We Might be better, we hope we aren’t worse.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (2013 Record 8-8)
The Steelers have been treading water for the past couple of seasons and it seems to be where they are again except their players are now a year older, that’s okay for guys like Antonio Brown or Jarvis Jones but not so great for Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu. Back-to-back 8-8 seasons are going to make the natives restless and while the Steelers organization isn’t prone to kneejerk reactions if Mike Tomlin’s squad can’t make some progress this year they could look to make a change on the sidelines. Roethlisberger is a good QB but he’s 32 years old and his offensive line isn’t stellar. The recent marijuana bust of RBs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount doesn’t inspire confidence and while Antonio Brown has been really good at WR the last couple of years losing Emmanuel Sanders in free agency is going to put some pressure on Markus Wheaton to step up this season.
The defense is finally starting to get some youth with the rise of OLB Jarvis Jones and DE Cameron Heyward and the drafting of ILB Ryan Shazier. LBs Jason Worilds and Lawrence Timmons are in the prime of their careers but SS Troy Polamalu, CB Ike Taylor and CB William Gay are past theirs. Free agent signings of DL Cam Thomas and Mike Mitchell replaced older players with younger ones but they aren’t exactly an upgrade. When you combine youth and age and a few average players you get exactly what the Steelers have been and that is a team that can only hope to be in the middle of the pack.
The Steelers seem to be stuck in limbo right now as they aren’t quite bad enough to start a complete rebuild especially when you have a QB that has won as much as Roethlisberger has but they are just not quite good enough to make the playoffs. If their offensive line fails again and their age on defense shows through this team could bottom out pretty badly. Big Ben can will them to a few victories they probably shouldn’t get but if they lose Bell and Blount to suspensions it could seriously damage them for a stretch and make this one ugly season.
18. Miami Dolphins (2013 Record 8-8)
From 2011 to 2013 the Dolphins went 6-10, 7-9, and 8-8 which might look like progress but it really wasn’t. Last year was completely overshadowed by the bullying scandal that took place with the offensive line and the only silver lining out of it was that the Dolphins were forced to replace what was a terrible offensive line. Free agent LT Brandon Albert finally made the move down from Kansas City while the Dolphins reached in the draft for new RT Ja’Wuan James. The guard situation is up in the air which means C Mike Pouncey is the only guy coming back and starting where he was last season and even he is expected to be out at the beginning of the year. Usually that much change is a concern but in this case it is a blessing for QB Ryan Tannehill. RB Lamar Miller has looked solid in camp which is good because free agent signee Knowshon Moreno has reverted to his injury form. TE Charles Clay played well last year while WR Brian Hartline was his steady self but Tannehill needs Mike Wallace to become the consistent deep threat the Dolphins are paying him to be if the offense is going to be a threat.
The Dolphins defense seems to be less than the sum of its parts. The front four should be good after the breakout year of DE Olivier Vernon and the fact that Cameron Wake is still a threat. DTs Randy Starks, Jared Odrick and free agent Earl Mitchell should make the middle very strong. CB Brent Grimes was great last year and the Dolphins are hoping Cortland Finnegan can rediscover the player he was in Tennessee. Free agent Louis Delmas would be a nice upgrade at safety if he can stay healthy which is something he has struggled to do throughout his career. The biggest issue for the defense is with the linebacking corps which has three underachieving players. The coaches are trying flip-flopping them all around to find where they fit best but unless Koa Misi, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler all play considerably better the defense is going to suffer.
Head coach Joe Philbin needs this team to show major progress or the team may decide to go in a different direction. They should be better than the Jets and at least as good as the Bills in the division but they still don’t look like a threat to the Patriots and they will struggle to make the playoffs again. They are a team that could surprise but it just doesn’t seem like they are there yet.
17. Buffalo Bills (2013 Record 6-10)
This Bills team is going to try to change their story from “what is happening with the new ownership?” and “are they going to be moving?” to “can they fight for a playoff spot?” The addition of WR Sammy Watkins in the draft was a bold move and it was made with the intent of giving EJ Manuel a fair chance at proving he is the franchise QB they have been missing since Jim Kelly retired. RBs CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown give the offense a legitimate ground game while Watkins teams up with Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and TE Scott Chandler to give Manuel some options in the passing game. Draftees Cyrus Kouandjio, Cyril Richardson and Seantrel Henderson give the Bills some new options that should improve the offensive line.
The Bills defense has to replace coordinator Mike Pettine the new Cleveland Browns head coach and he did a magnificent job last season with this unit. They were able to actually turn DE Jerry Hughes into a good player something he had failed to do in the previous years in Indianapolis. Hughes made for a nice bookend pass rusher for Mario Williams and DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams were pretty good too. The biggest loss will be injured LB Kiko Alonso who was great last year but is out for the season. The Bills needed help stopping the run and they signed Patriots castoff Brandon Spikes, who excels at stopping the run and they were hoping he could man the middle so they could move Alonso outside. Now they will have Spikes flanked by Nigel Bradham and Keith Rivers so they certainly won’t be as good. CBs Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin and safeties Da’Norris Searcy and Aaron Williams should prove to be a solid secondary.
While the Bills defense will miss Alonso they should still be pretty good so it is up to the offense to make strides. A healthy EJ Manuel would go a long way towards making the offense more effective and that may come down to the play on the o-line keeping him upright. The Bills won’t catch the Patriots but they should finish second in the division and could nab the last playoff spot in the AFC.
16. San Diego Chargers (2013 Record 9-7)
The Chargers snagged the last playoff spot in the AFC last season and that was a bit of a surprise. QB Phillip Rivers had a good year and luckily for him the team made an excellent draft pick in 2013 with WR Keenan Allen. Allen had dropped in the draft due to an underwhelming college season and an injury that prevented him from getting in workouts. Injuries were a problem at WR for the Chargers and Allen stepped up and now he’s the go-to guy for Rivers. RB Ryan Mathews finally played well after disappointing time and time again. The offensive line is still underwhelming but they weren’t terrible which was a step up. TE Antonio Gates was still productive but it’s youngster Ladarius Green that has people excited and he should be a weapon this year for Rivers.
The Chargers defense isn’t going to be confused for the Seahawks defense but they have some good players. DEs Corey Luiget and Kendall Reyes, LBs Donald Butler and Jarrett Johnson and S Eric Weddle are all pretty good but they need some people to step up and be dynamic. Returning from injury is OLB Melvin Ingram and they could really use his pass rushing skills because Dwight Freeney isn’t getting any younger, another young guy that could add a lot to this defense in rookie CB Jason Verrett. Verrett is undersized but he has great cover skills and that is in short supply in the Chargers secondary.
Denver and Kansas City were the class of the AFC West last season and that probably isn’t going to change this year. The Chargers were the best of a mediocre middle class in the AFC last year and they made the playoffs it may not be easy but they could do it again. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and Buffalo all look like solid competition for the last playoff spot in the conference so we will see if the Chargers can pull it off again.
We are on our way, we hope.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013 Record 4-12)
My choice for the biggest turnaround this season is definitely the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The nightmare of the back-to-back tenures of head coaches Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano is finally over and has been replaced by the steady hand of Lovie Smith. Smith was a beloved assistant under Tony Dungy and brings an NFL credibility that was lacking with the last two men. The Bucs were easily the busiest team in free agency bringing in LT Anthony Collins, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, TE Brandon Myers, and QB Josh McCown on offense. Collins, Dietrich-Smith and Myers certainly upgrade their positions while McCown brings a steady veteran in at QB. Rookie WR Mike Evans should pair with Vincent Jackson to give McCown some nice weapons in the passing game. Much of the success of the Bucs depends on if McCown can bring the magic with him that he showed in his short stint as the Bears starter last season as opposed to being the career backup he has been in the past. The healthy return of RB Doug Martin would go a long way towards helping McCown also.
The offense wasn’t the only place the Bucs added quality starters in free agency. DE Michael Johnson came down from Cincinnati to replace the underwhelming Da’Quan Bowers and CB Alterraun Verner came in to replace the departed Darrell Revis. DT Gerald McCoy proved to be one the best DTs in the league and the LB corps is solid with Lavonte David and Mason Foster leading the way. If Lovie Smith can get the best out of DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Akeem Spence and second year CB Jonathan Banks the Buccaneers could have an excellent defense.
Arguably the biggest additions to this team are on the coaching staff. Not only does Lovie Smith bring much more credibility than his predecessors but his staff has some great coaches. Offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford was a long-time head coach at Cal and tutored some great QB’s, Aaron Rodgers being his shining star example. Smith’s biggest issue when he was head coach of the Bears was always the offense but as long as he lets Tedford have the keys he shouldn’t have that problem anymore. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was the head man in Minnesota and has a great reputation on the defensive side and his philosophy meshes well with Smith’s. TE coach Jon Embree, LB coach Hardy Nickerson and OL coach George Warhop are other examples of great quality coaches this team will benefit from. The NFC South has a history of teams going from worst to first and it’s a distinct possibility that either the Bucs or the Falcons (both of whom finished 4-12 last year) could do that this season.
14. Detroit Lions (2013 Record 7-9)
While I’m a fan of Jim Caldwell the person and Jim Caldwell the offensive coordinator/QB coach he was an underwhelming choice as the new head coach. I will give the Lions credit that they finally figured out that they need someone to harness QB Matthew Stafford’s considerable gifts if they are ever going to break out of their middling state. The skill position talent around Stafford is very good with RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, TEs Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria and of course the dominate WR Calvin Johnson now has a solid running mate in Golden Tate. Stafford has to eliminate the mistakes he makes that kill the offensive momentum that is what the new offensive minded staff is going to concentrate on.
The defense has plenty to work on but there is potential there. DT Ndamukong Suh has a bad reputation as a dirty player but he’s pretty good. DE Ezekiel Ansah brings pass rushing potential and the rest of the defensive line holds their own. Rookie LB Kyle Van Noy was a fantastic selection and he will be big in terms of turning around a very average LB group. The secondary has been a weakness for quite some time and even though CB Rashean Mathis held his own last year he is 33 years old and has a suspect injury history. CB Darius Slay is okay but he shouldn’t be anyone’s top CB. The defense needs to be more than the sum of its individual parts.
If the Lions defense can be a middle-of-the-pack group and Caldwell can up Stafford’s game the Lions could make some noise. Everyone assumes that an injury free Green Bay team and the Bears will duke it out for the top of the division but the Lions have as much talent as anyone and they will make their presence felt.
13. Baltimore Ravens (2013 Record 8-8)
GM Ozzie Newsome knows this team is built to compete right now as they have many players in the primes of their careers not the least of which is franchise QB Joe Flacco. Newsome doesn’t venture into the veteran free agent market that much as he has built most of this team through the draft but he went out and signed savvy veteran WR Steve Smith. He’s hoping having Steve Smith paired with WR Torey Smith and the addition of a healthy Dennis Pitta at TE will be enough to get the offense humming again. RB Ray Rice fell off a cliff last year in terms of production and his two game suspension for domestic abuse (don’t get me started on that one) isn’t going to get him off to a great start. The Ravens hope the return of Bernard Pierce and the addition of rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro will reshape their running game. The offensive line is solid after the in-season addition and subsequent re-signing of LT Eugene Monroe and the offseason trade for C Jeremy Zuttah but RT is still a question after letting the inconsistent Michael Oher leave in free agency without doing anything of consequence to help the position.
The hallmark of both Ravens Super Bowl winning squads was their defense and both times it was led by Ray Lewis. Well Lewis is on TV now and LB Daryl Smith took over very capably last season and had one of the better years of his career. They return a lot of talent in guys like DL Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Ladarius Webb and S Matt Elam but it is the additions that could make a difference. Rookie LB CJ Mosley is built for this defense and FS Terrence Brooks, while not a high draft pick, is good enough to come in and allow the Ravens to shift Elam to his more natural SS spot. The pass rush should come from Suggs along with Elvis Dumervil and hopefully Courtney Upshaw.
A year after a Super Bowl title the Ravens went .500 and missed the playoffs in a weak AFC. The good news is that the Ravens should be better than the Steelers and the Browns still aren’t a threat, the bad news is the Bengals have passed the Ravens as the class of the division and that probably won’t change this year. Newsome drafts better than anyone in the league year after year and this team has better talent than an 8-8 squad. John Harbaugh won a Super Bowl two years ago but he better get it together or he will learn that NFL stands for Not For Long.
12. Chicago Bears (2013 Record 8-8)
The Bears offense played pretty well last year with Jay Cutler at QB and some would say even better with Josh McCown under center. Head coach Marc Trestman found that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery made for a large and spectacular pair at WR and he took advantage. Martellus Bennett was solid at TE and Matt Forte is excellent at RB. The one thing they finally addressed was their shotty offensive line. LT Jermon Bushrod will never be mistaken for Orlando Pace but he held his own and rookies Jordan Mills and Kyle Long held down the right side of the line very well.
The Bears biggest problem on defense is that they have gotten old and their drafting on that side of the ball hasn’t done a great job of replacing the aging players. They have brought in guys like Jay Ratliff and Jared Allen but that’s not helping the situation. LB Lance Briggs and CB Charles Tillman are a year older and they are still going to be counted on and that could be a problem. They hope that free agent additions Lamaar Houston and Willie Young and draft picks Will Sutton and Ego Ferguson can replenish their defensive line talent. Shea McClellin hasn’t done much since he was drafted and now they are trying to make him a full-time OLB instead of a pass rushing DE. The safety situation was a disaster last season and the Bears are hoping rookie Brock Vereen and free agent Ryan Mundy can rectify the situation, they can’t be any worse.
The Bears finished just behind the Packers last season in the NFC North a division that was pretty bad considering the Packers won it with an 8-7-1 record. The Packers should be much better given their return to health and the Bears are going to have to hold off the Lions for second place. If age catches up to their defense or if Jay Cutler stumbles it could go horribly wrong for Chicago but I think Cutler will be fine and the defense should hold on for another year.
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