It’s time to move on from the depressing subject that is the Iowa Hawkeye football program and focus on my favorite sporting event of the year the NFL Draft. I’ve spent a lot of time looking at a lot of prospects and I’m going to rank my top 5 or top 10 or top 12 (depending on position) and give you a little preview of what to expect in the draft. Some positions are deep (WRs and pass rushers) and some are not (QB, TE and Safety). There are players that will rise and players that will fall after the combine due to a number of reasons and yes I’ll watch as much of the combine as I can. I’m hoping to go to the NFL Draft this year in Chicago but we will see if I can get tickets and/or anyone to go with me. I’m accepting volunteers if you’re interested.
Quarterbacks
If you want to compete for a Super Bowl in the NFL you have to have a QB and if you don’t believe me just look at the list of QB’s for the final eight teams in the playoffs this season; Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco and Cam Newton. Unfortunately for so many teams that are still searching for answers at the league’s most important position this draft doesn’t offer a lot of help and the help it does offer has lots of question marks. I was going to rank the top 10 QB’s in this draft but I can’t find that many to rank so I’m going with the top 5 instead. There are two likely first round picks, one that might sneak into the first round but should probably go in the second and then no one else should go before the fourth round but given the sheer number of teams that need to address the position some of these guys and many other could get drafted way too high. By my estimation four teams need to immediately address the position (Tampa Bay, NY Jets, St. Louis and Houston), four teams are crossing their fingers that someone already on the roster is the answer (Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger, Washington with Robert Griffin III, Cleveland with Johnny Manziel and Buffalo with EJ Manuel). Two teams that have to address the fact that they have aging QBs with no legitimate heir apparent (New Orleans with Drew Brees and Arizona with Carson Palmer) and three teams hoping their guys bounce back but they may want to hedge their bets (Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia). Cutler and Kaepernick regressed last year and are hoping that coaching changes solve their issues while Chip Kelly is hoping that either Nick Foles recovers from his injury and regains his form or that he can swing a trade for his former Oregon QB Marcus Mariota. By my count that’s 13 teams looking for QB help and most of them are going to be extremely disappointed by this draft. Here are my rankings for now.
- Marcus Mariota Jr. Oregon
I know the bloom is off the Mariota rose at the moment and everyone is jumping on the Jameis Winston bandwagon for the #1 pick and it may very well turn out that way but I’m not a big believer in either of these two as a franchise QB. Mariota had a rough National Championship game against Ohio St. and they exposed some flaws in his game but he is still a pretty good QB with some exceptional physical gifts and great character. Winston has the better arm and he’s clearly the physical specimen NFL teams look for but Mariota has a lot of game experience, his arm is good enough and the odds of him ending up in jail are far lower than those of Winston. Mariota has to work on his accuracy throwing NFL routes and that’s going to be difficult given the fact he is dealing with a shoulder injury that occurred during the Ohio St. game. His fall on draft boards has already begun and if he can’t throw until later in the scouting process that fall will continue but for his sake that might be a good thing. Rumors are swirling that Chip Kelly wants to make a play for his former college QB and that would be almost impossible if Mariota was going to go in the top 5. Philadelphia has the 20th pick in the draft and while they could couple it with Nick Foles that doesn’t vault them into the top 5. If they don’t want to mortgage their future by giving up multiple #1 picks in the future (and just ask the Redskins how that turned out for them) they better hope Mariota drops closer to #10. No one questions Mariota’s character and everyone agrees he’s the type of guy you want leading your franchise but production on the field is still the primary focus.
- Jameis Winston Redshirt Sophomore Florida St.
Whether it’s Tampa Bay at #1, Tennessee at #2 or someone like the NY Jets at #6 someone is going to roll the dice on Winston and it will probably be fairly early in the draft. Winston is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He has every physical tool you could want in a QB at 6’4 230 lbs. with a rocket arm, mobility and pocket awareness. The problem is that his scouting report is going to have more red flags than Arlington National Cemetery has American flags on Memorial Day. Winston has been accused of sexual assault; something the NFL certainly can’t turn a blind eye towards given recent history, he was caught shoplifting and admitted to it (using a myriad of lame excuses). He was questioned by police about someone shooting out windows with a BB gun and he was accused of stealing soda at a Burger King. Obviously the last three incidents wouldn’t be a big deal but couple them with the more serious accusation of sexual assault and teams may form a picture of the type of guy Winston is and that may be hard to break. Johnny Manziel’s less than stellar year with Cleveland will give many teams pause in evaluating Winston. Even if teams believe Winston isn’t guilty of the sexual assault allegations there is still a picture of an immature kid that isn’t ready to be the face of a franchise. Winston’s teammates seem to love him and he checks all the boxes on the scouting report but as far as being a #1 overall pick he is the equivalent of buying a Powerball ticket.
- Brett Hundley Jr. UCLA
Hundley will probably be the biggest beneficiary of the total lack of quality QBs in this draft. Couple that with at least eight teams looking for solutions sooner rather than later and he might just jump into the first round. Mariota and Winston are likely high first round picks Hundley probably should be a second round choice, however, while the drop-off from Mariota/Winston to Hundley is a step the drop-off from Hundley to the #4 QB is a cliff. Teams that miss out on the top two guys may look to jump back into the end of the first round and grab Hundley before he makes it to where those QB needy teams sit early in the second round. Hundley played a lot of games at UCLA and while he has experience he is not a finished product. He is athletic with a good arm and brings loads of potential but he is far from a sure thing. If Mariota and Winston sit out the scouting combine like most top QB prospects do Hundley could make some noise with a good day throwing. He isn’t the elite athlete Mariota is and he doesn’t quite have the size or arm of Winston but Hundley might be the safer choice than both of them. Mariota may have been a product of Oregon’s offense and Winston may be a time bomb waiting to go off. Hundley ran a system at UCLA that would allow him to transition easier than Mariota and he doesn’t have Winston’s checkered history.
- Bryce Petty Sr. Baylor
Let’s get something straight about Petty right off the bat, he is better than being some “product of the system” at Baylor and he’s a solid QB prospect, however, being in that system at Baylor may have dulled some of his skills that he would need to be a top NFL starter. It will certainly take some time for him to get used to taking the snap from center given that that never happens in Baylor’s offense. The Baylor offense is designed to create mismatches and make reads very easy and Petty did it well but the NFL is a whole new ballgame. Petty has good size and better athleticism than you might expect but he didn’t have to make a lot of NFL throws in college. Someone might take him in the late second round or early third if they panic but he’s probably a fourth rounder at best.
- Umm….well…give me a minute….still thinking…hold on…let me check something.
So here are the names of the three other draftable prospects at QB; Colorado St.’s Garrett Grayson, East Carolina’s Shane Carden and Oregon St.’s Sean Mannion. Grayson has his supporters and at times he looks like he could actually be something but other times he looks rough. He reminds me a little bit of Tony Romo when he just entered the league. Romo needed a lot of coaching and he took it all in and made himself an NFL starting QB. Grayson isn’t big at 6’2 and he doesn’t have a rocket arm but he can move around, keep his eyes down field and make a play. Under the right QB coach he could be an NFL starter in 3-4 years. Carden came up big from time to time at East Carolina but I just don’t see the arm or the awareness to become an NFL starter. He looks like a solid back-up prospect but that’s about all. Mannion is a bit of a disappointment as he went into the season as a guy that really could have risen up the draft boards but he just didn’t develop. He’s 6’6 and almost 230 lbs. so he certainly looks the part and he’s been compared to Tampa Bay’s Mike Glennon and I’m still not sure if that’s a complement or not. Mannion played for Mike Riley at Oregon St. so his transition to a pro-style offense should be seamless, that’s a big advantage for him. Someone might find a steal in the fourth or fifth round but anything higher than that is pushing it.
Drafting anyone outside of these seven players at QB and that team is simply drafting a practice squad player. Taking a flyer on Alabama’s Blake Sims, Washington St.’s Connor Halliday or Southeast Louisiana’s Bryan Bennett is just spending a draft pick hoping for a miracle.
Next year’s class: One of the main reasons why this year’s class is so thin was that even though Mariota, Winston and Hundley came out early several underclassmen that could have provided depth decided to return for next year and try to improve their draft stock. Michigan St.’s Connor Cook, TCU’s Trevone Boykin, USC’s Cody Kessler, Ohio St.’s Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan were all potential early entrants that chose to return to college. They join Penn St.’s Christian Hackenberg (not eligible for 2015) to make what could be a very nice QB class next year. The early money would be on Cook and Hackenberg to be the top QB because they fit the NFL mold best while Boykin and Jones offer superior athleticism (assuming Jones can beat out JT Barrett and/or Miller, that’s not a given). Kessler had a great junior year at USC and he’ll have to repeat it with most of his skill position talent gone. Hogan is hoping to rebound from a less than stellar season and my early dark horse NFL prospect no one is talking about is Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld, he fits the NFL profile he just plays on a lousy team.
The Hott Read 