2017 NFL Mock Draft #1

2017 NFL Mock Draft

Not every NFL Draft is created equal and that’s the fundamental misunderstanding for many fans and unfortunately for many fans it’s misunderstood by a lot of NFL front offices.  The NFL has become a passing league so there is a premium on QBs that can throw the ball, OTs that can protect the passer and pass rushers who can disrupt that passing game.  That makes QBs, OTs and pass rushers valuable and that means teams make mistakes when a position is weak.  That’s going to happen this year because two out of those three positions are not very good.  The QB spot is always overvalued and whether it’s Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer or Mitch Trubisky going as the first, second and third QB in the draft I’ll almost guarantee they go too high.  If I’m an NFL GM or Head Coach, you couldn’t pay me enough money to hitch my wagon to any of those three QBs for the future.  The OT position needs juniors Cam Robinson of Alabama or Ryan Ramczyk of Wisconsin to declare for the draft or the position might go undrafted in the first round and neither of those guys are going to be mistaken for Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace.  Pass rushers are where it is at in the draft at both DE and OLB.  DE Myles Garrett and DE/DT Jonathan Allen are the cream of the crop but Derek Barnett, Solomon Thomas, Taco Charlton, DeMarcus Walker, Charles Harris and Carl Lawson at DE along with Tim Williams and Takkarist McKinley at OLB could all be 1^st round picks.  Cornerback is another good position although without the dominant players up top like Garrett and Allen.  A 1^st round case can be made for CBs Marlon Humphrey, Jalen “Teez” Tabor, Desmond King, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson, Adoree’ Jackson, Gareon Conley, Marshon Lattimore and Jourdan Lewis.

If you’re looking for defense in the 2017 draft, you are in luck.  If you’re looking for offense I hope you need a RB.  QB, OT and TE are especially lacking in upper end talent while WR has some top guys but isn’t especially deep.  Mike Williams, John Ross, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis and Dede Westbrook could help some teams out next season at WR everyone else is just a guy.  At RB, the media and pundits love Leonard Fournette, he’s good and all but NFL teams love Dalvin Cook, he could be special.  Christian McCaffrey will be a special weapon for someone but I’m not sure how much of a RB he will be or how much he’ll be used in other ways.  As has become customary at RB there are going to be guys that get drafted in the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th rounds and beyond that become very good NFL players.  D’Onta Foreman, Corey Clement, Jeremy McNichols, Samaje Perine, Wayne Gallman, Brian Hill and may I even say LeShun Daniels could become major contributors to NFL teams over the next several years.

My mock draft is always part prediction, part advice and will likely be completely wrong.  It’s a fun exercise for me and if you’re an NFL fan I hope you enjoy it.

 

1. Cleveland Browns (1-15): Myles Garrett DE/OLB   Texas A&M

The Browns need to figure out their QB situation but drafting one here would be a huge mistake.  Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer and Mitch Trubisky are not changing the fortunes of this team.  Adding a player like Garrett as a pass rusher opposite the recently acquired Jamie Collins (assuming they keep Collins long-term) would go a long way towards fixing the Browns defense.  Garrett is a pass rushing beast and he would have had better numbers this year if he hadn’t played a number of games on a gimpy ankle.  Garrett and Jonathan Allen are the best players in this draft and if the Browns go with Allen here instead you will get no argument from me.  Garrett is a better outside pass rusher while Allen can play all over the line and dominate at each spot.  Either one is a great addition that would make a major difference for the defense.

2. San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Mitch Trubisky QB   North Carolina

I’m not in favor of this choice but I think the 49ers go with an offensive head coach (like Kyle Shanahan) and they completely start over at QB.  Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder are all shown the door and unless they make a move for Mike Glennon in free agency or trade for Jimmy Garoppolo they need someone to take the snap.  Trubisky might be more Shanahan’s style of QB and I think the 49ers will spend big on offensive linemen to protect him.  If they invest in the line and get Carlos Hyde healthy I think Shanahan could build a solid offense around Trubisky and not ask him to do too much too soon.  Expectation should be low next year for whomever is the QB and the new head coach.  Jonathan Allen is the best player here but he’s a little too redundant after the team invested back-to-back 1^st round picks on Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, two very similar players even if they aren’t as good as Allen.

3. Chicago Bears (3-13): Jonathan Allen DL   Alabama

The Bears luck into arguably the best player in the draft.  They have more pressing needs at QB, OT and probably defensive back but there is no way John Fox passes on Allen if he’s still around.  The team needs to move on from Jay Cutler but this team is far from competing for anything meaningful so they could just give Matt Barkley a shot to start next season, if he’s terrible they get another high draft pick to help turn things around.  They need help at OT but this is way too high for Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk and if they blow this pick on Watson or Kizer at QB they will set this franchise back 4-5 more years.  Take the best player in the draft and either go with Barkley or grab a QB later.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Dalvin Cook RB   Florida St.

The Jaguars defense wasn’t too bad this year and with another year for all that young talent to grow together they could be even better.  They would also benefit from Blake Bortles not throwing terrible interceptions that put them in bad situations.  Whether it’s Josh McDaniels or another offensive coach I think the team goes with someone they believe can salvage Bortles as the franchise QB.  In 2015 he had a solid year and while he regressed badly there is still something to work with there.  The o-line could use re-enforcements but most of all they need a running game.  Leonard Fournette is the big name everyone talks about, “he’s the next Adrian Peterson”, hate to break it too you but the league is going in a different direction offensively.  If McDaniels takes this job imagine what he could do with a RB like Dalvin Cook.  Cook is a multi-dimensional player and they could use him like the Patriots use James White and Dion Lewis except he’s also good enough to be the every down back.  Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon just didn’t get it done although they both still have value as roleplaying backs.

5. Tennessee Titans (from LA Rams 4-12): Marlon Humphrey CB   Alabama

The Titans had a winning record this year at 9-7 which is quite a turnaround from last year.  This pick comes courtesy of the trade with the Rams and should really help this team take another step.  Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray have the offense under control and while they could use another top WR there are more pressing needs on defense.  The secondary needs a lot of help and Marlon Humphrey is a big, young and talented CB that could start from day one.  In a division where you have guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson and TY Hilton investing in a top-flight CB would be a wise choice.  There are other very good CBs in this draft but Humphrey probably has the highest ceiling and while it may take him a year or two to mature he’ll get there eventually.

6. New York Jets (5-11): Deshaun Watson QB   Clemson

The Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment is over and the Geno Smith era never got off the ground.  I don’t think Bryce Petty has shown enough for the Jets to think he’s the answer and they obviously don’t have a lot of faith in Christian Hackenberg given the fact they didn’t even give him a shot this year.  Watson has been a dynamic college player and won a lot of games but I’m not sure his game translates to the NFL.  To me he’s a poor man’s RGIII.  Perhaps someone can figure out a way to use him but I think defenses figure him out after a while and he struggles against better defensive schemes in the league.  It’s understandable if the Jets feel they need to take this shot but they would be better off addressing their secondary where they were really bad this year.  Teez Tabor or Marshon Lattimore or a whole host of other CBs would be a nice upgrade for them.

7. San Diego Chargers (5-11): Cam Robinson OT   Alabama

Robinson isn’t the seventh best player in the draft but right now he would be the best OT in the draft and that means something to a team like the Chargers that need help on the line.  The Chargers are a tough team to gauge because of the massive amount of injuries they have suffered the last couple of years.  They need depth for sure but they need to protect the aging and stationary Phillip Rivers and open holes for Melvin Gordon.  Robinson isn’t a great pass blocker and he has work to do there but he is a dominant run blocker so he could help Gordon tremendously.  The starting OT duo of King Dunlop and Joe Barksdale isn’t exactly imposing so Robinson would step in right away.  The Chargers have other issues like safety where a guy like Jamal Adams from LSU or Malik Hooker from Ohio St. might help but protection up front should be a priority.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Leonard Fournette RB   LSU

The Panthers need OT help badly and they could use a CB after letting Josh Norman go and no one would blame them if they grab a pass rushing DE but someone in the top ten always surprises and this is where I think it happens.  Jonathan Stewart has a lot of miles on his legs, is owed a big cap hit next season and he’s never able to stay healthy for very long, that’s a bad combination for a RB.  Fournette would be a nice replacement and they can address the o-line later in the draft.  He’s not my favorite RB in this draft but he’s a very good player.  Jonathan Stewart has always had size and speed when healthy and Fournette could step in right away and they wouldn’t miss a beat.  No one is going to see this one coming but I don’t think anyone saw this team drafting Kelvin Benjamin a couple of years ago when they needed an offensive lineman, or when they took Shaq Thompson instead of a lineman or when they drafted their two stud DTs back-to-back when they needed an offensive lineman, are you sensing the theme yet?

9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1): Reuben Foster ILB   Alabama

Vontaze Burfict can’t seem to stay healthy, Rey Maualuga isn’t getting faster with age and Karlos Dansby can’t play forever so the Bengals need some youth and speed at LB.  Foster is a tone setter and he could change the dynamic of the defense just by showing up.  He hits like a truck and covers plenty of ground.  The Bengals need an infusion of playmaking in the defense and Foster could provide that in spades.  Yes I am well aware that I have four guys from Alabama in the top 9, there’s a reason they are playing for the National title again.

10. Buffalo Bills (7-9): Jalen “Teez” Tabor CB   Florida

The Bills might need a QB if they don’t want to pay Tyrod Taylor a bunch of money to come back but if they keep Anthony Lynn as their head coach it doesn’t make sense to switch QBs now.  They could lose Stephon Gilmore at CB which would create a big hole in their defense.  Tabor could start immediately opposite Ronald Darby and he’s a very good player.  It’s possible they could go with WR Mike Williams from Clemson as they have a bunch of WR free agents this year and Sammy Watkins can seem to stay healthy.  Williams might fill a bigger need but Tabor is the better choice.

11. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Jabrill Peppers LB/S   Michigan

Peppers is a tough player to place simply because he’s not a natural at any one position.  That worked for him at Michigan as they moved him all over the defense playing OLB, S and CB and while he’s the size of an NFL safety that might not be the best use of his talent.  The Saints defense has been atrocious for a few years now so any playmaker on that side of the ball would be a welcome addition.  Peppers could pair with Vonn Bell to be a new safety combo replacing Jairus Byrd and Roman Harper and that might give the Saints some versatility in the secondary that allows them both to make plays.  I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints go with a pass rusher like Derek Barnett at DE or Tim Williams at OLB because they need to generate more pressure.  A CB like Sidney Jones or Desmond King wouldn’t be out of line either.  Basically, this has to be a defensive player.

12. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia 7-9): Jamal Adams SS   LSU

I would advise the Browns to either trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, sign Mike Glennon or give Cody Kessler a shot for the year next year because the QBs aren’t worth it.  They could seriously upgrade their defense by taking Garrett #1 and grabbing a dynamic safety like Adams here.  They need a talent infusion all over the defense so getting a couple of no doubt starters in the top 12 here would be a good plan.  They have blown it before when they had two 1^st round picks (remember the Justin Gilbert/Johnny Manziel year?).  Garrett can pressure the passer and Adams can clean up in the secondary.

13. Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1): DeShone Kizer QB   Notre Dame

I’ve said my peace about the QBs in this draft but there are teams that need QBs and this is a team that needs to make plans for the future.  Carson Palmer just turned 37 at the end of this season and their backup is 32-year-old Drew Stanton, not exactly a long-term solution.  Kizer is a big, strong QB who can wing it and could use a year sitting behind a guy like Palmer and learning.  Head coach Bruce Arians is 64 years old and has had some health issues so I could see he and Palmer coming back for one last go and if their offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin doesn’t get a head coaching job this year he could be in line to replace Arians and have a head start with a young QB.

14. Indianapolis Colts (8-8): Ryan Ramczyk OT   Wisconsin

The Colts defense isn’t very good but this team needs to protect the franchise and that is Andrew Luck.  Ramczyk is a one year starter at Wisconsin who transferred in from a Div. III school and he may not come out but if he does he’s very likely a 1^st round pick.  He isn’t going to be confused for Joe Thomas but he’s a huge upgrade for the Colts at RT for now.  He could play LT at some point but for now he would really improve their line overall and become a very good run blocking RT.  They could go for ILB Zach Cunningham or a number of different CBs but get the o-line fixed first and then worry about the defense.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota 8-8): Mike Williams WR   Clemson

The Eagles need help on the offensive line, LT Jason Peters is closing in on the end of his career, and they could use some secondary help at CB but they invested heavily in Carson Wentz and their WR corps is underwhelming and beat up.  Williams is a true #1 type WR in the NFL and he will become Wentz’s favorite player.  He would make a fantastic complement to Jordan Matthews because Williams is an outside WR while Matthews does his best work in the slot.  Both Matthews and Nelson Agholor ended the season injured so reinforcements are certainly necessary for Wentz to continue his growth.

16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Solomon Thomas DE/OLB   Stanford

The Ravens may run out of pixie dust to sprinkle over Terrell Suggs to keep him going and the magic has already stopped working on Elvis Dumervil who can’t stay healthy.  Their defense relies on a good pass rush and they could take Thomas who is built a bit like Suggs and turn him from a DE to an OLB like they did once upon a time with Suggs.  Thomas is young and has some physical maturing to do but he’s a major talent that would help the Ravens keep their streak of impressive defenses going.

17. Washington Redskins (7-8-1): John Ross WR   Washington

The Redskins have to resign Kirk Cousins or they will set the franchise back several years because there is simply no good alternatives.  DeSean Jackson is a free agent and they may not want to spend the money to keep him but they need Cousins to have a deep threat if they want to keep the offense moving forward.  John Ross is almost always compared to Jackson because of his similar stature and his ability to track the deep ball.  Ross would be a wise and cost effective replacement for Jackson and could build a nice rapport with Cousins.

18. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Corey Davis WR   Western Michigan

I have the Titans addressing their CB need with Marlon Humphrey and they could certainly use more secondary help so another CB like Sidney Jones, Marshon Lattimore or Desmond King isn’t out of the question and a safety like Malik Hooker would be a wise choice too.  However, this team needs a dynamic outside threat at WR to really elevate Marcus Mariota’s game.  Rishard Matthews is a real pro and Tajae Sharpe is a solid possession guy who can move the chains but Davis is an explosive game breaker.  Don’t be fooled because he played at Western Michigan, he broke the receiving yardage record for a career because he’s dynamic.  At 6’3 213 lbs. he’s the type of fast and physical WR you have to have in the NFL today to really get your offense going.  He’s one of my favorite players in the draft class.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): Malik Hooker FS   Ohio St.

The Bucs are probably ahead of schedule with the rebuild and they were technically still alive for a playoff spot going into Week 17.  That is largely due to the maturation of QB Jameis Winston and a defense that played quite well for defensive coordinator Mike Smith.  The defense played above its talent level especially in the secondary, they need a serious upgrade at safety.  Malik Hooker came on strong this year and he third year safety is still growing up but he’s a playmaker in the pass defense and he would be a major upgrade for the Bucs.  The team could look for a little help on the offensive line or find a new running mate for Mike Evans at WR but Hooker is too good to pass up here.

20. Denver Broncos (9-7): Zach Cunningham ILB   Vanderbilt

The Broncos desperately need help on the offensive line so it’s completely possible John Elway makes a trade to move up to get Cam Robinson or Ryan Ramczyk and he really should.  If he stays here he might have to reach and this is where the over drafting of a guy like Roderick Johnson or Garrett Bolles could happen, that would be a mistake.  If they are still picking here Cunningham would be far too valuable to let slide any further.  He’s an excellent LB who could be a long-term solution inside after they let Danny Trevathan walk last year.  The Bronco defense was good but they missed Malik Jackson and Trevathan in the middle of their run defense.  Cunningham isn’t well known to most casual fans because he plays middle linebacker at Vanderbilt, not exactly a powerhouse.  However, he’s going to be a very good pro.

21. Detroit Lions (9-7): Taco Charlton DE   Michigan

The Lions need a DE opposite Ziggy Ansah even if they don’t lose Devin Taylor in free agency.  Another pass rusher is always a good idea and while I technically like Derek Barnett better he’s a bit smaller and I think Charlton fits their need for a bigger DE better.  Charlton is 6’5 272 lbs. so he has fantastic size for the position.  I did not pick him because it’s Detroit and he played at Michigan, that’s just an added bonus.

22. Miami Dolphins (10-6): Derek Barnett DE   Tennessee

The Mario Williams experiment was a total dud and the Dolphins are likely going to make him a cap casualty after the season.  Couple that with the age of Cameron Wake (he was fantastic this year but he’s 34) and the Dolphins need some new blood at DE.  Barnett is a powerfully built edge rusher who understands how to get to the QB.  He isn’t always the flashiest guy but he’s dynamic when it comes to creating havoc for opponents.  This team is probably going to need a new guard to replace Laremy Tunsil who is likely to slide out to LT to replace Brandon Albert but that can wait until later.

23. New York Giants (11-5): Dan Feeney OG   Indiana

The Giants aren’t afraid to take offensive linemen the first round of the draft and they need help for sure.  It would be great if they could get a LT so they could move Erick Flowers to RT but that isn’t happening in this scenario.  They could use an upgrade on the interior and Dan Feeney is a fantastic guard that could really help them both in the running game and the passing game.  The Giants have a history of grabbing pass rushers or defensive tackles but I think they go with Feeney, it’s not a sexy pick but it’s a productive one.

24. Oakland Raiders (12-4): Marshon Lattimore CB   Ohio St.

The Raiders season fell apart when Derek Carr broke his leg but they need to take advantage if they are picking a little higher to get a CB that will help them.  Lattimore is a late rising prospect who has only started this year but his ceiling is quite high.  He is going to pass his more heralded teammate Gareon Conley as a prospect and get picked before him.  The Raiders need help at CB and Lattimore could be a huge addition there and he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

25. Houston Texans (9-7): Raekwon McMillan LB   Ohio St.

The Texans need help on the defensive line with JJ Watt’s wonky back and Vince Wilfork’s advancing age and declining play.  There is no top-notch nose tackle in this draft and the best DT is probably Malik McDowell but his been inconsistent and he’s banged up.  He’s not a fit for interior spot and they can find a better fit later in the draft.  What they can do here is fill in the spot that has been the ghost of Brian Cushing.  Cushing is an excellent player when he’s healthy and not suspended for PEDs but those times are becoming harder to come by lately.  McMillan is an excellent middle backer and would be a nice long-term partner for Bernardrick McKinney.  He would upgrade their run defense up the middle and he’ll play more than Cushing.

26. Green Bay Packers (10-6): Tim Williams OLB   Alabama

The Packers have a number of outside pass rushers coming up on free agency and while I’m sure they can bring Julius Peppers back again he’s almost as old as I am so the end isn’t too far away.  Williams is a pass rushing menace for the Tide and he would surely take some pressure off of Clay Matthews.  Williams is basically a specialist for Alabama and he needs to refine other parts of his game but he has one elite skill and every NFL team needs that one elite skill, even if they already have it they want more of it.  There’s a very distinct chance Williams doesn’t fall this far so if he’s gone the Packers can take advantage of the very deep pool of top pass rushers in this draft and grab a guy like Carl Lawson or Takkarist McKinney or Charles Harris or DeMarcus Walker, okay you get my point.  Good year to need a pass rusher.

27. Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1): Garrett Bolles OT   Utah

If you don’t know who Bolles is don’t feel bad.  I’ve only seen a little bit of him and I can say he’s a solid player that has no business getting drafted in the first round of the draft.  This the point where a team’s desperate need and the dearth of quality players at that position pushes a prospect up the board higher than he should go.  The Seahawks offensive line is simply offensive to offensive lines everywhere.  To say they need offensive line help is the understatement of the decade.  Bolles isn’t the next Walter Jones for the Seahawks but he’s a day one starter at LT because they have no worthy competition for the spot.  If the Seahawks first four draft picks aren’t offensive linemen then I have no idea what they are doing.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Takkarist McKinney OLB   UCLA

Jarvis Jones has not turned out to be the pass rusher the Steelers were hoping for, Bud Dupree’s season was shortened by injury and James Harrison is literally older than I am.  For the first time in quite a while a position other than CB is the top need for the Steelers.  McKinney is a freakish athlete with electric speed off the edge.  He came to UCLA from a JUCO and got a late start last year but he’s made the most of his time on the field.  He would be huge addition for a team that generates it’s pass rush from the OLBs in its 3-4 defensive scheme.

29. Atlanta Falcons (11-5): Malik McDowell   DT   Michigan St.

McDowell didn’t have the greatest year which went right along with Michigan St.’s less than stellar season, okay they sucked.  He is a physical specimen with a high revving motor and the Falcons can afford to take a shot on a guy that’s falling a little bit.  They need better play from their interior defensive line and Dan Quinn likes guys that are versatile and can move inside or out and that fits McDowell perfectly.  The Falcons could use a CB too so it’s possible they grab Sidney Jones or Desmond King to pair with Desmond Trufant.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): DeMarcus Walker DE   Florida St.

The Chiefs run a 3-4 defense and they need DEs and it would help if those guys could get some pressure on the QB so it doesn’t all fall on Justin Houston, Dee Ford and the aging Tamba Hali.  It would be smart to grab an ILB if one of Reuben Foster, Zach Cunningham or Raekwon McMillan falls but if those three are gone they can wait.  Walker isn’t your typical tall, lanky 3-4 DE but he’s a guy with the ability to play inside or out so he could be very good in the Chiefs defense.

31. Dallas Cowboys (13-3): Desmond King CB   Iowa

The Cowboys are going to be getting a little thin in the secondary if they don’t re-sign some guys.  King could be an excellent CB but there are plenty of people in the league that think his ultimate position will end up being safety.  The Cowboys already have Byron Jones at safety and in the pass happy NFL it wouldn’t be the worst idea to have two safeties with CB coverage skills like Jones and King.  King is also a more instinctual player who relies less on athleticism while Jones is a freakish athlete, they could make quite the pair.

32. New England Patriots (13-3): O.J. Howard TE   Alabama

I was all ready to give the Patriots a big, physical WR to complement Julian Edelman and he rest of the runts they use at WR.  Then Bill Belichick did the most Bill Belichick thing he could do and he grabbed Michael Floyd off the waiver wire after the Cardinals dropped him following his DUI arrest.  Floyd is a free agent at the end of the year but he’ll cost virtually nothing because of the DUI and his lack of production this year.  This means next year he’ll catch 75 passes for about 1000 yards from Tom Brady.  The Pats might need a pass rusher if they lose to many of their free agent ones but I think Belichick might hedge his bets on Gronk’s back.  Gronkowski is no sure thing after another injury this year and Martellus Bennett will eventually wear out his welcome, he always does.  O.J. Howard is a fantastic athlete that has been underused at Alabama and he could explode in the Patriots offense either as a complement to Gronk or as his replacement.