Every year I try to figure out how best to break down my NFL preview and in the past I’ve done it by division and I’ve done it as power rankings but I’ve decided to try something different this year. The NFL has obviously become a passing league and that means the QB position becomes more and more important every year. In the NFL the belief is that you either have a franchise QB or you’re looking for a franchise QB and while that’s generally true it’s a little more complicated than that. I’ve broken the league down to five categories of QB and they range all over the spectrum. I’m not simply going to preview each teams QB situation I’m just using it to group them together. Not every team relies on its QB to be successful but if you look at the teams that made the playoffs last season and the teams that did well in the playoffs the common theme is a pretty good QB (the Cardinals making the playoffs after Carson Palmer went down was the exception and their disastrous playoff exit told the real story).
Teams That Need a New QB (these teams are hoping that Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, Cardale Jones, Trevone Boykin and Jared Goff all have fantastic college football seasons and are available in next year’s draft)
New York Jets
Geno Smith had his jaw broken by a now former teammate and it might be a blessing in disguise. The Jets defense might be good enough to win 6 or 7 games with Smith at QB and might provide the team with hope for the future but I’m not sure the defense can do that with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the controls of the offense. The team needs to fail miserably on offense and get a high draft pick it can use on a new QB so they can start over at the position. Smith will be out several weeks and that will put them in a bit of a hole. Even with the addition of WR Brandon Marshall giving the Jets a legitimate WR corps and perhaps a solid passing game the rest of the offense is suspect. The offensive line is just okay and the running game is lacking a playmaker. Chris Ivory, Stevan Ridley, Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy are a hodgepodge of average RBs that isn’t scaring anyone.
The Jets defense is immensely talented and with new head coach Todd Bowles running things they should be pretty good. They have started the year off a little rough with DL Sheldon Richardson getting a suspension and Muhammed Wilkerson unhappy with his contract situation but Bowles did more with less in Arizona as defensive coordinator so the defense should be fine. The revamped secondary led by Darrelle Revis should be a massive upgrade while Bowles will get the most out of the LB corps.
Biggest Off Season Moves: Signing WR Brandon Marshall, CBs Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine and S Marcus Gilchrist
Last season the Jets WR corps had a lot of nice complementary parts but no real #1 receiver, enter Brandon Marshall. He’s getting a bit older and he usually wears out his welcome but for now he’s a fantastic addition. Revis is the big name they added on defense but it was just a small part of their overall remodeling of the secondary. The brought back Cromartie to pair with Revis and signed Buster Skrine to be their new nickel corner. They also hope Marcus Gilchrist can pair with second year safety Calvin Pryor to improve their play over the middle.
Player to Watch: Rookie DL Leonard Williams
When the Jets drafted Williams in the first round it looked like they were just grabbing the best available player even though it wasn’t at a position of need, now with the suspension of Richardson and the contract issues with Wilkerson the pick looks pretty brilliant. Williams is an impressive player and Richardson’s immaturity might make it easy for the Jets to satisfy Wilkerson’s contract demands and let Richardson go if Williams fills the role.
Sleeper for the Season: Rookie OLB Lorenzo Mauldin
He’s having a good camp and they need his pass rushing speed off the edge. Todd Bowles could turn this kid into a star. Calvin Pace is 34 and has lost a step pass rushing and Quinton Coples has never been a big sack guy. Mauldin has looked good and behind a good defensive line he could create a lot of havoc.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have the pu pu platter of Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and EJ Manuel at QB so as soon as they can get better at that position they will take that opportunity. It’s unfortunate because with guys like RB LeSean McCoy, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Percy Harvin, TE Charles Clay, WR Marquise Goodwin and WR Robert Woods the Bills actually have some skill position talent that could be dangerous if they had a decent QB. Rex Ryan took over as coach this off season and he’ll have the same issue he had with the Jets, bad QBs. RB LeSean McCoy was brought in from Philadelphia and while he’s a supremely talented RB he may not be able to hold up under the ground and pound style Ryan prefers to use. This team will go as far as their QB position takes them and right now it’s a two man race between Cassel (he shouldn’t hurt you) and Tyrod Taylor (he’s never really played so we don’t know if he sucks or not). Manuel has basically played his way out of the job and may be playing his way off the roster (that’s a dramatic fall in two years).
*Last minute update: Even though EJ Manuel played well in the latest preseason game the Bills announced Tyrod Taylor their Week 1 starter.
The Bills defense was very good last year and they shouldn’t lose a step under Ryan. DEs Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes both registered double digit sacks and no one should expect less. The LB corps lost Kiko Alonso in the McCoy trade but he missed last season with an injury and they were fine without him. The secondary should be tough if Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore can stay healthy.
Biggest Off Season Move: Trading for RB LeSean McCoy
The Bills let CJ Spiller walk in free agency and they traded LB Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia to get one of the most talented RBs in the league. McCoy has a vast array of skills but he didn’t fit what Chip Kelly wanted to do with the Eagles. Ryan likes to run the ball but he would be wise to find ways to get McCoy the ball in space and not just run him into the ground.
Player to Watch: RB LeSean McCoy
McCoy is a true talent and does so many things well but if Ryan runs him over and over again between the tackles he’ll break down physically and it won’t do them any good.
One Last Chance: WR Percy Harvin
Harvin is a mirage, it’s the glimmer of hope you see once in a great while that makes teams think he’s a playmaker. This is his last chance, he wore out his welcome in Minnesota, then in Seattle and he never really settled in with the Jets. Rex Ryan is taking another shot but this team would be wise to lean on real playmakers like McCoy, Sammy Watkins and even try to use Marquise Goodwin’s potential instead of counting on Harvin.
Sleeper of the Season: RB Karlos Williams
Williams dropped down the draft board but he’s the player on the roster that has the physical stature and running style that would fit Ryan’s preferred running game. He’s big, strong and powerful and he could handle pounding on a defense. If McCoy needs some help it could be Williams who steps in to lend a hand.
Washington Redskins
New GM Scot McCloughan brings a completely different philosophy to team building than Daniel Snyder has had in the past, McCloughan prefers good players not just expensive ones. The problem for the Redskins is that their entire season hinges on Robert Griffin III and how he plays. RGIII had a nice rookie season and has been an unmitigated disaster since. Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy proved last year that they aren’t the answers either. Washington’s opening preseason game was a debacle and Griffin barely made it out alive. The offensive line is a work in progress with rookie Brandon Scherff trying to figure out playing right guard while Morgan Moses tries to settle in at right tackle. It’s going to take some time for the new offensive line to get it together.
*Last minute update: RGIII is dividing the ownership from the coaching staff and front office. According to reports the coaches and front office are ready to move on from Griffin and Snyder isn’t (surprise, surprise). Jay Gruden has named Kirk Cousins the opening day starter (that should not inspire confidence).
The replaced departed free agent OLB Brian Orakpo with recently released former Saint Junior Galette and he promptly tore his Achilles. Galette is a talent and he could have been a great addition but he was available because of his off-the-field issues and he was a gamble anyway. They needed his pass rush to complement Ryan Kerrigan and his injury is a pretty big blow. Taking chances on guys like Galette and reclamation projects like safety Dashon Goldson often backfire and they ‘Skins can’t afford to have that happen.
Biggest Off Season Move: Hiring GM Scot McCloughan
I had Galette here until he was lost for the season but McCloughan was a big move too. The Redskins have been a front office wreck since Dan Snyder bought the franchise. The last few years were even worse when Mike Shanahan was trying to make moves and Snyder was overpaying players for no reason. McCloughan is a smart personnel man and if Snyder gets out of his way and he can find a legitimate QB (and he won’t spend three 1st round picks to do it) he could turn this team around. Jay Gruden might be on thin ice but it is probably more because McCloughan didn’t hire him and he might want his own coach.
Player to Watch: QB Robert Griffin III
This team goes as RGIII goes and I don’t think that’s going to be a good thing. The odds makers have Jay Gruden as the most likely head coach to be fired first and I would have to agree. I think the Redskins might be the worst team in the league this season and that’s in large part because I don’t think Griffin will hold up and they won’t be very good when he fails.
Sleeper of the Season: Rookie OLB Preston Smith
With Galette going down for the year someone is going to have to step in opposite Kerrigan. Washington didn’t draft Smith by accident and his versatility will come in handy. He can play all over and move around on the defense and be utilized in so many ways he’ll make a big impact.
Cleveland Browns
By all accounts Johnny Manziel is having a very good training camp and has gotten his life straightened out. However, he is still the backup to Josh McCown, the same McCown who is a career backup and flamed out last year in Tampa Bay. Maybe Manziel has a future as the starting QB in Cleveland but if the Browns have a chance to grab a franchise QB in next year’s draft they won’t pass on it. QB is obviously an issue but even if they had Peyton Manning in his prime I’m not sure he could do much when his WR corps is made up of Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins, his TE is Gary Barnidge and his RBs are Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West. At least they have the best LT in football Joe Thomas.
The Browns run defense put up about as much resistance as a matador last year and while it’s hard to say one player can fix an entire run defense new NT Danny Shelton is a nice start. The defense needs better play out of OLB Barkevious Mingo to complement Paul Kruger but if Mingo continues to disappoint rookie LB Nate Orchard could bring some pass rush off the edge. Free agent addition CB Tramon Williams should work well opposite Joe Haden but they still need second year man Justin Gilbert to shake off his terrible rookie year and lend a hand.
Biggest Off Season Move: Drafting NT Danny Shelton
Literally and figuratively Shelton was a big addition. A man that is 340 lbs. should not be as agile and athletic as Shelton but he is and he will make a major difference on this defense. Simply having to run around him will improve the run defense and he’ll occupy blockers making it easier on the linebackers. He is also a scary sight chasing a RB down the line of scrimmage but he will make plenty of plays that way too.
Player to Watch: QB Johnny Manziel
I debated putting RB Isaiah Crowell or OLB Barkevious Mingo here but it’s really all about Manziel. McCown is a stopgap and not a very good one at that. With an offense seriously lacking in playmakers they need Manziel to step up if they want a chance at winning games. The defense should be better but the offense scares no one except Browns fans.
Sleeper of the Season: Rookie OLB Nate Orchard
Orchard would probably be better suited to be a DE in a 4-3 defense but head coach Mike Pettine is a pretty smart defensive guy and he’ll find a way to use Orchard’s natural pass rushing skills. Barkevious Mingo is a terrific athlete that just lacks the natural instincts as a pass rusher so I think the Browns will turn to Orchard sooner rather than later.
The Hott Read 