Los Angeles Chargers
I am tentatively giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt in this division but that might change if their injury issues pile up again. It’s already started in the secondary with Jason Verrett out for the year with Achilles injury and Trevon Williams having a leg issue. The offense has the passing game down as long as Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen stay healthy. TE Hunter Henry is also out for the year and while they let Antonio Gates go in the off season he’s still available and if no one steps up during camp they may bring in old reliable for one more encore. Where this team needs work is it’s rushing attack. They were just under 100 yards per game and when you have a talent like Melvin Gordon leading the way that’s unacceptable. The offensive line struggled last season especially on the inside. The team signed veteran center Mike Pouncey and he should stabilize a position that has been unstable for far too long. The return of Forrest Lamp who missed his rookie year last year with an injury should solidify the interior of the line. Russell Okung is okay at LT and Dan Feeney should be better at LG so the real weak link is RT Joe Barksdale, they will try to get by for another year with him because they have no one to replace him right now.
The defense was fantastic against the pass last season and absolutely dreadful versus the run. DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram bring the heat while the secondary is outstanding. The LB corps is well below average hence the reason they can’t stop the run. Getting Denzel Perryman healthy for the season would help but it may be up to a couple of rookies to improve the LB corps. Uchenna Nwosu can be a pass rush specialist but because of his size he’s going to have to play as a LB. Kyzir White was a safety in college but he’s going to line up as an undersized LB for the Chargers. His speed and downhill tackling should help against ball carriers. The real help should come in the form of rookie safety Derwin James. He will be all over the field and he can bring some pop against the run too. With Jason Verrett out for the year again and Trevon Williams hurt too Desmond King is going to get some playing time at CB opposite Casey Hayward. The team needs him to step up to continue their top notch secondary play.
This team hasn’t had the best off season with both Jason Verrett and Hunter Henry going down for the year. However, they were good on defense without Verrett last year against the pass so the should be fine. Henry has a lot of potential and they were hoping he would live up to it but if they guys they have don’t cut it Antonio Gates is just a phone call away. I think they get better this year if the offensive line stays healthy and with the additions of Pouncey and Lamp. Melvin Gordon should find more running room with those two paving the way up the middle. Anthony Lynn did a nice job in his first year as head coach of this team and he has two fantastic coordinators in Ken Whisenhunt (offense) and Gus Bradley (defense). The division is in a bit of flux with Denver having a new QB and not a great year under Vance Joseph, Kansas City breaking in Patrick Mahomes with a suspect defense and Oakland having Jon Gruden hoping it’s 1997 again, only it’s 2018. I’m giving the division to the Chargers.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos traded away Trevor Simien and signed Case Keenum to be their new QB. That looks like quite the upgrade going off last year’s performance but Keenum isn’t exactly a proven commodity. The team let CJ Anderson go and rookie Royce Freeman looks like the guy at RB. Freeman is outperforming Devontae Booker in the preseason even if Vance Joseph is having a hard time recognizing it. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have had a couple of down years and while a lot of that can be traced to poor QB play there is no denying both guys are getting older. They have unproven players at TE in Jeff Heuerman and Jake Butt. The offensive line imported Jared Veldheer to replace Menelik Watson at RT and while it’s probably an upgrade Veldheer isn’t exactly a world beater. The rest of the line is average at best.
The Broncos defense continues to be top notch and with the addition of 1st round pick Bradley Chubb their pass rush should be fantastic. CB Bradley Roby should step in just fine for Aqib Talib and Chris Harris is one of the best CBs in the league no one talks about. The line isn’t spectacular but they hold their own. At ILB Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis are veterans who will be pushed by rookie Josey Jewell. The scheme the Broncos run is built around the pass rush of Von Miller and it will continue that way except now he has Chubb to clean up on the other side. This defense is aging so the window won’t be open for long, they are hoping the offense can carry their water otherwise it will be another disappointing year.
For me this team takes a hit because of the coaching staff. Vance Joseph wasn’t great last year in his first year as the head coach. He has hired Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator and while Musgrave has had success before he seems to bounce around a lot and never really stays more than 2-3 year anywhere. This concerns me simply because I wonder why he either feels the need to move on or is he wearing out his welcome. The team needs a steady hand on offense as Keenum takes the reigns behind a suspect offensive line and an aging WR duo. The team is hoping their draft class on offense of RB Royce Freeman, WR Courtland Sutton and WR DaeSean Hamilton can give a little life to the unit. The team just feels a bit unsettled so I think they fall behind the Chargers this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
The big move is going from the consistent veteran QB Alex Smith to the high risk/high reward of 2nd year man Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes started one game last season and while his physical talents are unquestionable the question is can he hold up all season when teams are game planning against him. He has the benefit of having Kareem Hunt at RB, Travis Kelce at TE and Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins at WR. Hunt started out hot last year and slowed down over the second half of the season as teams focused on stopping him. With Mahomes deep arm and Hill and Watkins at WR the hope is Hunt finds more running room. Kelce is one of the most dangerous TEs in the league and Mahomes would be wise to rely on him in critical situations. Sammy Watkins was the big off season signing for the Chiefs and while I wholeheartedly believe they massively overpaid him he should make them better. Watkins has had trouble staying healthy but he should team with Hill to be a dynamic duo. The offensive line was pretty solid last year if unspectacular. These guys aren’t going to the Pro Bowl but they do fine.
The defense relies pretty heavily on their OLB generating a pass rush and Tamba Hali’s time finally ran out. Justin Houston is the focal point now but he wasn’t great last year. They are hoping Dee Ford can finally get healthy and produce some pressure otherwise the defense might struggle. They traded CB Marcus Peters because they were just tired of putting up with him but that’s a major blow to the secondary. They got Kendall Fuller from Washington in the Alex Smith trade and while he has potential to be a #1 CB he isn’t on Marcus Peters’ level . They signed David Amerson to man the other CB spot and that is basically like hoping a scratch-off lottery ticket pays off big. Eric Berry made a miraculous return in 2016 from cancer and played great, then last year he tore his Achilles and only played in 1 game. They are hoping he has another incredible comeback in him. They let stalwart ILB Derrick Johnson go and they replaced him with free agent Anthony Hitchens. Hitchens should upgrade the interior defense but they are hoping reclamation project Reggie Ragland can be his partner on the inside. I would watch out for rookie Dorian Daniel if Ragland can’t hack it. The defensive line should be steady but that’s all the team really asks of them.
Andy Reid is one of the better coaches in the league and he’s been doing it a long time. This season may test him a bit more than usual. He’s breaking in a first year starting QB in Mahomes along with a first-time offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and a first year QB coach Mike Kafka. That’s a lot of newness for the offense. The defense was good last year statistically but losing leaders like Hali and Johnson and the talent of Marcus Peters is going to set them back. They have to hope Kendall Fuller can be a #1 CB and Eric Berry can return to form or their pass defense is really going to suffer. Without a consistent pass rush, it could get really ugly.
Oakland Raiders
They say you can’t go home again but if someone is willing to give a guy $100 million over 10 years then Jon Gruden is willing to give it a shot. I thought this could work until I heard Gruden talk about taking the game back to 1997 or whatever year he was talking about. I do think Derek Carr is a very good QB and has potential to be great, I think Amari Cooper is a real talent at WR. The offensive line can be very good if Donald Penn settles in at RT and Kolten Miller improves his technique at LT. The problems lie elsewhere. They are counting on Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin at RB, good plan 5 years ago, not so much now. The best back on the team in the preseason has been Chris Warren III, an undrafted free agent who has looked like he belongs. They signed Jordy Nelson, another good idea 5 years ago, and traded for Martavis Bryant, probably never a good idea. Gruden was known as an offensive coach when he was with the Raiders and Bucs before but it’s been 10 years and things have changed in the NFL.
The defense is suspect even at full strength and with Khalil Mack holding out they are basically screwed. DTs Eddie Vanderdoes and Justin Ellis make a nice pair inside but without Mack generating a pass rush they are useless. For some reason they feel the ghost of Derrick Johnson is the answer at MLB, another idea from 5 years ago perhaps? The defense lacks a playmaker without Mack and counting on someone like Bruce Irvin to become one is foolish. Irvin says he’ll be unleashed under the new coaching staff but he’s never had more than 8 sacks in his 7-year career, that’s enough of a sample size to doubt he’ll ever do much better. They are counting on Gareon Conley to be their #1 CB in his second year after he only played in 2 games as a rookie, that’s asking a lot.
Jon Gruden seems to be building a team meant for 2013 and that’s too bad because GM Reggie McKenzie was on a path to building a solid foundation moving forward. Carr, Mack and Cooper are building blocks. He had put together one of the better offensive lines in the league too. The drafting of LT Kolton Miller would mean more if they weren’t turning his training over to Tom Cable, he of the dreadful Seahawks offensive lines of the past few seasons. Greg Olson returns as Gruden’s offensive coordinator but he doesn’t elicit much excitement. Signing past-their-prime free agents like Jordy Nelson, Doug Martin, Derrick Johnson and Leon Hall is not the way you fill major holes on your team. I think the Gruden experiment is going to blow up in the team’s collective face, the only question is how long will owner Mark Davis let it ride. It’s too bad too because I think McKenzie was on to something.
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