AFC West
The Raiders were one Derek Carr injury away from rolling into the playoffs and being one of the best teams in AFC side of the bracket. Carr is healthy and while the defense is still missing a few key pieces the team has a great defensive player leading the way, Khalil Mack. Kansas City’s offense looked fantastic opening night against the Patriots but I’m not going to overreact either way, the Pats defense looked horrible without Donta Hightower. The Chargers might waste some of the best offensive skill position talent in the NFL behind a suspect offensive line. They have had injury issue after injury issue over the past several years and the one they can’t overcome is if Philip Rivers goes down. There’s a reason why Trevor Siemian was a seventh-round draft pick, he’s limited in what he can really do. He’ll hold down the fort but he isn’t scaring any of the good teams in the AFC. It isn’t a good sign that Paxton Lynch couldn’t beat him out before he went down with an injury. Brock Osweiler to the rescue, okay maybe not.
Oakland Raiders
This was the one team that scared me last year as a Patriots fan, right up until the moment Derek Carr went down for the year. If Carr recaptures his form (and I’m betting he does) this team is going to be very tough. The Raiders added RB Marshawn Lynch and while I don’t think he’ll be the Beast Mode he used to be he will be better and more consistent than their running game was last season. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree give Carr a talented set of WRs to throw to and while TE Jared Cook has always been more of a tease he’s a serious upgrade over their other TEs. The offensive line was very effective last season and while there may be a bit of a shuffle they should be just fine.
The defense is where the question marks are for the Raiders. DE Khalil Mack is not one of the questions. He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and he’ll be looking to add to his trophy collection. He’s the leader of the defense the same way Carr is the leader of the offense. The Raiders are going to need some help from some unknown LBs. Rookie Marquel Lee looks like the leader at MLB while Cory James is slated to start on the weakside. Another rookie, Eddie Vanderdoes, looks to start at DT and that’s good news because they can really use his size and power up the middle. The secondary returns intact (CB David Amerson may miss some time) and they add rookie CB Gareon Conley. The defense will likely be allowed to be very aggressive as the offense will be highly effective.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are built in the image of their coach and QB, Andy Reid and Alex Smith, they aren’t flashy they just get the job done. The team benefitted from a solid season by their offensive line as LT Eric Fisher matured into the player they thought he could be when he was drafted #1 overall and the addition of RT Mitchell Schwartz solidified the edge. The unit blocked well for whatever RB they wanted to play and they will need that this year as Spencer Ware is out for the year and will be replaced by rookie Kareem Hunt. Hunt is a talented player and I really like him. Tyreek Hill was the major playmaker last year for the Chiefs with 12 TDs and he figures to be a favorite target. They need someone like Chris Conley to step up as the other WR since they let Jeremy Maclin go in the off season. TE Travis Kelce was an All-Pro last season and he earned it, he’s Smith’s best security blanket and an absolute matchup nightmare.
Kansas City runs a 3-4 defense and they have the typical workman like defensive linemen for the scheme; Allen Bailey, Chris Jones and Bennie Logan. They have the grizzled veteran ILB Derrick Johnson who just keeps coming back and tackling people. He’s joined by Ramik Wilson and they are flanked by the stars of the 3-4 OLBs Justin Houston and Dee Ford. Ford is replacing the venerable Tamba Hali who is starting the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list. The secondary is led by two All-Pro players in SS Eric Berry and CB Marcus Peters. FS Ron Parker is solid but with CB Steven Nelson placed on injured reserve it will be up to either Terrence Mitchell or Phillip Gaines to step up because no QB in their right mind throws it anywhere near Marcus Peters. The Chiefs will likely be a wildcard team in the AFC.
Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a new head coach in Anthony Lynn but he was smart enough to retain offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt who has a good relationship with QB Phillip Rivers. The Chargers have plenty of talent at the skill positions especially if they can keep their WRs healthy. RB Melvin Gordon and TE Hunter Henry are young guys that are really coming into their own and are valuable weapons for Rivers. If WR Keenan Allen can stay healthy he’s a legitimate #1 WR and they are hoping rookie WR Mike Williams can overcome some back issues and contribute, he has #1 WR potential. Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are good #2 and #3 WRs to have complementing those guys. The Chargers problem on offensive is the same one they have had for a few years now and that’s the offensive line. They have battled many injuries over the past few years and they already have one that really hurts. Rookie Forrest Lamp would have been a starter but he’s out for the year already. I’m not sure new LT Russell Okung is the answer but he’s better than what they have been starting at LT lately. They are still struggling to find a legitimate starting center and their veteran group of linemen; RT Joe Barksdale, LG Matt Slauson and RG Kenny Wiggins leave a lot to be desired. A mediocre offensive line is not what you want when your QB is as stationary as Phillip Rivers. Rivers is a fantastic passer but he’s about as mobile as the Statue of Liberty.
The defense has a new coordinator in Gus Bradley and while he was a bit of a disaster as a head coach in Jacksonville he’s a very good defensive mind. DE Joey Bosa was a star as a rookie last year even after getting a late start and he forms a good front to their 3-4 defense with DT Brandon Mebane and DE Corey Luiget. OLB Melvin Ingram is the star of the LB corps and he and Bosa bring the pressure on the opposing QBs. The rest of the LBs are non-descript but they just need to hold their own. CBs Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett form a talented duo and rookie Desmond King looks to take over as the nickel corner. If the defense can get pressure they could really force some turnovers.
Denver Broncos
Count me as someone with serious doubts about the Denver Broncos this season. They have a new head coach in Vance Joseph, a new offensive coordinator in the Mike McCoy and a new defensive coordinator in Joe Woods. Trevor Siemian may have won the QB competition against Paxton Lynch but that doesn’t give me great confidence in them. Siemian is a placeholder and the more teams see him the more they will figure him out. He was supposed to be holding the spot for Lynch, the former first-round pick, but Lynch can’t seem to take the job away (that’s not a great sign). RB CJ Anderson has had a great year in his career but he also has had a bad year before. His success will be predicated on the improvement of the offensive line. The line play for the Broncos was bad last year and they went out and signed two new starters and drafted one in the first round. Rookie LT Garrett Bolles (the first-rounder) had an uneven preseason and they need him to solidify the LT spot that has been a problem since Ryan Clady’s time in Denver came to an end a few years ago. RT Menelik Watson was a part-time starter in Oakland and OG Ronald Leary comes in from Dallas and while they may be upgrades from last season they are inconsistent players too.
The defense is supposed to be the strength of the Broncos team and they have plenty of talent but they are missing a few key pieces this year. Don’t underestimate the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, he has never been a good head coach but he’s one of the best defensive coordinators in NFL history. The lost DeMarcus Ware to retirement and his replacement is supposed to be Shane Ray but he’s injured. That puts a lot of pressure on Von Miller as the only accomplished pass rusher on the team. Ray was placed on injured reserve with the intention of him coming back halfway through the year but the Broncos could be buried by then. The secondary is still stacked with CBs Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby and safety Darian Stewart but the late release of SS TJ Ward could hurt them out of the gate. I really liked Justin Simmons coming out of college but it’s a tall order replacing Ward’s play and leadership. I think the Broncos struggle early this year and hopefully for them Paxton Lynch gets back soon enough that they can give him a shot at starting to see if he’s their long-term solution at QB.
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