AFC West Draft Analysis

Here’s the start to my division by division breakdown of the 2014 NFL Draft.  I don’t assign grades because its simply not worthwhile to try to grade a draft before players have even moved to the city they will call home.  I don’t have specific criteria for each category so yes I do call a 1st rounder as a “Sleeper” and fourth rounder an “Immediate Impact” guy and I actually do it for the same team.  I’ll try to get these out as quickly as I can but I like to spread them out a little because no one wants to read all I have to say about the draft all at once.

Denver Broncos

31. Bradley Roby  CB  Ohio St.

56. Cody Latimer  WR  Indiana

95. Michael Schofield  OT  Michigan

156. Lamin Barrow  LB  LSU

207. Matt Paradis  C  Boise St.

242. Corey Nelson  OLB  Oklahoma

Immediate Impact:  CB Bradley Roby

Roby will be the starter opposite Aqib Talib and the Broncos need him to live up to his immense potential.  He is a better athlete than he is a corner right now but the Broncos don’t have a lot at the position.

Best Value:  WR Cody Latimer

Latimer was a late rising prospect so getting him with the 24th pick in the second round was pretty good.  Some people had him slipping into the late 1st round and considering guys like Davante Adams and Paul Richardson were taken above him the Broncos got good value.

Sleeper:  LB Lamin Barrow

Barrow is undersized and while most project him to weakside linebacker he could line up in the middle where the Broncos need help. MLB Nate Irving was just okay and while Danny Trevathan played pretty well he’s not great on the weakside so Barrow could make some noise.

Overall Analysis:

A small draft class but given the fact that the Broncos made the Super Bowl and they made some big free agent signings this offseason it’s unlikely too many rookies will make this club.  Roby, Latimore and Barrow certainly will and OT Michael Schofield is an interesting pickup.  With the return of LT Ryan Clady the Broncos plan to move Chris Clark to RT and Orlando Franklin inside to guard.  Clark played well at LT replacing Clady until the Super Bowl and Peyton Manning will welcome Clady back with open arms.  Schofield might give Clark some competition at RT and even if he doesn’t he upgrades their tackle depth.  C Matt Paradis might make the team as a developmental prospect and perhaps OLB Corey Nelson makes it because of special teams but both of them are facing an uphill battle.

Kansas City Chiefs

23. Dee Ford  OLB  Auburn

87. Phillip Gaines  CB  Rice

124. De’Anthony Thomas  RB  Oregon

163. Aaron Murray  QB  Georgia

193. Zach Fulton  OG  Tennessee

200. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif  OT  McGill

Immediate Impact:  RB De’Anthony Thomas

Thomas is small and he really wasn’t a very highly regarded prospect because he isn’t an every down back and he has a very slight frame.  I hadn’t really considered him as a guy that would make a huge impact until he was drafted by the Chiefs.  The Chiefs lost Dexter McCluster in free agency and Andy Reid was the first coach to really understand how to use McCluster and now he has a younger replacement.  This is a great fit for Thomas because he can actually have a career playing for Reid.

Best Value:  QB Aaron Murray

My adoration for Murray is well chronicled in my previous draft postings and getting him in the fifth round #163 overall is highway robbery.  Alex Smith only has a year left on his contract and the Chiefs don’t want to give him a long extension and now they have some leverage.  Smith will be the starter this year and Chase Daniel is locked in as the expensive backup and that’s fine because Murray needs time to rehab his torn ACL and the Chiefs can put him on injured reserve and hold onto current 3rd stringer Tyler Bray if they like.  Murray is a long term investment and he’s a good one.

Sleeper:  OLB Dee Ford

Normally I don’t call first round picks sleepers but this pick is being panned by many draft analysts and I guess I’m one of the few that likes it.  Yes the Chiefs have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, two exceptional pass rushers, but Hali is 30 years old and his weight is up.  Hali has always been a very big OLB because he was originally a DE but if he isn’t in shape he becomes ineffective and Ford is the insurance against that.  Chiefs fans know what happened when Hali and Houston both were injured in the same game last season, the pass rush disappeared.  Ford is a natural pass rusher and if nothing else he will be in on nickel situations.

Overall Analysis:

I love the Ford pick and I think Andy Reid got away with one there.  Thomas is small and even though he didn’t time fast at the combine he plays fast and that’s obvious on tape.  Murray is a brilliant future investment and currently is leverage for the franchise.  Phillip Gaines is a good CB prospect and given the Chiefs unhappiness with Brandon Flowers and their lack of depth at the position he could play early.  The last two picks are developmental offensive linemen and given the free agent losses of Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz depth is needed.  OT Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is an intriguing athlete that could eventually make it as an OT.  The one major miss here is the lack of WR’s drafted at all.  The Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery and no one else of consequence at the position.  Murray is going to eventually need someone to throw too.

Oakland Raiders

5. Khalil Mack  OLB  Buffalo

36. Derek Carr  QB  Fresno St.

81. Gabe Jackson  OG  Mississippi St.

107. Justin Ellis  DT  Louisiana Tech

116. Keith McGill  CB  Utah

219. TJ Carrie  CB  Ohio

235. Shelby Harris  DE  Illinois St.

247. Jonathan Dowling  CB  Western Kentucky

Immediate Impact:  OLB Khalil Mack, OG Gabe Jackson

Mack instantly becomes the best player on the defense and they can use his considerable skills to line him up all over the field.  He will be the primary blitzer and nickel pass rusher from the start.  The Raiders can slide Justin Tuck inside on passing downs and line Mack up outside much like the Giants used to do with Tuck.  Jackson is a road grading OG and the LG job is his to lose.  He will make life much easier on Darren McFadden and newly signed Maurice Jones-Drew.

Best Value:  QB Derek Carr

The Raiders stayed put in the first round and wound up with Khalil Mack and then they stood pat in the second and got the QB they wanted all along.  Carr was the 4th best QB on most boards but the Raiders have loved him from the start.  He won’t be thrown into the fire because of Matt Schaub but if Schaub plays like he did last year for the Texans the Raiders will feel comfortable moving onto the future a little sooner.

Sleeper:  CB Keith McGill

This guy is a Seattle style cornerback at 6’3 211 lbs. and while he’s had a few off-the-field issues that has never bothered the Raiders.  DJ Hayden is one starting corner but the other side is to be manned by Carlos Rogers who is getting a little long in the tooth.  McGill has loads of potential and he’ll have every opportunity to compete for a spot in the secondary.

Overall Analysis:

I don’t believe I’ve ever said this about a Raiders draft, and I’ve been watching closely for a long time, but I love this draft.  Khalil Mack might actually be the guy that turns around the Raiders defense (yes he’s that good) and Derek Carr has a chance to be the first good Raiders QB since Rich Gannon’s career renaissance.  Gabe Jackson is a starter on the offensive line right now and Justin Ellis brings some much needed size to the interior of the defensive line.  McGill was a talent worth gambling on in the fourth round.  TJ Carrie and Jonathan Dowling bring some youthful competition to the corner spot and I really don’t know anything about Shelby Harris out of Illinois St. but I’m willing to give Reggie McKenzie the benefit of the doubt after watching this draft.  The Raiders had so many needs it’s hard to say they missed addressing one and getting Mack and Carr could be the turning point for this franchise.  For the long suffering Raider fans out there, there is hope.

San Diego Chargers:

25. Jason Verrett  CB  TCU

50. Jeremiah Attaochu  OLB  Georgia Tech

89. Chris Watt  OG  Notre Dame

165. Ryan Carrethers  DT  Arkansas St.

201. Marion Grice  RB  Arizona St.

240. Tevin Reese  WR  Baylor

Immediate Impact:  CB Jason Verrett, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu

Verrett became the best CB on the roster the minute he was drafted and he’ll make a big difference because their pass defense was horrible.  He isn’t the biggest guy in the world but he has great cover skills.  It would be nice if someone steps up to help him especially against bigger WR’s but he’ll hold his own for now.  Attaochu will be a terror off the edge and he can team with the returning Melvin Ingram to bring the pass rush.  The Chargers are hoping to squeeze another year out of Dwight Freeney and having Attaochu means Freeney can play less snaps and hopefully be more effective.

Best Value:  OLB Jeremiah Attaochu

He was one of the last really good pass rushers and the Chargers stole him at #50 overall.  He’s a perfect scheme fit and his presence probably means goodbye for Larry English.

Sleeper:  NT Ryan Carrethers

Short, squatty and powerful is the perfect description of a nose tackle and it’s the exact description of Carrethers.  The Chargers lost Cam Thomas in free agency and they need a new guy in the middle of their three man front.  He will slide in between Kendall Reyes and Corey Luiget and keep linemen off of ILB’s Donald Butler and Manti Te’o.

Overall Analysis:

The Chargers had a small draft class but all six players can make the team.  Verrett and Attaochu are important players.  OG Chris Watt will push Jeromy Clary at RG and may unseat him, if not he brings nice depth on the inside of the line.  Carrethers is a perfect fit.  RB Marion Grice doesn’t look like a need because they return Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead and they signed Donald Brown but Matthews has an injury history and Grice can make his money on special teams.  Tevin Reese also might be a sleeper because while he’s small he has speed to burn and we know the Chargers WR corps can’t stay healthy.  Keenan Allen was fantastic last year and Reese’s deep speed would be nice complement to him.

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