This is my quick analysis about what happened last night and as always I will refrain from giving actual grades. A few general things that stuck out to me were some teams drafted good players that don’t really fit their scheme (and I’m not just talking about Clowney) and there were only a few notable reaches but one of them is understandable.
1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
It is no secret that I think Clowney is a poor fit in Houston but the pick has been made and now it is up to Romeo Crennel to find the best way to use Clowney’s considerable gifts and it’s up to Clowney to give maximum effort on every play. Clowney should line-up as an OLB allowing the Texans to move Brooks Reed inside and he and JJ Watt should make life tough for Andrew Luck and every other QB they face.
2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Greg Robinson OT Auburn
This pick made too much sense not to happen. Robinson is still a bit raw but he’s got “future star” written all over him. If Jake Long isn’t back from his knee injury Robinson takes over at LT right now, if Long is back than Robinson can fight Joe Barksdale for the RT spot and if he loses he kicks inside to OG until Long’s days are up or until he beats him out. In any scenario Sam Bradford ends up with better protection and he runs out of excuses.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
There is no doubt that Jacksonville needs a franchise QB (they have since Mark Brunell left) and Bortles has loads of talent. He isn’t ready to start right away and that’s fine because they have Chad Henne to hold down the fort until he is. Bortles biggest issue is the lack of velocity on his passes and it’s not from a lack of arm strength it’s from poor footwork so he can improve that with time and repetition. Jacksonville isn’t winning any time soon so they need to be patient and they may be rewarded with a franchise QB.
4. Buffalo Bills (from Cleveland): Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
The first trade of the day saw Buffalo give up the #9 pick, and next year’s first and fourth round picks to move up and get the game breaker Watkins. The Bills now have Watkins, recently acquired WR Mike Williams and last year’s 2nd rounder Robert Woods for QB EJ Manuel. I think this pick means they will look to trade Stevie Johnson because Watkins is there new WR1.
5. Oakland Raiders: Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
Apparently the Raiders luck is changing because Mack should not have made it this far. He is a major playmaker on defense which is exactly what the Raiders need and while being an OLB in a 4-3 defense isn’t his ideal fit he is a good LB no matter what and he’s too talented to pass up. The Raiders will have to figure out a way to use him as a pass rusher but he just became the best player on their defense.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
The Falcons hearts had to break just a little when Mack went to Oakland one pick ahead of them but Matthews is more than a consolation prize. They had two major needs, a pass rusher and an OT and Matthews is a plug-and-play LT that will make franchise QB Matt Ryan very happy. Atlanta’s offensive line was terrible last year and Jake Matthews is the most ready-made player at the position. He should also help get the running game, i.e. Steven Jackson, back on track.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
The second pick that I got right (both number and team in my mock draft) this one was a great choice for the Bucs. Evans gives them a starting WR opposite Vincent Jackson and should make life pretty easy for QB Josh McCown. Having a great deep threat like Evans should also loosen things up for RB Doug Martin and I think Tampa Bay is in for a quick turnaround under Lovie Smith.
8. Cleveland Browns (from Minnesota): Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma St.
The Browns traded down to #9 and then back up to #8 to grab Justin Gilbert. New GM Ray Farmer knew he needed a CB opposite Joe Haden and he grabbed the top one on the board. Gilbert has good size, is an unbelievable athlete and brings value in the return game also. Buster Skrine was the starter opposite Haden last year and now he can slide into the slot corner position he is better suited for.
9. Minnesota Vikings(from Cleveland): Anthony Barr OLB Minnesota
I love the player but I hate the fit. The Vikings obviously need LB’s but Barr is better suited to a 3-4 defense and while he could help as a situational pass rusher at #9 overall that seems a bit high. Barr’s LB skills are very raw and will need a lot of time to develop and he doesn’t possess the size needed to be a DE in a 4-3 defense and he never will.
10. Detroit Lions: Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
The Lions passed up WR Odell Beckham or help in their secondary to take Ebron who is basically a really big receiver that lines up as a TE. Ebron isn’t going to be a blocker but he is going to be a huge threat in the middle of the field for Matthew Stafford and he will make teams pay for rolling coverage to Calvin Johnson. Ebron, along with the addition of WR Golden Tate in free agency, is going to make the Lions passing game frightening.
11. Tennessee Titans: Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
Lewan looks like a strange fit at first given the overall strength of the Titans line and the recent signing of RT Michael Oher but closer examination shows this makes some sense. The Titans have had good tackles for years in LT Michael Roos and RT Dave Stewart but Stewart’s play dropped off considerably last season hence the signing of Oher as his replacement. New coach Ken Whisenhunt knows with the fragile Jake Locker at QB he would rather get Roos’ replacement a year early and not a year too late. Lewan might take the LT job this year or he’ll be the best swing tackle in the league.
12. New York Giants: Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU
The Giants were awful last year on offense and while I’m sure they would have loved it if Lewan had dropped another spot Beckham is a ready-made replacement for the departed Hakeem Nicks. Nicks was a gigantic disappointment last year and Beckham’s great route running and game-breaking ability will be a nice new weapon for Eli Manning. Beckham can team with former LSU Tiger Rueben Randle on the outside and allow Victor Cruz to remain as one of the best slot receivers in the NFL.
13. St. Louis Rams: Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
The Rams play in a division with both San Francisco and Seattle and yet they may now have the best defensive line in the division and possibly in the NFL. Teaming the undersized Donald with the 6’5 326 lbs. Michael Brockers inside flanked by DE’s Robert Quinn and Chris Long is going to make life miserable for opposing QB’s. Brockers is the perfect partner for Donald because he brings size while Quinn and Donald will both be outstanding pass rushers.
14. Chicago Bears: Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
The Bears defense is aging all over but they definitely needed to get younger and deeper at CB. Fuller is a natural eventual replacement for Charles Tillman and he will have a nice apprenticeship for the next year. Fuller also gives the Bears the third corner for this year that every team needs.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Shazier LB Ohio St.
The Steelers had plenty of needs and getting younger and faster on defense was towards the top of the list. They don’t make LB’s faster than Shazier and he’ll look great lined up inside next to Lawrence Timmons. Shazier’s skillset is vast and he can play in any scheme and I expect him to excel playing in a defense as versatile as Pittsburgh’s. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will figure out a way to use every skill Shazier has.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Zack Martin OL Notre Dame
Someone must have tied up Jerry Jones and stuffed him in a closet so he wouldn’t take Johnny Football and they took the right guy. RT Doug Free is replaceable and Martin has great versatility. Keeping Tony Romo healthy had to be a priority over taking his eventual successor. The defense needs help more but Martin’s value was too high to pass up and he becomes and immediate starter whether that’s at RT or inside at OG.
17. Baltimore Ravens: CJ Mosley ILB Alabama
Ozzie Newsome is an Alabama alumnus and he loves Alabama players but this was no homer pick. Newsome is always the guy that chooses talent over need and Mosley was just too good to pass up. The Ravens re-signed Daryl Smith, they return starter Josh Bynes and they have 2nd year man Arthur Brown so ILB wasn’t an obvious need. However, Bynes is an average starter at best and Brown failed to impress enough to unseat him so Mosley could come in and steal the job. Smith was fantastic last year but he’s no spring chicken so Mosley does make sense.
18. New York Jets: Calvin Pryor S Louisville
The Jets probably needed offensive help (OL, WR, and TE) more than defense but there is a need at safety and Pryor was just too much value at #18 to pass on. Obviously Rex Ryan likes taking defensive players and Pryor is a better free safety than Antonio Allen and he’s probably a better strong safety than Dawan Landry so his versatility will allow Ryan to play his two best safeties either way.
19. Miami Dolphins: Ju’Wuan James OT Tennessee
This is the first real reach of the first round and while I’m usually against that sort of thing this one is completely understandable. James was more of a second round talent but the Dolphins could not go into the season with Jason Fox as their starting RT and with the first four OT’s off the board James is an understandable choice. James started for four years at RT for Tennessee and he will immediately start in Miami. He may never be a Pro Bowl player but he’ll be a pretty good RT for a long time.
20. New Orleans Saints (from Arizona): Brandin Cooks WR Oregon St.
The Saints lost WR Lance Moore and RB Darren Sproles so a speedy offensive weapon was on Sean Payton’s shopping list. The Saints moved up to the spot once Cooks fell because they had to get ahead of Green Bay and Philadelphia two teams that would have strongly considered him. Cooks is lightning in a bottle and teaming him with Drew Brees means I now have a favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
21. Green Bay Packers: Haha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
The Packers stand pat at #21 and end up with the best safety in the draft. The Packers safeties had ZERO interceptions last season (no that’s not a typo) and Clinton-Dix can be that playmaker in the deep middle they are missing. He’s solid in run support but patrolling the back end will be his main job and he will excel at it.
22. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia): Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
I’m obviously not the biggest Manziel fan but he’s a talent and getting him at #22 is far more palpable than in the top 10. Ray Farmer played this great and Manziel has a chance to actually succeed because he will have to compete for the job, it won’t be handed to him, and if he wins it he will have some really good talent around him. He’s a better QB than Brandon Weeden was so he will benefit from having WR Josh Gordon (his new version of college teammate Mike Evans), TE Jordan Cameron, recently signed slot receiver Andrew Hawkins and new RB Ben Tate.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dee Ford OLB Auburn
This was a bit of a surprise due to the presence of OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston but the Chiefs seriously lack any sort of back-up to these guys. Hali is 30 years old so Ford could be his eventual replacement but more stunning than taking Ford is passing on a WR like Marqise Lee. The Chiefs had a major turnaround last season but they still need offensive playmakers. The depth at WR and the lack of depth in pass rushers must have had a bearing on the Chiefs thinking.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan St.
The Bengals needed a LB and to get younger at CB and Dennard was far more valuable than any LB still on the board. He is a steal at #24 and with Leon Hall’s injury issues, Terence Newman being 35 and Dre Kirkpatrick’s seriously underwhelming performance, Dennard is just what they need. He is a physical CB that won’t back down from anyone and in a division that has Josh Gordon, Torrey Smith and Antonio Brown good CB play is essential.
25. San Diego Chargers: Jason Verrett CB TCU
Verrett is underrated because of his lack of ideal height but even at 5’9 he’ll still be the best CB on the Chargers roster. He’s seen by many as a slot corner simply because of his height and while he might struggle matched up against a guy like Demaryius Thomas this kid can hold his own outside. He’s not physical like Dennard but he’s got great natural coverage skills and he reminds me of the old Patriots CB Ty Law, his lack of height never hurt him.
26. Philadelphia Eagles (from Cleveland from Indy): Marcus Smith OLB Louisville
The first major reach of the draft had to have Eagles fans having Mike Mamula flashbacks when the first thing anyone talks about in regards to Smith is that he’s a “workout warrior”. Smith put up some numbers at Louisville but it was his ridiculous athleticism he displayed in workouts that got scouts talking. He played DE at Louisville and he will transition to OLB in Philly’s 3-4 defense. He’s a talented player but his value was end of the second round/ 3rd round not end of the 1st round.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from New Orleans): Deone Buchanan SS Washington St.
The Cardinals reach a little bit as Buchanan has been moving up the board steadily and while the end of the first round is a reach Buchanan is a player that will excel. He’s known as an in-the-box strong safety and he could immediately replace Tony Jefferson in the starting line-up. His physical presence will be a nice complement to the undersized FS Tyrann Mathieu. The Cardinals division is filled with excellent defenses and they are just trying to keep up.
28. Carolina Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin WR Florida St.
The Panthers desperately need WR’s and OL so grabbing Benjamin is not a surprise. I had him falling and I would have taken Marqise Lee here because Lee is ready to play right now. Benjamin has a lot of growing to do and a lot of learning to do. He’s not a great route runner and he lacks discipline on the field and he relies on is sheer size to beat opponents and that won’t always work at the pro level. I think Benjamin is a bust waiting to happen and passing over Lee for him will be a regrettable mistake for the Panthers.
29. New England Patriots: Dominique Easley DT Florida
I love Easley but I’m a bit concerned about drafting an injury risk guy this high. Easley is an undersized DT and is a relentless penetrator in the middle but his knees have been a problem in the past and this seems too high. If he stays healthy he will be a dominant player and eventual replacement for aging DT’s Vince Wilford and Tommy Kelly and he gives the Patriots a different look at the position. Wilfork and Kelly are huge run-stuffing guys that don’t really get into the backfield much anymore so Easley’s penetrating style will be a nice addition.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Jimmie Ward S Northern Illinois
The 49ers are so stacked that there really isn’t a need position so they have the luxury of grabbing the top guy on their board and that was obviously Ward. They signed Antoine Bethea as a free agent replacement for Donte Whitner and Eric Reid was fantastic last year as a rookie but Bethea is 30 years old and Ward is versatile. He’ll make for a nice 3rd safety until Bethea steps aside and then Ward and Reid will make a nice set of safeties. The position is in good hands for years to come.
31. Denver Broncos: Bradley Roby CB Ohio St.
I’m not a fan of Roby but he is the next best corner on the board and the Broncos need someone to line up opposite Aqib Talib because Chris Harris is coming off a knee injury and there is nothing beyond him. With Talib on the other side Roby is going to get picked on so he better grow up fast but Talib is an outstanding corner he can learn from and Roby has all the physical attributes to be a top flight corner.
32. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle): Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
I’m not a Vikings fan but I love this pick so I won’t be cheering as hard against them this year. They can show Christian Ponder the door and let Bridgewater go toe-to-toe with Matt Cassel for the job and while Cassel has the experience Bridgewater is a special talent. Kudos to the Vikings for making the move up to #32 to snatch Bridgewater out from under the Texans who have the #33 pick. If the Texans had ended up getting Clowney at #1 and Bridgewater at #33 they would have had the best draft possible.
Things to look for in Rounds 2 & 3 on Friday night.
- Do the Texans have the guts to draft Derek Carr #33 overall after the career his brother didn’t have after being the #1 pick 12 years ago for them? He is the best QB left on the board.
- Where will the “fallers” out of round 1 go? Marqise Lee is the biggest surprise not going in the first round but QB Derek Carr, OT Cyrus Kouandjio, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, DE Kony Ealy, DT’s Tim Jernigan, Ra’Shede Hageman and Louis Nix are all still available. This really is the deepest draft in a long time.
- Will a RB finally get drafted and how long will we wait in the second round to see it? All the good ones are available because no one went in the first round for the second year in a row. Carlos Hyde, Tre Mason, Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill or Ka’Deem Carey come on down.
- Only one TE off the board? I thought the league was going to these WR/TE hybrids like Jimmy Graham of course Eric Ebron was the only one of that caliber but Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins should go in round 2. Troy Niklas and CJ Fierdorowicz will also go Friday night.
- Where were all of the defensive linemen on night one? Clowney, Donald and Easley were the only real defensive linemen drafted meaning round 2 is full of them. DE’s Kony Ealy, Stephon Tuitt, Scott Crichton and Trent Murphy along with DT’s Louis Nix, Tim Jernigan, Ra’Shede Hageman, Will Sutton, DaQuan Jones and Ego Ferguson are all 2nd round possibilities.
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