New England Patriots
Tom Brady didn’t look like he was 40 years old last season and I have no reason to believe he’ll look like he’s 41 this year. The Patriots offense should keep humming right along as long as Brady is the trigger man. The skill positions are a bit in flux but that has rarely had much effect on the effectiveness of the offense. The team lost RB Dion Lewis in free agency but they return Rex Burkhead and James White, they drafted Sony Michel (who had a great chance to become the starter before he got hurt) and they are taking a flyer on resurrecting Jeremy Hill’s career. Don’t sleep on Hill either, he’s a big back and Belichick’s offense has had luck with Corey Dillon, Antwoine Smith and LeGarrette Blount. The WRs are in flux with Julian Edelman suspended four games, Danny Amendola moving on to Miami and the short-lived tenure of Jordan Matthews. The team will rely on Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and rookie Braxton Berrios (the Wes Welker clone). Luckily for Brady his favorite target, TE Rob Gronkowski, is back to lead the way. The offensive line has to replace stalwart LT Nate Solder who left for the big bucks and bright lights of New York (the Giants, not the Jets). The team traded for Trent Brown from the Raiders on draft weekend and while he’s raw he could be molded by famed offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia into a pretty solid LT. The Patriots hedged their bets by drafting Georgia offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn and then he tore his Achilles. Things are not going well for Georgia Bulldogs drafted by the Patriots. The rest of the offensive line is solid but unspectacular. However, as long as Brady is good to go so is this offense.
The Patriots defense will be in a bit of flux with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia off to Detroit but Belichick will figure it out. They did their usual bargain shopping on the free agent market and made some trades for guys that may have underachieved. The picked up DE Adrian Clayborn to give them a stronger pass rush, if he could line up against the Cowboys backup LT all season long he’d have about 96 sacks this year but that seems unlikely. He will give them more consistency up front though. They traded for two Cleveland Browns (doesn’t seem like a recipe for success but I’m not going to question Belichick). DT Danny Shelton is a massive human being that just didn’t put it together in Cleveland but he’s 24 years old and you can’t teach a guy to be 6’2 335 lbs. They also picked up CB Jason McCourty so now they have both McCourty brothers (Devin is the long-time star FS of the Patriots). Jason isn’t flashy and he’s not young anymore either but he’s solid and he’s a far better choice to start opposite Stephon Gilmore than Eric Rowe. DT Malcolm Brown had a good year last year and LB Kyle Van Noy played pretty well too. Getting LB Don’t’a Hightower back would be a big boost to the leadership and talent on defense. CB Stephon Gilmore and FS Devin McCourty are the backbone of the secondary and they make it tough on every offense they face.
Somehow Bill Belichick convinced Josh McDaniels to turn down the Indianapolis Colts head coaching job after he had already accepted it and if we believe everyone involved they didn’t promise McDaniels he would eventually replace Belichick. I don’t believe that for a second but true or not it’s good news for the Patriots now because Brady keeps his offensive coordinator around. The team did lose long-time defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to Detroit and technically Belichick hasn’t actually named a coordinator to replace him. Belichick can act as his own coordinator and he has gone without a defensive coordinator before, however, it seems like LB coach Brian Flores is the most likely one to help call the defense on gamedays. The Patriots basically win the AFC East every year and as long as Brady and Belichick are still around I’m not picking someone else to win the division. I’m certainly not going to do it when the other three teams QBs are Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold and one of AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen (Buffalo). The Jets just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to backup Drew Brees and he might have been the second best QB in the division.
Miami Dolphins
I’m going to go with the team with the most stable QB situation for the year. Ryan Tannehill is returning from a knee injury but he really has no competition for the starting job. Two years ago, he had a pretty solid year in Adam Gase’s first season as head coach. The Dolphins are hoping the two can get back to building the offense from that point. The team traded Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia last season and then Kenyan Drake actually stepped up and played fairly well down the stretch. They signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to back him up just in case he faulters a bit this year. Keep an eye on late round draft pick RB Kalen Ballage, he was inconsistent in college but he has size and talent. The Dolphins traded their most productive WR Jarvis Landry in the off season to avoid paying him a lot of money. They are hoping DeVante Parker will break out and live up to his lofty 1st round draft slot but they hedged their bets in free agency. They signed Danny Amendola to replace Landry as the slot receiver and they also signed Albert Wilson give them another option. Kenny Stills remains the deep threat and they still have Jakeem Grant, a young and undersized playmaker they hope contributes. Two other youngsters hoping to push the issue at WR are Leonte Carroo and undrafted free agent Isaiah Ford. At TE the team drafted Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe to overhaul the position. It may take the rookies a minute to overtake veterans AJ Derby and Marquis Gray but that should be about all the time it takes. The offensive line is led by LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Ja’Waun James. The interior of the line is in transition as the team signed Josh Sitton and OG and traded for Daniel Kilgore at OC. The other OG position could be Jesse Davis but that is yet to be determined.
The team is hoping two trades they made improve their defensive line overall. They picked up Robert Quinn from the Rams hoping he’ll juice up the pass rush. Last season he was playing out of position as an OLB but he returns to DE hoping to rediscover his game from a few years ago. Playing opposite Cameron Wake should open things up for him too. The team also traded for Akeem Spence from the Lions to replace Ndamukong Suh who was released for salary cap purposes. Spence and Jordan Phillips should make for a stout pair up the middle. Wake and Quinn should be a nice pass rushing duo but they have some help too. William Hayes was brought in from LA and Andre Branch and Charles Harris also return at DE. The LB corps was terrible last season. The return of Raekwon McMillan at MLB should go a long way towards stabilizing things. Kiko Alonso should be solid at strongside LB. Where the team may have really improved is with speedy rookie Jerome Baker taking over on the weakside, he won the job in training camp. Xavien Howard has proven to be a good CB and they were hoping Cordrea Tankersley can step up on the other side but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. Bobby McCain is holding down that spot for new. It’s the safety positions where they hope to make some progress. FS Reshad Jones was very good last season and they hope 1st round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick can become the playmaker opposite him.
The offense took a step back last season with Jay Cutler at QB after Tannehill’s injury sidelined him all season. Gase has to figure out how to get the team going back in the right direction. He started by bringing in a new offensive coordinator in Dowell Loggains. They really need to see if Tannehill is the answer at QB or if it’s time to cut bait and find a new franchise QB. Gase is a bright offensive mind but if the QB can’t do the job it won’t matter. The defense should be better with Quinn, Spence, McMillan, Baker and Fitzpatrick improving each level. The defense was middling last season while the offense was bad. If the defense can get closer to the top 10 and the offense can just be middle of the pack this team should finish a distant second the Patriots in the division but they might compete for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a three-way battle at QB between former career backup to Andy Dalton, AJ McCarron, five INTs in a single half Nathan Peterman, and not ready for primetime rookie Josh Allen. Allen is clearly the long-term plan but his accuracy issues need work before he goes against NFL defenses or it could ruin his confidence before he ever gets going. Peterman stepped in last season to replace Tyrod Taylor and had a disastrous debut with his five INTs in one half before being benched, that doesn’t inspire confidence. McCarron was hoping to cash in this off season and get a starting job somewhere but all of the spots filled up and he took a short-term deal in Buffalo, then they draft Allen so his tenure is guaranteed to be short. Whomever lines up at QB will rely heavily on RB LeSean McCoy assuming he doesn’t get suspended for a domestic dispute charge that hasn’t gone anywhere so far. The team traded for WR Kelvin Benjamin last year from the Panthers, he spent some time this preseason lamenting having to play with Cam Newton previously because he thinks Newton is an inaccurate QB. Wait until he sees Allen throw some more. Benjamin will pair with Zay Jones or the newly acquired Corey Coleman (don’t count too much on a Browns castoff WR). Even with question marks at QB and WR the biggest concern on offense is the offensive line. The team traded LT Cordy Glenn in the off season and are counting on Dion Dawkins to fill the void, that’s asking a lot of a guy that should probably be a guard. The rest of the line is even more suspect. They would be better off waiting on playing Allen until they get him some real protection up front, let the other two QBs take the beating this season.
The defense was almost as bad as the offense last season. The line gets an upgrade with the signing of DT Star Lotulelei but they better hope third-year man Shaq Lawson gets healthy and contributes at DE because Trent Murphy isn’t the answer opposite Jerry Hughes. The LB corps lost its most productive player in MLB Preston Brown. Brown wasn’t flashy but he was solid as a rock for this team. Rookie Tremaine Edmunds steps in for Brown and he will flash quite often but he’s a rookie so his consistency may not match Brown just yet. He has a chance to be a transcendent talent but he’s still young so give him some time. Matt Milano is another young guy but without the upside of Edmunds. Both of them will rely on old warhorse Lorenzo Alexander, the 35-year old has been around the block a few times. The secondary is probably the strongest unit on the defense with CB Tre’Davious White coming off a very good rookie year, the signing of veteran CB Vontae Davis to play opposite White and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer a solid pair at safety. Hyde and Poyer both had 5 INTs a piece last season and Hyde was actually selected to the Pro Bowl.
The defense could improve in its second year under head coach Sean McDermott but the offense is likely to take a step back without the steady hand of Tyrod Taylor. The offense will be overly reliant on LeSean McCoy and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will be looking to find ways to make the passing game more effective. The Bills and Jets seem destine to fight it out for the bottom of the division and I’m only giving the Bills a slight advantage because as much as I don’t like their offensive line the Jets’ line is even worse. I also think the Bills defense has a little more potential to bail them out a few times this year, especially that opportunistic secondary.
New York Jets
The Jets have the steady presence of Josh McCown in the QB room but Sam Darnold is going to win the starting job out of training camp. He’s looked legit and the team just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints to clear the deck for Darnold. Darnold is the shining hope for this team and McCown is the perfect backup for him. The team signed Isaiah Crowell to be their lead back and while he’s not going to set the world on fire he’s a solid starter. Bilal Powell makes a nice complement to Crowell. WR is a bit of a crapshoot as Robby Anderson proved to be a find last year but he has off the field issues that could end up keeping him off the field. Jermaine Kearse is steady but unspectacular. Terrell Pryor comes in coming off a disappointing season in Washington and they shouldn’t expect much from him. The team is trying to figure out what it has at TE, it may not be much. The offensive line is where the offense may really fall apart. Kelvin Beachum is slated to start at LT but he’s nursing an injury and he’s not exactly stellar to begin with. C Spencer Long was signed from the Redskins but he’s coming off an injury too. LG James Carpenter, RG Brian Winters and RT Brandon Shell are essentially middling veterans at this point. The team has to hope this group becomes more than the sum of its individual parts but that seems unlikely.
The defense has some talent to work with at each level but is missing some key ingredients to become good. DE Leonard Williams is a fantastic player but the once formidable defensive line of the Jets has lost its luster. NT Steve McClendon is fine but he’s 32 so he could slow down at any moment. They are hoping rookie DE Nathan Sheppard from Fort Hays State can make the leap up and be an effective player, that’s asking a lot. Their ILB duo of Darron Lee and free agent Avery Williamson should be pretty good but this is a 3-4 defense that doesn’t have effective pass rushers at OLB. That’s not how you want to build a 3-4 defense. Listed starters Jordan Jenkins and Josh Martin had 4.5 sacks last year…total…together. If they can’t find a pass rush that’s going to make for a long year for their secondary. CB Trumaine Johnson was brought in to pair with Morris Claiborne and while they make a solid pair they aren’t frightening anyone. The safety duo of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye had a decent rookie year together last year but this team needs them to make major progress as playmakers because the CB group isn’t going to be doing that.
Todd Bowles is a good coach and I applaud the Jets organization for not throwing in the towel on him after a couple of tough seasons when things weren’t going their way. He made some staff changes and he brought in Jeremy Bates to be his new offensive coordinator. I’m not sure how much patience the ownership/front office group still has but now that the team has a rookie QB to build around they will want to see progress on the offensive side of the ball. This team will struggle with a poor offensive line blocking upfront and on defense a nearly non-existent pass rush is a killer. Luckily for them, other than New England, the rest of the division is hardly terrifying. They could be better than the Bills and/or the Dolphins or they could go 3-13. This team has a ways to go to rebuild but Sam Darnold is now the foundation they need to build around.
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