The Iowa Hawkeyes have spent the past five seasons under Fran McCaffery rebuilding a once proud program and it paid off last year in not only a trip to the NCAA tournament without having to play in the play-in games (I’ll never refer to them as the first round so don’t try to “correct” me on it). The team even won their first game by destroying a Davidson team many believed would upset them. Going into last year many national basketball people thought Iowa would take a step back after losing Devyn Marble to the NBA but they underestimated the impact Aaron White would have in his senior year as he stepped up in a big way to lead the Hawkeyes. Now the national media is taking a similar approach to this year’s Hawkeyes as they believe the team can’t possibly replace the spectacular Aaron White. That’s fine, whether it’s basketball or football Iowa always seems to do better when no one sees it coming. Underestimating what Coach Fran has built is foolish and this team has plenty of pieces to fight for the Big Ten title, make the NCAA tournament and play their way into the Sweet 16, or as I call it, take the next step.
McCaffery made it clear in his preseason press conference that this team is like nothing he has coached before because he has a lot of veteran talent with plenty of playing experience and then a whole bunch of new guys that haven’t played a minute of Division 1 basketball and not much in between. Seniors Mike Gesell, Anthony Clemmons, Jarrod Uthoff and Adam Woodbury along with junior Peter Jok have played a lot. Sophomore Dom Uhl is the only player that has some experience but not a lot of minutes played. The rest of the rotation will be filled out by newcomers and it may take a while to figure out which ones are ready to step up. The new names to know are; junior PF Dale Jones, true freshmen PG Christian Williams, SG Isaiah Moss, SG Andrew Fleming, F Brandon Hutton, F Ahmad Wagner and redshirt freshmen G Brady Ellingson and PF Nicholas Baer (Baer is a walk-on but McCaffery seems to like to mention him so he’s included). The first 6 guys will get the bulk of the minutes especially to start the season but the new guys are going to find their place and McCaffery isn’t afraid of using a large rotation.
The first thing McCaffery has to figure out is the starting lineup but for now he really only has to make a choice between two guys, Anthony Clemmons and Dom Uhl. Mike Gesell will start at PG and Adam Woodbury will start at center and Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok will fill in two of the other three spots depending on McCaffery’s preference. Clemmons is a senior and many believe he’ll start next to Gesell in the backcourt pushing Jok to small forward and Uthoff to play power forward. Clemmons can certainly play along side Gesell as he has done many times in the past and he has far more playing time than Uhl so that would make sense but let me explain why his experience is working against him making the starting lineup. The rest of the Hawkeye roster has zero experience playing at this level and while true freshman Christian Williams is an intriguing player at PG given his 6’6 frame and ridiculous wingspan it’s a lot to ask him to run the Hawkeyes second team right out of the gate. McCaffery can play Dom Uhl at power forward along with Gesell at PG, Jok at SG, Uthoff at SF and Woodbury at C and his relative inexperience would be covered by the rest of the starters while Clemmons can run the second team while also getting playing time with the starters much like he has throughout his career. Coach Fran has recruited a bunch of players with multiple skill sets and the lineup possibilities seem almost endless and he will mix and match however he sees fit. Let’s take a look at the players he has to work with and where they might play.
Point Guards
Mike Gesell Senior
Gesell has been running McCaffery’s offense for the past three years and comes into his senior year ready to do it again. His outside shot suffered a bit last season because of an elbow injury that limited his range but once Gesell made an adjustment to his game he became very dangerous. He was unable to be affective from 3-pt range because of his elbow so he figured out how to fake the 3 and then take a step or two inside the line and hit the long jump shot. It became a very nice weapon in his arsenal and if his elbow is good to go and he can become a threat from 3-pt range he’ll be deadly. Gesell is a tireless worker and he’s a solid athlete and while he lacks great size to match up on bigger guards with the players on this roster around him that shouldn’t be a concern.
Anthony Clemmons Senior
Clemmons turned into a fantastic 6th man last season and while he’ll get plenty of time running the first team both in place of and beside Gesell his experience is going to be invaluable with so many newcomers on this team. He has proven to be a selfless player and does whatever the team asks of him and while he’ll probably start some games this year he won’t complain when he doesn’t and he’ll be on the floor at the end of games when it really counts. He has good quickness, he’s a pest on defense and he always gives the team a shot of energy when he comes in off the bench.
Christian Williams True Freshman
The Hawkeyes have two seniors and then it’s most likely the tall lanky freshman that gets the reigns. Williams is 6’6 and has a nearly 7’0 wingspan which is going to help him when he does get playing time because he could be a real menace on the defensive end. That is probably his best way to find time on the court but he does add some versatility because his size means he can match up on probably three different positions, PG, SG and SF. It would be wise for the Hawks to find Williams some minutes because both Gesell and Clemmons graduate and they will need a PG next year.
Wings (McCaffery will have an interchangeable group of players at SG and SF, just how he likes it)
Peter Jok Junior
Jok has started at SG for most of the past two years and he needs to take the leap this year as a scorer to help Jarrod Uthoff out. Uthoff is the most likely player to take over as the primary scorer in Aaron White’s absence but the team needs someone to step into Uthoff’s secondary scorer role from last year and it should be Jok. He will play SG but if he stays on the floor when Gesell and Clemmons play together he’ll slide to the SF spot and he should be able to handle it just fine. Jok has a good looking shot and is a solid athlete but he still needs to work on his defense. He made strides last year and was a far better defender his sophomore year compared to his freshman season but with guys like Andrew Fleming, Brandon Hutton and Isaiah Moss coming in if he loses playing time it will be because those guys defend better than he does. McCaffery isn’t the type of coach to just go with the guy that been here if one of those guys plays better they will get the time.
Andrew Fleming True Freshman
Fleming is the shooter Josh Oglesby was supposed to be and the athlete Oglesby never was going to be. Fleming is a 6’5 sharpshooter with solid athleticism, great competitiveness and played at a premier high school program (Oak Hill Academy in Virginia) and he will compete for playing time right away. He isn’t going to back down from the challenge of finding playing time at a crowded position and he’ll make the most of his time on the floor. He could be instant offense as a shooter off the bench and will hopefully stretch the floor the way a shooter should.
Isaiah Moss True Freshman
Moss is another long player at 6’5 but he’s a bit light and skinny. He has a better game going to the hoop than he does shooting from deep but he isn’t a liability shooting the ball. He may see some time as a back up PG depending on how Williams transitions and he’ll also add instant offense off the bench but he’ll do it in a different way. Both Fleming and Jok are outside shooters while Moss is more of an attack the basket sort of player so he should complement those guys very well both this year and in the future.
Brandon Hutton True Freshman
The somewhat forgotten man of this large freshmen group is actually my favorite newcomer on the team. Hutton is a power athlete like no one Iowa has had in a long time. He isn’t a pure scorer and he’s not a deadly outside shooter but he has a chance to be a lockdown defender and an intimidating presence on the floor. At 6’6 210 lbs. Hutton is physically ready to contribute to the team right away and while his offensive skills may need some work that isn’t where McCaffery will need him anyway. A lot of people want to compare another freshman Ahmad Wagner to now former Michigan St. player Branden Dawson but I actually think Hutton has a chance to be that sort of player except he may be able to actually play SF instead of PF because unlike Dawson he has an outside game.
Brady Ellingson Redshirt Freshman
Ellingson was supposed to be the upgraded version of Josh Oglesby in last year’s class but he came to Iowa trying to recover from an injury, couldn’t quite get himself right and ended up redshirting and will try to become Iowa’s sharpshooter off the bench this year. He’s going to find the SG position a little tougher to crack and Andrew Fleming brings a very similar skill set in a slightly larger frame which is going to make things difficult. There’s a saying in basketball “you can never have too many shooters” and it’s completely true just ask the Golden State Warriors. Perhaps Coach Fran spent some time in the off season watching the NBA Champions and he can find a way to get all these guys on the floor at the same time. Ellingson, Fleming and Jok could certainly spread the floor for the Hawkeyes.
In case you’re reading this and are worried that I’m forgettting someone pretty important,, I didn’t, just be patient.
Power Forwards
Dom Uhl Sophomore
Uhl didn’t get a lot of playing time last season but he did a pretty solid job when he did. He showed versatility being able to play both forward spots and that earns you a lot of appreciation from Coach McCaffery because there is nothing more he loves in a player than versatility. This off season Uhl put on 20 lbs. and it’s noticeable. He added the weight so he could handle the low post position better and Uhl must have realized that while he isn’t likely to replace Aaron White’s overall productivity the best thing he can do for this team is become a better rebounder. The scoring slack should be picked up by Uthoff, Jok, Gesell and Woodbury but someone needs to pick up a lot of rebounds that White got last year and Uhl looks ready to do that. The 20 lbs. should also come in handy because Uhl is probably going to see time backing up Woodbury at center because Iowa’s options there are limited.
Dale Jones Junior
Jones is a JUCO transfer from Tyler Community College in Texas but he’s actually an Iowa native. Jones went to high school in Waterloo but he wasn’t a 6’8 PF back then he actually grew into his body while down in Texas. He isn’t a pure post player because of that and while he’ll play PF he can actually stroke it from 3. He is a high percentage 3-pt shooter and he took a lot 3’s last season. The Hawkeyes will need him to help defend in the post because he’s 6’8 and there are not a lot of tall guys on this roster. Jones will add an interesting dynamic to this team but shooters are always welcome and his length and athleticism will work well in McCaffery’s defense.
Ahmad Wagner True Freshman
The other Branden Dawson type player is Wagner. Another power athlete (yep, Fran added two) Wagner will play in the post and he’s a very strong player at 6’7 215 lbs. He is definitely better suited in the low post whereas Hutton is a wing player. Wagner isn’t the tallest guy for a center but he’ll actually get time at both PF and center backing up Woodbury and Uhl. His height might hurt him at the center position but he won’t see a lot 7 footers being the third guy, except maybe against Purdue they are hoarding them in West Lafayette.
Nicholas Baer Redshirt Freshman
Yeah I had never heard of him either and usually I wouldn’t include a walk-on redshirt freshman but McCaffery has mentioned him a couple of times when he gets asked about the lack of depth down low after losing Gabe Olaseni and Aaron White. Baer is a 6’7 kid out of Bettendorf that redshirted last season and apparently has made an impression on McCaffery. I don’t know how much he’ll play but the team needs all the low post help it can get.
Center
Adam Woodbury Senior
It’s hard to believe Gesell and Woodbury are seniors and these two will be forever linked in Hawkeye history. They were AAU teammates throughout high school and they were the foundation of the rebuild Coach Fran has pulled off here at Iowa. Like BJ Armstrong and Roy Marble or Jeff Horner and Greg Brunner it will be hard to mention one without the other. Woodbury has come a long way and this season he needs to step it up another notch because he is the only true center with Gabe Olaseni graduated. He did a much better job last season staying out of foul trouble and that will need to be the case this season. He needs to increase his scoring a bit to help take pressure off the guards but most of all he needs to become a better rebounder. Aaron White excelled at getting boards and it’s one area where Woodbury can truly make a difference for this team and he really should improve.
X-Factor
I told you I didn’t forget about this guy it was just hard to put him a box and he is truly the X factor for the Hawkeyes
Jarrod Uthoff Senior
I don’t want to put a lot of pressure on Uthoff but this Hawkeye team will go as far as he takes them. Aaron White took the team to the second round of the NCAA tournament but Uthoff has the potential to take this program even farther. As much as Gesell, Clemmons and Woodbury are leaders it is Uthoff’s talents that will propel this team. He should be the starting small forward between SG Peter Jok and PF Dom Uhl but he’s far too versatile for it to stop there. Uthoff can run the point and play shooting guard if the Hawkeyes want to go really big with their lineup and in college basketball where there are not a ton of 7 footers to deal with he can play some center, truly he can play all five positions. Last season Aaron White took the reigns and was the go-to guy for the Hawkeyes and in crunch time he was magnificent. Uthoff has to assume that mantle this season and be that guy. He can be an unstoppable offensive force now that he won’t be deferring to White and his offensive game is far more diverse than White’s was. Uthoff is also a defensive menace because he is one of the best weak side shot blockers I’ve ever seen. His height, length and athleticism make him a scary defender and every team has to know where he is on the floor because he may come out of nowhere to block your shot. Uthoff’s versatility (along with that of many others) makes the variety of lineups Coach Fran can run out on the floor nearly endless. The only thing that was holding back Uthoff from being a dominant force before was his willingness to defer to White and hope that he is more selfish this year and takes on the responsibility of being the focal point of the Hawkeye team.
Coach McCaffery’s teams have always had plenty of versatility and his preference for recruiting guys that can play multiple positions has paid off on this roster and should make his lineup changes plentiful. He will have to use the early part of the schedule to pare down his rotation because something tells me he won’t be using 14 players in a rotation. By the time the Big Ten season rolls around McCaffery should have his rotation down to about 11 guys at the most. PG Gesell, SG Jok, SF Uthoff, PF Uhl, C Woodbury and sixth man Clemmons should be the top 6 leaving room for 5 others to get playing time. PFs Dale Jones and Ahmad Wagner are almost a given since size is at a premium. I think you’ll see Andrew Fleming emerge as the shooter/scorer off the bench and I also think F Brandon Hutton brings versatility and great defensive prowess that will get him playing time. That leaves the last potential spot if McCaffery goes 11 deep as a fight between Moss, Williams and Ellingson. I would lead towards Moss because I think he brings a different offensive dimension but Williams potential on defense and Ellingson’s potential as a shooter could also be useful skills.
This Iowa Hawkeye team is going to be very good and see Jarrod Uthoff as a First Team All-Big Ten selection and potentially the Big Ten Player of the Year. The Hawkeyes will give Maryland a run for their money for the Big Ten title and the Sweet 16 is the least I expect out of this team. After the Hawkeye football team wins the Big Ten Championship game over the Ohio St. Buckeyes and then wins the College Football Playoff Championship I expect Fran McCaffery and the basketball team to follow that up with a run the NCAA Final Four and obviously a National Championship win over Marcus Paige and the North Carolina Tar Heels. A man can dream can’t he.
The Hott Read 