2014 NFL Predictions

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Philadelphia

Green Bay

New Orleans

San Francisco

Wild Card Teams

Seattle

Arizona

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco over New Orleans

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

New England

Cincinnati

Indianapolis

Denver

Wild Card Teams

Kansas City

Baltimore

AFC Championship Game

Denver over New England

Super Bowl Prediction (if you read last year’s you know I’m terrible at this)

Denver over San Francisco

 

Individual Player Awards

 

Most Valuable Player:

Top Contenders:  QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Adrian Peterson, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Jamaal Charles

My Dark Horse Candidate:  QB Matthew Stafford

            I picked Manning last year and he ran away with the award but I also picked Matt Ryan as my dark horse candidate and he had a terrible season.  Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady are perennial candidates and any of them could win it at any time.  Peterson is a known commodity and he’ll carry the Vikings offense but the Vikings won’t be good enough to really get Peterson into the conversation.  McCoy and Charles are big time players for their respective teams and they put up huge numbers but their teams aren’t quite good enough to really put these two into the mix but they are expected to be good so it’s not like they turned their teams’ fortunes around.  Stafford has the benefit of the Lions not being great and he is just on the cusp of being something special.  If he makes the leap and gets the Lions into the playoffs or possibly wins the NFC North division he will make a case for himself.  He’s set up to do it because he has the best WR on the planet in Calvin Johnson, finally has a legitimate complementary WR in Golden Tate and the draft brought him a nice weapon in TE Eric Ebron.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell give him a nice RB tandem to count on and if new head coach Jim Caldwell can harness Stafford’s god given talent he can be as good as any QB in the league.

My Pick:  Peyton Manning

Like I’m dumb enough to go against him in this race.  Manning will throw for over 5000 yards and probably close to 50 TDs again and I have the Broncos winning the Super Bowl so I obviously believe he’s going to have a great year.

Offensive Player of the Year

I went into great detail last year about how Adrian Peterson could win this award instead of the MVP and then Manning made a joke of this voting.  I’m going Manning because not going with him is just crazy.  5000 yards and 50 TDs make voting moot.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders:  CB Richard Sherman, LB Luke Kuechly, DE JJ Watt, OLB Clay Matthews, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Robert Quinn, LB Vontaze Burfict

My Dark Horse Candidate: DE Chandler Jones

Another year and another possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate taken out by an early season suspension, last year it was my pick Von Miller and this year it’s returning sack leader Robert Mathis of the Colts.  Mathis was fantastic last season but he will serve a four game suspension so it will put him behind in the race.  Sherman is arguably the best CB in the league but he won’t get a lot of stats because with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond gone no one will throw anywhere near him, okay maybe Colin Kaepernick because he just can’t help himself but no one else will.  Kuechly was phenomenal in the middle of Carolina’s defense last year and he earned last season’s Defensive Player of the Year award.  He racks up tackles left and right and that won’t stop but it’s a tough award to pull off twice in a row, he set the bar so high it will be tough to clear it.  Watt won it two years ago and with Jadeveon Clowney now bringing the heat from the other side maybe Watt puts up huge numbers again.  Clay Matthews can’t be counted out because he can be a menace and if he stays healthy and Julius Peppers or Nick Perry can give him a little help he could be big again.  DE Robert Quinn almost led the league in sacks and he has a very solid chance to do so this year except rookie DT Aaron Donald might steal some from him.  LB Vontaze Burfict has emerged as a star on the Bengals defense and he’s switching to weakside linebacker which means he may rack up even more tackles than before.  DE Chandler Jones was very good last year and he’s getting better all the time.  He did it with very little help from the interior of the Patriots defensive line due to injuries but if Vince Wilfork can come back healthy Jones could be a breakout candidate.

My Pick:  CB Patrick Peterson

The argument against Richard Sherman being the best CB in the NFL is Patrick Peterson.  Peterson should have more chances to make plays this year on defense because the Cardinals signed free agent Antonio Cromartie to play the opposite side.  Seattle’s defense got all the press last season and they earned it but Arizona’s defense was pretty good too.  Peterson is a superb athlete and he makes plays as a punt returner too so his profile should be high enough to possibly get recognition as Defensive Player of the Year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: WR Sammy Watkins, RB Bishop Sankey WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Brandin Cooks, LT Jake Matthews

My Dark Horse Candidates: One of these backup RBs will take over the starting job at some point; Andre Williams (Giants), Terrence West (Browns), Carlos Hyde (49ers), Davonte Freeman (Falcons)

WRs Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin are immediately the top WR on their respective teams so that gives them a leg up.  RB Bishop Sankey is still listed behind veteran Shonn Greene but I can’t see that lasting because Sankey is a better all-around back.  Jordan Matthews has looked great in camp with the Eagles and they have a hole to fill with DeSean Jackson gone, in Chip Kelly’s offense with Nick Foles throwing to him Matthews should shine.  It would be pretty rare for an offensive tackle to win an award like this but Matthews is stepping into an important role on a team trying to turn itself around after last year’s debacle.  If he can keep Matt Ryan upright he will get some attention.  As for my dark horse candidates I think Williams has the best chance to just outright win the job from the veteran in front of him.  Rashad Jennings is an unknown commodity as a starting RB and while Williams gives the Giants virtually nothing in the passing game he is a fantastic runner.  West and Freeman have the best shots of taking over for an injured starter because there is basically no chance Ben Tate or Steven Jackson makes it through the year healthy.  Carlos Hyde has the most upside if he gets a chance because he’s a beast of a runner and the 49ers are a run heavy team.  However, Hyde is the least likely to get a chance because apparently Frank Gore is immortal.

My Pick:  WR Brandin Cooks

One of the most productive WR in college football ever Cooks is ready from day one to contribute and he happens to play with one of the best QB in the game, has a genius offensive mind for a head coach and fills a specific spot in the offense.  The only thing that could hold Cooks back is the fact that Drew Brees has weapons like Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham but that never seemed to bother Darren Sproles.  Cooks is more receiver while Sproles was more running back but Cooks has a similar skill set and can line up wherever Sean Payton wants to put him.  This is the award where I think one of my dark horse candidates has the best chance to break through and if Frank Gore goes down early in the season I’m changing my choice to Hyde.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders:  OLB Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Khalil Mack, S Calvin Pryor, LB CJ Mosley, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB Jason Verrett, DT Aaron Donald

My Dark Horse Candidate:  ILB Christian Kirksey

Clowney is the big name but he’s been dinged up and he’s transitioning to OLB which he hasn’t played before, it might be a slow start for him.  Pryor is going to be Rex Ryan’s new enforcer in the back end of his defense and he should rack up some nice tackle numbers.  He very well could give the Jets back-to-back Defensive Rookies of the Year but I think he’ll come up short.  Mosley is built for the Ravens defense but he might be overshadowed by fellow ILB Daryl Smith who was fantastic last year.  Kyle Van Noy is going to be fantastic in Detroit but he’s playing OLB in a 4-3 defense which won’t lead to huge stats.  Verrett is the best man-to-man cover guy in San Diego but he hasn’t quite broken through yet to be a starter so he’s starting from behind.  The same thing is going on with Aaron Donald as the Rams have Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford ahead of him on the depth chart but he’s going to create havoc and his sack numbers might be too good to overlook even as a sub.  You can call me a homer for picking the former Hawkeye as my dark horse but I said when he got drafted that Cleveland was a great landing spot for him.  He’s almost a lock to start at ILB next to Karlos Dansby and he’s been awesome in camp.  Kirksey is a tackling machine and he’s a fantastic coverage LB so he may actually put up some stats on a solid Cleveland defense and get some notice.

My Pick: OLB Khalil Mack

I went back and forth between Mack, Van Noy and Kirksey as my final choice and I picked Mack because I think he will make more big plays (i.e. sacks) than any other rookie.  Mack is a star waiting to happen and the only thing that will hold him back will be the lack of talent around him.  That never seemed to slow him down in college so I think he’ll make the adjustment.  His opposite OLB Sio Moore was injured and will be out and that almost made me reconsider my choice because that really puts a bulls-eye on Mack now.  Moore is a talented guy that was going to benefit from Mack’s presence but now the pressure to make plays is all on Mack.

 

Thoughts and Predictions

• I was asked what I thought of the Patriots trade of LG Logan Mankins to the Buccaneers for a fourth round pick and TE Tim Wright. I love what Mankins has been for the Pats but he wasn’t great last year and he got his Pro Bowl bid by reputation not performance. Wright is a TE in the Aaron Hernandez mold (minus the homicidal tendencies) and I like the idea of having Gronk and a TE like Wright working together again. Mankins is scheduled to make over $6 million as a guard and he has fallen off the last few years. I’m all for this trade…now if the Patriots would just find a damn WR that can go deep they would be set.
• I think the Buccaneers realize in about week 4 or 5 that Josh McCown has been a backup for a long time for a reason. I don’t know if Mike Glennon is the answer either and knowing Lovie Smith he will be too conservative to go away from McCown but perhaps offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford will convince him.
• The coaching carousel is always interesting and some coaches are obviously in more peril than others. Joe Philbin (Miami), Dennis Allen (Oakland) and Mike Smith (Atlanta) cannot afford bad seasons or they could get the quick hook. Philbin is on thin ice after last year’s bullying problems and not a lot of progress being made. Allen could be in trouble because he coaches the Raiders, they are terrible and they have no patience. Smith got a mulligan for last year because of the massive injuries but he hasn’t won as much as the team would like and another bad year would make it hard for the front office to not look elsewhere. Rex Ryan (NY Jets) and Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) seem safe but their teams are treading water. Ryan is already on his third or fourth life in New York but the team has to show something and if the Geno Smith thing doesn’t work out it may be time for Rex to go. Mike Tomlin is a good coach and his team has had some turnover in the last few years so it’s not all his fault. While the Steelers organization is all about stability another mediocre year would have the natives restless. Gus Bradley (Jaguars) probably gets a reprieve since the Jags just drafted their QB of the future but still don’t plan to play him but if the defense (Bradley’s calling card) doesn’t show something the team may decide that their QB of the future needs an offensive minded head coach. Mike Pettine (Cleveland) makes my list simply because the Browns seem to like to change coaches every year and I’m not sure the team is going to have a stellar season. The two most interesting coaching jobs to watch are Jason Garrett (Dallas) and Tom Coughlin (NY Giants). Jerry Jones has given Garrett more chances than Rex Ryan has gotten but what he didn’t give him was a defense. If the Cowboys offense isn’t spectacular and the defense is as bad as they seem the team could go 2-14 and Jones is going to have to explain how he can seriously stick with Garrett. If the Giants are bad, and that’s a distinct possibility, Coughlin might call it a career. He has a Hall of Fame caliber resume and if it looks like the team needs a change he is more likely to walk away than to get fired. Here’s my bold prediction for coaching…Tom Coughlin retires at the end of the season and the new Giants head coach is Bill Cowher.
• My breakout players; some rookies, some just guys who get a chance to shine.On Defense: Patriots DE Chandler Jones, Raiders OLB Khalil Mack, Browns ILB Christian Kirksey, 49ers FS Eric Reid, Ravens FS Terrence Brooks (once he gets his chance).
• On Offense: Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Giants RB Andre Williams, Packers WR Jarrett Boykin, Saints WR Brandin Cooks, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders, Cardinals RB Andre Ellington and the late addition to the group, new Patriots TE Tim Wright, he just went from Josh McCown as his QB to Tom Brady.
• I said in my Power Rankings that the NY Giants had the worst LB corps in the league but the Atlanta Falcons are trying hard to prove me wrong. The Falcon’s defense could make it a long year in Atlanta.
• I was going to predict that second round QB Derek Carr would be the first rookie QB to start a game this season and then the Raiders beat me to the punch and named him their opening day starter. Carr was considerably better than Matt Schaub in the preseason but I fear for Derek Carr’s health behind that Raider offensive line. Word of advice for Carr, get rid of the ball quickly and duck.
• So Carr is the first rookie QB to get to start this year but he won’t be the last. It’s just a matter of time before Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater start. Manziel may be the first one in of those three and even though the Jags say they don’t plan to use Bortles I don’t believe them. Bridgewater is my favorite but he actually stands the least chance because Matt Cassel can run Norv Turner’s offense and Cassel actually can win games in Minnesota. Here are my predictions; Maziel starts week 5, right after the Browns bye week, Bortles starts week 7 vs. Cleveland (the battle of the rookie QBs) and Bridgewater takes over in week 14. By week 14 the Vikings will officially be out of the playoff hunt and it will be time to move on.
• Michael Sam was understandably cut from the St. Louis Rams on the final cut down day and they didn’t add him to the practice squad because of their depth at DE. He just signed on with the Dallas Cowboys practice squad and once he gets up to speed on their defense I think he will make the 53 man roster at some point. The Cowboys defense is terrible and they can use all the help they can get, smart move by Sam to go there after not getting signed to St. Louis’ practice squad. When you are a free agent looking to make a team sign with one that is weak at your position.
• Andy Dalton will win his first playoff game this year…hey it has to happen at some point right?
• Ryan Mallet will start more games for the Texans than Ryan Fitzpatrick. It shouldn’t take Mallet that much time to get up to speed on an offense similar to the one he ran in New England. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will thank God a hundred times for a QB that can actually throw it to them more than 20 yards down the field.
• Last season I said WR Mike Wallace would disappoint after signing a huge contract with the Dolphins and he did to a large extent, he wasn’t completely abysmal but he wasn’t that good either. This year that guy is Jets WR Eric Decker, the difference this year is that it isn’t Decker’s fault. He’s a talented guy that just traded in Peyton Manning for Geno Smith and Decker isn’t really a #1 WR. He has virtually no help in the passing game so his stats will be way down, I don’t think he breaks 1000 yards receiving.
• Other disappointing players this year: Panthers QB Cam Newton-you can’t lose that much OL protection and WR production and not decline. Colts RB Trent Richardson-not a surprise at all but I think this will be the end of a short career for Richardson. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch-it’s a good thing the Seahawks have Christine Michael and Robert Turbin because Lynch has way too many miles on his legs, it’s going to bite them this year. Vikings WR Corderrelle Patterson-he was really good last year but for some reason I’m feeling a sophomore slump.
• There are two guys in make-or-break years for their careers and they are Titans QB Jake Locker and Saints RB Mark Ingram. If Locker can stay healthy I think Ken Whisenhunt is just the guy to turn him around. He has a solid offensive line and Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are good WRs. The thing that would help the most is if WR Justin Hunter can breakout this year, he’s supremely talented and just has to keep his head on straight. Ingram is going to get his best and final chance to prove he can carry the load. Pierre Thomas is going to be the third down guy and Ingram has had a nice preseason so this is it. I actually think he has a good year, not good enough to call him a breakout star but good enough to stick around.
• Last season I was in two fantasy leagues, I finished third in one and was horrible in the other. In five years when I say I’m going to be in two leagues again please remind me that I hate being in multiple leagues. Nothing sucks more than having Peyton Manning on your team and having to face him in the same week. Oh and I’m going to win my league this year.