I’m predicting a trade of the #1 overall pick with the Atlanta Falcons moving up from #6. As always I reserve the right to completely disavow this whole thing and I probably will in about a week. The draft is 10 days away so start getting excited it’s finally within sight.
1. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston 2-14): Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
Normally I don’t try to predict possible trades in my mock drafts but this trade makes too much sense given that Clowney is clearly the top prospect but is a poor fit for the Texans defense. The Falcons on the other hand are a very good fit and they are a team that is willing to make a move to get the pass rusher they have needed for years. New Falcon’s defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has a history using both 4-3 and 3-4 defensive principles so he will design multiple ways to use Clowney’s skills. The Texans can move down to #6, still get a player they want and add at least an extra pick. There has been speculation that it will cost the Falcons either their first round pick next year or at least their second rounder this year. I wouldn’t usually advise trading a future first round pick but if the Falcons have a choice between next year’s first rounder and this year’s second rounder (#37 overall) I say give up next year’s pick. Adding Clowney and this year’s #37 pick in what is a very deep draft might be enough to help Atlanta make a big turnaround next year and make that first rounder in the late twenties at least.
Boom or Bust: I think Clowney has more potential to be a boom pick for the Falcons than for the Texans. Nolan will do things with him that Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel won’t think of.
2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington 3-13): Greg Robinson OT Auburn
The Rams play in the toughest division in football with three teams with outstanding defenses. Seattle and San Francisco are two elite pass rushing teams and Arizona is not far behind and if St. Louis wants to give Sam Bradford a legitimate chance to stay healthy and prove he’s their future at QB they need to provide him with more weapons and better protection. While I prefer Jake Matthews it is fairly split on which LT is better and it appears that St. Louis likes Robinson’s potential more. Robinson could step in at RT or play OG if need be and if Jake Long doesn’t recover quickly enough from his knee injury than Robinson might have to step in a LT right away. He is the long term solution anyway but if Long can play than the Rams can let him develop before he has to take over that spot. Robinson has elite level LT potential and in five years he might be one of the top 5 LT’s in the NFL.
Boom or Bust: With some good coaching and a little patience the sky is the limit for a guy like Robinson. He has every physical attribute and he is just maturing at this point. I think Robinson is a boom pick and truthfully I think he replaces Long at LT sooner rather than later.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12): Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
As much as the Jaguars need a franchise QB they have Chad Henne to hold down the spot until they find one and Khalil Mack may be the transcendent talent head coach Gus Bradley needs to turn around his defense. Bradley worked with some very good defensive players in Seattle before he came to Jacksonville so he knows what it takes to build a defense. Mack is more than just a top-notch pass rusher he is an outstanding all-around linebacker. He has the potential to be Von Miller without the off the field issues. Jadeveon Clowney has received the lion’s share of the hype as the top defender in this draft but Mack has slowly been closing the gap and the reason why you haven’t heard much about Jacksonville trying to trade up to the top spot to get Clowney is because they have a very good feeling they can land Mack at #3.
Boom or Bust: This one isn’t even close, Mack will be a star. He’s an every down player that will make the biggest impact on his team’s defense and he’s my pick (along with a lot of other people’s picks) to be Defensive Rookie of the Year.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
The Browns need a franchise QB just like many of the teams choosing at the top of the draft but the value of the top players at the position (Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel) seems to be falling. The Browns have a later pick in the first round where one of them may fall or a player they like better (Derek Carr) will probably be available. Watkins is the top offensive playmaker in this draft and is definitely a top 5 value. The Browns future franchise QB, whomever that may be, would benefit greatly from having Watkins alongside WR Josh Gordon, TE Jordan Cameron, newly signed RB Ben Tate and new slot receiver Andrew Hawkins. Even if the Browns wait until later and take a QB that needs some time to develop they still have Brian Hoyer as the veteran holdover that played pretty well last year before he got hurt and would do pretty well in a new offense featuring these weapons.
Boom or Bust: Watkins catch and run ability would be a superb complement to Gordon’s over-the-top deep speed and Hawkins underneath ability. Cameron proved to be a huge weapon down the seam and Tate is a serious upgrade at RB. If Watkins doesn’t post eye-popping numbers it will be because he has to share the wealth not because he’s a bust.
5. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
Manziel just seems like the type of player the Raiders with go for given the splash it will make. GM Reggie McKenzie is fighting for his job and his desperation has been evident by his free agent signings of past-their-prime veterans like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Donald Penn and Carlos Rogers and the trade for QB Matt Schaub. The Raiders need help all over the field and a choice like OT Jake Matthews would be a far safer investment in the future but McKenzie is trying to buy himself some time and grabbing headline maker Johnny Football might buy him an extra year or two. Having Schaub around would mean Manziel would at least have to beat out a legitimate starting QB to win the job but given how Schaub played last year I don’t think it would take long. Manziel is a playmaker and he knows how to buy time with his feet which is a trait that would come in handy given the state of the Raiders offensive line. WR James Jones was signed from Green Bay so there is at least one legit receiver on the team and perhaps the tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden will provide some semblance of a running game. The Raiders don’t seem to have a long term plan to fix their roster so shooting for the moon with the Manziel pick might be worth the gamble.
Boom or Bust: I’m pretty sure you can already see where I’m going with this but just so we’re clear I’m calling bust here. The Raiders are perpetually stuck in rebuilding mode and when you consistently miss on your first-round picks that’s where you stay. I’ll give last year’s 1st rounder DJ Hayden more time before deciding about him and the Raiders didn’t have a 1st round pick in either 2011 or 2012 but here are their previous seven 1st rounders; Rolando McClain, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell, Michael Huff, Fabian Washington and Robert Gallery. That explains a lot.
6. Houston Texans (from Atlanta 4-12): Blake Bortles QB Central Florida
He isn’t my favorite QB but that doesn’t mean I don’t see the potential in a guy with his size and skills. At 6’5 230 lbs. Bortles profiles like a franchise QB and he fits the profile that new Texans coach Bill O’Brien prefers. He is a pocket passer but he does possess the mobility to move out of the pocket when needed the problem is that his throwing mechanics break down a bit when on the move. In an offense built around the running of Arian Foster and a passing attack featuring Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins Bortles could be pretty good. One other knock on Bortles is that for a guy his size he doesn’t have as strong of an arm as you would expect. O’Brien worked with Tom Brady for years and Brady doesn’t have the strongest arm either but it has never been a problem for him. Also Brady has virtually no mobility and is the quintessential pocket passer so O’Brien can design the offense to keep Bortles in the pocket as much as possible. I don’t see Bortles as an unquestionable starter from day one in the NFL but given that the Texans other choices are newly signed back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick and holdovers Case Keenum and TJ Yates I think Bortles would win the job quickly.
Boom or Bust: I’m not sure Bortles is either one and he actually might just turn out to be the next Matt Schaub. Schaub was never in the same sphere as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers but he was a pretty good starter for seven seasons. On a team that relies on its running game and leans on its defense Bortles could make a nice starting QB, if O’Brien needs more he may be disappointed.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Mike Evans WR Texas A&M
The Buccaneers filled almost all of their glaring needs through free agency but the one remaining issue came up after they traded WR Mike Williams to the Bills. The Bucs needed help at WR even with Williams but now they need a starter opposite Vincent Jackson. Evans is a 6’5 230 lbs. freak and many people actually compare him to Vincent Jackson. Jackson and Evans could form a nice tandem that will remind new QB Josh McCown of the Bears duo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery that he had so much success with last season. Evans has the size and speed every team looks for and playing with a veteran like Vincent Jackson would be just what he needs to help him learn the nuances of the game and how to be a professional. The biggest concern with Evans is that he is overly emotional on the field and bit of a hot head. A team led by veterans like McCown, Jackson, and Lavonte David and a veteran head coach like Lovie Smith is exactly what Evans needs to succeed.
Boom or Bust: Evans is the new breed of WR in the NFL and his physical abilities are without question. Tampa Bay would be the perfect setting for him to get a chance to learn while actually getting to play and make a difference. He wouldn’t have to be the top guy right away but it won’t be long until he takes over. Veteran players, veteran coach and a veteran staff would be huge given his maturity issues. I think he’s a boom in Tampa Bay, if the Raiders draft him 5th overall he’s got bust written all over him.
8. Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1): Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
Three years ago the Vikings made the mistake of reaching in the first round and drafting Christian Ponder well above his value, this year they shouldn’t make the mistake of being gun shy if Bridgewater is available. Bridgewater didn’t have a stellar pro day workout for scouts and he is sliding down draft boards because of it. One of the issues brought up about his workout was that he didn’t wear a glove on his throwing hand during the workout and that seemed to affect his grip. Bridgewater doesn’t have the biggest hands so it is possible he needs the glove to help him grip the football properly. I can confirm that I’ve watched a lot of Bridgewater’s videos and I don’t recall him not wearing a glove during games. The Vikings would be wise to grab Bridgewater here and invest in a case of right handed gloves. Their future at QB would be secure.
Boom or Bust: I’ve been a fan of Bridgewater for a while and maybe he can become the spokesman for Nike or Under Armour’s football gloves as well as someone’s franchise QB. Minnesota would be the perfect place for a QB that needs to wear a glove.
9. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
The Bills defense was their strength last season meaning their offense should get some attention early in the draft. Last year’s 1st round pick QB EJ Manuel needs help on the offensive line and at TE. OT Jake Matthews and TE Eric Ebron should be the Bills focus, Matthews could step right in at RT and Ebron is easily the top rated TE in this draft. Both players bring great value and while I love Matthews the combination of Ebron and a second round RT seems better than Matthews and a second round TE. Ebron is the new breed of TE as he is an athletic down the field type of player. He would bring a new dimension to the Bills offense and provide Manuel with a big red zone threat.
Boom or Bust: Ebron could be an even more productive player in the NFL than he was in college. He is the type of athlete NFL teams covet at TE and offensive coordinators love the type of matchup problems he’ll create. Ebron will only be held back if EJ Manuel doesn’t turn out to be the franchise QB the Bills think he is.
10. Detroit Lions (7-9): Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
I’ve been beating the drum for the Lions to address their secondary as much as anyone but given the fact that the cornerback position seems to be a jumbled pick’em at this point this is an easy choice. Matthews is a value pick at a position of need and while they have Riley Reiff at LT Matthews would allow them the opportunity to either play Matthews at RT or possibly move Reiff to RT depending on who they decide is better suited to the left side. The right tackle position is a major hole in the offense at the moment and regardless of who ends up where having Reiff and Matthews bookending the line would be a huge upgrade in front of Matthew Stafford. WR and CB are two other areas of need but the value isn’t there at #10 overall and the depth of those positions means the Lions can find players available in the second round.
Boom or Bust: Jake Matthews is a day one starting tackle and barring an injury he’ll be a mainstay for the next 10-12 years. He has the versatility to excel at LT or RT and if the Lions get him at #10 he might be the steal of the draft. BOOM, future Pro Bowler.
11. Tennessee Titans (7-9): Anthony Barr OLB UCLA
New defensive coordinator Ray Horton should be doing cartwheels in the draft room if Barr is there for the Titans at #11. Horton’s new 3-4 hybrid look for Tennessee would be the perfect place for Barr to shine. Barr is still a bit raw when it comes to his overall linebacker skills but he’s a pass rushing nightmare. The Titans signed Shaun Phillips to give them some pop at OLB and that’s good because Barr won’t be pressured to come in and have to know everything right away. He can focus on being a pass rusher and learn the position for a year from a seasoned veteran like Phillips.
Boom or Bust: Barr is perfect for Horton and the Titans and he will be a fantastic fit there. If Barr goes to a team like the Vikings or the Lions where he would be miscast in a 4-3 defense then he has huge bust potential because he doesn’t possess the those sort of linebacker skills yet. He is a fantastic athlete that is still learning the position but he will always be better as an attacking OLB getting after the opposing QB.
12. New York Giants (7-9): Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh
The Giants offensive line was atrocious last season but they signed free agents; OT Charles Brown, OG John Jerry, OG Geoff Schwartz and C JD Walton, trying to address it. They failed to address the losses of DT’s Linval Joseph, Mike Patterson and Shaun Rogers and DE Justin Tuck at all. The Giants built two Super Bowl winning defenses around outstanding defensive line play so it’s safe to assume they will address it early and often in the draft. DT Aaron Donald isn’t your prototypical DT but he does one thing better than any DT in this draft and that’s get into the backfield and disrupt offenses. Donald is too short and too small for many teams but he’s too good to pass up if you’re the Giants. Putting him on the line with Jason Pierre-Paul, Mathias Kiwanuku and Jonathan Hankins will be a good start to rebuilding a dominant defense.
Boom or Bust: I would never underestimate a guy with the heart and the motor that Donald shows on film. He never quits and even when he’s matched up against a superior physical talent he still wins as much as he loses if not more. Doubting or underestimating a guy like Donald is just another reason why he destroys his opponents.
13. St. Louis Rams (7-9): Hasean “HaHa” Clinton-Dix S Alabama
While the Rams could use a true #1 WR to pair with Tavon Austin their need at safety is greater. Clinton-Dix is valued somewhere between 10-15 in this draft so he fits and he would make a huge addition to the secondary. Chris Long and Robert Quinn provide an outstanding pass rush and Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson are nice duo at CB but pairing Clinton-Dix with TJ McDonald at safety would be a nice upgrade to the back end. The Rams are taking a shot at WR with free agent signee Kenny Britt but even if he doesn’t pan out they have some others (Brian Quick, Austin Pettis and Stedman Bailey) on the roster and could still come away with a WR in round 2 due to the depth in this draft.
Boom or Bust: Haha Clinton-Dix should be just the ball hawk at free safety the Rams need and he would take a lot of pressure off of Jenkins, Johnson and McDonald by roaming the deep middle. Clinton-Dix is a dark horse candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
14. Chicago Bears (8-8): Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma St.
The Bears need an infusion of youth at virtually every level of their defense and the secondary is no exception. The CB position has become a jumbled mess as Justin Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard, Jason Verrett, Kyle Fuller and Bradley Roby have become almost indistinguishable from each other. Each player has his strengths and weaknesses and the longer the draft process goes on the more the beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I’m giving the Bears Gilbert because besides being a top flight CB prospect he is also a fantastic return man. The Bears resigned Charles Tillman and still have Tim Jennings so Gilbert can contribute in the return game while learning from some veterans and if the Bears need him he can step in for Tillman or Jennings.
Boom or Bust: I’m always a little leery about CB prospects that are better athletes than they are cover guys so Gilbert scares me. I like Dennard better and after re-watching some stuff from Kyle Fuller’s junior year I like him better too. I think Gilbert could be a bust simply because he relies on his athleticism more than a having a natural cover ability. He would be wise if he goes to the Bears to spend as much time around Tillman as possible because he has been a top flight corner for a long time and it’s not because of his athleticism.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
As an organization the Steelers have been a model of consistency but their roster is aging and they have a number of holes to fill so they could go in a variety of directions. Due to several misses at OT in the past few years the Steelers would be lucky if Lewan falls this far in the draft. Many mock drafts have Lewan going in the top 10 or 12 picks because of the importance of the LT position and because the drop off after him is significant. Lewan is not in the same class as Robinson or Matthews but he would be a solid starter and a huge upgrade in Pittsburgh. Whether he ends up a LT or swings over to the right side will depend on the team drafting him but either way he would fit the Pittsburgh Steelers mold and will bring some talent and attitude to their line.
Boom or Bust: Lewan has the chance to be an outstanding RT in the NFL or a decent LT. Pittsburgh might play him on the left side because he’s better than anyone they have but I would say they should keep looking for a LT in the future and move Lewan over if possible. Maybe not a boom pick but the Steelers wouldn’t regret it either.
16. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Calvin Pryor S Louisville
The Cowboys defense was terrible last year and could use help at each level. They recently re-signed DE Anthony Spencer to a one year deal and they added free agent DT Henry Melton from the Bears but that doesn’t solve their issues. DT’s Tim Jernigan and Louis Nix along with DE Kony Ealy are all possibilities here but S Calvin Pryor would solve a long standing need that the Cowboys have been ignoring. Pryor is the next best safety after Clinton-Dix and the drop off after him is pretty steep. The defensive line class is deeper and the Cowboys can address that need in round 2 or 3 but they won’t get a safety like Pryor later. Pryor isn’t the ball hawk Clinton-Dix is but he’s very solid in run support and he would be a coverage upgrade over the current safety group. Teaming him with CB’s Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne would seriously upgrade the secondary.
Boom or Bust: Pryor is the type of player that brings a new attitude to your defense and adds swagger to the secondary. Carr and Claiborne would play with more confidence having Pryor backing them up deep and that is what you want in a free safety. Pryor is a player and he won’t disappoint.
17. Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU
The Ravens need a RT more than a WR but Ozzie Newsome has never been one to draft need over talent and Beckham is the best player on the board. The addition of Steve Smith in free agency certainly lessened the Ravens’ need for a WR but Smith will be 35 years old this upcoming season and a three receiver set of Torrey Smith, Steve Smith and Odell Beckham would make Joe Flacco a pretty dangerous QB. OT Zack Martin could be the pick here but I’m not sold on him as a RT and I doubt Newsome is either. The RT position is one that could be filled with the Ravens second round pick and passing up a talent like Beckham would be difficult if there is any question about Martin.
Boom or Bust: The Ravens are pretty good at this draft thing and while Newsome’s overall record of drafting WR’s isn’t great he did draft Torrey Smith a few years ago, he once traded for Anquan Boldin and he just signed Steve Smith, so maybe he’s figuring it out. Beckham is a talent and while he isn’t the biggest guy he is a great route runner and he’s got plenty of speed, I don’t think he’s a bust.
18. New York Jets (8-8): Brandin Cooks WR Oregon St.
The more I watch him the more I love him and the less I want the Jets to get him. Cooks is a dynamo and pairing him with free agent addition Eric Decker would go a long way towards turning around the Jets’ horrific WR corps. It’s unfortunate that a talented receiver like Cooks will be wasted by a team that has Geno Smith or Michael Vick at QB but Cooks is a talent the Jets shouldn’t pass up. If he went to a team with a better offense he could put up some eye popping numbers. Cooks is everything Tavon Austin was supposed to be but he doesn’t get the hype because he’s in the deepest WR class in a long time while Austin was in one of the worst.
Boom or Bust: The only thing holding Cooks back from being the Offensive Rookie of the Year is bad QB play. In two years when the Jets are picking #1 overall because Geno Smith has been a bust they can correct their mistake and take Jameis Winston out of Florida St, wait a second I hate that idea. Anyway, Cooks is a star that hopefully won’t be destroyed by the black hole that is the Jets offense.
19. Miami Dolphins (8-8): Zack Martin OT Notre Dame
By the end of last season the Dolphins had the worst offensive line in football and now that Jonathan Martin, Richie Incognito, John Jerry and Martin replacement Bryant McKinnie are all gone the overhaul is in full swing. LT Brandon Albert is an upgrade but free agents Shelley Smith and Jason Fox aren’t turning things around. Zack Martin could be used at RT and he would be a better option than Fox but he may end up as a guard and the Dolphins need those too. While Martin’s versatility makes it hard to project him for some teams it would be a blessing to the Dolphins because it would allow them to play their best linemen and plug Martin in where they need him. Between Brandon Albert at LT, Mike Pouncey at C and Zack Martin the Dolphins would have 3/5 of a solid offensive line and that’s a start.
Boom or Bust: Zack Martin is never going to be a Pro Bowler at offensive tackle and he may never make a Pro Bowl at guard either but he’s a 10 year starter at guard in the NFL and he has the versatility to plug in where you need him. He started a lot of games at LT for Notre Dame and while he doesn’t project to that position full-time in the NFL he could spot start there if you need him. He’s not a boom but he certainly isn’t a bust either, he’s a solid NFL player for the next decade.
20. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): CJ Mosley ILB Alabama
I had the Cardinals ticketed for OLB Dee Ford in my previous mock draft because of their need to get a young pass rusher but that mock had Mosley off the board. They lost ILB Karlos Dansby to free agency and while they do have Kevin Minter available as a replacement he isn’t nearly the playmaker Dansby was or the Mosley can be. Mosley has been a leader for one the best defenses in college football over the last several years and his skill set works in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense and he would slide in nicely next to Daryl Washington at ILB for Arizona. There will still be some good options at OLB in the second round and the Cardinals shouldn’t pass up the best inside linebacker in the draft.
Boom or Bust: As they say there is no sure thing in the NFL draft but CJ Mosley is about as sure of a thing as you can find. Mosley is a quality player and quality leader and that’s two things you want in an inside linebacker. The Cardinals defense would barely notice Dansby’s absence with Mosley in his place.
21. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1): Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
The Packers ventured into the free agency market to address their lack of a pass rush and signed Julius Peppers given GM Ted Thompson’s usual distain for big free agent signings this is notable. The return from injury by players like OT Bryan Bulaga and WR Randall Cobb will help the offense while DL Jerel Worthy and CB Casey Heyward’s return should help the depth on defense. NT BJ Raji was re-signed to a one year deal and Ryan Pickett wasn’t brought back meaning the Packers need help in the middle of their defensive line. Louis Nix is the best nose tackle prospect in the draft and he is amazing value at #21. Nix is a beast and the fact that he was hurt for part of last year at Notre Dame should make him feel right at home with the guys in Green Bay. The Packers lost a lot of players to injury last year and they need to replenish their depth.
Boom or Bust: Nix is a versatile defensive lineman and he will excel at NT playing between ends Mike Daniels and Datone Jones. Nose tackles aren’t flashy by trade so if you don’t hear his name called a lot next year that’s probably a good sign it means he’s doing his job.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Dee Ford OLB Auburn
Trent Cole and Connor Barwin combined for 13 sacks last year and Brandon Graham has been a bust. The Eagles defense was awful last year and a pass rush would certainly help out the secondary. Dee Ford was a terror off the edge at DE for Auburn in their turnaround season but he profiles more as an OLB in the NFL because of his size. Ford even dropped some weight and embraced the move to OLB and his natural pass rushing instincts will still serve him well. The Eagles desire for a playmaker at OLB is even more obvious when you consider there have been rumors that the Eagles have tried to trade for Dolphins bust Dion Jordan who played for Chip Kelly at Oregon. Ford thinks he’s the best pass rusher in the draft, even better than Clowney, so he doesn’t lack for confidence.
Boom or Bust: There are a number of 3-4 teams right in this late teen/ early twenties area that could take Ford and he would excel. The Jets, Ravens, Cardinals, Packers or Eagles would all be great fits for him and Ford would not disappoint for them. If a 4-3 team like the Dolphins take him and try to play him at DE he will get eaten alive.
23. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5): Marqise Lee WR USC
The Chiefs need a free safety and some help on the offensive line but passing on a talent like Marqise Lee would be foolish. Andy Reid isn’t likely to reach for a safety here with Clinton-Dix and Pryor off the board and while he has a propensity to take linemen (offensive and defensive) in the first round there aren’t any offensive linemen that compare to Lee. The Chiefs only have Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery at WR so Lee would be a welcome addition especially with Bowe’s love/hate relationship with the franchise. Alex Smith would certainly appreciate the precision with which Lee runs his routes and his ability to get open. The free agent losses of Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz can’t be overlooked but Reid will find some offensive line replacements deeper in the draft.
Boom or Bust: Marqise Lee is too good of route runner and too elusive to not be an excellent WR in the NFL for years to come. The only thing that could possibly derail his career is a recurrence of the injuries that set him back last year at USC. He’s the type of WR that makes a QB look good, you’re welcome Alex Smith.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5): Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
The Bengals need a linebacker to replace James Harrison but the value just isn’t there and with Terrence Newman getting up there in age and Leon Hall having numerous injury issues grabbing a CB is a smart pick. Fuller is coming off an injury plagued senior season but when he’s healthy he’s a fantastic player. The Bengals have done a great job stacking their defense over the years and they can find a LB later but former 1st round pick CB Dre Kirkpatrick hasn’t lived up to the hype so the Bengals need to refresh the position and Fuller is a good way to start. They also are lucky enough to have in-house replacements for their two biggest free agent defections. LT Andy Whitworth will slide back to his spot to replace Anthony Collins and the Bengals drafted DE Margus Hunt last year knowing that they were going to lose Michael Johnson this off season. They still may look for a DE just in case Hunt isn’t up to the task but they can do that later.
Boom or Bust: Fuller isn’t the biggest guy but he likes to play like a bigger man and that may make him susceptible to injury in his career. Injury ended his senior season early and it is the one thing that may keep him from becoming a top-notch CB.
25. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan St.
The worst group of cornerbacks in the NFL resides in San Diego and the Chargers have to do something about that this year. They would be absolutely ecstatic if Dennard falls to this spot because his physical brand of coverage is exactly what the Chargers current group of CB’s can’t do. Shareece Wright, Steve Williams and Richard Marshall are not physical at all and the Chargers defense suffers because of it. The lack of a pass rush and less than stellar strong safety play aren’t helping the secondary but the inability to get physical at the line of scrimmage is a bigger culprit in the poor pass defense. Dennard would bring talent and attitude that’s been missing for quite a while in San Diego.
Boom or Bust: Dennard has a mean streak and he won’t back down from anyone and while he may get beat from time to time by opposing teams #1 WR he’ll step right back up the next play. Guys like Dennard will lose a battle or two but they stick around a long time.
26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis 11-5): Derek Carr QB Fresno St.
The Browns new offense will have Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins and Andrew Hawkins at WR, Jordan Cameron at TE and feature Ben Tate at RB, all they are missing is the QB of the future and sitting here at #26 is Derek Carr. Carr isn’t as big as Blake Bortles, he doesn’t run around making plays like Johnny Manziel and he isn’t as athletic as Teddy Bridgewater but he is highly accurate and he knows how to get the ball to his playmakers. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is going to love Derek Carr and while he may not be the chic pick Johnny Manziel would have been at #4 Carr can be a very good starter in the NFL. Brian Hoyer will be there to hold down the fort if Carr isn’t ready right away and he won’t go down without a fight so if Carr does become the starter you’ll know he earned it. This isn’t a repeat of the Browns taking Brandon Weeden a few years ago, Carr is a legitimate NFL caliber player.
Boom or Bust: The biggest difference between the Browns taking Weeden a few years ago and taking Carr now is that Carr will have a far better offense to work with and if this happens he will put up the best numbers of any rookie QB this season.
27. New Orleans Saints (11-5): Demarcus Lawrence OLB Boise St.
There is always a late rising prospect in the weeks leading up to the draft and this year it is Demarcus Lawrence from Boise St. Lawrence was a transfer from the JUCO ranks who played two years but left with one year of eligibility remaining. He was a dominant player on the field in the Mountain West Conference but he was suspended three different times for a game each which has brought up some character concerns. He seems to be passing teams’ evaluations of him and his versatility in the Broncos’ schemes makes him a great fit for Rob Ryan’s defense. Junior Galette was fantastic for the Saints last year as a pass rushing OLB but the opposite side left a lot to be desired. Rob Ryan would find a myriad of ways to use a talent like Lawrence and he could help make New Orleans defense scary.
Boom or Bust: I’m skeptical of late rising prospects especially ones with character questions. I’m not sure what each of his suspensions were for but it seems quite obvious that following rules is an issue for him. The Saints have a veteran coaching staff and veteran locker room so perhaps they can keep him on the straight and narrow. I’m still feeling a bust with this one.
28. Carolina Panthers (12-4): Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
I’m not completely sure how a team that went 12-4 has this many holes on it but the release of WR Steve Smith and the retirement of LT Jordan Gross didn’t do them any favors. This team simultaneously has the league’s worst WR corps and the worst offensive line. At least the Raiders WR corps has James Jones (whom the Panthers should have signed) and the offensive line is made up of Ryan Kalil at center and 4 guys no one has ever heard of. Oh sorry I’ve heard of RT Byron Bell which means I know how bad he is. Kouandjio had a disappointing junior year at Alabama but he declared for the draft because of his potential and then he had a horrendous time at the combine because of some medical questions. Usually this combination would have a guy sliding into the third round but luckily for him the Panthers are desperate and they are rolling the dice. Kouandjio will look like a Hall of Famer in camp compared to the rest of the OT’s in Carolina so they just have to hope his knees hold up and they can coach the inconsistency out of him.
Boom or Bust: Overall I think Kouandjio is going to be a bust because he struggled at times last year in college and his knees may be made out of Swiss cheese. He’s lucky because it’s not likely anyone is going to notice his poor play on the line next season in Carolina because the whole line will be terrible, I feel bad for Ryan Kalil.
29. New England Patriots (12-4): Ra’Shede Hageman DT Minnesota
Vince Wilfork is 32 and Tommy Kelly is 33 and both are coming off injuries last year which means the Patriots need someone to take the pressure off this year and eventually replace these two defensive tackles. Hageman is a giant at 6’6 310 lbs. and would be a very versatile lineman just like Bill Belichick likes. Hageman wasn’t always as dominant as his physical skills would lead you to think he would be but Belichick could be the coach that pushes him to reach his full potential. The Patriots have other needs like TE or SS but DT offers the most value and the Patriots would be wise to take advantage.
Boom or Bust: I think Hageman has major bust potential because guys that have always been able to rely on their physical stature to dominate find out quickly that that doesn’t cut it in the NFL. Hageman would do well to go to New England and learn from two grizzled veterans like Wilfork and Kelly and be coached by another grizzled veteran in Belichick. I fear this pick as a Patriots fan.
30. San Francisco 49ers (12-4): Ryan Shazier LB Ohio St.
Shazier doesn’t immediately look like a fit in the 49ers 3-4 defense but he has a lot of versatility and with ILB Navarro Bowman sustaining an injury in the playoffs and OLB Aldon Smith’s future a question mark the 49ers could use a player like Shazier. He could line up inside and be a tackling machine next to Patrick Willis just like Bowman or he could float outside and use his exceptional speed as a pass rusher. The Niners look for playmakers and find a place to play them. When they signed DE Justin Smith as a free agent a few years ago he didn’t look like a fit but he’s been fantastic for them. Shazier can do so many things and his elite speed is something you can’t coach.
Boom or Bust: Shazier may be a Buckeye but I love him anyway. He is a fantastic linebacker that does so many things there is no way he will fail. A great organization, a great coach and great player make for a pretty good combination.
31. Denver Broncos (13-3): Xavier Su’a-Filo OG UCLA
The Broncos signed a number of free agents to address many of their needs. DeMarcus Ware was signed to replace Shaun Phillips, Aqib Talib was signed to replace Champ Bailey and Emmanuelle Sanders was signed to replace Eric Decker. TJ Ward was also signed to upgrade their SS spot and the return of LT Ryan Clady will be much appreciated by Peyton Manning. The one free agent loss they haven’t accounted for was LG Zane Beadles who got a big contract in Jacksonville. Enter UCLA OG Xavier Su’a-Filo, it’s not a sexy pick but keeping Peyton Manning upright is priority #1 and the return of Clady and addition of Su’a-Filo would make a huge difference. The Broncos were dominated at the line of scrimmage in the Super Bowl by the Seahawks relentless pressure and I doubt Su’a-Filo will be the last offensive lineman they draft. Clady at LT and Su’a-Filo at LG would make Peyton Manning sleep a lot better at night.
Boom or Bust: Xavier Su’a-Filo is future Pro Bowl guard and instantly upgrades any line he joins. The Broncos could upgrade at center and right tackle later in the draft but Su’a-Filo is about as sure a thing as you’ll find in this draft. Not only can he be their starting left guard on day one he might be a better RT than what they have right now also.
32. Seattle Seahawks (13-3): Jason Verrett CB TCU
The Seahawks have a need for WR, a RG and they could use some help on the defensive line after the free agent losses of Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Clinton McDonald but they also suffered some notable losses in the secondary. CB’s Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond left and while Byron Maxwell takes over for Browner outside they will miss Thurmond as their nickel corner. Verrett isn’t a big corner like the Seahawks have preferred over the last several years but he would make an excellent inside corner and he has the ability to cover outside. What Verrett lacks in stature he more than makes up for in coverage ability and Seattle built their Super Bowl winning team on their defense. Verrett is great value with the last pick of the first round.
Boom or Bust: Verrett is the most natural cover guy in this draft and no one is going to regret drafting him. Even if he were to struggle against bigger WR’s he will always have a job playing the slot because not everyone can do it and it’s an important position in today’s NFL.
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