This year’s draft hinges on where Marcus Mariota ends up going. It seems as though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are leaning towards drafting Jameis Winston first overall so the fun begins at #2. The Tennessee Titans could use a QB because no one is exactly sure what they have in last year’s rookie Zack Mettenberger. Mariota might be worth the #2 overall pick but not to the Titans. I can’t imagine a worse fit for Mariota than Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. Mettenberger fits much better because he is a big strong-armed pocket passer, the antithesis of Mariota. There are rumors swirling that Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is going to mortgage the future to move up and grab Mariota, his former Oregon QB, and that might be what’s best for Mariota’s immediate future but probably not optimal for the Eagles given what they would have to give up to move up from #20.
This draft is loaded with pass rushers and wide receivers and is short on QBs, TEs and safeties. We might actually see a first round RB go for the first time in three years and it could be more than one. The combine shuffled the deck a bit especially with the pass rushers and a little with the WRs. As always my mock draft is part prediction, part critical assessment and part advice.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) Jameis Winston QB Florida St.
Unless Winston has another run in with the law between now and the draft it’s looking like the Buccaneers are going to roll the dice on his enormous potential. I’m not sure becoming a professional football player and overnight millionaire is going to help Winston’s character issues (it hasn’t been a rousing success for Johnny Football) but his on the field skills are too enticing to pass up. Coach Lovie Smith and GM Jason Licht are staking their jobs on Winston keeping his nose clean and living up to the hype. The Bucs QB situation was a disaster last year and no matter how many times Smith claims Mike Glennon can be a franchise QB I’m still not buying it. Glennon looks like a solid trade candidate for one of the teams that needs a QB but can’t get their hands on Winston, Mariota or Brett Hundley in the draft. The Buccaneers have two alternative candidates they can look at here with Mariota being the obvious one. Mariota needs more time to adjust to a pro offense but his character is not a question mark. The other alternative is the top overall prospect in this draft USC DT Leonard Williams, while the Buccaneers need a DE more than a DT Williams is a special talent. If they take him and line him up inside next to Gerald McCoy they would have the best set of DTs in the NFL. At this point only Winston can stop himself from going #1 overall but doing something stupid is not out of the question.
- Tennessee Titans (2-14) Leonard Williams DT USC
The Titans sit in the driver’s seat of the draft and they could go many different ways. If Tennessee wants to load up on picks to help turn over their very thin roster they can shop this pick to whomever might want to move up for Marcus Mariota or even to someone desperate to grab Leonard Williams. If they stay here Williams is too good to pass up. While he doesn’t look like a natural fit in their 3-4 defense because he’s more of a DT Williams is versatile enough to play the five-technique DE position and do it quite well. Every 3-4 team is looking for their JJ Watt and while that’s a lot to ask Williams skillset might actually make him the league’s next best thing. Williams is an incredible athlete for a man his size and he can actually rush the passer no matter where he is lined up. He’s not likely to approach Watt’s sack numbers, it’s asking a lot of anyone especially another 3-4 end, but he’ll give the Titans more pass rush than they have had. As I mentioned I think Mariota is a bad fit for Ken Whisenhunt because Whisenhunt’s successes have come with QB’s like Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Phillip Rivers and that just isn’t Mariota. Philadelphia would have to give up a lot to move up here given they are sitting at #20 overall in this draft but a team like the Jets or Rams might be able to make a play for this spot if they want Mariota and aren’t willing to see if he’ll fall.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) Dante Fowler Jr. OLB Florida
The first team in the draft that doesn’t need a QB is the Jaguars. They seem to be fairly satisfied with year one of Blake Bortles and if they can get him a little help on the offensive line and a little health with his skill position guys (Denard Robinson and Marquis Lee) they may actually have a functional offense. The defense wasn’t nearly as bad last year as it could have been as Gus Bradley did a nice job of finding a pass rush with some veteran additions. Bradley still needs talent on defense at every level and while the secondary could really use some help there isn’t a prospect in the secondary worthy of the #3 overall pick. Dante Fowler Jr. is a versatile defender that can bring a great pass rush and a nasty attitude to Bradley’s defense. Fowler was a fringe top 10 pick going into the combine but his impressive showing moved him up and right now he looks like a top 5 pick that fits what the Jaguars want to do. Fowler can play LB, bring the pass rush and line-up all over the defense. He came in at 261 lbs. at the combine and still ran a 4.60 40 which got everyone’s attention. Bradley will know just what to do with Fowler to make the most of his talent.
- Oakland Raiders (3-13) Kevin White WR West Virginia
I’ve made it clear I’m an Amari Cooper fan but it’s hard to ignore the performance of Kevin White at the combine. White is a freak athlete who doubles as a very talented WR. A 6’3 215 lbs. WR with 4.35 speed and a 36 ½ inch vertical leap is tough to forget and he would make a fantastic weapon for 2nd year QB Derek Carr. Carr had a pretty solid rookie season and he didn’t have skill position talent like White around him at all. Pairing White with James Jones and the possibility of a free agent TE or RB would really accelerate the development of Carr and the Raiders offense. Cooper is the more polished prospect and if I were the Raider’s GM I’d pick him but the Raiders are a team that shoots for the moon and White’s ceiling is incredibly high. New head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive coach so he may want a defensive player but GM Reggie McKenzie is trying to hold on to his job and the best way to do that is prove that he made the right call drafting Carr last year to be the franchise QB which means doing everything possible to make sure he succeeds.
- Washington Redskins (4-12) Vic Beasley OLB Clemson
The Redskins’ Robert Griffin induced break from the first round has mercifully come to an end and it has landed them at #5 overall so it hasn’t been a rousing success. They need help on the offensive line which means Brandon Scherff could be in play here but their defense has been pretty bad and they are about to lose OLB Brian Orakpo to free agency and they need another pass rusher opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Beasley came into the draft process as a highly productive player with some physical question marks, namely was he big enough to be an effective NFL player. He rolled into the combine measuring in at 6’3 246 lbs. (about 20 lbs. over his college playing weight), ran a blistering 4.53 40 time and ripped off 35 reps on the bench press, questions answered. Beasley is the highest riser in the draft at the moment and he will be an immediate impact player for the Redskins. He is a game-changing talent and too good to pass up, unless new GM Scott McCloughan decides to cut bait on RGIII and grab Marcus Mariota instead (that’s not going to happen unless Dan Snyder is locked in a box somewhere on draft day).
- New York Jets (4-12) Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
The Jets have Geno Smith and Matt Simms on the roster and free agent Michael Vick is not expected back to say they need a franchise QB is an understatement. Mariota is the type of guy that can handle the New York media and he isn’t the type of guy to end up in the gossip columns the issue is whether or not Mariota can become a pro QB. The fact that the Jets have a new coach in Todd Bowles means he has time to develop a QB if he so chooses. The Jets could go with a veteran from the trade market but given the free agent market is less than stellar Mariota is the pick here. The Jets could use some help on the offensive line, at WR, possibly at RB and they do need to get a little younger on defense at LB so they could go a number of ways or they could dial up Chip Kelly and extract as many draft picks from him as possible if Mariota is still available.
- Chicago Bears (5-11) Danny Shelton NT Washington
New head coach John Fox brought in former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to fix the Bears horrific defense. Fangio runs a 3-4 scheme and the Bears have virtually no one in their front seven that fits into a 3-4 scheme. Jared Allen is a 4-3 DE and is too old to learn new tricks, DT’s Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson and Stephen Paea aren’t big enough to be NTs and not long enough to be five-technique DE, last year’s free agent addition Willie Young might be able to transition to an Aldon Smith-like OLB but that’s a stretch. This massive overhaul has to start somewhere and getting a gigantic NT to put up front is a nice place to start. Danny Shelton isn’t winning any foot races but he’s a force lined up over the center and they don’t make a lot of 6’2 339 lbs. human beings with his skills so the Bears should grab him while they can. While I’m not usually in favor of making a transition from one defensive style to another when you have almost no one that fits the new style the Bears defense was so bad last season that even if they kept the 4-3 alignment they need an almost complete overhaul of their front seven personnel anyway so they might as well change now.
- Atlanta Falcons (6-10) Randy Gregory DE/OLB Nebraska
The Falcons haven’t had a good edge rusher since the days of John Abraham and new head coach Dan Quinn knows the value of a good defense. Gregory slips a little because Fowler and Beasley were both big and fast at the combine while Gregory was good but came in a little light. Quinn will likely run a multiple front defense where Gregory can line up as a hand-on-the-ground DE in certain situations or as a standup LB in others. He had a similar player in Seattle in Bruce Irvin so he will understand how to use him. The Falcons offensive line had many issues last season and it would be perfectly understandable if they address it here. With new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan bringing in the zone-blocking scheme he’s used to using drafting Brandon Scherff wouldn’t be the worst idea. Scherff is familiar with zone-blocking and he could pair with last year’s first round pick Jake Matthews to make a nice set of bookend tackles for Matt Ryan. As good of a fit as I think Scherff could be here I think Quinn wants an impact defender and that’s what he’ll likely get.
- New York Giants (6-10) Brandon Scherff OT Iowa
The Giants built their two most recent Super Bowl teams (according to history, I don’t recall those games) on their incredible pass rush and that is something missing from this team. Add in the fact that Jason Pierre-Paul could be gone in free agency it seems like a pass rusher would make sense but I’m not convinced there is value in one right here. Missouri DE Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine so he could still prove to be the guy, UCLA’s Owa Odighizuwa is a possibility as is Alvin Dupree from Kentucky but the Giants rarely draft for need and will likely go with the best player available. Scherff is a monster on the offensive line and his best position might be RT or inside and that dovetails perfectly with what the Giants need. Justin Pugh hasn’t set the world on fire at RT and many believe he’s better suited inside so bringing in Scherff would give Pugh some competition and probably push him inside to guard. Scherff is a devastating run blocker and no matter where he lines up he would improve the Giants running game which they could certainly use.
- St. Louis Rams (6-10) Amari Cooper WR Alabama
At this point what the Rams are doing at QB changes day-to-day. Some reports say they are sticking with Sam Bradford and some say they are getting a veteran free agent. Some reports say they are trading up in the draft and some say they are trading for a veteran, no matter what they do any QB, Bradford or otherwise, deserves better talent around him. Tavon Austin is a nice little weapon to have but he’s not a #1 WR and while Stedman Bailey stepped up last year he’s a complementary WR not a star. Cooper is a legitimate #1 WR and a star in the making. I’ve compared him to Torry Holt and he’s been compared by others to Reggie Wayne and either of those would be music to a QB’s ears. Bradford is a talented QB who is apparently made out of glass so if the Rams stick with him signing a veteran free agent backup isn’t a terrible idea but drafting Cooper is a fantastic idea no matter who lines up behind center.
- Minnesota Vikings (7-9) DeVante Parker WR Louisville
I’m not usually one to make the easy connection and just go with it but drafting Teddy Bridgewater’s former college teammate to be his go-to WR for the Vikings makes too much sense. The Vikings have Greg Jennings for the moment (his cap number could get him cut) and he’s not getting any younger, Cordarrelle Patterson had a disappointing second year and while they need help at offensive line and linebacker the value just doesn’t match up. Parker is the third WR in this draft but he is certainly worth the 11th pick especially to the Vikings because of his familiarity with Teddy Bridgewater. Whether it is this year, next year or the year after that Adrian Peterson’s time with the Vikings is likely on the short side and Bridgewater is the future of the franchise, he and Parker could make a dynamic combination for years to come. Parker also doesn’t squeeze Patterson out he actually enhances his value because he takes the pressure off. Patterson could rebound in year three because of Parker’s presence and the Vikings passing game could take off.
- Cleveland Browns (7-9) Shane Ray OLB Missouri
The nightmare scenario for the Browns would be Cooper, White and Parker off the board when their pick comes around and in this mock draft that just happened. It’s not that the Browns don’t have other needs but a true #1 WR is the top priority and while Jaelen Strong had a fantastic combine they may not feel comfortable taking him at #12. The Browns’ fans nightmare scenario is that the Browns draft Dorial Green-Beckham here and they have to go to sleep at night hoping he doesn’t turn into the next Josh Gordon off the field. The Browns run defense was terrible and a DT like Malcolm Brown, Carl Davis or Eddie Goldman could be possible but I think unlikely at this point. Former 1st rounder Barkevious Mingo has been less than stellar, Jabaal Sheard is a free agent, and former free agent addition Paul Kruger is not much of a pass rusher which means OLB is a distinct possibility. Missouri DE/OLB Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine but there is a lot to like about him and he can get to the QB. Head coach Mike Pettine needs to generate a pass rush and Ray could be the answer.
- New Orleans Saints (7-9) Trae Waynes CB Michigan St.
If at first you don’t succeed try (draft Patrick Robinson and Stanley Jean-Baptiste) try (sign free agent Keenan Lewis) again. The Saints haven’t had a lot of luck in the draft with CBs and while Lewis had one good year he wasn’t quite as good last year much like the rest of the Saints defense. There is a decent chance the Saints go after a pass rusher like Alvin Dupree or Owa Odighizuwa but that position is deeper than CB and Waynes looked great at the combine and solidified his spot as the top CB in the draft. If the Saints can get the top CB at #13 overall that’s better value than the 4th or 5th best pass rusher. The pass rusher thing could become a bigger need if Junior Galette’s legal issues remove him from the equation (by release or suspension). Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs a better pass rush but he’ll be happy with a better cover corner.
- Miami Dolphins (8-8) La’el Collins OL LSU
The Dolphins have cut Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson and are trying to trade Mike Wallace which basically leaves Jarvis Landry at WR so Jaelen Strong won’t be a surprise here. The Dolphins definitely need to get Ryan Tannehill some weapons but more importantly they need to protect him. Collins probably is best suited to play OG where the Dolphins definitely need help but LT Brandon Albert seems to get hurt a lot and having a guy like Collins who could swing out to LT would be optimal. They need LBs too but there isn’t great value at this spot for the type of LB they want. SS Landon Collins out of Alabama is also certainly a possibility given the Dolphins safety situation and this is about the right spot for him too.
- San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Arik Armstead DE Oregon
The 49ers need WR and CB help but their new head coach is their former d-line coach and he knows they need help there more. Ray McDonald was released towards the end of last season because of his legal issues and Justin Smith might retire and even if he returns he’s a short-term solution. Armstead would be a five-technique DE in the 49ers 3-4 defense and he’d be a good one. It’s his natural position and if they can get Justin Smith to come back and mentor the kid for a year while he starts opposite him he could be fantastic. Finding 6’7 300 lbs. guys as athletic as Armstead isn’t as easy as you might think so if they have a chance to grab him they should. WR and CB can be addressed later.
- Houston Texans (9-7) Alvin “Bud” Dupree DE/OLB Kentucky
The Texans need a QB like the human body needs oxygen but I don’t think it’s going to come from the draft. Head coach Bill O’Brien seems interested in bringing back Ryan Mallet since he really didn’t get a good look at him last year due to injury and if that doesn’t happen Brian Hoyer isn’t heading back to the Browns with the signing of Josh McCown and O’Brien knows him too. Brett Hundley is the only QB worth grabbing here and that’s not a fit. It might seem strange that the Texans would grab an OLB/DE a year after taking Clowney with the first pick but the Texans have virtually no good depth at OLB and counting on Clowney is a risky proposition. Clowney underwent micro-fracture surgery on his knee and that particular surgery doesn’t have a great return rate in the NFL. Dupree is a guy that could line up at OLB or DE and get to the QB and even if by some miracle Clowney does come back Dupree can line up opposite him and they would have two top pass rushers at OLB. CB is a need because Kareem McKenzie is a free agent and WR could become a bigger need if they jettison Andre Johnson but Dupree brings great value at #16 overall.
- San Diego Chargers (9-7) Andrus Peat OT Stanford
The Chargers have a number of ways to go here considering their roster and some of the holes they need to fill. The need a NT with some actual size and skill (all their current ones have one or the other but not both) and Eddie Goldman is a pretty good looking nose man. They could use a CB unless they resign Brandon Flowers but he played well enough last year on a one year deal to possibly price himself out of San Diego. Linebacker, both inside and out, could use some reinforcements. I think they will choose to help out their o-line by grabbing Peat. They just re-signed King Dunlap to play LT and grabbing Peat means they can shift DJ Fluker inside and insert Peat at RT. That’s one draft pick upgrading two spots on the line and possibly making their running attack decent. Peat has a very strong base because of his thick lower body and if he and Fluker line up next to each other they could form a pretty potent right side of the line.
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) TJ Clemmings OT Pittsburgh
The Chiefs have never been a team to go with conventional wisdom and while they are basically barren at WR the depth of this draft class along with the number of veterans that will be on the free agent market will allow Andy Reid to do what he loves to do, draft a lineman. It’s a lot harder to find good lineman on the free agent market than WRs so Reid picks Clemmings who becomes his immediate starter at RT and has the added bonus that if former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher disappoints at LT Clemmings can slide right over. I debated between Clemmings and C Cameron Erving from Florida St. because the Chiefs are likely to lose their starting C Rodney Hudson in free agency. While either of those two make perfect sense in Andy Reid’s world I will say that if I were the Chiefs and Jaelen Strong was still on the board when this pick came up I would hire Usain Bolt to run the card up to the podium to pick him. The Chiefs franchise has never had a WR with the talent of Strong that’s why Tony Gonzalez is their all-time leading receiver and he’s about 400 catches ahead of #2 Dwayne Bowe.
- Cleveland (from Buffalo 9-7) Jaelen Strong WR Arizona St.
This would be a homerun pick on many levels for the Cleveland Brown. After years of ups and downs with Josh Gordon they need the steadiness of Strong. Whether it is newly signed Josh McCown or post rehab Johnny Manziel lining up under center they are going to need a legitimate WR on the outside. Andrew Hawkins was a nice pickup last year as a slot receiver but with Gordon suspended for the year and unlikely to suit up for the Browns ever again and the potential free agent loss of TE Jordan Cameron the Browns need playmakers. Strong had a fantastic workout at the combine and showed the speed scouts didn’t think he had to go along with his outstanding physical strength. There is another part of the scouting report about Strong that the Browns need to consider; words like dependable, hard-working and work ethic show up repeatedly when discussing Strong. High character and accountability are not usually major points of emphasis in scouting and drafting but for a team that’s had to deal with the Josh Gordon fiasco and now Johnny Manziel they actually mean something.
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) Jalen Collins CB LSU
Chip Kelly is an offensive mastermind and now he’s in charge of personnel decisions in Philly and if there is a trade to be made to get up into the top 5 to grab Marcus Mariota I’m sure Kelly will make it. He’s lucky that if he gives up a bevy of picks to get Mariota he still has Nick Foles to trade and get back at least a little something to lessen the sting. I’m not forecasting trades at this point (I loathe to try) so I’m sticking with the Eagles here. Kelly may be an offensive genius which should make it easy for him to spot the fact that his team’s defense was terrible last year. They were second to last in pass defense and so a CB would make a lot of sense. Jalen Collins had the second best CB combine workout (behind Trae Waynes) and Collins has length, speed and raw ability that the Eagles could use. There are other defensive choices that would make sense since the Eagles could use a NT (Eddie Goldman), a pass rushing OLB since Marcus Smith was a non-factor last season (Odighizuwa or Eli Harold anyone?) or even SS Landon Collins because he’s too good to pass up.
- Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE UCLA
Carlos Dunlap did the lion’s share of the work at DE last season as he got virtually no help from Wallace Gilberry or Margus Hunt. Owa would bring a lot of versatility to the Bengals defense and he could line up on either side and really give the offense someone to have to account for besides Dunlap. You can make the argument that they need a DT replacement for Domata Peko more than they need an end so Goldman or Malcolm Brown or Carl Davis might seem more appropriate but Owa is too good to pass up at this point. Youth in the secondary could be a good thing too as Leon Hall and Terrance Newman aren’t spring chickens but I think the Bengals will give Dre Kirkpatrick one more chance and they still think Darqueze Dennard is a player once he returns from injury.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Landon Collins SS Alabama
The Steelers have been holding onto or bringing back too much age on their defense the past few years and while they have added some youth like DEs Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt and LBs Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones it is time for an overhaul. They let long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau go so they could hold onto newly appointed defensive coordinator Kevin Butler and now it’s time to say goodbye to another Steeler stalwart. SS Troy Polamalu is a Pittsburgh institution and a future Hall of Famer but he hasn’t been a great safety for years. Landon Collins would be a great choice to take over for Polamalu and he’d bring a lot of the skills back that have left Polamalu’s game. Collins is an intimidator who can back it up but he’s also a playmaker on the back end. Youth, size, skill and presence is a nice combination in a new SS for the proud franchise and it’s a nice start to rebuilding a very aging secondary.
- Detroit Lions (11-5) Carl Davis DT Iowa
The Lions are almost assuredly going to lose at least one of their starting DTs Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairly and they could lose both. Suh is the better player and is likely to get massive free agent offers so the Lions need to restock the position. There is another issue in play here and that is the fact that the Lions are coming off an 11-5 season and look like they can be contenders in the NFC if they can sustain their momentum. This is why I’m giving them Carl Davis instead of the younger DT Eddie Goldman. Goldman has a pretty high ceiling but the Lions need someone to contribute right away and Davis could slide right in next to either Suh or Fairly if either returns. Davis has a lot of playing time in the Big Ten under his belt so he won’t be intimidated and he’s a physically gifted and ready to play from day one. The Lions don’t want to waste time waiting for someone to develop at this point they need an immediate contributor. Davis had a good combine workout that followed an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and while he isn’t getting a lot of press at this point some team is going to take him right around this spot in the draft.
- Arizona Cardinals (11-5) Marcus Peters CB Washington
The Cardinals are my choice for the dark horse team to grab Brett Hundley towards the end of the first round. They can stash him on the bench and hope that Carson Palmer has one more year in him and let Bruce Arians guide Hundley’s development. They found out last year what it was like without Palmer and don’t believe anything Arians or GM Steve Keim might say about Logan Thomas’ rosy future, it’s a smokescreen. Barring them surprising everyone but me by taking Hundley they have some holes to fill on defense. They let Darnell Dockett go after 475 years (that might be an exaggeration) with the team so they need a five-technique end but there isn’t one worth the pick. They could grab Eli Harold to be their new pass rushing OLB but there is better value at CB. Antonio Cromartie was on a one year deal and he’s likely to leave for greener pastures. Patrick Peterson wasn’t his awesome self last year but he should bounce back. Peters is an immense talent and forget the slightly slow 40 time at the combine he knows how to cover. If there is any coach and any team that can harness Peters talent and get him to behave it’s Bruce Arians and the Cardinals. Tyrann Mathieu has turned things around and Peters could blossom in the desert.
- Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) DJ Humphries OT Florida
The Panthers were the unfortunate souls who won the worst division in football (NFC South) and make the playoffs regardless of their horrible record which is why they are picking so low. One of the reasons Carolina’s season was so tough was because their offensive line was terrible, especially at LT. Byron Bell started 15 games there and he’s already been informed he won’t be re-signed; it probably isn’t a good sign when your starting LT is shown the door and everyone breathes a sigh of relief. I’m not a Humphries fan but even he’s a better option than Bell and at this point is the best possible LT on the board so the Panthers may take him. Humphries has a lot of skills you like at LT and his athleticism is obvious but he’s going to need some good coaching. He can’t possibly be the turnstile Bell was but he’ll need to work on his run blocking considering the Panthers like their power running game.
- Baltimore Ravens (10-6) Cameron Erving C Florida St.
The Ravens need to get younger at OLB (Terrell Suggs is in year 13 and Elvis Dumervil is in year 10) but I’m not sure Eli Harold is a fit and there are a whole host of worthy second round candidates for that spot. I seriously considered WR Dorial Green-Beckham given the fact that Torrey Smith is a potential free agent and Steve Smith is older than Suggs but after the Ray Rice incident (I don’t know what else to call it) drafting a guy with a domestic violence issue in his background is public relations suicide and the Ravens can’t touch him. The Ravens offensive line is pretty good when healthy and undrafted rookie James Hurst was a find last year. The one weak spot is at center where Jeremy Zuttah is fine but not spectacular. Erving found his place this last year after moving to center from LT half way through the year due to injuries on the Florida St. line. Erving started his career on the defensive line, had a good junior year at LT and blossomed as a center after his senior year at LT got off to a rough start. Erving would solidify a very good offensive line for the Ravens.
- Dallas Cowboys (12-4) Eddie Goldman DT Florida St.
The Cowboys have cut some good players and have some good free agents-to-be. They are going to franchise tag Dez Bryant (an obvious move) and let DeMarco Murray test the free agent market. That means many mock drafts are going to have the Cowboys jumping on a RB but if anyone knows you don’t need to take a RB in the first round it’s the team that just had former third round pick Murray run all over everyone. They cut both Henry Melton and Nick Hayden and rendered the interior of the defensive line completely devoid of players. Goldman needs some seasoning but he’s got a high ceiling and he will take up a whole lot of space in the middle of the line. He will hopefully keep their playmaking LBs free to make plays and that would help their defense. They could go RT with Ereck Flowers since they let Doug Free go or they could grab AJ Cann to replace Ronald Leary at guard but 4 first round offensive linemen in five years just doesn’t sound very Jerry Jones like.
- Denver Broncos (12-4) Maxx Williams TE Minnesota
This pick makes way too much sense to actually happen because it is the perfect fit on the perfect team that desperately needs the position and Williams is the best at the position. First of all the Broncos are not only likely to lose their top TE Julius Thomas to free agency because they can’t afford to keep him and Demaryius Thomas but the top two backups to Thomas are also free agents. Secondly new head coach Gary Kubiak’s offense likes to feature a TE and he did so in both Houston and Baltimore with Owen Daniels a veteran Maxx Williams compares very favorably to. Third if the Broncos are bringing Peyton Manning back he has always been fond of using the TE going back to his days with Dallas Clark in Indy up to using Thomas in Denver. Finally Williams is the best all-around TE in this draft so unless the Broncos decide they want to take Devin Funchess and use him as a TE instead of a WR Williams is the pick. Keeping the Broncos offense chugging right along is priority #1 because as long as they have Peyton Manning they have a chance in the AFC.
- Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin
The Colts need help on the right side of the offensive line, their linebacking corps could use some talent and they aren’t exactly stacked at safety but all of those needs take a back seat to the wasteland that is their running back depth chart. Daniel “Boom” Herron finished the year with some nice games but the Trent Richardson experiment was a disaster and Ahmad Bradshaw cannot stay healthy so it’s time for a change. Andrew Luck deserves a running game to take some pressure off of him and Melvin Gordon is a homerun hitter at tailback. Gordon can fit into the high octane, big-play offense the Colts have and he will be a dynamic playmaker along with TY Hilton. Having a legitimate RB, and with some reinforcements on the offensive line either later in the draft or through free agency, will make Luck that much more amazing. Luck is a future MVP waiting to happen but the Colts will be a much tougher playoff team with an actual running game.
- Green Bay Packers (12-4) Shaq Thompson LB Washington
Thompson had a less than stellar combine performance which is why he’s still available here at #30. The Packers released AJ Hawk and Brad Jones and they should move Clay Matthews back to OLB so they need some ILBs otherwise they will be lining up with only 9 guys on the field. Thompson is versatile and while he isn’t big he is talented and he could be very good in Dom Capers defense. Thompson could be used in a variety of ways by Capers and his coverage skills could come in handy. Green Bay may need a new RT if Bryan Bulaga leaves in free agency and they need some depth on the defensive line but Thompson is too good to pass up. He wasn’t a workout star at the combine but the fact that he was as good as he was at Washington without ever focusing on one position means he could be fantastic once a team gets him, puts him at a position and lets him learn it completely.
- Seattle Seahawks (12-4) Dorial Green-Beckham WR Missouri/Oklahoma
If there was ever a coach that wouldn’t shy away from taking on the biggest risk in the draft it’s Pete Carroll. Green-Beckham is the gamble of the draft because he’s just as likely to end up suspended for pot smoking or some other transgression as he is to end up in a Pro Bowl. Carroll has had players with issues since his days at USC so he knows how to handle them and one thing he won’t do is allow any issues Green-Beckham may have to effect his club overall (he won’t let one guy’s issues hurt his franchise the way the Browns have allowed Josh Gordon to affect theirs). The Seahawks have a pretty good veteran group led by guys like Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner and that environment could be very good for Green-Beckham. I can’t bypass the issue that could arise given Green-Beckham’s past failed drug tests and the legality of marijuana in the state of Washington; someone will have to stay on him like a hawk (no pun intended). As far as on the field goes Green-Beckham is light years ahead of most of the Seahawks current WRs and he would pair very nicely with Doug Baldwin and actually relieve some of the pressure on Baldwin. At 6’5 237 lbs. and great speed Green-Beckham is a matchup nightmare for every team in the league.
- New England Patriots (12-4) Todd Gurley RB Georgia
The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl win but they still have a number of issues to deal with including the status of Darrelle Revis’ contract, the age of DT Vince Wilfork, the free agency of most of their RBs and the shape of their interior offensive line. I think they will keep S Devin McCourty and eventually work out a deal to extend Darrelle Revis and lower his cap number. If C Bryan Stork can stay healthy their interior offensive line should be fine. Vince Wilfork isn’t getting any younger and even if they can coax one more year out of him guys like Malcolm Brown and Jordan Phillips have to be in play here but the biggest question marks are at RB. Stevan Ridley is a free agent and there is no reason to bring him back, Shane Vereen is a free agent and he would be great to have back but it might be too expensive. LaGarrette Blount returned late in the season and played fine but he isn’t consistently what the Patriots need. Todd Gurley is a future star and he’s a power back that could be great with or without Vereen around. Gurley can play all three downs and he would be a great player to have to take some of the offensive pressure off of Tom Brady as he gets older. If the Patriots draft a CB or a WR I’m going to be sick to my stomach because Bill Belichick has a horrible track record with those two positions early in the draft. Gurley is coming off a knee injury but it doesn’t look like that will slow him down in his rookie year.
The other first round possibilities:
QB Brett Hundley (UCLA) – If there is a trade towards the end of the first round it is likely going to be for someone coming up to grab Hundley. He’s the only QB other than Winston and Mariota worth having in this draft.
WR Sammie Coates (Auburn) – Coates is a big, physical WR with good speed but his drops are a concern and it might push him down a little. He’s fighting with a couple of other WRs to maybe make the first round but he looks like a solid round two selection to me.
WR Devin Smith (Ohio St.) – The deep ball specialist actually looked good doing everything at the combine and he’s in the mix for the end of the first round. I couldn’t find a spot for him but that doesn’t mean someone else won’t.
WR/TE Devin Funchess (Michigan) – His 4.70 40 time at the combine has teams rethinking their stance on him being a WR but he really would need to bulk up a little to be a true TE. The ‘tweener label is hurting him right now.
OT Ereck Flowers (Miami) – I couldn’t find a place for Flowers and he’s a little limited by the fact that he seems like strictly a RT at the moment. His struggles during drills at the combine didn’t endear him to anyone but he would make a heck of second round RT for someone.
OG AJ Cann (South Carolina) – This is the one I struggled leaving out of the first round because he’s so good. I really considered him for the Patriots at #32 but couldn’t pull the trigger. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he goes in the first round and he might make my next mock draft depending on some free agency moves.
OLB Eli Harold (Virginia) – Harold had a very good workout at the combine but for some reason I still see him as a tough fit for a number of teams. He’s a very good pass rusher but I think he might struggle doing other LB things so I see him in the second round not the first.
LB Benardrick McKinney (Mississippi St.) – There is a very good chance I missed on putting him with the Green Bay Packers in round one because I like Shaq Thompson so much. McKinney would be a great fit at ILB in the Packers 3-4 defense so he might end up in the first round.
DT Malcolm Brown (Texas) – Brown could easily replace Davis or Goldman in any first round scenarios I just like the other two better. Brown won’t fall far if he falls out of the first round because he’s a real talent.
DT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma) – The 6’5 329 lbs. giant has the size everyone wants in a DT but he was only a redshirt sophomore this last season meaning he’s still pretty raw. He wasn’t stellar at the combine and teams will go back and look at the tape and see a guy that didn’t dominate like you would think. He’ll get drafted on potential alone but there are better DTs who are ready to contribute immediately and Phillips will need some time.
CB PJ Williams (Florida St.) – He’s a very talented cover man but his workout at the combine didn’t impress like others so he might fall and since this CB draft class isn’t great he may be available in the second round. He’s probably a steal in the second round but that happens from time to time.
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