It used to be that guys would go to the combine, complete an incredible workout and then their draft stock would skyrocket. Well clearly, we have lowered the bar as now all you have to do is show up, get measured at barely over 5’10 and over 200 lbs. and all of the sudden you’re the presumptive #1 pick in the draft, no workout needed. The Kyler Murray hype train is careening out of control and it looks like the Cardinals will pick him first in the draft and trade away last year’s #10 overall pick Josh Rosen. They are still denying it but they have to if they want any leverage in trading away Rosen. I think they are crazy but they kept a GM who fired a coach after one year (with a bad roster constructed by said GM), then they let that GM hire a new head coach who had been fired from his college head coaching job. The Cardinals have a long way to go on their rebuild and given the state of their offensive line it’s not a terrible idea to have a more mobile QB but I fear what happens to mobile QBs happening to Murray. He’s going to get beat up before they fix everything around him and it will end up hurting his career and the Cardinals franchise. It happened to Robert Griffin, it’s happening to Marcus Mariota currently, it might happen to Deshaun Watson and I can clearly see it as the future for Lamar Jackson. These players have some early success because they are hard to prepare for but teams eventually figure them out. Also, their bodies get beaten up due to the physical nature of their playing styles and eventually it catches up to them. There is a reason why pocket passers like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are able to play into their late 30’s and early 40’s, I don’t think any of these guys will be playing that long.
Back to the Murray/Rosen thing. Rosen was my favorite QB in last year’s draft and I don’t really understand the fascination with Murray, he’s a novelty act that I just don’t see being a long lasting starting QB in the NFL. If I were drafting, I’m taking Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock before even considering Murray. However, the Cardinals need to act fast if they want to get any sort of value for Rosen as the QB market is shaking out quickly and they are losing leverage. So far, the Broncos have traded for Joe Flacco, the Redskins have traded for Case Keenum and the Jaguars made a quick move for Nick Foles in free agency. That leaves only the Dolphins really looking for a starting QB this season and all the rumors say they are not planning on getting their future QB this year because they want to wait for next year’s draft when Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm will presumably be available. That really leaves the teams with aging starters to consider trading for Rosen. The Patriots would make sense and Rosen could pair with Josh McDaniels as his coach in the future. The Saints will need to eventually replace Drew Brees and Rosen would work well in Sean Payton’s offense. And the Chargers will have to consider their future after Phillip Rivers.
Other teams that could consider QB changes now are the Raiders (who knows what Gruden is thinking) and the Buccaneers (Bruce Arians may like Jameis Winston but Winston could flame out at any moment). A dark horse team that should consider Rosen is the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota can’t seem to stay healthy and they are going to have to make a decision on his future soon as his rookie contract is running out. Do they really want to pay him a lot of guaranteed money when they can’t guarantee how much he can play? I’m pretty sure the Giants, the Bucs and the Titans aren’t giving up their first round picks this year for Rosen so the Cardinals would have to settle for a second rounder at best from those teams. The real question is can they get the Chargers, Saints or Patriots interested enough to give up their first rounders since those all come late in the first round. I do think their best bet might be the Patriots because Belichick has a penchant for trading for or signing former 1st round picks, he’s never minded trading his first rounder and the Patriots have two second round picks.
Combine Thoughts
- Kyler Murray didn’t work out and yet somehow, he went from mid first round pick to #1 overall. Well, he better hope the Cardinals take him because if they don’t, he is falling to the middle of the first round at best. The Giants look like they are set for Haskins, the Jags are not spending a first-round pick on a QB after signing Foles and I don’t think John Elway is going to take a 5’10 QB (if he pulls the trigger on a QB it will be Drew Lock). Murray has to hope the Dolphins, Redskins or some other mystery team really likes him. The thing about Murray is he fits Kliff Kingsbury’s offense but he really doesn’t fit anyone else’s offense.
- The RB position proved to be as pedestrian as everyone thought at the combine. There is a reason why Alabama’s backup RB Josh Jacobs is considered the best of the bunch and he didn’t even work out. Which RB goes second is quite the mystery as David Montgomery, Damien Harris and a couple of other ones are possibilities. Jacobs may go in round 1 but I wouldn’t bet money on that just yet. There are going to be some solid RBs taken in the middle rounds and they will outperform guys taken ahead of them.
- One RB that actually had a good combine was Penn St.’s Miles Sanders. Being the guy that replaced Saquon Barkley in college set the bar pretty high and Sanders isn’t Barkley but he could end up being the best RB in this class.
- At WR there are a whole bunch of big, tall, powerful and fast guys that looked good; DK Metcalf, N’Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler and AJ Brown along with a number of guys that were insanely fast; Metcalf again, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella and Terry McLaurin. Metcalf was the star of the show with his ridiculous physique along with his sheer size (over 6’3 and 228 lbs.) and blazing speed (4.33). Metcalf’s workout will likely give him an edge over the others but the fact that there isn’t a ton of separation between players in this group means it’s hard to predict which teams will like which players. There also isn’t a no-doubt future star as all of these guys have some question about their game.
- My favorite WRs in this draft are Deebo Samuel and Andy Isabella. Isabella is a small-school prospect out of UMass with blazing speed and a knack for getting open. Samuel is a guy that also has a knack for getting open and he can play all over the field. Out of the bigger WRs I actually like AJ Brown, he was the actual productive WR at Ole Miss. His teammate DK Metcalf got all the hype at the combine but he tends to get hurt a lot and he’s not the most fluid WR. Brown is a natural WR with a more refined game than Metcalf and he’s got plenty of athleticism.
- The TE class is led by the two former Hawkeye teammates TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. Fant did exactly what was expected at the combine, he dominated the physical testing and he showed that he has good hands despite the fact he occasionally dropped an easy pass at Iowa. I still think Hockenson goes first because he’s the better all-around player but both guys are going in the first round.
- The OT group may have had a bit of a change after the combine. Jonah Williams has been at the top of the OT group but he measured in just a little shy of what teams like and then he had a pretty average workout. Williams isn’t a great athlete and that is evident on his film and the combine just confirmed it. Jawaan Taylor did measure in well and he had a good workout. He was a dominant player at times and he may have taken over the top spot at the position. Andre Dillard looked good and showed his length and athleticism. He’s the best pass blocker in the group and he solidified himself as a first rounder. Cody Ford gave teams something to think about as he may be good enough to play RT while he’s also a potential Pro Bowler at OG. Dalton Risner will be a solid addition to any line and he could play almost every position. The one player that really didn’t help himself is Greg Little from Ole Miss. Even though he has the size and length he really didn’t look good in the drills and didn’t show the athleticism teams expected. He may even fall out of the first round. C Garrett Bradbury looked fantastic and he’s very likely to be the first interior lineman to come off the board (not counting Ford). There are a number of teams that need a center and he’s going to be an immediate starter for someone.
- The organizers of the combine finally made the smart decision to split up the Defensive Ends/Outside Linebackers from the Defensive Tackles. This allowed for a better comparison as the edge rusher position has become a lot more fluid and mixing them with the DTs just doesn’t make sense. This draft is particularly deep with edge rushers and DT is quite deep too. It’s possible that the DE/OLB/DT positions could have as many as 16-18 players drafted in the first round, that’s more than half the round.
- DE Nick Bosa and OLB Josh Allen both performed well and they are still the top two edge players in the draft. The real mover was Montez Sweat from Mississippi St. He really performed well in the athletic testing and in the defensive lineman drills. Sweat weighed in heavier than most expected and yet he was still faster and more athletic than almost everyone at the position. Brian Burns was also bigger than expected and also showed great athleticism. The one player who hurt his stock is Jachai Polite. Polite showed up out of shape and didn’t perform well before he said he hurt his hamstring in the 40 and didn’t finish the workout. Teams were not impressed and given the depth at the position he probably falls out of round 1.
- The DT position looks stacked too. Quinnen Williams entered the draft as the top guy here and only solidified himself as a top 5 pick. He showed amazing athleticism and even though he only started for one year his tape is fantastic. The other athletic freak at DT is Michigan’s Rashan Gary. Gary showed why he was such a highly regarded recruit with his athleticism and his versatility. However, the big question with him is why wasn’t he more productive? Gary should have been as dominant of a force as Williams but simply wasn’t. Part of Gary’s issue is that is a bit of a tweener as he’s not exactly a natural fit at DT or DE. If the right coach gets ahold of him and finds a way to harness his talents, they could have a great player. I think he should concentrate on being a DT because quick, athletic DTs are becoming far more useful than DEs that don’t have elite speed.
- The two DTs that didn’t help themselves were Dexter Lawrence and Dre’Mont Jones. Lawrence pulled up lame on his first 40 and that was it for him. He’s a big body so no one was expecting him to run fast but for a guy who ended his season suspended for failing a drug test at Clemson the combine was a chance to change the narrative for him, he missed that opportunity. Jones is an undersized DT but he didn’t really move like one. His numbers weren’t great and with so many players at the position he hurt his stock.
- At LB it was the show of the two Devins, Devin White and Devin Bush. Both showed they are gifted athletes with great speed and they look like naturals at the position. White is the bigger of the two and is likely a top 15 pick. Bush is slightly undersized but he’s a player. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Steelers take a long look because he plays a bit like Ryan Shazier before his injury. Blake Cashman was the only other LB to really stand out and that was because he tested far more athletic than people expected. He was a pretty productive player on the field and his good 40 time (4.50), vertical (37.5 inches) and other drills will get him noticed.
- At CB Greedy Williams looks the part with his size and his speed but it’s the defensive back drills that give him problems. He isn’t very technically sound but it’s hard to discount his physical gifts. Some coach out there is going to believe he can make an elite player out of Williams and I wouldn’t bet against it. I’m not sure who the 2nd best CB is because both Byron Murphy and Deandre Baker have issues. Neither one is very big, they ran nearly identical times and while Murphy looked better at the combine, I prefer Baker on the field. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder here so good luck.
- Two CBs that may go higher than expected are Rock Ya-Sin out of Temple and Justin Layne from Michigan St. Both have good size and ran solid times and both looked good in drills. You could convince me Ya-Sin is the second-best CB behind Williams if you really try.
- At safety things are getting interesting. Alabama’s Deionte Thompson started the process as the top safety but things are looking to change. Part of the reason is Thompson has a wrist injury that is keeping him from working out and when you go back and watch him, he didn’t make a lot of big plays for Alabama. He’ll be a good player for someone but teams are looking for safeties to be playmakers.
- At the combine it was Juan Thornhill stealing the show with some impressive athleticism. Not only did he run 4.42 but his vert was 44 inches and his broad jump was 11’9 and his bench press number of 21 reps is fantastic for a 205 lbs. safety. Thornhill moves up while others move down. Taylor Rapp didn’t run the 40 but he was impressive in other drills so that should confirm his film, he’s good. Amani Hooker ran an unexpected 40 time at 4.48 and showed more athleticism than teams were expecting too. His natural instincts and his versatility should really help his draft stock. There are a lot of safeties and the interesting thing is there are so many different types, it will really be all about what teams are looking for in terms of skillsets.
The combine is becoming more of an event instead of a scouting opportunity and now that guys specifically train for it it’s hard to really judge someone from the results. The most important part is either confirming what you know about a guy (Quinnen Williams is a stud) or opening your eyes to someone so you can go back and really study what they do (EVERYONE should want Amani Hooker on their team, I’m just saying, WATCH THE TAPE). I’m pretty sure three QBs, and only three QBs, are going in the first round (Murray, Haskins and Lock). I’m not sure a RB is going (sorry Mr. Jacobs). Two Hawkeye TEs are going but it could be in either order. The edge rusher/DT combination is going to be half the first round. One bold prediction…as many safeties go in round 1 as CBs. I’m going with Deionte Thompson, Nasir Adderley and Juan Thornhill at safety while only Greedy Williams, either Deandre Baker or Byron Murphy and maybe Rock Ya-Sin. Don’t worry I’ll be wrong by April.
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