Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags defense and running game carried the team to the AFC Championship game last season. One of the best rushing attacks in the game makes life a lot easier for QB Blake Bortles. Bortles is the weak link on the offense but he does just enough to not get replaced. The team seemingly committed to him this off season but in reality, his contract is an easy one to get out of. If he doesn’t better his TD-Int ratio from the 21-13 it was last season they have to consider a new direction. The team is too good otherwise to waste with a bad QB. RB Leonard Fournette was major stabilizing factor in the run game last year and he allows TJ Yeldon to be a more effective change-of-pace back. At WR the team did fine with Marqise Lee leading a young group of Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook when the now departed Allen Robinson was injured for the year. Now Lee is hurt and the team needs newly signed veteran Donte Moncrief to produce and rookie DJ Chark to not play like a rookie. TE Mercedes Lewis was around for a decade but he was never much of a weapon and now he left as a free agent. The team signed Austin Seferian-Jenkins and while he can be a weapon he can also be a headcase, he won’t be the steady influence Lewis was. The offensive line was better than the sum of its parts. LT Cam Robinson, C Brandon Linder, RG AJ Cann and RT Jeremy Parnell all return. The team’s major off season addition was LG Andrew Norwell who should only make the ground game that much better.
The defense finished second in the league last season and if they do better against the run they can be the top unit this year. Their pass defense was #1 and that was due to their fantastic defensive line and excellent secondary. DEs Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are excellent and the team hopes former first round pick Dante Fowler can become a better pass rush specialist. DTs Malik Jackson and Marcell Dareus are both disruptive players and the team hopes a full season from Dareus (he came over in a trade last year) improves them against the run. Perhaps rookie DT Taven Bryan can help in that regard too. At LB the team loses heart and soul Paul Posluszny and while he may have lost a step over the last couple of years his leadership will be missed. Myles Jack has to step up as the leader now and he teams with Telvin Smith to give the Jags two top talents at LB. The other spot is the question mark. Rookie Leon Jacobs is listed as the starter but it’s more likely this team runs out either five defensive linemen (with either Bryan or Fowler on the field) or a fifth defensive back more often than not. The secondary is a major strength with Jalen Ramsey fulfilling his potential and being an All-Pro CB last season and AJ Bouye proving his great free agent year the year before with the Texans was no fluke. SS Barry Church and FS Tayshaun Gipson filled their roles very well last year and return to do the same this season.
In a bit of a stunner former interim head coach Doug Marrone was named the permanent head coach before last season and then led the team to the AFC Championship game. Marrone isn’t an exciting guy but he did well to steady the team last season. Nathaniel Hackett is the offensive coordinator and he has a long history with Marrone. His job now is to get Bortles to not screw this team up, relying on a good run game seems to be the right approach. Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is one of the more unsung coordinators in the game, you don’t hear his name mentioned for head coaching jobs but he leads arguably the best defense in the league. He predates Marrone’s tenure but Marrone was smart enough to keep him around. The Jags still look like the top team in this division and as long as Bortles doesn’t go completely Blake Bortles on the team they should win the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans
The team believes they have franchise QB in Marcus Mariota and they finally made a coaching move that might allow him to fulfill his potential. Even after making the playoffs last year the team decided not to bring back Mike Mularkey and they hired Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel is a defensive guy but he hired Matt LaFleur who was the Rams offensive coordinator to run his offense. Out goes Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” and in comes a modern offense for Mariota. It’s time for him to put up or shut up. The team should still have a smashmouth feel in the running game with an excellent offensive line blocking for new feature back Derrick Henry. Henry finally usurped DeMarco Murray last season and this year the team brought in Dion Lewis from New England to complement Henry this time. They should make an effective duo. At WR LaFleur has to get Mariota and the supremely talented Corey Davis on the same page because Davis brings serious playmaking ability. Rishard Matthews is still an effective veteran but Taywan Taylor has played great in the preseason and may have passed him. At TE Delanie Walker is one of Mariota’s most trusted targets but his aging and youngster Jonnu Smith should start to get more playing time. The offensive line has been very good with LT Taylor Lewan and RT Jack Conklin locking down the edges (assuming Conklin gets back from his ACL injury). C Ben Jones and OGs Quinton Spain and Josh Kline are effective on the inside.
On defense Mike Vrabel brought in former Patriots/Raven defensive coordinator Dean Pees to continue to run the 3-4 defense the team has been using for the past several years. Vrabel and Pees are well versed in the 3-4 and the personnel is a good fit. Jurrell Casey is still the best defensive lineman on the team and DaQuan Jones and newly signed Bennie Logan add a lot of size up front. At OLB the team has veterans Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo and while both are effective neither one is dynamic anymore. That’s why the team drafted Boston College’s Harold Landry, they hope he brings more off the edge. The big loss on defense was ILB Avery Williamson but the team drafted Rashaan Evans in the first round to replace him and line up next to veteran Wesley Woodyard, they should be a good pair. At CB the team signed former Patriot Malcolm Butler just a year after signing another former Patriot Logan Ryan. These two should start which would leave Adoree’ Jackson manning the nickel spot. The Titans signed veteran safety Kenny Vaccaro during training camp and he should replace Kendrick Lewis at SS. FS Kevin Byard had a breakout season last year and makes for an excellent last line of defense.
This team made the playoffs last year and they still replaced their coaching staff, that takes guts. Vrabel is known as a leader but his Xs and Os prowess is underdeveloped at this point. That’s why he hired Matt LaFleur and Dean Pees. LaFleur is a rising star on the offensive side of the ball and he took this job because he gets to really run the offense himself. Pees has a history with Vrabel and is a well-known commodity. If Pees and Vrabel can manufacture a better pass rush the defense can be really good and as long as the offensive line is healthy LaFleur has plenty of talent to work with. I think the Titans just edge out the Texans to finish second behind the Jags, the Texans have far more questions on the offensive line that could undermine their progress.
Houston Texans
The Deshaun Watson hype train is in full effect after his sparkling debut last season. Unfortunately, that season was short-lived after an injury ended his season early. The promise he showed was enormous but his health is also the question. Because of his ability to escape the pocket and the poor offensive line he’ll be playing behind I fear for his safety this season. He is a legitimate weapon both throwing and running the ball but if he takes too many hits it will add up. He has a fantastic weapon in WR DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller returned from injury last year to prove he can be a deep threat. The early retirement of CJ Fiedorowicz due to concussions leaves them without a weapon at the position. RB Lamar Miller is an underappreciated back who did solid work without much blocking in front of him last season. The offensive line is a mess. LT Julie’n Davenport is young, inexperienced and unfortunately the best option they have the position. Seantrel Henderson is set to start at RT and that’s a disaster waiting to happen. Senio Kelemete came over from New Orleans where he has never been a full-time starter in his six-year career. Zach Fulton comes over from Kansas City where he was a starter but he’s solid not great. C Nick Martin missed the last two games last season after ankle surgery, that’s after missing his rookie year with a knee injury. Martin is easily the most talented offensive lineman on the team, if he can just stay healthy. The team has to hope rookie Martinas Rankin can find a spot somewhere because he’s talented but his versatility may mean he doesn’t settle in to just one spot.
The defense was solid last season even though JJ Watt missed the year with an injury. They would have been better if the offense had been more effective without Watson. Watt’s return is huge up front and he teams with NT DJ Reader and DE Chris Covington to make a tough front line. Watt makes plays while the other two free up the linebackers to make plays. OLBs Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus bring pressure off the edge. When Clowney, Mercilus and Watt are all healthy and playing at a high level they are a nightmare for opposing offenses. It would be good for them if that was the case more often. At ILB Bernardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are everywhere cleaning up what those three guys leave behind. Kevin Johnson and Jonathan Joseph return at CB and the team added Aaron Colvin from Jacksonville as the nickel, that’s a good group. There are some changes at safety as former CB Kareem Jackson takes over at SS and Tyrann Mathieu was signed to handle the FS spot. The team also drafted SS Justin Reid and that’s a smart move considering Jackson is 30 and new to the SS position.
Bill O’Brien is entering his fifth season as Texans head coach and he’s hoping he finally has a QB. O’Brien serves as his own offensive coordinator so if things go south with Watson he will have no one to blame but himself. He is turning the defense back over to Romeo Crennel who served as defensive coordinator before he gave way to Mike Vrabel last season and served as Assistant Head Coach. Crennel is back to calling the defense which seems like good news for the unit. I worry the offensive line will be this team’s undoing. A poor offensive line has hurt the development of a QB for this franchise before just ask David Carr. Also, Watson’s running skills may betray him as he tries to do too much when the line breaks down and he could end up being the next RGIII.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts entire season seems to be about Andrew Luck’s return and while it’s pretty amazing to finally see him get back out there this isn’t the same team he was playing with before. A new coaching staff, lots of new offensive players and a defense that looks pretty rough. Getting Luck back out there healthy is a good way to start over but this team has a long way to go. Frank Gore left for Miami (no he’s still not retired he’s playing for the Dolphins), that leaves Marlon Mack as the feature back. Mack has some skills but I’m not sure he’s ready to carry the load but they don’t have much beyond him. WR TY Hilton is probably the happiest to see Luck back out there. While Hilton played well without him he’ll play even better with him. Ryan Grant was signed as free agent to play opposite Hilton and he’s all they have there until someone else steps forward. TE Jack Doyle had his best year last season so he’s become a weapon while Luck has been out. The offensive line needs LT Anthony Costanzo to get healthy, he’s not a Pro Bowler but he’s steady and he’s the best they have. LG Quenton Nelson is a rookie first round draft pick who should solidify that spot for the next decade, he’s a monster and he should make Costanzo’s life easier. The team needs C Ryan Kelly to get healthy and stay that way, if he does they are solid at three positions. The right side of the line is a different story. Veteran Matt Slauson may start at RG or it could be one of the guys who loses the RT battle. Joe Haeg, J’Marcus Webb, Austin Howard, Denzelle Good and rookie Braden Smith are all still vying for the job. That is not a good thing.
The offense isn’t deep but there is some talent, I wish I could say the same for the defense. The front four consists of DE Jabaal Sheard, DE Kemoko Turay, DT Al Woods and DT Denico Autry, that’s not a great start. The LBs are slightly better with Najee Goode, Anthony Walker and Darius Leonard set to start, at least they are still young and can develop. CBs Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore are just holding down the spots until someone better comes along. FS Malik Hooker is talented but he’s coming off a major knee injury that ruined his rookie year. SS Clayton Geathers might be solid too but he’s returning from a neck injury. As things go this defense needs a total overhaul. If there are starters other than a couple of these LBs and the two safeties on this team in three years I would be shocked.
The only thing that slightly overshadowed Andrew Luck’s shoulder rehab this off season it was the coaching change. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels accepted the job right up until the moment he didn’t accept it. The team changed course and hired Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich instead. Reich gets a chance to restart Andrew Luck’s career but this team has so many other holes. The team is changing schemes on defense and going away from Chuck Pagano’s 3-4. Matt Eberflus comes in and he’s going to take his lumps with this unit. New GM Chris Ballard has his work cut out for him reshaping this roster but I expect he will have another high draft pick this year as I don’t see this team having more than a few wins, even with Luck at full strength.
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