Quarterbacks
Good News:
Jameis Winston’s passing display over the weekend showed that he may actually be able to be a starting QB in the NFL, possibly as early as next season. Winston made NFL caliber throws and looked good doing it. He ran slow in the 40 yard dash but that was expected because he isn’t a running QB and he is nowhere near the athlete Marcus Mariota is. Everyone always wants to compare prospects to previous NFL players (I love to do it too) and the nice comparison (I think) for Winston was Ben Roethlisberger (I’m not sure if the unproven sexual assault allegation was meant to be a part of that comparison or just an unfortunate coincidence). He’s big and strong and can move around in the pocket well enough to avoid a sack (I think that was the intended comparison). The not so nice comparison was to Byron Leftwich (he runs about that well) or JaMarcus Russell (he would be that big of a bust if he tanks).
If you’re the Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota made it possible for you to take him and not have everyone think you’re nuts. Mariota showed off his impressive athleticism by running the fastest 40 time of any QB (4.53) and he looked pretty good throwing the ball even if he wasn’t quite on Winston’s level yet. Mariota has a lot farther to come than Winston when it comes to NFL passing but the fact that he wasn’t that far behind and he hasn’t been able to fully workout because of a shoulder injury from the National Championship game means he could get there sooner than anyone thinks. Mariota might not go to Tennessee #2 overall but he just put himself in the conversation.
Brett Hundley looked good enough to possibly be a first rounder when we get to April. There are teams towards the end of the first round like Arizona, Dallas and Pittsburgh that have aging or injury prone QBs with no real heir apparent on the roster and grabbing a guy like Hundley isn’t such a crazy idea. You could stash him for a year or two (or three) and then have someone to go to that already knows something about being an NFL QB (ask the Packers how that worked out for them). Hundley would be best with a year to get some reps under center and learn an NFL offense and if he learned under a coach like Bruce Arians in Arizona for a year he could be scary good. Another thing I really like about Hundley is that he was one of the more articulate players at the combine and he comes off as the type of guy you want as the face of your franchise. He and Mariota have that in common.
Bad News:
While Bryce Petty looked good enough to solidify his spot as the fourth QB in this draft it was as much a product of the underwhelming nature of this class as it was him. This is a frighteningly thin group of QBs and if more than six (maybe?) QBs get drafted this season I’ll be shocked. I wouldn’t pick any outside of the top 4 but it won’t be that low of a number. Garrett Grayson is #5 and he didn’t even work out at the combine and I’m not even going to venture a guess on #6.
Running backs
Good News:
Northern Iowa RB David Johnson looked seriously impressive this weekend and he kept the buzz from his Senior Bowl performance rolling right along. Johnson measured in a 6’1 224 lbs. and he ran a 4.5 40 and had a vertical jump of over 41 inches. His tape shows a good pass catcher and solid runner so the speed and explosion he showed in the drills should convince NFL teams that he can actually translate that to the field. He probably had the best day overall of all of the running backs.
Michigan St. RB Jeremy Langford ran the fastest 40 time of all the RBs which probably moves him up into a mid-round grade. Florida St.’s Karlos Williams ran 4.48 and he weights 230 lbs. so that should help him after a disappointing season.
Bad News:
Almost all the RBs looked pedestrian with those few notable exceptions. Melvin Gordon ran a 4.52 40 and while that isn’t slow that doesn’t coincide with the speed you see on film from him. Gordon is supposed to be the guy that runs away from people on his 60 yard runs but his 40 time didn’t show that. Having Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman sitting out drills due to injury didn’t help the group overall as they are two of the better prospects. Ameer Abdullah was seen as a top prospect possibility and then he ran 4.6 in the 40, that might not be a problem except Abdullah is a 5’8 205 lbs. and being small and slow is a bad combination. Miami’s Duke Johnson was the other smaller back like Abdullah and he only ran a 4.54 so he wasn’t blazing either and that could hurt him too.
Random Thoughts:
In general the RB group was not fast but I think there is an explanation why. All of the legitimate top prospects in this RB class are big backs with good size including the “speedy” Gordon. Gordon weights 215 lbs. so he isn’t small at all. Take a look at the weights for some of the other top guys; Jay Ajayi 221, David Johnson 224, Karlos Williams 230, TJ Yeldon 226 and even though he didn’t work out Todd Gurley is 222. I explained in my pre-combine rankings about how the RB position in the NFL has changed and bigger backs have taken over so even though most of these guys didn’t break 4.5 in the 40 I still think there are plenty of good RBs in this draft.
Wide Receivers
Good News:
Kevin White lit up the joint and sent his stock soaring. I’m still a big Amari Cooper fan and he’s more polished than White but when a guy is 6’3 215 lbs. and runs a 4.35 in the 40 everyone takes notice. Most notably would be the Raiders, Jets and Rams who all have top 10 picks. White has a legitimate chance to pass Cooper because of his workout and even though Al Davis passed away a few years ago his ghost might just be too temped to grab a WR with that kind of size/speed combination. I’ve liked White all year long but he just aced his job interview.
Chris Conley out of Georgia went to the combine as a no name player hoping to get some notice and he succeeded. He was fast (4.35 in the 40) explosive (45 inches in the vert, top mark of the combine) and he looked good in all the other drills. He wasn’t productive at Georgia like these numbers would lead you to believe but he’ll make every scout go back and rewatch every one of his catches this season. He went from afterthought to drafted in the blink of an eye.
Jaelen Strong went into the combine as the guy on the cusp of the first round but was seen as a physical WR with decent speed. 4.44 seconds after he started his 40 yard run that all changed. Most scouts and evaluators have a pretty good idea what players’ times are going to be in the 40 and when a guy surprises you and runs faster he gets a buzz going. Strong wasn’t seen as fast WR but 4.44 seconds for a guy built like him opened some eyes. He’s going in the first round.
Dorial Green-Beckham still has lots of questions to answer about his off the field issues and teams will have to make a determination if they want to draft him based on that evaluation because everybody should want to draft the player that worked out on the field in Indy. Green-Beckham is 6’5 237 lbs. and he ran the 40 in 4.49 seconds which is insane. He is basically Calvin Johnson physically and no one wants to pass on that, unless he’s a total headcase.
One more quick note, Nelson Agholor out of USC is still underrated and he had a damn good combine. To me he passed Funchess for sure and someone is going to get a steal in the second round.
Bad News:
It’s a great thing when you best the expectations of everyone at the combine the way that Jaelen Strong did, the inverse is also true. A stunning failure that makes every scout question everything he’s seen of you is not what you want from the biggest job interview of your life. Michigan WR Devin Funchess just sent every scout back to the film on him but not in the way Chris Conley did. Funchess ran the 40 in 4.70 seconds which is far too slow for teams that want him to be an outside WR. Funchess wants to be a WR but his time is going to make teams re-think that and he may end up at TE. He probably should be a TE and it might be best for his career. At 6’4 232 lbs. he could be a move TE in the right offense, it didn’t help Funchess that shortly after he ran his 40 Green-Beckham stepped up to the line an inch taller and five pounds heavier and was .21 seconds faster than him. Funchess lost ground to Strong, Green-Beckham and a few other WRs if he stays at that position. He is also hurt a bit by the fact that he is a small TE prospect and not a large WR prospect.
Tight Ends
Good News: Devin Funchess might be a TE now.
Bad News: Devin Funchess might be the best TE now.
Random Thoughts: Maxx Williams did nothing to hurt his status at the combine but he didn’t exactly light it up. He isn’t an uber-athlete he is just a solid all-around TE. Not a single TE did anything to distinguish themselves and right now it’s a dogfight between TE, QB and Safety for which position is the worst one in the draft. Teams that need a QB, TE or Safety better grab them fast because Winston, Mariota, Hundley, Williams, Funchess and Landon Collins might be the only ones in their position groups that should go in the first 3 rounds (that’s 6 prospects in 3 rounds).
Offensive Linemen
Good News:
Brandon Scherff had the third fastest 40 time of all the OTs and the fourth fastest of all O-linemen and while he only did 23 reps on the bench press I didn’t read a word anywhere questioning his strength (not surprising). Scherff is not considered an elite LT prospect but in this draft neither is anyone else so he still sits atop most teams’ offensive linemen boards. I think Scherff showed people enough athleticism to make teams think he can be a LT if need be but he’s more likely to get drafted by a team seeking a RT with the possibility to shift inside and be an elite guard.
This draft has a lot of solid o-line prospects but just doesn’t have an elite LT, sure-fire top 5 kind of player. La’el Collins, Andrus Peat, TJ Clemmings, Ereck Flowers, Daryl Williams, Ty Sambrailo, Jake Fisher and DJ Humphries can all be solid OTs in the league. AJ Cann, Tre Jackson, Ali Marpet, Cameron Erving and Laken Tomlinson make up a very nice group inside too.
Ali Marpet the Division III prospect out of Hobart (don’t look at me I have no idea where that is) had a really good Senior Bowl and followed that up with the fastest 40 time of all the offensive linemen and he has a legitimate shot at a second round pick. It’s a huge transition from DIII to the NFL but Marpet more than held his own at the Senior Bowl and combine just showed off he physical skills that made that possible. He’s a feel good story for draft day, you’re welcome ESPN and the NFL Network.
Bad News:
There is no elite LT in this draft. Sorry to the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Falcons, Giants and Rams all teams in the top 10 that would have to seriously consider grabbing an elite LT if one were available, better luck next year.
There is a video from the drills portion of the combine featuring Ereck Flowers lined up as a RT and doing a kick-out drill and to say he gets beat badly would be a massive understatement. Flowers is a better prospect than this (seriously he never gets within 4 feet of laying a hand on the defender, it’s embarrassing) and if I were him I would spend the next two months trying to scrub that tape from existence.
Random Thoughts:
There was this buzz at the beginning of the combine that Florida junior OT DJ Humphries will jump up and show that he’s worthy of being a first round draft pick. It started well for him at the weigh-in as Humphries came in at 307 lbs. which is 12-15 lbs. heavier than his playing weight for the Gators. The knock on Humphries has been that he was too light as no one in the NFL is looking to start a LT that’s 292-295 lbs. He showed well in drills and in the 40 even with the extra weight and if teams go off of his workouts he has a legitimate chance to go in the first round even after he was given a “return to school” designation by the NFL draft advisory board. Here’s my issue, watch the tape not the workout, Humphries has a long way to go to be a good NFL OT let alone an elite one. Even with extra weight I’m not sure he’ll ever be a dominant run blocker because he doesn’t have the drive for it. He is extremely athletic and that’s great but he uses it as a crutch and doesn’t stay sound fundamentally when he blocks and that will get him beat in the NFL. If a team has a good tough o-line coach and a year to work with him they could have something but he’s raw and needs time. There are a number of solid OTs that can help right away in this class but I wouldn’t count on Humphries to be one of those guys. Of course there is a chance that the dumpster fire that was the Florida Gators offense for the past couple of years was just masking how good Humphries really was.
Pass Rushers (DE/OLB)
Good News:
Dante Fowler is a 261 lbs. menace and he may end up being a top 3 pick. Fowler was fast, fluid and explosive and his relentlessness and aggression are obvious on tape and everyone is raving about him. I love Fowler’s versatility and I think he proved he can handle being a DE, an OLB or both and the teams at the top of the first round like Tennessee and Jacksonville have to seriously consider him.
Vic Beasley was impressive because he weighed in at 245 lbs. which is a good 15-20 lbs. heavier than he played at Clemson and yet he ran a 4.53 40 and had a vertical of 41 inches. Size, speed and explosion are exactly what teams want from a pass rusher and Beasley just launched himself into a Von Miller comparison. Beasley is a legitimate top 10 pick and if the Redskins grab him at #5 overall as Brian Orakpo’s replacement I won’t be the least bit shocked.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa is a bit of a freak. At 6’3 and almost 270 lbs. he ran 4.62 in the 40 and had a 39 inch vertical leap. He just went from possible first round pick to mid-first round pick without a doubt. Owa (that’s what I’m calling him from now on) showed the versatility to play some OLB (even at 270 lbs.) and he’s just too good of an athlete and too versatile of a player to fall very far.
Alvin “Bud” Dupree out of Kentucky was even more impressive than Owa. Dupree is 6’4 270 lbs. he ran a 4.56 40 and had a 42 inch vertical. That’s an insane combination and what’s even more insane is that while Dupree is most likely a 4-3 DE he actually looks really comfortable dropping into coverage. He still is a little raw as a pass rusher and he needs more moves but he is a special athlete.
Bad News:
Randy Gregory didn’t have a bad combine and by most accounts he looked good in drills even the LB drills which is not his natural position. There’s the issue for Gregory. He is 6’5 but he only weighed in at 235 lbs. and while I’m sure he dropped weight to be faster and more mobile for the LB drills it might backfire. Gregory is best suited for 4-3 DE and 235 lbs. is way too light for that. While his 4.64 40 and 36.5 inch vertical were solid numbers they weren’t spectacular and unfortunately for Gregory his position group had some very impressive prospects. While Gregory’s performance shouldn’t have hurt him the fact that Fowler, Beasley, Dupree and Owa were so spectacular might have.
Linebackers (non-pass rushing group)
Good News:
That sound you here is crickets.
Bad News:
The top LB at this position is supposed to be Shaq Thompson from Washington but he measured only 6’0 228 lbs. and then he ran a 4.64 40 with only a 33.5 inch vertical. If you’re going to be an undersized LB you need to be fast and explosive, I still like Thompson but he hurt his stock with this performance. He’s a back-end of the first round prospect now not a first half of the first round guy. He actually didn’t have the worst day. TCU’s Paul Dawson had an abysmal day. Dawson is only 6’0 235 lbs. so he’s not big, he had a 28 inch vertical so he’s not explosive and he ran 4.93 in the 40 he’s not fast. Just for comparison Hobart OG Ali Marpet was 6’4 307 lbs. and he ran a 4.98 and had a 30.5 inch vert, it’s not a good sign when the DIII OG that’s more than 70 lbs. heavier than you is comparable. Some say Miami MLB Denzel Perryman had a tough day running 4.78 and jumping only 32 inches but I’ve known all along that Perryman was two-down run stuffing thumper and not much else so I’m not surprised by it.
Defensive Backs
Good News:
I think Trae Waynes got sick of hearing about how Marcus Peters would be the top CB in this draft if not for the character questions and so he went out and made everyone talk about him. He blazed the 40 in 4.31 seconds and looked incredible skilled and athletic. He may have just put himself into the conversation for a top 15 pick, that’s a good day at the combine.
Jalen Collins looked good too and he ran a sub 4.5 40 and he just put himself in position to fight for the #2 spot behind Waynes. Collins is raw but coachable and he stood out.
Ronald Darby, Charles Gaines and Senquez Golson all ran fast and put themselves in position to move up a round or two and that will make teams happy because while the star power might be missing from the CB group there is some solid depth that looked good in Indy.
Bad News:
As bad as Paul Dawson’s combine showing was his former TCU teammate S Chris Hackett tried to make him look good. Hackett left TCU early and after his workout in Indy he is likely to be one of those early entry prospects that goes undrafted. He is 6’0 195 lbs. which is small for a safety and then he ran a 4.81 40 which is ridiculously slow. If you want to be a safety in the NFL at less than 200 lbs. you better have great speed. I said the safety class was bad but considering before the combine Hackett was one of the more intriguing prospects things just got a little worse, I didn’t think that was possible.
Random Thoughts:
Three of the top CB prospects; Marcus Peter, PJ Williams and Quinten Rollins all ran fairly slow 40 times. Peters (4.53) Williams (4.57) and Rollins (4.57) all play faster than these times and they are skilled athletes with good footwork and instincts. These times mean that Waynes is certainly ahead of them and Jalen Collins probably passes then on some boards but I’m still very impressed with Peters and think he’s a top player in the NFL and Williams and Rollins can be too. This is one of those times where the combine result doesn’t change my view of certain prospects. It’s comparable to how Brandon Scherff only did 23 reps on the bench press but no thinks he isn’t strong enough because we all know better, these guys are plenty fast enough.
The Hott Read 