someone on the Colts defensive coaching staff can get consistent effort and heady play out of him, he could be a Pro Bowler, if not he’ll be out of the league in two years. The Colts aren’t exactly stacked at safety so he could find playing time if he gets his head on straight and does what they ask him to do.
Overall Analysis
Ya-Sin and Campbell were rock solid picks. Both will contribute immediately even if they don’t start from day one. Banogu is an undersized pass rusher who will likely be a situational pass rusher this season. The Colts have a number of young pass rushers who are still finding their way, whomever finds their way first will end up sticking around long-term. Bobby Okereke, EJ Speed, and Gerri Green are depth pieces at LB but none are ready to contribute on defense. They need to contribute on special teams if they want to stick around. Khari Willis isn’t the athlete Tell is but he’s got some range and like I said the team isn’t stacked at safety. The two late round offensive linemen, Barton and Patterson, seem like longshots on a team where the offensive line actually played well last year. However, Barton has the size and length you look for in a developmental prospect while Patterson has the college experience edge and could potentially stick around.
Jacksonville Jaguars
(7) Josh Allen DE/OLB
(35) Jawaan Taylor OT
(69) Josh Oliver TE
(98) Quincy Williams LB
(140) Ryquell Armstead RB
(178) Gardner Minshew II QB
(235) Dontavius Russell DT
Immediate Impact: DE Josh Allen, OT Jawaan Taylor
The Jaguars were the luckiest team in the draft and they didn’t overthink it. First, Josh Allen fell to 7th overall, that was insane, he’s arguably the best player in this draft. Then Jawaan Taylor falls to the second round, I had them taking Taylor in round one with the seventh pick they ended up using on Allen. That’s two starters right out of the gate.
Best Value: Taylor
Apparently, the reason Taylor fell was due to some questions about the healthy of his knees. It had to be something like that because the guy has first-round talent. He’ll be an immediate starter at RT for the Jags and while there will be some growing pains, he’s a hell of a steal in round 2.
Sleeper: RB Ryquell Armstead
The Jaguars are setting their team up to have a strong running game and a great defense, the one flaw in the plan may be counting on Leonard Fournette to carry the ground game. He hasn’t been the picture of consistency, they also signed Alfred Blue to back him up, he’s not great either. They have Thomas Rawls but he’s more injury prone than Fournette. Armstead comes from Temple but he’s a big, power back who could really surprise and if he’s the only guy left standing, he might not have a choice but to carry the load. Deep sleeper but I think there’s potential.
Overall Analysis
The team covered their biggest need in free agency with QB Nick Foles so they were able to let the draft come to them, and boy did it ever. I love Josh Allen and he may just end up being the player the Jags hoped they were drafting when they took Dante Fowler Jr. a few years ago. They traded Fowler and now Allen slides in as the chess piece of the front seven. Taylor fills the biggest need on offense at RT and he should excel there. TE Josh Oliver probably won’t dominate but he’ll play as the only other guy they have is Geoff Swaim. LB Quincy Williams was a bit of a reach but he’s just depth for now. Really like the Armstead pick and he could pay dividends. Gardner Minshew is a decent QB prospect but he’s not better than Cody Kessler was, but he is better than third-stringer Tanner Lee. DT Dontavius Russell probably won’t make the team.
Tennessee Titans
(19) Jeffery Simmons DT
(51) AJ Brown WR
(82) Nate Davis OL
(116) Amani Hooker S
(168) D’Andre Walker OLB
(188) David Long Jr. LB
Immediate Impact: WR AJ Brown
WR Tajae Sharpe should really watch out for Brown. Brown can play any of the three WR positions but with Corey Davis at one outside spot and newly signed free agent Adam Humphries in the slot it’s Sharpe’s position that Brown will be gunning for and he’s good enough to take it. He’s one of my favorite WRs in the draft and a dark horse for rookie of the year if he and Mariota connect.
Best Value: S Amani Hooker
Calling Hooker a safety is a bit of an understatement. He can play safety, he can play the slot, he can line up at LB if necessary. For now, he’ll compete with veteran Kenny Vaccaro to be the starting safety alongside Kevin Byard. Hooker could win the job and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised; he has more versatility than Vaccaro. Whether he starts or not he will play a ton and as a fourth-round pick, he will far outplay his draft slot.
Sleeper: OLB D’Andre Walker
The team lost starting OLBs Brian Orakpo (retirement) and Derrick Morgan (free agency) in the off season. Cameron Wake was signed but he’s 37. Harold Landry looks solid but he needs a running mate off the edge. Walker was DE at Georgia but he has OLB size and skills so he could make a run at being the guy opposite Landry for the long haul. I like his skill set and the opportunity he has on this defense.
Overall Analysis
The team took Jeffery Simmons with their first pick and they know he probably won’t give them anything this season as he recovers from a torn ACL. That’s okay because he’s a top 5 talent and they got him 19th overall. They also made up for their first-round pick not likely contributing but hitting on so many others. Brown is a fantastic WR and he will help Marcus Mariota become a better QB, or at least expose the fact he isn’t one if he can’t pull it off. OL Nate Davis is a bit of a reach and I likely would have taken someone who was ready to contribute sooner at OG, he’s a developmental prospect and they need more help inside now. Hooker might be the steal of the draft. His versatility makes him a great matchup player in today’s NFL. Walker was more than worth his draft slot and could be a very nice addition. David Long Jr. is an undisciplined LB who will have to make the team as a special-teamer if he wants to stick around.
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