Since I did my preview differently this season I didn’t give a very clear indication of where I thought teams would end up so here’s a quick synopsis of how I think each division will play out.
AFC East
- New England 2. Miami 3. Buffalo 4. New York Jets
Does anyone really want to bet against Tom Brady this season? The Patriots own the division and a pissed off Brady isn’t giving it up. The Dolphins will be improved and will fight for a playoff spot but they won’t overtake New England. Both the Bills and the Jets have good defenses but Buffalo’s is better and I’m going with the unknown QB Tyrod Taylor over the we-know-he-isn’t-good QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
AFC North
- Cincinnati 2. Baltimore 3. Pittsburgh 4. Cleveland
This is a three team race and not much will separate the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers. Cincinnati has been pretty good in the regular season and I think that continues. The Ravens need some people to step up at WR and TE for Joe Flacco and some young guys on defense have to be as good as the Ravens hope they are (DE Tim Jernigan being a big one). The Steelers offense should be good even without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant to start the year but I’m worried their defense will struggle. The Browns are starting Josh McCown at QB in arguably the toughest division in football, good luck with that Cleveland.
AFC South
- Indianapolis 2. Houston 3. Jacksonville 4. Tennessee
The Colts are clearly the class of the AFC South and Andrew Luck is going to run roughshod over the entire division. Houston has a tough defense but I’m still not convinced Brian Hoyer is going to make that offense go especially with Arian Foster out of the mix to start the year. Jacksonville could surprise but the offense is still young and the defense needs playmakers especially rushing the passer. Marcus Mariota has Titans’ fans excited but he’ll need help from a less than stellar group on offense around him and the defense is still suspect.
AFC West
- Denver 2. Kansas City 3. San Diego 4. Oakland
The Chiefs could give the Broncos a run for their money but I think KC will struggle because of a very shaky offensive line. Denver’s offensive line is in a state of flux too but I’ll take Peyton Manning over Alex Smith any day. San Diego has Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen on offense but their defense still needs some work. They need a pass rush to help their DBs or they are going to struggle. Oakland finally has some very nice players like QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper and OLB Khalil Mack but that’s not enough in this division.
Playoff Wildcards: Baltimore and Pittsburgh will edge out Miami and Kansas City for the two Wildcard spots. The Ravens and Steelers are just too consistent and Miami and Kansas City are not quite there yet. Miami is good enough to save Joe Philbin’s job and Kansas City is good enough to stay the course and look for small improvements.
NFC East
- Dallas 2. Philadelphia 3. New York Giants 4. Washington
The Cowboys are going to miss Demarco Murray but not enough to lose the division to the Eagles. Their pass rush should be much improved and if they can stay healthy on defense (losing Orlando Scandrick isn’t a great start) they will come out on top. Sam Bradford has looked terrific in the preseason and the Eagles entire season will come down to how many games he plays. The Giants offense should be fine if the line can hold up just a little bit but the defense could be ugly. Washington is a disaster and it might remain that way until someone other than Daniel Snyder owns the team and although GM Scot McCloughan does bring some hope Kirk Cousins doesn’t.
NFC North
- Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
Even without Jordy Nelson Aaron Rodgers will lead this team to a division title. Detroit has been the biggest threat (although not much of one) but I think Minnesota takes a step up behind the returning Adrian Peterson and the rising Teddy Bridgewater. Detroit takes a step back because of their issues on both the offensive and defensive lines. They didn’t address the offensive line enough and Suh and Fairley were not adequately replaced. Chicago has some nice offensive pieces but the defense will be atrocious.
NFC South
- Atlanta 2. New Orleans 3. Carolina 4. Tampa Bay
Carolina won this division at 7-8-1 last year so it won’t take much and .500 could take it. The Falcons are still a mess on the offensive line but Dan Quinn should get their defense to be respectable and that’s all Matt Ryan should need to go 8-8. Drew Brees is still fantastic but he needs playmakers like Brandin Cooks and CJ Spiller to really step up because the Saints defense is a work in progress. Carolina is counting on Michael Oher at LT and Devin Funchess to be the top WR so 7-8-1 might be a pipe dream. Jameis Winston is a huge upgrade over Josh McCown and Doug Martin could reemerge at RB but the defense has little pass rush and the offensive line has question marks.
NFC West
- Seattle 2. St. Louis 3. Arizona 4. San Francisco
What was once the toughest division in football now has reshuffled behind the Seahawks. Seattle is the cream of the crop although their season could implode if their offensive line is as bad as I think it is. I put the Rams second because they have a great defense, a re-formed offensive line, a running game that should be good with Tre Mason and Todd Gurley and all they need is a consistent healthy QB and Nick Foles could be that guy. Arizona’s season rests on the health of Carson Palmer and while their defense will take a step back if Palmer is healthy their offense should thrive. San Francisco is a mess and unless QB Colin Kaepernick morphs into the second coming of Steve Young they are in for a long year.
Playoff Wildcards: St. Louis and Minnesota are the surprise wildcard teams beating out the Eagles. This is the year that St. Louis breaks through on the strength of their defense and the running of Todd Gurley. Nick Foles just has to be a solid threat for that team to have a chance. The last wildcard spot will come down to Chip Kelly’s overhauled Eagles team and the surprising Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater will take a major step forward with Adrian Peterson leading the running game and the Vikings defense will be better than the Eagles which will be the difference.
Individual Awards
Most Valuable Player
Top Contenders: QB Aaron Rodgers, DE JJ Watt, QB Andrew Luck, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, QB Tony Romo, QB Ben Roethlisberger
My Dark Horse Candidate: QB Sam Bradford
Going into the season this really looks like a three man race; reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, All-World DE JJ Watt and emerging superstar QB Andrew Luck. Rodgers is the best QB in the league but the gap between him and Luck is closing fast and Watt is such an amazing talent he defies all conventional wisdom and makes a great case for MVP. Tom Brady has a deflated football sized chip on his shoulder and has won 4 Super Bowls so I think he’ll be in the conversation. Adrian Peterson is out to prove he’s still the best RB in the league so 2000 yards isn’t out of the question. Romo is the unsung hero for one of the better offenses in the league and without Demarco Murray around he’ll have to carry more of the burden. Roethlisberger had a fantastic year last year and could repeat it but the Steelers defense may keep the team from being one of the best and while that shouldn’t negate his candidacy in reality it will hurt him. I picked Bradford as my dark horse because if he stays healthy he could put up huge numbers and with that team they could knock off the Cowboys in the division. He has looked great in the preseason and while he’s more likely to win Comeback Player of the Year if he stays healthy MVP isn’t out of the question because he has that kind of talent.
My Pick: QB Andrew Luck
Luck is about to emerge as the best QB in the league. The weapons he has on offense and his talents are a deadly combination. Rodgers is still right there with him but it’s about to become Luck’s league.
Offensive Player of the Year
Andrew Luck wins this with ease. The yards passing and the passing TD records are a possibility for him this year.
Defensive Player of the Year
Top Contenders: DE JJ Watt, MLB Luke Kuechly, DE Robert Quinn, OLB Justin Houston, DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Mario Williams
My Dark Horse Candidate: OLB Khalil Mack
This is JJ Watt’s award to lose seeing as he has won it 2 out of the last 3 seasons but he did lose it to Luke Kuechly in between his two wins. Kuechly is a tackling machine and he isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon so he’s a strong contender. Quinn wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was in 2013 but when a 10.5 sack season is a down year your bounce back season could win you this award. Justin Houston’s massive contract from this off season was well earned after he nearly broke the single season sack record last year meaning a repeat performance will get noticed. The Dolphins expect Suh to be in the discussion for this award after paying him a ridiculous sum of money this off season. Mario Williams has been a fantastic player his entire career and he could have a few more great seasons under the tutelage of Rex Ryan. Khalil Mack is a superstar talent and the only thing really holding him back from getting into the conversation for DPOY is the fact that Oakland is unlikely to be all that good and it is the curse both he and Mario Williams will likely have to overcome to win this award.
My Pick: DE Robert Quinn
At this point picking anyone other than Watt seems crazy but to me it just seems too easy. Quinn plays on the best defensive line in football and with the help of DE Chris Long and DTs Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers I think Quinn bounces back to lead the league in sacks and if St. Louis makes the playoffs that could really help his candidacy. One thing that could hold him back is if his line mate Donald steals too many sacks from him, he’s a stud too.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: QB Jameis Winston, QB Marcus Mariota, RB Todd Gurley, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Amari Cooper, WR Nelson Agholor, RB Ameer Abdullah, RB TJ Yeldon
My Dark Horse Candidate: WR Jaelen Strong
I listed Winston and Mariota because as starting QBs from day one if they turn around their teams they will be in the driver’s seat for this award but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Melvin Gordon has the best shot because he’ll be a high usage rookie for the Chargers and he should put up big numbers. Todd Gurley will start the season on the shelf as he recovers from his torn ACL but his comeback is almost complete and once he takes over as the starter he should dominate. Amari Cooper will be the #1 WR for the Raiders and Derek Carr’s favorite target. Nelson Agholor will have to share Sam Bradford’s attention with Jordan Matthews but he will make some big plays and have plenty of highlights. Ameer Abdullah looks like a good bet to be the Lions’ primary ball carrier as does TJ Yeldon with the Jaguars and both of these players success will be determined by their ability to stay healthy. Jaelen Strong is running behind plenty of veterans with the Texans but Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts are nice players that could be outplayed once Strong gets his footing.
My Pick: WR Amari Cooper
I think Cooper has Pro Bowl ability and while defenses will focus on him he does have Michael Crabtree to take some pressure off of him. Derek Carr knows that Cooper is a special weapon and having a defense focus on him has never slowed Cooper before.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: DE Vic Beasley, S Landon Collins, DE Leonard Williams, CB Marcus Peters, DE Randy Gregory, LB Stephone Anthony
My Dark Horse Candidate: LB Eric Kendricks
Vic Beasley is the pass rusher the Falcons have been missing for years and he should be a major playmaker for Dan Quinn’s defense. Landon Collins is the last line of defense for the Giants and while he is just a rookie they need him to play like a seasoned veteran because they don’t have much else at the position. Leonard Williams might be the most talented defensive rookie in this class and with Sheldon Richardson starting the season suspended Williams will shine. Marcus Peters will also get an early opportunity to shine with Sean Smith suspended to start the year. Peters is a true cover corner and he’s a rising star. Randy Gregory is a backup at the moment but he should be a pass rushing specialist and he could put up some sack numbers that get him noticed. Stephone Anthony is going to rack up tackle after tackle starting in the middle of the Saints defense, if he can make some big plays happen he’ll get noticed. Eric Kendricks isn’t even a starter for the Vikings as veteran Audie Cole will begin the season in the middle but Cole is limited and Kendricks could eventually take the job and he’ll excel.
My Pick: CB Marcus Peters
Peters is a special player that will shine in his time replacing the suspended Sean Smith and when Smith returns they will pair up and be one of the best CB duos in the league. Peters has the ability to be one of the best cover corners in the entire NFL and he should make enough plays to get noticed and win this award.
Hott Read Thoughts
- There were a number of interesting moves at the end of the preseason and contrary to ESPN belief the cutting of Tim Tebow was not one of them. The media’s Tebow obsession is bordering on insane. The trading of RBs Terrance West to the Titans and Christine Michael to the Cowboys could have an effect down the line. The Titans have Bishop Sankey and some niche runners while the Cowboys have Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden who underwhelmed in the preseason. The Titans put David Cobb on IR otherwise he would have been my Offensive Rookie of the Year Dark Horse Candidate. Also the Bears cut starting RT Jordan Mills at the end of the preseason and it looks like RG Kyle Long is moving to RT, that’s interesting.
- There are three interesting coaching situations to watch during the season and those are Jay Gruden in Washington, Mike Pettine in Cleveland and Jim Tomsula in San Francisco. Gruden is on borrowed time and if the Kirk Cousins gambit doesn’t pay big dividends Gruden won’t make it through the year (so Gruden won’t make it through the year). Pettine is banking on a suspect running game, a journeyman QB and a hopefully improved defense. He needs a rabbit’s foot, a four leaf clover and a lucky penny. Tomsula is by all accounts a great guy and a good coach but he may not be ready to handle this franchise at this moment. The 49ers are in for a long year.
- I think the Dolphins are good enough this year to save Joe Philbin’s job. And the Jaguars are good enough to save Gus Bradley.
- Breakout players for this season: On offense-WR Devante Adams, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Amari Cooper. I made my feelings about Cooper pretty clear in the Rookie of the Year section, he’s special. Adams production will skyrocket because someone has to replace the production of Jordy Nelson and Adams becomes one of Aaron Rodgers top targets, good gig if you can get it. Jeremy Hill is a dark horse to lead the league in rushing (or at least finish second to Peterson). The Bengals know they can’t let their season rest on the arm of Andy Dalton so Hill will get a lot of carries. Jarvis Landry stepped up last year once he got a chance and this year he will be Ryan Tannehill’s security blanket and he’ll easily pass 100 catches. On Defense- DT Aaron Donald, LB Jamie Collins, DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Desmond Trufant. Donald is a disruptive force who had a very good rookie year and he’s only going to get better. Collins stepped up big in the playoffs for the Patriots last year after some injuries started to pile up. Belichick likes him and he’ll get even more responsibility this season. Ansah is going to be asked to do more this year and after having 7.5 sacks I think he’s poised to go get 12-15 this year. Desmond Trufant is still one of my favorite cover corners in the league even though he struggled at times last year. The Falcons had virtually no pass rush and even the best CB can cover a receiver all day. With Vic Beasley bringing the pressure, along with some other veterans, Trufant’s job gets easier and he will shine.
- It’s amazing to me that what used to be the safest position to draft early, offensive tackle, has become almost as big a crapshoot as drafting QBs. The first round picks since 2011 that have struggled are Matt Kalil, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, DJ Fluker, Justin Pugh, Jake Matthews, James Carpenter, Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi. Greg Robinson, Ja’Wuan James and Lane Johnson are fine and could get better. Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Riley Reiff have established themselves as solid starters. Taylor Lewan showed promise in his rookie year and only Tyron Smith has shown to be an elite level left tackle. Eric Fisher was the #1 overall pick and he just got moved to RT. James Carpenter and Justin Pugh have moved to guard and DJ Fluker probably should. Derek Sherrod and Gabe Carimi are basically done in the NFL. It used to be if you wanted a safe 1st round pick you go with an OT, not any more.
- The first week of the college season wasn’t great for some of the bigger names for the 2016 draft. OSU DE Joey Bosa sat out due to a suspension and OSU didn’t miss a beat. Bosa is still the odds-on favorite to go #1 because no QBs stepped into the spot. His teammate Cardale Jones still has a ways to go to convince me he’s worth the #1 overall spot. Penn St. QB Christian Hackenberg was terrible in an embarrassing loss to Temple and he shouldn’t even be thinking about the 2016 draft right now.
- I don’t do early mock drafts like some websites do but if everyone that does do them didn’t change their 2018 #1 overall selection to UCLA QB Josh Rosen after the first week they are crazy. 2018 is a long way off but that kid looks like the next Andrew Luck.
- If Iowa DE Drew Ott can play like he did the opening weekend of the season he’s going to fly up draft boards.
The Hott Read 