The idiocy of the NFL Draft is in full bloom
Apparently having the draft pushed back a few extra weeks has allowed the General Managers and talent evaluators to completely lose their minds even more than normal. Every year NFL people suffer from what I like to refer to as “Analysis Paralysis”, it is the over analysis of every aspect of a prospect and it leads to finding and dissecting every little flaw and finding reasons not to like certain players. The paralyzing fear keeps teams from drafting certain players and it’s completely irrational. A quarterback being a half an inch shorter than the prototype suddenly becomes an overwhelming problem, a wide receiver’s 40 yard time is .02 seconds slower than someone else’s or an offensive tackle’s arms are a quarter of an inch shorter than another guy’s arms so he must not be as good. This is what is happening to Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater right now because his pro day workout didn’t wow scouts like Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel. One of the greatest pro day workouts of a QB in history was turned in by none other than JaMarcus Russell when he was coming out of LSU and the Raiders fell hard and took him #1 overall. That set their franchise back years and they are still trying to dig out of that hole. Pro day workouts, especially for QB’s, are incredibly inaccurate measurements of a QB’s abilities.
The rumors out there right now are that Bridgewater may fall out of the first round into the second round and that absolutely blows my mind. I do think there is a chance that all of the top QB’s; Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater and Derek Carr, fall farther than people think because they don’t seem to be measuring up to the standards of top 5 QB prospects that are franchise defining players. None of these guys are going to step in like Andrew Luck did a few years ago and take the worst team in the league to a playoff spot but if there is one that could do it, it’s Bridgewater. Turning around the Texans is not as hard as it looks simply because of the talent on that roster but Bridgewater is the only one that can step in and play at a high level immediately. Luck carried a mediocre Colts team his rookie year but whoever takes over at QB for Houston will be playing on a much more talented roster. Maybe the Texans will get lucky and they can take Clowney or Khalil Mack #1 and then turn around and grab Bridgewater with the first pick of the second round. If they do, every team in the league will end up looking like idiots.
Johnny Manziel impressed and irritated at his pro day.
Johnny Manziel put on a display of his arm and his playmaking ability at his pro day that had everyone buzzing about his talent on the field. Unfortunately “Johnny Football” also put on a show with his new Nike collection during that same workout and Nike introduced the line for sale the next day. New Vikings coach Mike Zimmer was the only person to come right out and speak about his displeasure with that part of the day but I would guess there are plenty of people that were turned off by Manziel’s off the field antics. Manziel is the single most polarizing prospect in this draft because of his tantalizing talent and obvious ego. Owners and General Managers want to give Manziel a pass because they see the marketing potential but it’s the coaches that are going to bristle at the prima donna act from a rookie that has earned nothing on the field. Coaches like QB’s that lead on the field and in the film room and they don’t like guys that buy into their own hype.
Jadeveon Clowney is a freak but that is hardly news.
Clowney went into his pro day workout with nothing to prove because he put on a show at the combine. He did do some linebacker drills and showed that he can do some things that he was never asked to do at South Carolina and teams took note. I still don’t think he is a great fit for a 3-4 team (especially the Texans) but he may have changed some teams’ minds about that. The Texans defense is coached by Romeo Crennel and while some 3-4 teams use multiple formations (Ray Horton in Tennessee or Mike Nolan in Atlanta for example) Crennel hasn’t always been as flexible. Buffalo OLB Khalil Mack is a better fit but the Texans might not be willing to pass on a talent like Clowney. If the Texans are convinced they can motivate Clowney and find a way to use him they may be willing to wait to grab a QB in round 2.
Pro Football Talk says Tom Savage is invited to the Draft.
According to a report on Pro Football Talk Pitt QB Tom Savage has received an invitation to the NFL draft and it’s not for Saturday’s final four rounds. I’m perplexed by this because Savage is a late round prospect at best but someone must be telling them that he has a chance to go in the late first round. Tom Savage was a big time prospect coming out of high school and was a huge get for Rutgers at the time. Things didn’t work out as planned and Savage transferred to Arizona just in time for the Rich Rodriguez era to begin and Savage was a horrible fit in that offense so off he went to Pitt. He checks all the boxes as far as height, weight and arm strength that NFL teams covet but I’ve seen Savage play over the years and nothing really jumps out about him. Savage has talent and he can throw the ball a mile but he was never a guy that raised the play of the guys around him. While he might make a nice developmental prospect the idea of him going in the late first or early second round seems like drafting a guy way above his value.
The QB carousel spins out of control.
The latest reports from around the league are that Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Savage are late rising prospects and Bridgewater is falling. Bortles stock depends on who you ask and Manziel has a love/hate relationship depending on the team and there is no in between. Aaron Murray put on a nice throwing display at his pro day and that only matters because he tore his ACL 5 months ago and is already able to throw. I still think Bridgewater is the best prospect but I love Murray as a future starter in the NFL. Derek Carr is making a late push up the board, I’d be surprised if he goes in the top 4 but starting with the Raiders at #5 all bets are off. He could go #5 or fall to #55 and I won’t be shocked at all. Yep, the QB rankings are all over the place and if you want to know why here it is; Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Savage, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, Tahj Boyd, Aaron Murray and David Fales. Eleven QB’s that might grade out as 1st-3rd round players. That’s insane.
Quick hits
– Last year I had a few of my favorites in the draft like OLB Jarvis Jones, CB Desmond Trufant and RB Giovani Bernard. Jones struggled to stay healthy and that was the one issue I said could hold him back. Trufant played well he just did it on a terrible Falcons team so no one noticed. Bernard was solid in a situational role but look for the Bengals to use him a lot more this year.
– I was critical of the Sheldon Richardson pick last year by the Jets because I said he didn’t really fit their style, he was the defensive Rookie of the Year, oops. I underestimated Richardson’s versatility and I underestimated Rex Ryan’s defensive prowess. Ryan had the Jets defense playing great luckily as a Patriots fan he is still clueless on offense. I don’t think Michael Vick and Chris Johnson are turning it around for you Rex.
– I usually love writing mock drafts but this year is ludicrous. When you’re a few weeks out from the draft and the team picking first still doesn’t know what they are doing it makes it really difficult. To make matters worse the Texans just scheduled individual meetings with Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater.
– As a Patriots fan I know their flaws better than most teams so I know they desperately need a TE, maybe two. Even the re-signing of DT Vince Wilfork should not preclude them from grabbing DT help early and maybe often. They still need help at safety and Patrick Chung is not the answer. With Revis on board and Logan Ryan playing better at the end of the year I would say CB is alright, it would help if Alfonzo Dennard would stop getting arrested and stay out of jail.
– A few of my favorites in this year’s draft; obviously I’ve already spoken of Bridgewater and Murray at QB. I’m not in love with any RB’s. Brandin Cooks is really growing on me at WR. Jake Matthews is a future Pro Bowler at OT. Two defensive guys coming off injury that I like are Florida DT Dominique Easley and Virginia Tech CB Kyle Fuller. At LB Alabama’s CJ Mosley and Ohio St.’s Ryan Shazier are immediate impact players. Murray and Easley are the only ones in that group that are not going in the first round, if Bridgewater or Cooks fall to round two they are huge steals.
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