Okay, so my work schedule is getting crazier by the day and my Master’s classes are kicking my ass daily so I don’t have a ton of time to write out my thoughts on the NFL season so this is going to be the Quick Hits version.
AFC East
1) New England 2) Miami 3) NY Jets 4) Buffalo
I don’t care if Brady is out for the first four games that still leaves 12 games and they may only need 11 wins to win this division (Brady’s revenge return is going to be scary). I think Adam Gase can get the Dolphins’ offense moving in the right direction but the defense I’m not so sure about over the full season. There is no way Ryan Fitzpatrick can repeat his performance from last season, I mean he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick for heaven’s sake. I like Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo but the injuries are piling up on defense and they need LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins to stay healthy all year, I’ll believe that when I see it.
AFC North
1) Cincinnati 2) Pittsburgh 3) Baltimore 4) Cleveland
The Bengals and Steelers are going to duke it out for this division and I think Cincinnati has just enough to pull it out. I like the Bengals defense a little bit better than the somewhat changing of the guard the Steelers are going through. Baltimore can’t stay healthy and they are counting on Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to not just vanish into dust so that’s not comforting. The Browns are the Browns until they prove otherwise, Hue Jackson is a good coach but he’s not a magician. The Browns just traded uber-bust CB Justin Gilbert to the Steelers, nothing like sabotaging your competition. I’m even more convinced about the Bengals over the Steelers now.
AFC South
1) Jacksonville 2) Houston 3) Indianapolis 4) Tennessee
Yep, I’m on the bandwagon. I think Blake Bortles is going to have a fantastic year and Gus Bradley has many toys to play with on defense. The Jags have rebuilt the right way and their patience with a plan and a coach is about to pay off. There is a lot of skepticism about Brock Osweiler’s big contract in Houston but I think he’s the right trigger man for Bill O’Brien’s offense and there is no looming Peyton Manning shadow. He’s got a very good WR group and Lamar Miller to hand off to, oh and the Texans defense is pretty good. A healthy Andrew Luck makes the Colts good on offense but that defense isn’t very good and looking around the division the offenses look pretty solid so that could be trouble. Tennessee is still in the rebuilding phase but a solid offensive line with two good RBs and Marcus Mariota is a really good place to start. The Titans defense still needs work.
AFC West
1) Oakland 2)Kansas City 3)Denver 4)San Diego
I’m on the Raider bandwagon too. They have also been doing the rebuild the right way and they have their QB in Derek Carr and some really nice pieces on offense. They invested in the line to protect Carr and that helps a lot. Their defense should be salty with Khalil Mack leading the charge. I like what KC has done just being steady and Andy Reid will always have them ready to go. Denver’s vaunted defense took a couple of key hits that I don’t think they adequately replaced (Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan). Certainly Von Miller will dominate but their offense is led by Trevor Simien. The sooner they turn the keys over to Paxton Lynch at QB the better and I’m betting DeVontae Booker takes CJ Anderson’s job before week 6. The Chargers are not off to a great start having rookie Joey Bosa holdout, it’s been quite a while since a rookie held out. They need him on defense and now he’s going to be behind. A healthy offensive line would go a long way to curing their ills on that side of the ball and they play in a division with some fantastic defenses. They need Melvin Gordon to show up too.
NFC East
1) NY Giants 2) Washington 3) Philadelphia 4) Dallas
No offense to Kirk Cousins but when in doubt about a division go with the team with the best QB and in this division that’s Eli Manning. The Giants defense should be greatly improved and if their offensive line gives Manning half a second he can throw it to Odell Beckham a lot. Two names on the Giants to remember; WR Sterling Shepard and DE Owa Odighizuwa, break out players. Cousins has to come back to Earth a little bit and I’m not sure the running game is built to bail them out. I like Doug Pederson but it’s year 1 in Philly and he just pushed all his chips in on Carson Wentz. Bradford was never a great solution and getting a first round pick for him was highway robbery. The Cowboys are going to get a long look at rookie QB Dak Prescott and find out if he’s the QB of the future (and by future I mean right now). He looked good in the preseason but lots of guys have looked good in the preseason before. Oh yeah, and no one has any idea who’s rushing the passer for the Cowboys for at least the first 4 weeks of the year. It’s a pick’em for last place in this division between the two rookie QB led teams, I’m going with the Philly D over Dallas’ D…but just by a little.
NFC North
1) Green Bay 2) Detroit 3) Minnesota 4) Chicago
Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury essentially hands this division to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. It would have been a fun fight to watch between those two teams. The Packers are clearly better on both sides of the ball than the rest of the division now. I’m giving Detroit 2nd place because their offense actually looked solid last year after the coordinator change to Jim Bob Cooter. I mention this only because it’s the only way I get to say Jim Bob Cooter (that’s really his name). The Detroit defense is better than you think. Minnesota now has Shaun Hill at QB for week one presumably, Hill is a solid veteran backup QB, the key words there are solid and backup. The desperation trade for Sam Bradford might help but this isn’t a baseball team plugging a new starting pitcher into the rotation, this is a much tougher transition. By the way, the irony of a team trading for Sam Bradford to replace their injured starting QB is epic. Good luck Adrian Peterson, it’s tough when you have 6 blockers and the defense has 9 guys within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. John Fox is still trying to work some magic on that defense in Chicago and in the mean time he’ll lean on Jay Cutler and Jeremy Langford on offense. Sorry Bears fans that was supposed to be comforting but then I read “Cutler” and “Langford” and it just doesn’t feel all that comforting.
NFC South
1) Carolina 2) Tampa Bay 3) New Orleans 4) Atlanta
The Panthers were a surprise last year going 15-1 and making the Super Bowl and I’m going to believe they don’t drop off that much. Cam Newton took a major step forward and won the MVP award but he needs someone to help him because teams are going to figure out ways to at least slow him down. I think Tampa Bay makes a small leap this year with Jameis Winston and Doug Martin leading the way on offense and the defense improving just enough. New Orleans defense can’t be as bad as it’s been and I think Drew Brees will have the offense moving right along, watch out for rookie WR Michael Thomas. The Falcons got off to hot start last year and then fell off a cliff. I’m not sure they did enough on defense to improve much and besides Julio Jones I’m not sure who Matt Ryan is planning on throwing the ball to…and don’t say Mohamed Sanu, that’s not scaring anyone (except Falcons fans).
NFC West
1) Arizona 2) Seattle 3) Los Angeles 4) San Francisco
Arizona’s offense should continue to be potent as long as they can keep Carson Palmer upright and breathing. The defense got a nice boost with their trade acquisition of Chandler Jones from the Patriots, he’s a difference maker for that front seven. Seattle is still tough even if their defense isn’t quite up to their Super Bowl caliber squad and Russell Wilson will keep the offense going but he might be running for his life behind a suspect offensive line. The Los Angeles Rams (hell yeah, got it right) are a work in progress but any team with Case Keenum at QB and Jeff Fisher as their coach should be picked to finish last, unless of course they are in a division with this 49ers team. Chip Kelly’s experiment failed in Philly and now he’s trying it with Blaine Gabbert at QB. The 49ers roster was deep and talented about 4 years ago…oh how quickly things change in the NFL. The good news for 49er fans is Chip Kelly has a really good chance of coaching Deshaun Watson next year…if he comes out a year early.
AFC Playoffs
New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Oakland
Wildcard teams: Pittsburgh and Houston
AFC Championship: New England vs. Cincinnati
AFC Champion: New England
NFC Playoffs
NY Giants, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona
Wildcard teams: Tampa Bay and Washington
NFC Championship: Green Bay vs. Arizona
NFC Champion: Green Bay
Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots (Roger Goodell has to hand the Lombardi Trophy and the Super Bowl MVP trophy to Tom Brady)
Individual Awards
MVP Award
Favorites: QB Cam Newton, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Andrew Luck, DE JJ Watt, QB Tom Brady
Dark horse: QB Blake Bortles
Newton could repeat but that’s fairly hard to do so don’t bet on it. Rodgers and Luck will always have to be considered when they are healthy. Watt just keeps racking up Defensive Player of the Year trophies so sooner or later he has to get legitimate MVP consideration. Bortles is poised to make the leap and the Jags offense looks ready to shine.
My Pick: QB Tom Brady
I’m going with the pissed off, back for revenge and redemption with fully inflated footballs, Tom Brady. He only gets 12 games but he will be on a mission. Call it a homer pick, I don’t care…anything to stick it to Goodell.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorites: DE JJ Watt (it’s his award until he gives it up). Just in case Watt’s back injury slows him down. LB Von Miller and DE/OLB Khalil Mack would be my other top choices.
Dark horses: OLB Anthony Barr; OLB Chandler Jones
Barr could be a wrecking machine for the Vikings and if they are going to overcome Teddy Bridgewater’s injury they are going to need an elite season on defense and it starts with Barr. Von Miller is a beast so he will make some noise. Chandler Jones looks like a great fit in Arizona at OLB and this may be a trade that comes back to haunt the Patriots. I understand they have a number of young guys on defense and can’t pay them all but they may have given up the wrong guy.
My Pick: DE/OLB Khalil Mack
He is about to be let loose on the NFL and with a couple of guys like free agent Bruce Irvin and rookie DE Shilique Calhoun around to take some attention away Mack could be in for a 20 sack season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorites: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Will Fuller, WR Tyler Boyd, WR Sterling Shepard
Dark horse: Devontae Booker
Elliott could run away with this award (sorry about the pun) and the only thing holding him back will be teams stacking up to stop him and daring the Cowboys to count on Dak Prescott to win games. Elliott is special and so is the Cowboys offensive line. Fuller has made some noise in the preseason being Brock Osweiler’s deep ball threat, if he doesn’t drop too many balls he will put on a show. Sterling Shepard is a great fit in the Giants offense and the only thing that might slow him down is if Victor Cruz actual gets back to being his old self…yeah I don’t see that happening either. I sincerely believe Booker will take CJ Anderson’s job and he will excel in Gary Kubiak’s run game. He’s the steal of the draft but he doesn’t have the greatest QBs around to take a little pressure off.
My Pick: WR Tyler Boyd
Elliott is just too easy of a pick so I’m going against the grain. I loved this guy throughout the draft process, I had the Bengals picking him and they did and now he’s stepped up to be the slot receiver they were looking for. He won’t be the #1 WR because the Bengals have AJ Green but that actually helps him because Boyd will feast on single coverage. He’s also the reason I don’t think the Bengals offense misses a beat this year.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorites: LB Myles Jack, DB Jalen Ramsey, LB Darron Lee
Dark horses: LB Deion Jones, DE Noah Spence
Jack isn’t even a starter in Jacksonville but he’ll play in a lot of sub packages and in many places. Ramsey is the best defender in the rookie class but we will see how he is used and how many INT opportunities he gets. Winning the rookie award is about stats, especially on defense (Sacks and interceptions make headlines). Deion Jones doesn’t get a lot of pub but he’s going to rack up the tackles in Atlanta where their other LBs don’t tackle enough. Speaking of tackling Darron Lee is going to be playing behind one of the best defensive lines in football for the NY Jets which means he’ll be plenty clean to run around tackling everything in sight. Lee is a speed demon and is in the perfect place for his skills. Big, huge tackle numbers for Lee in New York.
My Pick: DE Noah Spence
I said the award was about stats and truthfully there isn’t a dominant looking DE from early in the draft with Joey Bosa’s holdout putting him behind in development, Shaq Lawson being injured and DeForest Buckner not really in a position to put up big sack numbers. Spence starts the season as the third DE in Tampa Bay but he’ll be the designated pass rushing specialist and he could be dominating in that role. He’ll make the most of his snaps and put up a sack total in the mid teens.
The Hott Read 