Overrated, Underrated and Sleepers

Less than two weeks to go until the 2015 NFL Draft so we are in the middle of the over analysis stage which means players are moving up and down teams’ draft boards for no apparent reason.  Some guys had a great workout here or there so they are moving up, others have been so over analyzed that they have been nitpicked apart and every flaw has been blown out of proportion meaning they are dropping.  There are players emerging as possible sleepers available later in the draft and teams are focusing in on the players they want to target and the positions they need to fill.  I’m going to go over players I think are overrated, ones I think are underrated and players I see as possible sleepers in this draft.

Overrated  (there are several ways prospects can end up in this category)

“Workout Warrior” Division

WR Breshad Perriman   UCF – Perriman is a speed demon that ran a 40 yard dash at his pro day workout that is the stuff of legends.  He was a productive player at Central Florida so it’s not like he is only impressive in shorts but right now he is climbing draft boards and by some accounts he’s pushing DeVante Parker as the third best WR.  No offense to Perriman but if he goes in the top 15 or ahead of Parker that’s an overdraft.  I can see him moving ahead of Dorial Green-Beckham but I still like Jaelen Strong better as the fourth WR.  It’s a great WR draft class and six or seven might go in the first round Perriman is in that group but rating him alongside Parker is crazy.

CB Byron Jones   UConn – A workout legend was born at the combine when Jones broke the world record in the standing broad jump going over 12 feet.  He is a special athlete and his pro day workout was fantastic even without breaking 4.4 in the 40, he is one of the best athletes in the draft.  His rise up the draft boards probably has as much to do with a less than impressive CB class overall.  Jones isn’t pushing Trae Waynes as the top CB but there’s still time for teams to talk themselves into that lunacy.  In some rankings he has passed Washington CB Marcus Peters which is unbelievable to me.  Peters isn’t as fast or as explosive as Jones athletically but he a superior cover guy with more natural cover skills.  If someone can harness Jones’ athletic ability he could be an incredible player but his value is a little too high for me right now.

“He looks the part” Division

OT DJ Humphries   Florida – Humphries is the type of athletic specimen NFL coaches love to find at the OT position because guys that weigh 300 lbs. shouldn’t be able to move like he does.  This draft is lacking in the type of athletic big men teams seek at the Left Tackle position so Humphries is still seen as a first round player.  To me he has never quite looked like an elite OT because he’s missing the killer instinct and he’s never had the size or the power necessary to dominate in the running game.

DT Jordan Phillips   Oklahoma – When you’re 6’5 329 lbs. teams are sometimes willing to overlook a few flaws, in Phillips case they may be overlooking too many flaws.  DTs can face a tough challenge when they are as tall as Phillips is at 6’5 because they have a tendency to stand up and play too high, Phillips does that too often.  He is young so that is an issue that can be addressed with good coaching but he also has a tendency to coast and that’s harder to fix.  Phillips should have been more dominate in college but he lacks technique and I question his motor.  However, there are only so many 6’5 guys that weigh 329 lbs. and have the athleticism of Phillips so he will get drafted too high.  He isn’t a gamble I would consider in round 1, he might be worth a 2^nd round pick if you’re in desperate need of a DT but for me I wouldn’t touch him until the 3^rd round.

“There are better players” Division

RB Ameer Abdullah   Nebraska – Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are the consensus top two RBs even if there is little consensus as to who is #1 and who is #2.  Some rankings have Abdullah as high as 3^rd or 4^th and some have him a bit lower.  I like Abdullah but there are way too many backs I’d take ahead of him.  Abdullah has a lot of miles on his tires so to speak and he just doesn’t have the size I think a player needs to excel at RB in the NFL.  He would be a nice complementary back but you don’t take those guys in the second round.  Gurley and Gordon are no-brainers ahead of Abdullah and I think Jay Ajayi out of Boise St. is clearly ahead of him.  I would also take Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and David Johnson ahead of him and you could probably convince me to take TJ Yeldon too.

DE Preston Smith   Mississippi St. – In this draft the majority of elite pass rushers are guys that can play OLB in a 3-4 so Smith is unique in the sense that he is a 4-3 DE.  I’ve seen Smith projected by some to sneak into the end of the first round and that is a stretch for me.  At 6’5 271 lbs. Smith doesn’t have the versatility to play OLB in a 3-4 and he just doesn’t look like an elite pass rusher because he lacks top end speed off the edge.  He isn’t in the same class as Alvin Dupree or Owamagbe Odighizuwa and I think he’s more of a base end like Mario Edwards and I would draft Edwards before Smith.

Underrated

RB Jay Ajayi   Boise St. – We are past the point where players out of Boise St. are unknown but Ajayi is being overshadowed by the giant shadows cast by Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.  While Gurley and Gordon hog the spotlight Ajayi is clearly the next best RB in the class to me.  His all-around game, both as a runner and pass catcher, and his ability to run low to the ground and keep his balance make him a potential NFL starter early in his career.  He has overcome off-the-field issues and injuries and he’s a better person and player because of it.  Ajayi isn’t in the first round conversation like Gurley and Gordon and he doesn’t have the same national recognition like Ameer Abdullah or Duke Johnson but he’s going to be a very good player for someone next year in the NFL.

WR Rashad Greene   Florida St. – Greene is on the outside looking in of the Top 10 WR rankings but that is more a testament to the depth of the position than an indictment of Greene’s ability.  He led the Seminoles in receiving for four years and while he isn’t the biggest or fastest WR in the draft he knows how to get it done on the field.  Greene has a natural ability to get open despite his small frame and he catches everything.  He is also a plus punt returner which adds to his overall value.  He probably isn’t coming off the draft board before the third round but as last year’s draft showed you can find major contributors at the WR position later on.  Greene is one of my favorite players in the draft because he’s just a good football player.

OT TJ Clemmings   Pittsburgh – There is no sure-fire elite LT prospect in this draft.  Brandon Scherff and La’el Collins might both be better suited inside at guard, Ereck Flowers is a powerful RT prospect and you’ve read my thoughts on DJ Humphries.  Clemmings has the size and athletic upside to possibly become a top-notch LT.  He hasn’t been playing offensive line very long and while he can excel at RT his future could be on the left side.  I like what I see and I thing Clemmings projects as a guy that will start his career on the right side and eventually move over to the left.

OG Tre Jackson   Florida St. – It’s hard to say that a guy who was projected as the top OG in the draft at the beginning of last season can somehow be underrated but Jackson has fallen behind a few guys through the year and during the scouting process.  AJ Cann and Laken Tomlinson are higher rated at the moment but Jackson is a player a team can grab in the third or fourth round and have a starting OG on day one and for the next five years.  Jackson is a mauler and he will improve the interior offensive line play for whatever team drafts him.  He is the reason why I question teams taking a OG in the first or early second round when you can get someone this good a little later.

OLB Lorenzo Mauldin   Louisville – Last year his former Louisville teammate Marcus Smith was surprisingly taken in the first round by the Eagles, he had a less than stellar rookie season.  I like Mauldin a lot more than I ever liked Smith and I think he can be a steal in the 3^rd or 4^th round.  This draft is teeming with pass rushing OLB but for a team that may need more than one or a team that wants one but has bigger needs Mauldin would be an excellent choice.  He isn’t the most flexible athlete but his motor never quits.  Mauldin grew up with a tough background and spent most of his life in the foster system but it never stopped him, he fought his way into college and graduated from Louisville and that shows a lot of character.

DT Grady Jarrett   Clemson – As with a lot of these underrated players Jarrett isn’t the biggest or the fastest player but what he lacks in measurables he makes up for in knowhow.  Jarrett is barely 6’1 and only a shade over 300 lbs. but that doesn’t stop him from being one of the most disruptive interior defensive line prospects in this draft.  He doesn’t have the size of a Jordan Phillips or an Eddie Goldman but he may make a better pro than either of those two.  Jarrett isn’t going to be drafted to be a NT but as an under tackle on a 4 man front he can be devastating.  He isn’t as good as Aaron Donald was last year but he’s a similar player and in the right scheme he will destroy offenses for years to come.

ILB Ramik Wilson   Georgia – The inside linebacker position has been devalued by many teams because many teams go to just two linebackers in their sub packages meaning the middle or inside linebacker becomes a two down player.  Wilson is the exception here because he is actually a pretty good coverage LB and against teams that utilize a “move” TE Wilson would be a nice option to have.  Wilson doesn’t stand out like Eric Kendricks from UCLA and he doesn’t have the size of Benardrick McKinney but he also won’t cost you a 1^st or 2^nd round pick like those two will.  Whatever team steals Wilson in the 4^th or 5^th round could be getting a starting LB if it’s the right system.

DB Eric Rowe   Utah – I’ve made it pretty clear that the safety position leaves a lot to be desired in this draft and while Rowe is being looked at as a CB prospect by most teams I think his future could be at safety.  Rowe played safety up until last year when he moved to CB and while his size (6’1 205 lbs.) is tempting at that position he could really excel at safety.  Usually playing a position like CB instead of safety helps a players draft prospects but Rowe could the top free safety in the draft or just one of a group of decent corners.  Rowe reminds me of Patriots FS Devin McCourty, McCourty entered the league as a CB but he struggled until they moved him to FS where he was able to use all his skills.  A free safety with coverage skills is a rarity in the NFL today and as the NFL becomes more and more a passing league teams are going to need guys like Rowe playing deep.

Sleepers

QB Connor Halliday   Washington St. – I’ve written quite a bit about the lack of depth in the QB class this year and I’ve gone so far as to say there are only 5 QBs worth drafting at all.  Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty and Garrett Grayson but there are clearly more than 5 teams that need help at the position so someone is going to have to take a chance.  Halliday is a guy that missed some time and missed workouts because of an ankle injury but he has some very nice tools someone could work with.  He’s over 6’3 and while his weight hovers around 200 lbs. (making him a bit skinny) he has an NFL arm.  He played in Mike Leach’s pass happy offense and out of the shotgun so he will have some transitioning to do to play from under center but if you’re going to take a chance late on day three of the draft you could do a lot worse than Halliday.

RB Jeremy Langford   Michigan St. – Langford missed out on most of the hype around the Big Ten’s best backs; Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman stole most of that spotlight, but Langford is a player.  He is arguably the best pass catching RB in the draft and he excels at the screen pass game which is a staple in most NFL offenses.  Langford got some attention when he ran a faster than expected 40 at the combine (4.42) but he still feels a bit forgotten in a deep RB class.  He might be just a change-of-pace back in many teams’ views but at 6’0 208 lbs. he has the necessary build to be an every down type of back.

WR Stefon Diggs   Maryland – Diggs is a good athlete who believes he’s a great athlete and good WR who thinks he’s a great WR.  When he’s on he’s incredible and when he’s disinterested he’s a nightmare.  Diggs has the diva-WR gene but has lacked the consistent effort to dominate every time he steps on the field.  Usually I hate this type of guy but I’ve seen what he can do when he’s motivated and the fact that he is likely to slip into the 5^th or 6^th round leads me to believe he’ll be very motivated entering the league.  Injury issues could derail him as they have in the past and anybody that drafts him in the 3^rd round or higher would be crazy because it removes his motivation.

WR Deon Long   Maryland – Yep I’m listing both WRs from Maryland and if I were drafting I would probably want Long on my team over Diggs.  Long isn’t quite the athlete Diggs is but he’s incredibly talented and if he hadn’t bounced all over the country in college he would be much more highly rated.  Long is probably a 6^th or 7^th round pick at best but he’s going to stick on a team by proving he’s better than most of the guys hanging on at the end of the WR depth chart.  He has been looking for a home and once he gets on an NFL team they won’t want to let him go.

OT Andrew Donnal   Iowa – I had to throw one Iowa guy in here right?  Donnal is nowhere near the class of prospect that Brandon Scherff is but he can play in the NFL.  Iowa linemen do well and Donnal has the added benefit of the fact that for his first three years of playing he moved all over the line and played everywhere except center.  He was a pretty good RT his senior year and while he may not have the athleticism for that spot he might be able to hold it down in the right system.  Donnal can play OG on either side and his versatility gives him a leg up because teams need depth all and having Donnal may mean they need one less offensive lineman.  If a team like the Broncos is not able to address their RT spot early in the draft Donnal wouldn’t be a bad pick up late.

OL Jeremiah Poutasi Utah – Poutasi is an underclassman that has spent the past two seasons playing LT for the Utes but he’ll most likely have to slide inside to play in the pros.  At 6’5 329 lbs. he’s a mountain of a man and he has long arms which he uses well to envelope defenders.  He could play RT given his size and reach but he lacks footwork and athleticism but he should be ideal to line up inside and match up against some of the bigger, stronger DTs in the league.  Poutasi is a bit of a project but he could help right away inside and possible move out to RT in a pinch.  You can do much worse than this kid in the fifth round or later.

DB Jacoby Glenn   UCF – Glenn is only a third year sophomore so he’s very young and he hasn’t filled out his body yet.  I’m listing him as a DB and not a CB because I think his future could be as a FS.  Glenn is long and skinny but if he fills out his frame he could grow into a safety body.  He was an effective corner because of his great ballskills and competitive nature but he stays too high when backpedaling and doesn’t have a natural hip flip and that will hurt him in the NFL.  His coverage skills, ballskills and willingness to come up in run support would all be of great use as a FS he just needs to get a little bigger and stronger and that should come with age.

FS Gerod Holliman   Louisville – I’ve made it clear that the safety position is lacking high end talent and that’s why I looked to both Eric Rowe and Jacoby Glenn as guys that could switch to the position but there are a couple of guys I’d be willing to take a late round chance on and Holliman is one of them.  It is tough to ignore the 14 interceptions Holliman recorded last year and that makes him an intriguing prospect as a center field type safety it’s the other parts of his game that will drop him in the draft.  He has excellent anticipation and an ability to break on a ball that is uncanny but he gambles more than he should and he is a poor tackler.  He doesn’t wrap up enough and he takes horrible angles far too often allowing players to break big gains and that’s a no-no for a NFL free safety.  These are correctable issues but some guys have a hard time breaking these bad habits.

FS Derron Smith   Fresno St. – There are a number of things not to like about Smith; he’s small, not a great tackler and he too takes poor angles far too often, but still I like him if you’re grabbing him late in the draft.  He can play FS in the NFL due to his anticipation and willingness to come up in run support (even if he isn’t a sure tackler at least he’s willing).  He has good vision and above average coverage ability and against today’s pass happy offenses those are useful traits.