2014 NFL Draft Top 5 Offensive Positional Rankings
Quarterback: These rankings are based on the overall consensus of who the top 4 QB’s are (Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel and Carr) put in the order I favor them and then Mettenberger gets the nod from me over AJ McCarron and Jimmy Garoppolo for the fifth spot.
- Teddy Bridgewater Louisville
- Blake Bortles Central Florida
- Johnny Manziel Texas A&M
- Derek Carr Fresno St.
- Zach Mettenberger LSU
Bridgewater is my pick if I’m the Texans picking at #1. He is a guy that hasn’t reached his ceiling yet but he’s good enough right now to step in and lead Houston’s offense from day 1. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren’t getting any younger, the offensive line is solid if not spectacular and the team finally drafted a good complementary WR in DeAndre Hopkins last year; the only thing missing is a solid QB. Bortles certainly looks the part and he checks off all the boxes of a potential franchise QB but he still worries me because I’ve seen too many of these types come up short (Kyle Boller, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert just to name a few). Bortles has loads of potential but so did those guys and they didn’t raise their game or lift the performance of the guys around them. There is a very fine line between Andrew Luck and Kyle Boller and it has very little to do with their physical traits. Johnny Manziel is arguably the most polarizing prospect ever because people either believe he is the second coming of Joe Montana or they think he’s the antichrist. I’m somewhere in the middle but I’m leaning towards Manziel flaming out like the next Ryan Leaf. The fame, the fortune and the celebrity may just be too much for him and there is nothing more destructive to a QB than believing his own hype. The scariest thing about this year’s QB prospects is that Derek Carr may be the safest choice. He doesn’t profile like a perennial Pro Bowler but you know what you are getting with him. He can throw the ball all over the field and he put up huge numbers in Fresno St.’s videogame like offense but no one is certain he’s an NFL starter. Carr will be a better player than Christian Ponder and with the right team around him he can be a playoff QB. As a matter of fact I’m fairly certain if you put him in place of Andy Dalton on the Bengals they might actually be better. I’m not suggesting the Bengals draft him I’m just saying with an offense that has guys like AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Giovani Bernard and Marvin Jones I think Carr could be successful. Zach Mettenberger is an interesting prospect that is recovering from a knee injury and hasn’t been able to show off for scouts. This last season under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron at LSU Mettenberger showed how well he could run a pro-style offense and he profiles like an NFL QB. At 6’5 224 lbs. he is the type of big pocket passer NFL team’s love and under the right coaching staff and with a team that can allow him to recover from his knee injury he could be very good starting QB down the road.
Sleeper: Aaron Murray Georgia
I already said in my scouting combine thoughts that Murray is my second favorite QB after Bridgewater and I stand behind that assessment. The reason I don’t rank him second is because I believe strongly in ranking guys based partly on the order in which they might get drafted. Murray may be my second QB but his draft stock has him in the 3rd– 4th round range and I wholeheartedly believe in never drafting a guy above his value. Draft value isn’t determined by a one scouting perspective it is a collective belief of where a player ranks. The truth is there are only 3 QB’s in this draft that I think will be starting QB’s in the NFL five years from now and they are Bridgewater, Mettenberger and Murray.
Running Back: These rankings are based on my preference because in the NFL there is virtually no consensus about running backs. Every team needs or wants something different and the specialization of the position has made ranking all the backs together almost ludicrous but breaking them down into All-Purpose, Speed, Power and Scat Back just seemed tedious.
- Ka’Deem Carey Arizona
- Tre Mason Auburn
- Jeremy Hill LSU
- Carlos Hyde Ohio St.
- Bishop Sankey Washington
If Ka’Deem Carey can seriously improve his 40 time at his pro day then he will safely be the top RB in this class but for now he is just one of the guys. Carey isn’t big but he has an all-around game that most of the other backs don’t have and he can help someone right away. If a team like the Raiders, who are absent any legitimate NFL running back, were to draft Carey he would start immediately and be pretty productive. Mason was the star of Auburn’s resurgent offense under Gus Malzahn and he has legitimate NFL talent but he didn’t show the pass catching ability that Carey has shown and he isn’t the tough inside runner that Carey has proven to be. Part of Mason’s problem is that he is a bit of an upright style runner and that doesn’t bode well for him given his smaller frame. Jeremy Hill is a powerful downhill runner with an impressive combination of size and speed. At 6’1 233 lbs. he is built like the prototypical NFL RB. He doesn’t possess the pass catching ability of a guy like Carey but his hands are adequate. Carlos Hyde is the quintessential power back and he would much rather run over somebody than run around them. Hyde can’t be taken down by arm tackles and he has deceptive speed. Not a player you are going to throw it to out of the back field but when you need the tough yards he will get them. Bishop Sankey won’t wow you with any one of his skills but he is a fantastic all-around RB. He is equally adept running inside or outside or catching passes and despite his slight build he is a solid blocker in blitz pickup. Sankey bared much of the offensive load at Washington and he never wilted under the pressure.
Sleeper: Charles Sims West Virginia
Sims is sort of the forgotten man at the RB position as he is a fifth year senior that played on a West Virginia team that wasn’t very good. Sims has all the necessary skills to be a good NFL back and his natural pass catching skills, especially in the screen game, could make him a perfect fit in the league. He runs too upright and doesn’t get low enough and he loses leverage battles because of it. There are a lot of starting RB’s that should consider renting a place instead of buying if their team selects Sims in the draft.
Wide Receivers: This is another position that could be further broken down into big physical outside receivers, small quick inside receivers and guys that can do both equally well (the Sammy Watkins division).
- Sammy Watkins Clemson
- Mike Evans Texas A&M
- Marqise Lee USC
- Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
- Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
- Brandin Cooks Oregon St.
- Kelvin Benjamin Florida St.
- Allen Robinson Penn St.
A position that was seriously enhanced by the addition of underclassmen Jordan Matthews is the only senior in my top 8 (yeah I know I cheated but I couldn’t stop at 5). Unlike last year’s top WR choice Tavon Austin Sammy Watkins actually deserves to go in the top 10 picks. The hype that Austin received was largely due to the lack of quality in last year’s WR class but the fact the Watkins is the consensus top WR in this class speaks to the level of his talent. Watkins is not in the mold of Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones he is more like a slightly larger version of Torry Holt. Watkins has a great combination of size, speed and innate WR skill and is a legitimate #1 WR. Mike Evans is in the mold of Calvin Johnson at 6’5 231 lbs. with enough speed to hurt you. He isn’t in Johnson’s class (no one is at the moment) but that is where his ceiling could be. Evans is a long strider with deceptive deep speed and while he may lack the short area burst of a smaller receiver he is very adept at using his body to shield defenders. Marqise Lee isn’t the biggest or the strongest or the fastest WR but he has more natural ability than most of the receivers in this draft. He won’t wow you but he will beat you repeatedly and you won’t know why. Smooth and savvy are words that come to mind when watching Lee play and if he gets back completely healthy he is going to be someone’s #1 WR next season. Odell Beckham Jr. is so physically gifted his mind is still trying to catch up with his body and when it does he is going to dominate his opponents. When I compared him to Steve Smith I wasn’t trying to be hyperbolic. Smith entered the league as a supremely gifted but raw player and molded himself into a star and Beckham has the chance to do the same. Beckham isn’t a tall receiver but Smith proved that you don’t have to be 6’4 to dominate as a WR in the NFL. All Jordan Matthews did in his college career was rewrite the SEC record books for receivers and no one wanted to notice until he went to the combine and ran the 40 in 4.46 seconds. Matthews is 6’3 212 lbs. and he is an excellent route runner and by all accounts a very intelligent player. Matthews may have already reached his ceiling as a player but I’m not sure he needs to get much better to be a great pro. I couldn’t stop at the top 5 because along with the first five Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson could make it 8 WR in the first round. Yes, in my combine post I said seven but that’s only because I forgot to include Robinson and he certainly has a shot at round 1 also. Cooks is the quick shifty guy, Benjamin is the nearly tight end sized WR and Robinson falls somewhere in between. Cooks was highly productive at Oregon St, Benjamin makes teams salivate over his ridiculous size and Robinson makes everyone wonder what they could do with all that raw ability.
Sleeper: Jared Abbrederis Wisconsin
I really hate to give this spot to a Badger but Abbrederis is sneaky good. Most evaluations have him going somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round and that’s a steal. At 6’1 195 lbs. he ran a 4.5 40 which surprised a lot of people because he is thought of as a possession receiver and not really the big play guy. He understands his position and he knows how to use his routes to set up a defensive back and beat him. Abbrederis is bigger than guys like Wes Welker, Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman but he’s not as big as guys like Jordy Nelson or Eric Decker (yes I’m well aware that I just named virtually every white WR in the NFL in that sentence). The truth is Abbrederis’ game is also somewhere in between those two sets of players. His most impressive film is against Ohio St. where he destroyed Bradley Roby over and over again. There are a lot of good WR’s ranked ahead of him on most boards but he’ll undoubtedly outplay and outlast many of them in the NFL.
Tight End: The top five TE’s in this draft are pretty obvious and there isn’t much debate given that there is a serious drop off after number five.
- Eric Ebron North Carolina
- Jace Amaro Texas Tech
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins Washington
- CJ Fiedorowicz Iowa
- Troy Niklas Notre Dame
After the college season when Ebron and Amaro declared for the draft it looked like they were going to have a fight to the death to see which one went first, then the combine came and Ebron removed all doubt. Ebron isn’t the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski but he compares favorably to Vernon Davis on the field. He isn’t the freakish athlete that Davis is but Davis has never been the dominant TE his athleticism suggests he can be. Ebron is a top 15 selection and will make a nice weapon in someone’s passing attack. Amaro is a fantastic pass catcher and he is what they call a “move” TE. He’s bigger than say Aaron Hernandez and less homicidal but what knocked him down from Ebron is that Amaro can’t block. In his defense Texas Tech’s offense never asked Amaro to even pretend to block so it’s possible he can learn but from what teams saw at the combine he has a long ways to go in that part of his game. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the top TE prospect going into the college football season and he is a great physical specimen with all the on-the-field talents you could ask for but he has red flags flying everywhere. He has a DUI arrest from last year and he recently has foot surgery so teams are going to be cautious with him. His production fell off last season compared to the season before but that was partially because he was asked to block more and Washington’s offense wasn’t as dependent on him. Seferian-Jenkins has a more well-rounded game than the top two players but he doesn’t look like the dynamic pass catcher they are and that may hurt him. Depending on the team drafting it is completely possible he passes Amaro and gets drafted before him. CJ Fiedorowicz is the best blocker among the top five TE’s and while his numbers aren’t eye catching he is a more than capable receiver. He is a big target with huge hands and a great understanding of how to use his body to shield the defender. He was underutilized in Iowa’s offense and he might blossom on the right team with the right QB and offense that would take advantage of his skills. Troy Niklas is right there with Fiedorowicz and is ahead of him at #4 in some rankings. I rank Niklas below Fiedorowicz because he is still a bit raw. He has the size and skill but is still lacking some of the refinement you see in the top four guys.
Sleeper: Umm…yeah…there isn’t one. After the top 5 guys it is truly an underwhelming bunch. Tennessee St. TE AC Leonard ran a nice 4.5 40 at the combine to get a little notice but at 6’2 252 lbs. that isn’t going to set the scouting world on fire, it basically makes him a really heavy WR.
Offensive Tackle: This position was weakened when four highly rated underclassmen stayed in school; Cameron Erving-Florida St, Brandon Scherff-Iowa, La’el Collins-LSU and Cedric Ogbuehi-Texas A&M. That left what looked like five top guys until Cyrus Kouandjio’s rough combine experience.
- Jake Matthews Texas A&M
- Greg Robinson Auburn
- Taylor Lewan Michigan
- Zack Martin Notre Dame
- *TBD* Cyrus Kouandjio Alabama
Greg Robinson put on a show at the combine and he did so well he didn’t even work out at Auburn’s pro day (leaving on a high note, George Costanza would be proud). On many prospect rankings Robinson has passed Matthews and he very well may be drafted first but Matthews is still my choice for the top spot. Matthews is a plug and play player; draft him, start him and don’t worry about the position for the next decade. He can play left or right tackle equally well and unlike last year’s top tackles (Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Lane Johnson) Matthews looks like a future perennial Pro Bowler to me. Robinson has a very high ceiling and you can’t teach a man that big to be that athletic but he is far from a finished product. When it comes to a blind side protector for your franchise QB I will take the sure thing every time. Taylor Lewan had started to drop like a rock because of his less than impressive senior season and the thought that he just isn’t athletic enough to play LT in the NFL. His combine performance reversed that but the truth is he is best suited to RT and he could excel there. He will struggle against the elite outside edge rushers and that would be far more problematic at LT than RT. Zack Martin is a tad short at 6’4 for your typical NFL tackle but the kid is a tactician and he understands leverage and rarely gets overwhelmed. Most teams initially thought Martin would be an NFL guard and he may still turn out to be best suited there but his Senior Bowl week and his work outs have guaranteed he’ll get a shot to play OT to start with. Kouandjio’s medical exam at the combine showed an arthritic knee condition that has thrown his draft stock into a free fall. I put him fifth because no one has really stepped up to take the fifth spot away from him. Antonio Richardson (Tennessee) looks the part until you watch him play and then you leave feeling unsatisfied. Morgan Moses (Virginia) and Jack Mewhort (Ohio St) are a couple of grizzled veterans who can certainly play but aren’t overwhelming prospects. If Kouandjio can get one team to look past the medical reports he still has the more upside than all of the guys below him.
Sleeper: James Hurst North Carolina
Hurst is regarded as a late round pick and some of that has to do with the fact that he broke his fibula in the last game of the season and may not get to fully work out for teams before the draft. He seems to be recovering and there is talk that he will work out at North Carolina’s pro day but Hurst wasn’t going to blow anyone away even if he was 100%. He doesn’t make scouts say “wow” but this is a lunch pail type of player that every team needs. Hurst started 49 games at LT over the past four years taking over the job as a freshman. That’s impressive for anyone and he has the ability to play at the NFL level and he’s the type of guy you cheer for.
Offensive Guard/Center: I’m copping out on listing five of each of these guys because I haven’t really see much beyond the top guys at this position and what I have seen of others isn’t worth talking about.
Guards:
- Xavier Su’a-Filo UCLA
- David Yankey Stanford
- Gabe Jackson Mississippi St.
Centers:
- Travis Swanson Arkansas
- Weston Richburg Colorado St.
- Marcus Martin USC
Su’a-Filo is an athletic guy that can move but is stout at the point of attack and most importantly he can fit into any blocking scheme and dominate. Yankey will excel at OG and his experience playing in Stanford’s pro-style offense will make his transition pretty easy. He may also get a look by some teams at OT because of his 6’6 frame and athleticism. Gabe Jackson is a mauler at 336 lbs. and is great at the point of attack. He struggles a bit moving down field and blocking at the second level but he dominates inside. Swanson is a taller center who moves with a fluidity you don’t see very often on the offensive line. He’s physically mature and has a lot of experience. Weston Richburg is an undersized center at less than 300 lbs. but he doesn’t lack for strength on the field. He’s very experienced after starting all 49 games of his career. Martin may be the most physically gifted of the centers but he only started for a year and if I’m drafting a center I want a guy that has been through the fire so to speak.
Sleeper: Cyril Richardson Baylor
It’s tough to call a guy that was the top ranked OG going into the season a sleeper but Richardson’s workouts haven’t gone well and he’s tumbling down the board at the moment. Richardson is a massive human being at 6’5 329 lbs. but his numbers make him seem slow and not very athletic so teams are devaluing him. This happened last year to a guy named Larry Warford and he fell to the third round where the Detroit Lions gladly scooped him up. Warford had a wonderful year and the team that grabs Richardson will be just as delighted this time next year. Richardson is mauler and nothing he does is pretty but it is highly effective and he will be a dominant guard for someone.
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