2015 NFL Draft Analysis AFC South

Houston Texans

16.  Kevin Johnson CB   Wake Forest

43.  Benardrick McKinney ILB   Mississippi St.

70.  Jaelen Strong WR   Arizona St.

175.  Keith Mumphery WR   Michigan St.

211.  Reshard Cliett OLB   South Florida

216.  Christian Covington DT   Rice

235.  Kenny Hilliard RB   LSU

Immediate Impact:  CB Kevin Johnson, ILB Benardrick McKinney

At first glance it doesn’t look like the Texans need a CB with Jonathan Joseph on board and the re-signing of Kareem Jackson but this team plays in a division currently dominated by Andrew Luck and the Colts.  The Texans don’t have any depth beyond Joseph and Jackson so Johnson immediately becomes the nickel corner and with the way the Colts are collecting WRs that’s going to be an important position.  He’s also likely to be Joseph’s eventual replacement.  McKinney immediately becomes a starter next to Brian Cushing at ILB if Cushing can stay healthy enough to start too.  McKinney has some issues to work on (he’s coverage skills are lacking) but he’s big, physical and a major upgrade over the current ILB talent.

Best Value:  WR Jaelen Strong

Getting Jaelen Strong in the third round is THE steal of this draft.  Strong was a first round pick in my opinion and he’s a top-notch starting WR in the league.  The Texans signed two veterans, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington, to join DeAndre Hopkins but Strong will make his presence felt.  He’s big and physical and he proved he has more speed than he’s given credit for in scouting reports.  Strong is a playmaker that will make life easier on either Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer, whichever one wins the QB job.

Sleeper:  OLB Reshard Cliett

I’m taking a shot in the dark here because I’m not seeing a major sleeper in this draft class.  The Texans need depth at LB and OLB could need extra help if Jadeveon Clowney’s knee proves to be a chronic problem.  Cliett is more athlete than football player but he brings an intriguing athleticism to the position.  He’s not a classic pass rushing OLB and is more of a pursuit player so it’s possible he helps at ILB instead.  The Texans have Clowney, they hope, and Whitney Mercilus but not much else outside so if Cliett can show some versatility he could be useful.

Overall Analysis:

They took a CB everyone loves in Johnson, an ILB they desperately need in McKinney and got the absolute biggest steal of the draft in Strong so that’s a pretty good start.  WR Keith Mumphrey is a try-hard player but he will struggle to make this team as a WR unless he can prove to be a valuable special team’s player.  It’s possible that after Hopkins, Shorts, Washington and Strong that the Texans may want a very good special team’s player as their fifth receiver so don’t discount the possibility completely.  Christian Covington is a very talented but raw defensive lineman that I’m not sure is a great fit in an odd front but his talent was well worth a late pick.  RB Kenny Hilliard is an interesting addition given that the Texans drafted his former LSU backfield mate Alfred Blue last year.  They are similar style RBs and the both fit the style the team uses but Hilliard may find the depth chart hard to crack with Arian Foster, Blue and free agent signee Chris Polk ahead of him.  Hilliard is another guy that might make the roster if he shows special teams value.

Indianapolis Colts

29.  Phillip Dorsett WR   Miami

65.  D’Joun Smith CB   Florida Atlantic

93.  Henry Anderson DE   Stanford

109.  Clayton Geathers S   UCF

151.  David Parry DT   Stanford

205.  Josh Robinson RB   Mississippi St.

207.  Amarlo Herrera ILB   Georgia

255.  Denzell Goode OG   Mars Hill

Immediate Impact:  WR Phillip Dorsett

Dorsett has elite speed that sets him apart from most WRs but he still needs some work on actual WR skills like how to catch the ball consistently and being precise in his route running.  I don’t believe anyone from this draft class is going to have a major impact on the Colts team this year but Dorsett can be a playmaker and they will use him in certain situations.  Dorsett will find it hard to get a lot of snaps at WR with TY Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief and CFL import Duron Carter ahead of him but his impact could come in the return game.

Best Value:  CB D’Joun Smith

Smith is a very nice CB prospect that lacks the ideal length teams are looking for these days which is why he fell to the third round.  The Colts have Greg Toler and Vontae Davis as starters but Smith could be a slot corner now and eventually replace one of these two in the future.  He’s a good cover man and was well worth a third round pick.

Sleeper:  RB Josh Robinson

Robinson is 5’8 217 lbs. so he is basically Frank Gore’s clone.  Gore was signed to give the offense a legitimate running game and Daniel “Boom” Herron should be a nice backup given how he played at the end of last season but the Colts need depth.  Gore isn’t going to last forever, Herron is better as a complementary back and they can’t count on Vick Ballad to be healthy which means Robinson could get a shot.  He’s a powerful bowling ball type of runner and he won’t go down easy, if something happens to Gore Robinson could step in and he might be Gore’s long-term replacement.

Overall Analysis:

Dorsett and Robinson add some nice depth now with value down the line to the offense.  Smith and S Clayton Geathers should add depth to the secondary.  Geathers is a guy that can add some physicality to the secondary and given the state of their safety depth chart don’t count out Geathers getting some playing time.  Henry Anderson was a nice addition as a five-technique DE and his college teammate David Parry adds to the defensive line depth that could use it.  I wouldn’t expect Herrera or Goode to make the team.  The only issue I really see here is that the Colts didn’t address their offensive line like they needed to in the draft.  Dorsett was a luxury pick and when you just played in the AFC Championship game it’s okay to do that but they need to protect the long-term health of franchise QB Andrew Luck.  It’s nice to surround him with all kinds of weapons, and they have all kinds of weapons, but if he’s running for his life those weapons are useless.

Jacksonville Jaguars

3.  Dante Fowler Jr. DE   Florida

36.  TJ Yeldon RB   Alabama

67.  AJ Cann OG   South Carolina

104.  James Sample S   Louisville

139.  Rashad Greene WR   Florida St.

180.  Michael Bennett DT   Ohio St.

220.  Neal Sterling WR   Monmouth

229.  Ben Koyack TE   Notre Dame

Immediate Impact:  RB TJ Yeldon

Denard Robinson did a nice job last season when he finally took over for the ineffective Toby Gerhart but Robinson broke down physically because he isn’t built to be an every down back.  Yeldon is 6’1 226 lbs. and while his running style is a little too upright he is a punishing runner with good speed.  He will allow Robinson to be a versatile offensive weapon instead of a full-time RB.  His presence also takes some pressure off of Blake Bortles.

Best Value:  OG AJ Cann

Cann was considered a possible first round pick so grabbing him early in the third round was excellent value.  Cann has the ability to be a dominating OG or he could also be a center.  The Jaguars just signed free agent Stefan Wisniewski to be their new C so more than likely Cann will have to compete with Brandon Lindor at RG but he could win that job.  At the very least Cann provides valuable versatility backing up all three interior spots and waits for Zane Beadles contract to become untenable.

Sleepers:  WR Rashad Greene, DT Michael Bennett

Greene is one of my favorite WRs in the draft because he just gets the job done.  He isn’t a physically imposing player and while he’s fast he doesn’t have elite speed but he just understands the position.  The Jaguars spent two early draft picks on Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee last year and undrafted free agent Allen Hurns was a find but Greene will push for playing time.  Greene brings value as a return man and all three of those guys got dinged up at some point and Greene will shine if given a chance.  Bennett has always been a bit of a defensive line tweener, too small to be a DT and too slow to be a DE.  However, he’s always been a playmaker and oddly enough he reminds me of a similar player that plays for Seattle, a guy named Michael Bennett.  The veteran Bennett is a better player now but he faced a lot of the same questions when he entered the league as the rookie Bennett does now.  The rookie Bennett is tailor-made for Gus Bradley’s defense.

Overall Analysis:

The biggest news regarding the Jaguars draft class happened the week after the draft when #3 overall selection Dante Fowler Jr. tore his ACL during minicamp.  Having the one guy you were depending on to be your major playmaker on defense go down with a season ending injury is never good but Fowler should recover so next year it will be like the Jags had two first round picks.  I love what the Jags did on the offensive side of the ball adding Yeldon, Cann and Greene and I think 7th round pick TE Ben Koyack could be a major steal.  Free agent signee Julius Thomas was obviously a major addition but Koyack adds nice depth and he can make some plays too.  Blake Bortles will have a couple of nice safety nets in Thomas and Koyack, always a good thing for a young QB.  I don’t like the fact that they virtually ignored their defense (a strategy made worse with Fowler’s injury) when their secondary is still one of the worst in the league.  The one defensive back they did draft was an in-the-box SS James Sample from Louisville and SS is the one position they actually have a potentially good player in Johnathan Cyprien.

Tennessee Titans

2.  Marcus Mariota QB   Oregon

40.  Dorial Green-Beckham WR   Missouri/Oklahoma

66.  Jeremiah Poutasi OL   Utah

100.  Angelo Blackson DT   Auburn

108.  Jalston Fowler FB   Alabama

138.  David Cobb RB   Minnesota

177.  Deiontrez Mount OLB   Louisville

208.  Andy Gallik C   Boston College

245.  Tre McBride WR   William & Mary

Immediate Impact:  QB Marcus Mariota, OL Jeremiah Poutasi

Zach Mettenberger can protest all he wants and say he isn’t going to just give up the starting QB job but that won’t matter because it is Mariota’s to lose.  Mariota is a great athlete, a great leader and a high character guy and the Titans are going to give him every chance to be the face of the franchise.  Mariota doesn’t fit the Ken Whisenhunt QB mold but if they can figure out an offense he can run he could be special.  The Titans drafted Taylor Lewan last year when they had Michael Roos and Michael Oher as their starting OTs and now they are both gone and Lewan will be thrust into the LT spot meaning they still need a RT.  Poutasi is a big and powerful man that would be best suited inside at OG but he’s a far better choice at RT than anyone else currently on the roster so he’s going to get thrown into the fire pretty quickly.

Best Value:  RB David Cobb

Cobb may also be an immediate impact player and I suppose if he is you could call him a sleeper but I’m going with great value here.  Last year’s rookie RB Bishop Sankey was fine but he wasn’t great and in Whisenhunt’s offense he’s better as a third down situational player.  Shonn Greene was supposed to be the power complement to Sankey but Greene just isn’t very effective anymore (he rarely has been in the NFL).  Cobb is a downhill power runner that fits the scheme and he certainly won’t wilt under the pressure of a ton of carries.  I completely expect Cobb to start by week 5 at the latest and that means the Titans got their starting RB in round 5.

Sleeper:  WR Tre McBride

All the talk about the Titans that wasn’t focused on Mariota was about their second round pick Dorial Green-Beckham and it’s for all the wrong reasons.  Tre McBride is a small school product that will initially have to make the team with his return ability but he could push some veterans out the door at WR.  He needs some refinement on his route running skills because unlike his college days he won’t be the best athlete on the field but this kid will work hard to get better.  Kendall Wright is the only real certainty on the WR depth chart and veterans like Justin Hunter and Hakeem Nicks better show up or the young guys are taking over.

Overall Analysis:

There is a common phrase used in draft analysis “love the player, hate the pick” and it can mean a few things; it can mean taking a player too high or that the player doesn’t fit the team or that the team should have done something else.  I have avoided that phrase in my analysis but it I’m going to use it now, I love Mariota but I hate the fit.  Mariota is everything you want your professional athletes to be as a fan and he’s everything the team wants in a franchise player because by all accounts he’s a genuinely great person.  Unfortunately I don’t think he’s a great fit for Whisenhunt.  Coaches in the NFL tend to coach what they know (unless you’re Belichick then you can do whatever and it works) and supremely gifted athletic QBs are not Whisenhunt’s style.  Maybe they will both prove me wrong.  The team followed up drafting the saint in the first round with the sinner in the second.  Dorial Green-Beckham has physical traits that rival Calvin Johnson but he has character traits that are more Josh Gordon.  If Green-Beckham can learn from Mariota and Tre McBride how to act he may have a chance to have a great career.  I like the late pick of OG/C Andy Gallik because he’s a good player that can back up all three interior positions and you rarely go wrong getting offensive linemen out of Boston College.   The choices of Mariota, Green-Beckham, Poutasi, Fowler, Cobb, Gallik and McBride shows that the team realizes their offense needs some help and all seven of those guys should make the roster.  The Titans didn’t address their defense in any meaningful way in the draft but that was their focus in free agency with the additions of OLB Brian Orakpo, CB Perish Cox and S Da’Norris Searcy.  Mariota and Green-Beckham are most likely to define this draft but there are some other good offensive additions.

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