2014 Pre-Draft Thoughts and Predictions and a Guide through the Smokescreens

Smokescreens and Other crazy scenarios

• “Houston has narrowed their choices at #1 down to DE Jadeveon Clowney or QB Johnny Manziel”. They conveniently dropped the “if we keep the pick” tagline at the end. Clowney and Manziel are the two most talked about trade targets and Houston wants out of the top spot because they prefer OLB Khalil Mack and for good reason. Mack fits, Clowney doesn’t and they don’t want to take the heat for not taking Johnny Football. They have only hours now to make a trade or bite the bullet and take an OLB from Buffalo (the University not the Bills) at #1 overall.

 

• “St. Louis loves Johnny Manziel and they may take him and trade Sam Bradford”. This is my favorite because it’s absolutely crazy. St. Louis went 7-9 in the toughest division in football with Bradford hurt for a large portion of the season. It’s possible the Rams will give up on Bradford if he gets hurt again or completely sucks this season but not yet and not for Johnny Manziel. St. Louis suckered the Redskins into giving up this pick two years ago for RGIII they aren’t blowing it on Manziel so they can start over at QB. They too would like someone that wants Manziel or Clowney to make an offer for the second pick.

 

• “8-9 WR’s will go in the first round of the draft”. Don’t believe the Mel Kiper/ Todd McShay hype on this first round dominated by WR’s there is a reason neither of these two would ever be a GM. After the top 5 WR’s (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks and Marqise Lee) it’s a crapshoot. Teams still understand value and the 9^th best WR is not more valuable than a starting OT or DE. If any position gets overvalued in this draft it will be OT. Cyrus Kouandjio, Morgan Moses and JuWuan James might sneak into the end of round 1 because they can start at OT in the NFL. Maybe Cody Latimore or Allen Robinson sneak into the end of the round but that would only make 6 and I don’t see 2-3 more making it.

 

• “Chip Kelly loves Johnny Manziel and will trade up to get him”. This dumbass rumor comes from the fact that at one time Manziel was committed to Oregon when Kelly was the head coach and somehow now Kelly is going to give up on Nick Foles and go with Manziel. Stupid. Here’s the scenario I would love to see play out. Manziel gets passed over and is still available at pick #13, the Rams second 1^st rounder, and the talking heads are going crazy over the Rams taking him to replace Bradford. Then Roger Goodell steps to the podium and says “there’s been a trade, the Philadelphia Eagles are on the clock”. ESPN’s Chris Berman, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Jon Gruden start losing their minds over the prospect of Manziel in Kelly’s offense, Kiper’s head would explode except his hair won’t let that happen. They spend five minutes saying how Kelly is getting the guy he wanted so badly in Manziel. Finally ESPN’s only voice of reason Adam Schefter comes in and says “that not what my sources are telling me.” Roger Goodell strolls back to the podium and says “With the 13^th pick in the 2014 draft the Philadelphia Eagles select…Brandin Cooks, wide receiver, Oregon St.” Kelly gets the guy he wants but it’s DeSean Jackson 2.0 aka DeSean Jackson without the drama. Cooks is the Jackson replacement Kelly wants and he has no intention of giving up on Foles, who was magnificent last year running Kelly’s offense. Yes I wrote that entire scenario out just so I could take a shot at ESPN’s draft guys.

 

• Apparently no one is drafting Johnny Football. In the last 48 hours I’ve seen reports that the Texans (#1), Rams (#2), Jaguars (#3), Browns (#4), Raiders (#5) and Vikings (#8) have no interest in drafting Manziel with their first picks. The Falcons (#6), Bills (#9) and Lions (#10) don’t need a QB so that just leaves the Buccaneers at #7 in the top 10. See, my falling to #13 scenario isn’t so far-fetched.

 

• Every mock draft I read lately has the Vikings taking DT Aaron Donald. All of the sudden the underrated Donald is being over drafted. Donald is a disruptor and everyone is saying that the Vikings are getting “the next John Randle”, I get it they once had John Randle. What doesn’t make sense is they just signed free agent Linval Joseph (one of the best and most underrated signings of the offseason) and they drafted Sharrif Floyd last season. Grabbing a third DT would be nice but the Vikings have bigger needs.

Thoughts and Predictions

• 4 QB’s go in the first round (Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater and Carr). There have been rumors about each one of these guys falling out of the first round during different parts of the draft process. I’m not buying it, it’s a QB league and too many teams don’t have QB’s.

 

• The San Francisco 49ers have more picks than they have room for on their roster so look for them to use those excess picks to move up and if I were guessing (and I am) I would say they move up in round 1 for either Odell Beckham or Brandin Cooks.

 

• Virginia Tech CB Kyle Fuller is the fast riser and he could go as high as #10 overall to Detroit, he probably won’t but he could be this year’s DJ Hayden. His injury-riddled senior year kept him from being at the top of everyone’s lists to begin with but as scouts went back and looked at his junior year his skills became apparent. Good CB’s are hard to find so he’s climbing the board
• Because of the lack of elite OT in this draft guys like Zack Martin, Cyrus Kouandjio and Morgan Moses will get over drafted. OT is one of the most important positions so teams will reach.

 

• Fuller is the late riser, I think Kelvin Benjamin is the late faller. Benjamin is the huge WR from Florida St. and he made the game winning catch for FSU in the National Championship Game. He lacks great speed and will struggle to get separation against NFL corners. If I were a team needing a WR there are about 15 WR’s I’d take before Benjamin, you think I’m kidding? Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Cody Latimore, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, Davante Adams, Bruce Ellington, Jarvis Landry, Paul Richardson, Jared Abbrederis and Martavis Bryant. Yeah I’m not his biggest fan.

 

• It is a virtual certainty that this will be the second year in a row that no RB’s go in the first round; it would be a monumental upset if one gets picked. That doesn’t mean there won’t be big time contributors like last year’s class (Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, LeVeon Bell and Montee Ball). Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason and Ka’Deem Carey are all very good backs. Sleeper choice: Devonte Freeman from Florida St. Damn that team was talented last year.

 

• Somebody is going to draft Cody Latimore before Marqise Lee and I’m going to want to throw something at the TV. Future prediction: unemployed GM regrets this decision.

 

• The Patriots will draft a QB at some point and it may be in round 2 or 3. Tom Brady will be 37 years old and he only has a few seasons left, the problem is that those few seasons will be enough to run out Ryan Mallett’s contract so the Patriots will have to trade Mallett just to get something out of him. That trade could happen this weekend at some point so the Patriots need a new QB of the future and this draft has some good candidates…I’m crossing my fingers for Aaron Murray.

 

• Haha Clinton-Dix and Calvin Pryor are the only two safeties I have going in the first round but Jimmie Ward from Northern Illinois could sneak in at the end. Ward is a very solid all-around safety and his coverage ability makes him valuable in today’s NFL. He’s a little short but so Matt Elam and he snuck into the first round last year.

 

• Every mock draft, including mine, has the Titans taking OLB Anthony Barr at #11 overall so there is no possible way this will actually happen (that’s just the way mock drafts work). He’s the perfect fit and the right value so someone in Tennessee will over think it and screw it up. The Titans are the dark horse team for a falling QB like Manziel. They could also possibly grab the first CB off the board if Detroit doesn’t take one at #10.

 

• I predicted TE Eric Ebron to the Buffalo Bills and apparently I wasn’t the only one throwing darts at the dart board on that one. I’ve seen WR Mike Evans, WR Odell Beckham, OT Jake Matthews, S Haha Clinton-Dix and I’m pretty sure I saw one with QB Blake Bortles but that makes no sense whatsoever. The point is NO ONE has a clue what the Buffalo Bills are going to do. I’m throwing out CJ Mosley as a possibility just because no one has mentioned a LB.

 

• There are reports that QB Zach Mettenberger and DT Tim Jernigan (along with some other players) failed their drug tests at the combine. If it’s true it could knock them down a bit meaning my Jernigan fall in the mock draft might actually happen. The reports mention marijuana and “diluted samples” and I’m going to refrain from making the obligatory “they can still play for Denver or Seattle” jokes, it’s just too easy.

 

• As an Iowa Hawkeye fan I always enjoy it when a Hawkeye gets drafted so if you feel the same way tune in late Friday because that’s when TE CJ Fiedorowicz is likely to get drafted, after that it’s a crapshoot. I think LB Christian Kirksey goes off the board in round 5 and fellow LB’s Anthony Hitchens and James Morris may go in round 7 but I wouldn’t bet on it. Don’t hold your breath for OG Conor Boffeli or OT Brett Van Sloten, maybe one of them pulls an Adam Gettis and shocks us all. K Mike Meyer, CB BJ Lowery and long snapper Casey Kreiter will get a shot as undrafted free agents and all three have a shot to make a roster. There will be absolute stunned silence across the state if FS Tanner Miller or WR Don Shumpert gets drafted and I’ll be shocked if anyone even brings them into minicamp but stranger things have happened (even James Vandenberg got a shot with the Vikings after his disastrous senior season).