The not quite contenders
11. Kansas City Chiefs (2013 Record 11-5)
Oh what a difference a competent QB and a good head coach can have on a team. Andy Reid brought in Alex Smith and Kansas City went from being the worst team in the league to making the playoffs. Now we will see if Reid can keep this team in the playoffs with a reshuffled offensive line and not a lot of help offensively for RB Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs lost 3 starting offensive linemen and now they are counting on second year man Eric Fisher to play LT. He wasn’t overwhelming at RT last year but he may actually be more comfortable on the left side. QB Alex Smith just got a new contract extension (the Chiefs overpaid) but he is hardly a star and this offense will still rely heavily on the legs of Jamaal Charles. Dwayne Bowe is still the only real threat at WR and he wasn’t great last year either. The Chiefs love the potential of TE Travis Kelce who missed last season with an injury.
The Chiefs defense is built around the pass rushing prowess of OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and the Chiefs decided to add to that group with first round pick Dee Ford. They did suffer some defections in free agency and they cut starting CB Brandon Flowers late in the summer because he didn’t fit their scheme but the defense should be solid. NT Dontari Poe was fantastic last season and set the tone up front while CB Sean Smith and S Eric Berry played well in the secondary.
The Chiefs aren’t as good as the Broncos in the AFC West but they are one of the better teams in the AFC so they should make the playoffs. Andy Reid knows what he’s doing and if the pieced together offensive line can hold up the Chiefs should be fine.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (2013 Record 10-6)
First year head coach Chip Kelly took a 4-12 last place Eagles team to a 10-6 record and a division title, he turned Nick Foles into a franchise QB and then he invented sliced bread…um…that last part might not be true. Still Kelly took the league by storm and proved his innovative offensive mind could translate to the NFL, imagine what he could do if the Eagles could play defense. Kelly decided to add a level of difficulty to his second year and he jettisoned WR DeSean Jackson because all he did was have a career year. The Eagles get WR Jeremy Maclin back from injury and they drafted Jordan Matthews who has looked very good in the preseason so the offense again won’t be a problem. QB Nick Foles should be even more comfortable in Kelly’s offense in his second year and when in doubt he has one of the best running backs in football LeSean McCoy to hand off to. TEs Zach Ertz and Brent Celek, WR Riley Cooper and new addition RB Darren Sproles give Foles plenty of other weapons also.
The Eagles defense has to thank the offense for winning so many games in spite of them. The transition to a 3-4 defense is not going smoothly and many players are playing out of place. OLB Trent Cole doesn’t look comfortable after moving back from DE and at 31 years old he probably isn’t going to get comfortable. The Eagles reached in the first round of the draft to grab Louisville pass rusher Marcus Smith because he is comfortable playing in space and has natural athleticism for the job. There are talented players on defense but Cole isn’t the only one playing an unnatural position. NT Bennie Logan and DE Fletcher Cox would be better off in a 4-3 alignment playing next to each other in the middle. CBs Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams never really found their groove last year so both of them should improve this season but Nolan Carroll was brought in to push them. FS Malcolm Jenkins came over from New Orleans and he should be a nice upgrade.
A marginal improvement on defense would go a long way towards helping this team repeat as division champions but it may not even be needed. The Eagles offense should easily outpace Washington, New York and Dallas in the NFC East. One piece of advice if you’re a gambler, Eagles vs. Cowboys games I don’t care what the over/under is bet the over (my advice is given simply for comedic purposes and I will not be held responsible if you lose money because you are dumb enough to bet on sports).
9. Arizona Cardinals (2013 Record 10-6)
The combo of head coach Bruce Arians and QB Carson Palmer was as effective as I thought it would be. Palmer’s downfield throwing was exactly what Arians offense needed and WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd give Palmer a nice set of guys on the outside. They lost slot receiver Andre Roberts to free agency but rookie John Brown has been good in camp and should do well for them. It wasn’t rookie Stepfan Taylor that stepped in for Rashard Mendenhall last year it was then rookie Andre Ellington and with Mendenhall’s offseason retirement Ellington will get the call this year. He is a dynamic playmaker and he upgrades the running game. Speaking of upgrades the Cardinals finally filled the gaping hole at LT in free agency with the addition of Jared Veldheer and that is the first legitimate LT the Cardinals have had in a long time. The return of last year’s first round pick Jonathan Cooper to LG is another huge upgrade and the Cards may actually field a competent offensive line.
Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles did a fantastic job with this unit last year even though they were overlooked a bit because they play in the same division with Seattle and San Francisco. His job got a lot tougher this offseason when he lost ILB Karlos Dansby to free agency, ILB Daryl Washington to a suspension and just recently lost DE Darnell Dockett to an injury. There is still talent here especially in the secondary with CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie flanking rookie Deone Buchanan and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu. The Cardinals are hoping to squeeze one more year out of John Abraham at OLB because he provides the best pass rush on the team.
The Cardinals are a good football team that plays in the toughest division in football and also plays in the tougher conference when it comes to wild card spots in the playoffs. They went 10-6 last year and missed the playoffs because of the strength of the conference. Seattle and San Francisco haven’t gotten worse so the Cards have to beat up St. Louis and do some damage outside their division.
8. New Orleans Saints (2013 Record 11-5)
The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees and anytime you have a QB that has thrown for over 5000 yards three years in a row you’re off to a pretty solid start. TE Jimmy Graham is one of the best playmakers in football and is a touchdown machine. WR Marques Colston is Brees’ most trusted target and young WR Kenny Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks are budding playmakers. The offensive line is pretty non-descript but Brees’ quick release has always made his line look better than they are. The real question mark is at RB where Pierre Thomas is versatile but aging, Mark Ingram is maddeningly inconsistent and Darren Sproles was jettisoned in the offseason. Cooks is expected to pick up some of the Sproles slack but the Saints really need Ingram to live up to his first round billing.
Rob Ryan proved last year that Rex isn’t the only Ryan brother that knows defense and that the Cowboys should deeply regret letting him go. A Saints unit that was pretty awful before he got there was pretty good with him running things. Ryan finally got the best out of DE Cameron Jordan and made him a very good defensive lineman. He also turned Junior Galette from a nobody into a sack master. Free agent pickup Jairus Byrd should team with Kenny Vaccaro to make an excellent safety tandem. Ryan’s schemes make the defense go and he’ll keep it up this year with a few new faces around.
The Saints finished just a game back of Carolina in the division last year and made the playoffs as a wild card team. The Panthers look like they should take a step back and I think New Orleans will have to hold off the Bucs for the division this year.
7. Indianapolis Colts (2013 Record 11-5)
If you pay close attention to my Top 10 you will notice there is a theme and that theme is good teams have good QBs and Colts are no exception. Andrew Luck willed this team to 11 wins last year with virtually no running game and two of his top targets out with injury (Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen). The offensive line isn’t great by any means and yet Luck somehow threw for a ton of yards and has won 11 games in each of his first two years. The Colts are hoping beyond hope that Trent Richardson will somehow live up to his lofty draft position especially after losing Vick Ballard to another season ending injury but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Reggie Wayne is back but he’s 35 and coming off a knee injury. TY Hilton stepped up big after Wayne went out and the Colts are hoping to resurrect the career of Hakeem Nicks. TE Coby Fleener played well after Allen went down and now with Allen back the Colts are hoping to use some two TE sets.
Robert Mathis was amazing after his transition from DE to OLB in the Colts new defense and he was right in the thick of the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Unfortunately he’s going to miss the first 4 games of the year due to suspension so they will have to figure out how to get along without him. The defense wasn’t very good overall and so they made a few key moves to try to better themselves. ILB D’Qwell Jackson was signed from the Browns and DE Arthur Jones came over from Baltimore. They held onto free agent CB Vontae Davis and he and Greg Toler make a solid duo. They need this unit to be better but Luck makes it so they don’t have to be great to win games.
The Colts should again walk away with their division if only because they are the only team with a surefire solution at QB. Tennessee is still trying to figure out if Jake Locker is the answer, the Jaguars don’t plan on finding out if Blake Bortles is the answer until next year and everyone except the Texans coaching staff knows that Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer in Houston.
The we are almost there pair.
6. Green Bay Packers (2013 Record 8-7-1)
The Packers didn’t make any major moves on offense in the offseason as they are just hoping for a healthy return of…well lots of people. No one was hit harder by injury all over their roster like the Packers but it did give them a chance to find out that some new people can step in. The loss of OT Bryan Bulaga along with some other OT injuries led to the Pack finding out that David Bakhtiari could actually handle LT which mean a healthy Bulaga can play the right side. An injury to Aaron Rodgers is never a good thing but they found out that they can count on Eddie Lacy and he can carry the offense if needed. Injuries all over the WR position led to them finding out the Jarrett Boykin might actually be able to hold his own which meant they let James Jones leave in free agency. An offense run by a healthy Rodgers with Eddie Lacy and WRs like Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson is in good hand and is definitely better than eight wins.
They made one big name move on defense and that was the signing of DE Julius Peppers from the Bears. Peppers is not the same guy he was in his prime and he won’t be playing the same type of position he did back then but Peppers brings legitimate pass rushing skills. Just having to account for a guy like Peppers is more help than OLB Clay Matthews has had in the past few years. The Packers still have hope that OLB Nick Perry can generate some heat off the edge but no one is holding their breath on that one. Injury already struck this defense when NT BJ Raji went down with an arm injury for the year but otherwise this defense is pretty well intact. They drafted S Haha Clinton-Dix to be the new free safety but they also converted CB Micah Hyde to the position and so far he is holding Clinton-Dix off in camp. SS Morgan Burnett has been dinged up so Hyde and Clinton-Dix have been playing together and that’s the good news because that means when Burnett is healthy the Packers should have 3 legitimate safeties.
The Packers have the best combination of talent and coaching within their division and if they can stay healthy they shouldn’t have a problem repeating as division champs. They will need some people to step up big though if they want to compete with Seattle and San Francisco as the class of the conference. They do have one thing those two don’t have, Aaron Rodgers.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (2013 Record 11-5)
The Bengals have actually been good for the last several years and they have been that way because they have been steady and consistent with their player development and their coaching staff…ten years ago no one would have ever written that about this franchise. They have been so good that they just lost both of their coordinators, not because they were fired but because they both got head coaching jobs. QB Andy Dalton has been much maligned by fans and the media but the Bengals believe in him and they just signed him to a huge contract extension to prove it. He’s been excellent in the regular season it has been his playoff performances that haven’t been great. Elevating RB Giovani Bernard to starter over BenJarvus Green-Ellis should pay dividends because Bernard is a playmaker. Rookie Jeremy Hill has replaced Green-Ellis as the short yardage back and Green-Ellis has been cut. AJ Green is one of the best WRs in the league and he likes playing with Dalton. Marvin Jones finally stepped up opposite Green to give Dalton another legitimate target. TEs Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert make a nice combo and it’s up to new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to use them more effectively. The Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in football and the way you can tell is that no one ever talks about them.
The Bengals defense has been very good for a while and when Marvin Lewis is your head coach and Mike Zimmer is your coordinator that isn’t surprising. Zimmer finally got his shot at being a head coach in Minnesota and Paul Guenther steps in as his replacement. The team shouldn’t miss a beat especially with the return of DT Geno Atkins from his injury. Atkins is a dominant playmaker in the middle of the line and he sets up everything they do. They lost DE Michael Johnson in free agency but his production was down last year so his shoes don’t look as big to fill. LB Vontaze Burfict has proven all the doubters (and I was certainly one of them) wrong by being one of the best LBs in the league after not getting drafted a couple of years ago due to character concerns. It’s nice to see someone not live down to the expectations of others and Burfict has put in the work and he’s a fantastic LB. A training camp injury has set back rookie CB Darqueze Dennard so the Bengals will once again have to count on old man Terrence Newman and draft bust Dre Kirkpatrick opposite Leon Hall but the secondary will be fine and having Atkins up front causing havoc helps a lot.
The Bengals have the second longest tenured head coach in the league in Marvin Lewis behind only the New England Patriots Bill Belichick…I know I can’t believe that either. Losing coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer isn’t great news but there is some hope that new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will help shake Dalton out of his poor playoff performance issues.
The Elite Division
4. New England Patriots (2013 Record 12-4)
Last season the Patriots offense was basically RB LeGarrette Blount and Tom Brady throwing it to Julian Edelman about 1000 times. Blount left for Pittsburgh in the offseason so they are hoping for more from the rest of the skill position players. TE Rob Gronkowski would be the first choice to be healthy and productive if Brady had a wish. Gronkowski is a dynamic playmaker down the field and especially in the end zone and he’s a matchup nightmare. RB Shane Vereen had a great first game last year after he replaced the fumble prone Stevan Ridley and the Patriots are hoping one of those two can be the man in the backfield. If neither does they still have Brandon Bolden around and now they have rookie James White too. The offensive line looks to be healthy and as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick they will be one of the better teams in the league.
Other teams had more injuries on defense but the Patriots had some of the most important players on their defense get injured. DTs Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly and MLB Jerod Mayo all missed significant time and that seriously weakened the team up the middle. Wilfork and Mayo are the heart and soul of the defense and their return is huge. The free agent signing of CB Darrelle Revis is important because of the loss of Aqib Talib and having Revis another year removed from his knee injury and with a chip on his shoulder bodes well for the Pats. CB Brandon Browner is another significant signing but he will miss the first four games of the season due to a suspension. DE Chandler Jones and LB Jaime Collins are young guys that stepped up big last year and they are the future building blocks of the defense.
Somehow with all the injuries on defense and the lack of playmakers on offense the Patriots still went 12-4, won their division by a landslide and made it to the AFC Championship game. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are the reasons and anyone that doubts those two guys does so at their peril. As long as they are around the Patriots remain one of the elite teams in the league and are a threat no matter what.
3. San Francisco 49ers (2013 Record 12-4)
The 49ers rely heavily on the ground game and the legs of RB Frank Gore and while all evidence says that Gore shouldn’t be able to keep doing what he has done for so long he just keeps going. The team isn’t crazy enough to think he will last forever so they wisely invested a draft pick in RB Carlos Hyde who very well could take over at a moment’s notice. This become an even smarter move when backup Kendall Hunter was lost for the season to an injury and since Marcus Lattimore still isn’t ready to play after sitting out all of last season. QB Colin Kaepernick needs to take the next step for this offense to make strides and this just may be the year. WR Michael Crabtree missed most of last season but he’s back and pairing him with Anquan Boldin gives Kaepernick a nice set of WRs. The trade for Stevie Johnson from the Bills and the drafting of Bruce Ellington also adds nice depth a position that didn’t have much. TE Vernon Davis is the veteran presence and reliable target every QB needs and the 49ers have arguably the best offensive line in football.
The backbone of this team has been its defense and they are hoping their depth can make up for some injuries they have to overcome. Glenn Dorsey finally played well after coming over from Kansas City and settling in at nose tackle but he’s been lost for the season to an injury. ILB Navarro Bowman was actually playing better than his more heralded teammate Patrick Willis before he tore up his knee late last year. The 49ers are hoping young Quinton Dial can take over the NT job while rookie Chris Borland holds down the fort until Bowman is back. OLB Aldon Smith’s season was a train wreck due to off-the-field issues and the team is hoping he can put that all behind him because they need his pass rushing skills. SS Antoine Bethea should help out the coverage in the secondary as he teams with second year FS Eric Reid and the new starting CB tandem of Trumaine Brock and Chris Culliver. DE Justin Smith is still the leader of the group but he isn’t getting any younger and the 49ers need some of the youngsters to step up.
The 49ers have the unenviable task of playing in the same division as the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and that make them the best wild card team in football. The rivalry between the two squads goes all the way up to the head coaches Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll and it’s a rivalry that drives both teams to strive for perfection. San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC but they are going to have to take that title away from Seattle because the Seahawks aren’t just going to give it away.
2. Seattle Seahawks (2013 Record 13-3)
The NFL has become a pass happy league but the Seahawks proved that a great defense and a running game can still win championships. RB Marshawn Lynch carries the load for the offense and QB Russell Wilson makes plays to keep things moving but the league will adjust which means the Seahawks must adjust too. They didn’t make any major additions on offense with the exception of the return of a healthy Percy Harvin, they hope. Harvin is a playmaker and he gives their offense a dimension it otherwise doesn’t have but he just can’t stay on the field and it’s hard to trust a guy like that. Guys like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are nice and they are hoping to get some playmaking out of rookies Kevin Norwood and Paul Richardson but none of them are on Harvin’s level. The Seahawks have built a solid stable of RBs behind Lynch with Christine Michael and Robert Turbin. They drafted Justin Britt out of Missouri and are hoping he can take over the RT job but that may prove to be a risky choice. They signed Eric Winston as insurance but then they cut him during final cut downs, he could be an insurance policy signing after week 1 when veteran contracts are no longer guaranteed.
The Seahawks defense was on a different level last year and it would be hard to replicate that under the best circumstances and these aren’t the best circumstances. There is plenty of talent still around like CB Richard Sherman, DEs Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril and Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. The problem the Seahawks face is with the depth they lost in free agency, DEs Chris Clemons and Red Bryant left for Jacksonville, CB Brandon Browner went to New England and nickel corner Walter Thurmond headed to the Giants and those losses will be felt. As dominate as the Seahawks were, especially in the Super Bowl, it is almost impossible
to replicate that type of play again.
The Seahawks are likely to take a step back from where they were last year so it’s lucky for them they were a step ahead of everyone else. They play in the toughest division in football and their arch rival is also their biggest threat in the San Francisco 49ers. As any champion will tell you it is harder to hold on to the title than it is to win it the first time.
1. Denver Broncos (2013 Record 13-3)
Yes I watched the Super Bowl and yes I know the Seahawks destroyed the Broncos but that was last year’s team and this is this year’s team. The Broncos were missing some key personnel that not a lot of people talked about. They were obviously missing Von Miller but there was one other huge missing piece that didn’t get talked about that would have made a difference, LT Ryan Clady. Clady is a top notch LT and he missed last year with an injury, Chris Clark filled in admirably but he isn’t on Clady’s level especially at LT. This year with Clady back Clark has flipped over to the right side where he is a better fit and that pushed Orlando Franklin inside to LG. Clady’s return has improved 3 spots on the offensive line and that will make the Broncos offense better against strong defensive fronts like the Seahawks. WR Emmanuel Sanders was signed after Eric Decker left meaning Manning’s offensive weapons will be just as potent and with Montee Ball taking the reins at RB they should be fine there.
The Broncos defense got some nice upgrades in free agency and just in returning healthy players. Von Miller is a star when he can stay off suspension and keep himself healthy and he will have some help this year. DeMarcus Ware was jettisoned by the Cowboys because the Cowboys don’t want good defensive players (okay it may have had more to do with money) and while Ware is no spring chicken he can still get it done. Ware and Miller are going to be a scary pass rushing duo. CB Aqib Talib had a fantastic year for the Patriots and he’ll be a huge upgrade over what was left of Champ Bailey last season. Bailey is a future Hall of Famer but he was a shell of his former self last year. The healthy returns of CB Chris Harris and FS Rahim Moore are being overlooked because both of them upgrade the secondary. SS TJ Ward was the other major free agent signing and he will bring a physical presence to the back end that the Broncos haven’t had in a while.
A team with a healthy Peyton Manning is always a contender for the Super Bowl and while I didn’t talk much about the reigning MVP it is because we all know how great he is. Manning will get another shot at a Super Bowl trophy before he walks away one day and it very well could come this year. This team is built to contend and bringing in great players like Ware, Ward and Talib help and getting back Manning’s personal security guard Ryan Clady will be bigger than anyone realizes.
The NFL season kicks off tomorrow night and tomorrow you’ll get my Thoughts and Predictions for the upcoming season.
The Hott Read 