2014 NFL Mock Draft

This mock draft has taken a while for me to write because the Houston Texans hold the first pick and it isn’t very clear where they are headed with that pick.  There are four legitimate possibilities and they seem to refuse to tip their hand.  Jadeveon Clowney, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater are likely all still under consideration and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they trade the first pick.  Free agency has certainly cleared up many possibilities throughout the first round as teams have filled areas of need with their new found cap space.  A lot of major free agents have changed teams and changed projected picks in the draft.  This mock draft is based on a few factors; what I think a team should do, what I think a team will do and what a team is projected to do.  All of those factors come into play but to varying degrees with each pick.  This mock draft is for entertainment purposes only and I will not be held to it in any way…that means I already know it’s probably wrong.  Enjoy.

1.  Houston Texans (2-14):  Teddy Bridgewater   QB   Louisville

I have no earthly idea what the Texans plan to do if they keep this pick so I’m giving them the guy I think they should pick.  The over analysis of Bridgewater is astounding and I can’t figure out why this isn’t a no-brainer for them.  This team is built to compete right now all they need is a competent QB.  Bridgewater is the one QB that can step in and play immediately and make a difference.  Bortles and Manziel are obviously talented prospects but both will need an adjustment period and a team that has Arian Foster and Andre Johnson as it too biggest weapons doesn’t have a lot of time to waste.  Clowney is the top prospect on almost everyone’s board but I just see him as a bad fit in the Texans defense under Romeo Crennel.  They have lost Antonio Smith and Earl Mitchell in free agency so it wouldn’t be a shock if they just take Clowney but they would have to make some adjustments to take advantage of his skills.  There has been some talk of the Texans looking at OLB Khalil Mack as the top pick and he certainly fits their scheme but with Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus at OLB they have much bigger holes to fill.

Really bad idea:  Johnny Manziel.  Out of all five possible #1 picks (Clowney, Bridgewater, Bortles, Mack and Manziel) Johnny Football is the risk the Texans can’t take.  Manziel is a boom-or-bust pick and the Texans are built to win quickly and a bust the size of Manziel would set the franchise back years.

2.  St. Louis Rams (from Washington 3-13):  Greg Robinson   LT   Auburn

The Rams just re-signed Roger Saffold after his Raiders deal was voided over a medical issue.  He is best suited to play inside at guard and Jake Long is recovering from a knee injury and may not be ready at the beginning of the season which means the Rams still need help at OT.  Jake Matthews would be my preference here but the Rams seem like they will take a chance on the potential of Robinson.  Robinson is a fantastic prospect but he is still maturing and Matthews is a plug-and-play player at either LT or RT.  Robinson can play and he will certainly be an upgrade at OT for the Rams but he will have some growing pains and for a team that is looking to make a move in the toughest division in football those growing pains could be costly.  The Rams are in the perfect position to trade out of this spot and GM Les Snead has done that a lot the last few years.  This pick is the last payment from the Redskins for the Robert Griffin deal a couple of years ago and if Snead can trade down, still get a starting OT and pick up even more help that is definitely the way to go.  They don’t need Clowney because of the presence of Robert Quinn and Chris Long but that doesn’t mean he is completely out of the question.

Bad idea:  Jadeveon Clowney.  The Rams could go the route of the New York Giants and grab Clowney and team him with Quinn and Long and make an amazing pass rush on their defense but they have too many other pressing needs.  If they decide they don’t want an OT then WR Sammy Watkins would be the best possible alternative.

3.  Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12):  Jadeveon Clowney   DE   South Carolina

The signings of DE Chris Clemons, DE Red Bryant and DT Ziggy Hood would seem to mean that the Jaguars don’t need Clowney but head coach Gus Bradley knows the value of a good defensive line.  Clemons is 33 years old and Bryant isn’t really a pass rusher he is more of a base end and he can slide inside to DT when needed.  The Jaguars re-signing of QB Chad Henne to a two year deal leads me to believe that they are planning on taking a QB later and giving that QB time to develop.  They could grab Bortles or Manziel here and do that but taking a QB third overall puts a lot of pressure on the team to play them right away and just because they have Henne doesn’t mean they can’t let a rookie compete.  Coach Bradley may be planning to do what the Seahawks did when they drafted Russell Wilson and allowed him to compete but they didn’t necessarily expect him to win the job.  Wilson won because he was the best choice not because he was drafted early and the Seahawks are better because of that fact.

Bad idea:  Reaching for a QB like they have done in the past.  This team is at least a few years from competing and they need talent all over the field so passing on Clowney would be a mistake.

4.  Cleveland Browns (4-12):  Blake Bortles   QB   Central Florida

I went back and forth between Bortles and Manziel and I came to the conclusion that new GM Ray Farmer is looking at the long haul and not the flash in the pan.  I said before that I wouldn’t blame the Browns for rolling the dice and reaching for greatness but Farmer doesn’t seem likely to take a chance with his first pick as GM.  Bortles has all the talent you look for in a franchise QB and the Browns have been desperate for one since Bernie Kosar, that’s a long time.  I’m not sure if the Browns ownership will have the patience to wait (they certainly haven’t shown it so far) but if they give Bortles a chance and give him some weapons they may finally find their solution at QB.

Bad idea:  Firing your coach year after year is usually a bad idea but the Browns seem to do it anyway.  Also drafting a QB and not giving him any skill position talent around him is a bad idea.  The Browns have WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron and they just signed free agent RB Ben Tate and that’s a pretty good start but they will need more help for whoever is playing QB.

5.  Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Johnny Manziel   QB   Texas A&M

The latest rumors are that the Raiders are waiting for Matt Schaub and Mark Sanchez to be cut by their respective teams and then they will look at them along with Josh Freeman and Michael Vick at QB.  Oh wait I’m supposed to cover the bad idea a little later.  Manziel is a playmaker and the Raiders don’t have many (any?) of those on their roster.  They tried out Terrell Pryor and Matt McGloin this last season and that helped their offense be quite abysmal.  The Raiders probably need to take a shot just as much as the Browns do but I think they are far more likely to do so.  Manziel will sell jerseys and he may even turn out to be a good QB but the Raiders are a long ways from being good and this is the kind of shot that could turn around a franchise…or it sets them back about five years, it’s a pick’em.

Bad ideas:  Schaub, Sanchez, Freeman or Vick.  Yep, four bad ideas.

6.  Atlanta Falcons:  Khalil Mack   OLB   Buffalo

The Falcons signed NT Paul Soliai and DE Tyson Jackson and signaled their intention to move to a 3-4 defense which means Mack has to be their preferred pick.  They don’t have a pass rushing OLB on the roster and Mack is the best one in the draft.  He is considered by many to be the best prospect in the draft and the one sure thing at the top of the draft.  Mack’s skill set is exactly what the Falcons need to turn around their defense and while Jake Matthews would fill a huge need at LT Mack is the pick.  The Falcons went into last season as a favorite in the NFC and completely fell apart but they are poised for a quick turnaround if they can fix a few key areas (o-line and d-line) and get healthy.

Bad idea: Letting Mack get away.  The Falcons are trying to pull off a switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and the Cowboys showed how difficult a change in scheme can be if you don’t have the proper personnel.  Mack would fill one of the key components to the new defense and be an immediate difference maker.

7.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12):  Sammy Watkins   WR   Clemson

The Bucs went into the off season with a number of needs including DE, OL, TE, CB and QB and they went out and signed DE Michael Johnson, LT Anthony Collins, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, TE Brandon Myers, CB Alterraun Verner, and QB Josh McCown.  That means they can take the best player available and it just so happens to be the best WR in the draft Sammy Watkins.  Watkins is a star in the making and teaming him with Vincent Jackson at WR and adding a TE like Myers should give McCown (or Mike Glennon) some nice weapons in the passing game and open things up for RB Doug Martin.  Lovie Smith has a chance to pull a Chiefs like turnaround with Buccaneers because they have plenty of talent on hand and now they have a legitimate coaching staff in the building.

Bad idea:  Discounting the 10 years of evidence that Josh McCown isn’t anything more than an NFL back-up QB and handing him the starting job because he had about 5 good games last year.  At the very least this should be a competition with Glennon.  Mike Glennon wasn’t bad last year and putting what could be a big bounce back season in McCown’s hands could be costly.  Don’t try to compare McCown to Alex Smith either because Smith played well for the 49ers for a few years before he was shipped to Kansas City.

8.  Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1):  Anthony Barr   OLB   UCLA

The Vikings obviously need a QB for the future but for now they are content with Matt Cassel who did a pretty solid job last year despite what some people think.  Derek Carr is the next QB after Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel but taking him at #8 would be just as bad as when they drafted Christian Ponder way too early.  Barr is an exceptional athlete that is just scratching the surface of what he can do on defense after playing RB at UCLA until two years ago.  The Vikings need a playmaker on defense after the loss of Jared Allen and while Barr isn’t a DE or a pure LB new head coach Mike Zimmer is a fantastic defensive mind and he will find ways to let Barr shine.  It looked like the Vikings might be going for a CB here but they signed Captain Munnerlyn and Derek Cox so the need there isn’t as great.  A pure DE would be nice here but there just isn’t the value at the position to take at #8.

Bad idea:  Kony Ealy.  Ealy is a nice defensive end but he would be a stretch almost as much as Carr.

9.  Buffalo (6-10):  Jake Matthews   OT   Texas A&M

The Bills invested a first round pick in QB EJ Manuel last year and now they need to get him the guy that can keep him on the field.  Cordy Glenn has managed to be a nice LT since the Bills drafted him and they may leave him there but drafting Matthews and moving Glenn to RT would seriously upgrade two positions.  Matthews could play RT and Glenn could remain on the left side but either way Matthews presents too much value to pass on here.  WR Mike Evans and TE Eric Ebron would both be acceptable choices here because Manuel could use some more weapons but the Bills would be better served by better protection up front.

Bad idea:  Overreacting to the loss of Jairus Byrd and grabbing a safety like Haha Clinton-Dix would be a stretch at this point.

10.  Detroit Lions (7-9):  Justin Gilbert   CB   Oklahoma St. 

The Lions had three major holes on their roster entering the off season at WR, CB and RT.  Center Dominic Raiola is getting older but he can still do the job.  The Lions have made one major move and it was a great one, they signed Seahawks free agent WR Golden Tate.  Tate will be the first true threat to line-up opposite Calvin Johnson that opponents have to take seriously.  This signing also means the Lions don’t have to draft a WR at #10 and they can concentrate on the other big need they have been ignoring for years, cornerback.  Justin Gilbert and Darqueze Dennard are #1 and #1a depending on who you ask and I think the Lions will go with Gilbert.  Gilbert is the smooth athletic type that can come in and match up with just about anyone from day one.  He will take his lumps in a division that features Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Randal Cobb, Greg Jennings and Corderrelle Patterson but he will compete.

Bad idea:  Reaching for OT Taylor Lewan.  Since his workout at the combine Lewan has been moving back up the draft boards and given the drop off after him at OT his value may sneak him into the top 10 but it shouldn’t.  The Lions could take him and he would make a nice RT for them but there is better value at CB with either Gilbert or Dennard.

11.  Tennessee (7-9):  Darqueze Dennard   CB   Michigan St.

The Titans appear to be switching to a 3-4 defense under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton and they would be wise to get an OLB for their new scheme but with Mack and Barr off the board the only legitimate prospect left would be Dee Ford and this would be a reach.  They just lost CB Alterraun Verner in free agency and Darqueze Dennard would be a nice addition and he is certainly worth this pick.  Dennard is an in-your-face physical corner that likes to jam WR’s at the line of scrimmage and his aggressiveness would seem to fit Horton’s scheme.  The Titans signing of RT Michael Oher was a nice addition that allows them to bypass Taylor Lewan and focus on other areas of need.  Another possibility here is WR Mike Evans as the Titans have let Kenny Britt go and could use a complement to Kendall Wright.

Bad idea:  Reaching for Ford or Lewan when there is a highly ranked CB on the board.

12.  New York Giants (7-9):  Taylor Lewan   OT   Michigan

Originally I had the Giants taking LB CJ Mosley but after resigning Jon Beason and signing Jameel McClain from the Ravens it looks like the Giants are going to stick to their plan of playing terrible LB’s and never addressing the position in the draft.  The only thing worse than their LB corps last season was their atrocious offensive line and while they have signed a couple of interior linemen they still need help at OT.  Last year’s first round pick Justin Pugh played better at RT at the end of the year but the jury is still out on whether he should stick there.  Lewan would give the Giants some flexibility and allow them to play the best players on the line.  Lewan could be the LT or the RT and he might allow them to move Pugh inside and upgrade several positions.  I think Eli Manning would like this pick very much.

Bad idea:  Not drafting a LB in the first round since the Reagan Administration.

13.  St. Louis Rams (7-9):  Mike Evans   WR   Texas A&M

The Rams got their OT with the 2^nd pick overall that they had from the RGIII trade with Washington and now they have to make a choice between taking a potential #1 WR or getting the safety they need.  Evans is a legitimate #1 WR prospect and would make a very good outside receiver that would open things up for last year’s 1^st round WR pick Tavon Austin.  Evans formed a spectacular duo at Texas A&M with Johnny Manziel and his size makes him a match-up nightmare even in the NFL.  If the Rams intend to give Sam Bradford one last shot at proving he’s a franchise QB it would behoove them to provide him with some serious help at WR.  Austin didn’t set the world on fire during his rookie season but he was playing mostly with back-up QB’s and the other WR’s didn’t scare defenses at all.  Passing on a safety like Haha Clinton-Dix will be tough but the Rams need offensive weapons.

Bad idea:  Expecting Sam Bradford to show he’s a franchise QB with Tavon Austin as his top WR.  Austin is a very talented guy but he does his best work out of the slot and someone has to take the top off of the defense for him to be effective.  Evans brings serious deep threat ability to the offense.

14.  Chicago Bears (8-8):  CJ Mosley   LB   Alabama

The Bears defense sucked at all levels last year and they could use help everywhere.  They have signed DE’s Lamarr Houston and Willie Young and they are bringing in safety help in the form of MD Jennings and Ryan Mundy.  The two defensive linemen are upgrades but the safeties are just decent so it doesn’t preclude them from looking at Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor but it makes safety less of a priority.  CJ Mosley was the heart and soul of Alabama’s defense and he could slot into the storied middle linebacker position for the Bears very easily.  He could play outside if last year’s rookie Jon Bostic makes incredible progress but Mosley seems like a better bet to fill the legacy of guys like Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary and Brian Urlacher.  Mosley is smart, athletic and a true leader and those are things the Bears defense could really use.

Bad idea:  As long as the Bears go defense I don’t think they can go wrong.  Their best defensive players are getting older (Lance Briggs and recently re-signed Charles Tillman) and they have holes all over.  After rebuilding their o-line last year and having Alshon Jeffery step up their offense should be good fixing the defense is the priority.

15.  Pittsburgh (8-8):  Hasean “Haha” Clinton-Dix   S   Alabama

The Steelers defense has been getting a makeover the past couple of years as we’ve seen NT Casey Hampton, LB’s James Harrison, Larry Foote and Lamarr Woodley and S Ryan Clark all move on.  The Steelers signed Panthers free agent Mike Mitchell to replace Clark but much to the dismay of Steelers coaches and fans everywhere Troy Polamalu can’t play forever.  Clinton-Dix is a different kind of safety and he wouldn’t be the intimidator at the line like Polamalu is but he brings good size and range and good cover skills and with the way the league is going that is the future of the safety position.  Polamalu isn’t leaving just yet but having Clinton-Dix around to take some of the coverage pressure off of him might make him a more effective player at this stage in his career.

Bad idea:  Much to the chagrin of everyone in the Steelers organization their recent draft picks at the offensive tackle position haven’t been great but reaching for the next best OT Zack Martin would be a mistake.  There are a number of players besides Clinton-Dix that would be more appropriate if they don’t feel the need to take a safety like WR Marqise Lee, NT Louis Nix or CB Jason Verrett.

16.  Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Aaron Donald   DT   Pittsburgh

The Cowboys are looking to replace virtually their entire defensive line as DeMarcus Ware was cut, Jason Hatcher left as a free agent and Anthony Spencer is not expected back.  They transitioned last year to a 4-3 Tampa-2 style defense but it went poorly because they lacked the correct personnel.  They have a chance to correct that this year and it starts with the human bowling ball Aaron Donald.  He is too short and undersized according to many but all I see is the Cowboys own version of Warren Sapp when he was destroying offenses in Tampa Bay.  Donald isn’t as big as Sapp but he is the same type of penetrating disruptive force in the middle that makes the Tampa-2 defense work.  Donald should go higher but there isn’t an ideal place for him given his size and the Cowboys would be a perfect fit.

Bad idea:  If Donald is still on the board it would be indefensible for the Cowboys to pass on him.  If he’s not on the board they still need defensive line help so Tim Jernigan or Louis Nix are possible here.  Keep an eye on S Calvin Pryor though because the Cowboys have needed a good safety since Darren Woodson retired, I think that was about a decade ago.

17.  Baltimore (8-8):  Zack Martin   OT   Notre Dame

The one team that changed its draft priorities with a free agent signing the most is the Baltimore Ravens with free agent Steve Smith.  Everyone had the Ravens taking a WR in the first round and rightfully so given they had not adequately replaced Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith needed someone to take the pressure off of him.  The recently released Panther legend quickly signed with Baltimore and even though he is 35 he still has plenty to contribute.  The Ravens would be wise to draft a WR in this draft but the Smith signing and the depth of the position mean the Ravens can focus on their other pressing offensive issue, right tackle.  Martin is the fourth ranked tackle and while some think he may have to move to guard he showed well at the Senior Bowl and his workouts have been good.  Martin started a lot of games a LT at Notre Dame and playing the right side will be a transition but the Ravens have a pretty solid offensive line when healthy and lining up next to Pro Bowl RG Marshall Yanda will help make the transition easier.

Bad idea:  GM Ozzie Newsome rarely has a bad idea during the draft and it’s one of the reasons the Ravens have rarely been bad during their existence.  Not replacing Boldin last year was certainly an oversight but Steve Smith is a great pick-up and stabilizing the offensive line in front of their $100 million QB would be a wise choice.

18.  New York Jets (8-8):  Eric Ebron   TE   North Carolina

The Jets were another team that looked destined to take a WR with their first round pick right up until they signed free agent WR Eric Decker.  It’s not clear that Decker is a #1 WR but he is an upgrade and while the Jets WR corps still could use some help Decker takes the pressure off and allows the Jets to grab the best TE in this draft.  Ebron has top 10 pick potential and if he’s available at #18 for the Jets he would be hard to pass up.  Ebron would give the team a huge upgrade at the position and give QB Geno Smith and very nice security blanket and weapon in the middle of the field.  I’ve had Marqise Lee set for this spot for a while but Ebron is too much value here and the depth at WR means the Jets can still get a good one in round two.

Bad idea:  Not fixing the offense would be a bad idea.  They need a TE, another WR and offensive line help if they want to give Geno Smith a chance to succeed.  Signing Michael Vick would also be a bad idea because it would muddy the waters around Smith, shake his confidence and it’s not a long term solution.

19.  Miami Dolphins (8-8):  Xavier Sua-Filo   OL   UCLA

The Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito debacle has been talked about ad nauseam and with the trade of Martin to San Francisco, the release of Incognito and the signing of LT Branden Albert it is time for the Dolphins to move on.  The Albert signing takes care of the immediate need at LT but this line still needs help inside and possibly at RT.  This makes Sua-Filo the perfect choice because while he could be a Pro Bowl player inside at guard he could also be a future RT if need be.  Sua-Filo is a beast and while he doesn’t get a lot of publicity (offensive guards rarely do) I’m certain the Dolphins would be perfectly happy if no one ever talks about their offensive line ever again.

Bad idea:  Trying to build their team through free agency hasn’t turned out well for the Dolphins as they are stuck in no man’s land between making the playoffs and being bad enough to get a top draft pick.  It finally cost GM Jeff Ireland his job and if they don’t start getting things turned around coach Joe Philbin will be following him out the door soon.  Good teams build through the draft.

20.  Arizona Cardinals (10-6):  Dee Ford   OLB   Auburn

The Cardinals came into the off season with a gigantic hole at LT and they haven’t been adequate there in a long time.  They filled that hole with a very good free agent Jared Veldheer and while they still could use help on the offensive line it isn’t where the value is at this point in the draft.  John Abraham found the fountain of youth last season in Arizona but he’s 36 and time is going to run out sooner rather than later and the Cardinals need to find a pass rusher.  Dee Ford was a DE at Auburn and he was a terror off the edge but he is woefully undersized to play DE in the NFL and he embraced the fact that he would have to move to OLB.  His natural pass rush skills are obvious and the Cardinals defense would be a perfect place for him to ply his trade.

Bad idea:  Not getting a young pass rusher.  Perhaps John Abraham can squeeze another year out of his body but the Cardinals will need a replacement and passing on Ford if he’s available would be the wrong move.

21.  Green Bay Packers (8-7-1):  Calvin Pryor   S   Louisville

The Packers have a number of places they could go but the value at center, where they just lost Evan Deitrich-Smith, and at TE, where Jermichael Finley is unlikely to return, isn’t as great as it is at safety.  Pryor is clearly the second best safety in the draft after Clinton-Dix and is well ahead of #3 and the Packers could use a good deep middle guy on the back of their defense.  The Packers do have other needs on defense but they can afford to go with the best available player and that is easily Pryor at this point.  Pryor can both cover the deep middle and come up and support the run and the Packers could use both of those assets in their secondary.  The re-signing of DL BJ Raji and the signing of DE Julius Peppers makes the defensive line less of a priority, another team that has helped define their draft needs through free agency.

Bad idea:  Reaching for a center here like Travis Swanson from Arkansas would be placing need far above value and that just isn’t GM Ted Thompson’s way.

22.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6):  Louis Nix   NT  Notre Dame

The Eagles defense was terrible last season especially in the secondary and while most mock drafts to this point have had them taking a corner or safety once again free agency has changed the outlook.  S Malcolm Jenkins and CB Nolan Carroll have been signed to bolster the secondary leaving the Eagles to address deficiencies elsewhere on defense.  The team changed last year into a 3-4 alignment but they never really had a legitimate NT to line up over center and set the tone of their defense.  Louis Nix is a versatile interior defensive lineman but his best work is done playing over the center and even though he dealt with injuries last season at Notre Dame he is an excellent prospect.  Nix would change a weakness on the Eagles line into a strength pretty quickly and his presence would especially help the inside linebackers by keeping the offensive linemen off of them.

Bad idea:  Drafting anything other than defense would be a mistake.  The Eagles offense is a strength and they could justify drafting at virtually any position on defense.

23.  Kansas City Chiefs (11-5):  Marqise Lee   WR   USC

I tried for an hour to find a way to give the Chiefs an offensive lineman after they lost three starters in the first few days of free agency and Andy Reid almost always goes for linemen (either offensive or defensive) in the first round.  The problem is that no linemen available come anywhere close to the value of Lee who has #1 WR potential.  Dwayne Bowe has been good but his relationship with Reid and the organization has been strained in the past and even if he is completely happy the Chiefs still need another weapon.  They also lost RB/WR Dexter McCluster to the Titans and Reid must see that his offense needs weapons.  Lee is only available here because teams like the Ravens and Jets were able to address their WR needs in free agency but his loss is the Chiefs gain.  Lee fought through injuries last year but he can be a dynamic playmaker and he is such a good route runner he will be ready to contribute on day one.

Bad idea:  Reid has a penchant for drafting linemen in round one and his team has some holes to fill there but passing on talent like Lee to draft someone like Cyrus Kouandjio or David Yankey would be regrettable.

24.  Cincinnati Bengals (11-5):  Ryan Shazier   LB   Ohio St.

The Bengals just released starting LB James Harrison and it was mostly because he had lost his range and couldn’t cover anyone anymore.  That won’t be a problem with Shazier as his athleticism is his greatest asset.  Speed, range and coverage are Shazier’s game and he should fit nicely alongside Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict in the Bengals LB corps.  He is one of the fastest linebackers in the draft in many years and while he is a little light that shouldn’t be a problem playing beside Maualuga and behind DT’s Geno Atkins and Domata Peko.

Bad idea:  The Bengals have needs at DE, LB, CB and S which means as long as they go defense they should be alright.  They are content to give Andy Dalton more time so the only way they go wrong here is if they draft an offensive player when there is so much value at defense.  DE Kony Ealy would also be a solid choice here as a replacement for the departed Michael Johnson.

25.  San Diego Chargers (9-7):  Jason Verrett   CB   TCU

The Chargers have plenty of holes to fill including NT, OLB, S and even WR but it was their secondary that was far below average last season and they need talent at CB to help improve it.  Verrett isn’t a big corner like most teams are looking for nowadays but he is tough and plays more physically than you would think.  He can cover and he’s tough and those are two things the Chargers secondary could use.  Even if the Chargers are comfortable with the veteran starters they have Verrett could come in as the slot corner as a rookie and eventually take over outside.

Bad idea:  QB, RT and ILB are about the only places the Chargers don’t need to address so everything else is still on the table, tough to go wrong when you need talent and depth throughout the roster.

26.  Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis 11-5):  Odell Beckham Jr.   WR   LSU

This is the first round pick the Browns got from the Colts for trading them RB Trent Richardson and it’s hard to imagine the Browns won’t do better than Richardson with this pick.  They just picked up RB Ben Tate in free agency to solve their RB problem and that’s a good thing because it would have been tragic if they had possibly wasted this pick on a tailback.  Instead they can get new QB Blake Bortles another weapon to pair with WR Josh Gordon and Odell Beckham would make a great complement.  Beckham can line-up out wide or he can play in the slot and he would give the new Browns offense (when is it not new?) some nice versatility.

Bad idea:  I never believed that the new GM Ray Farmer would take a RB here but given how bad they were in the backfield last season it was a possibility.  When RB Ka’Deem Carey ran a slower than expected 40 at the combine it really seemed to end the possibility that a RB would go in the first round.  With the Tate signing grabbing another WR seems like the best move.

27.  New Orleans Saints (11-5):  Kyle Fuller   CB   Virginia Tech

The Saints created a lot of holes in their defense with their roster purge of a number of veterans but they have in-house candidate to fill some of those spots.  They also make arguably the most surprising splash in free agency by bringing in S Jairus Byrd after coming out of nowhere to sign him.  The Saints have a set of starting CB’s in Keenan Lewis and Patrick Robinson but as anyone will tell you two is not enough in the current NFL.  Kyle Fuller had a better junior season at Virginia Tech two years ago compared to his injury filled senior season but that talented player from two years ago is still in there somewhere.  Fuller has NFL starting ability and this may be the best scenario for him, come in and not be expected to be the top CB but get some playing time and then take over later.

Bad idea:  The Saints need an OLB for their 3-4 defense but there isn’t a lot of value here at that position.  They could try to make a move and get up to get Dee Ford which wouldn’t be a bad idea but the only other pass rusher at this point with value is Kony Ealy and he is more of a 4-3 end.

28.  Carolina Panthers (12-4):  Cyrus Kouandjio   LT   Alabama

The retirement of LT Jordan Gross and the release of WR Steve Smith have created two huge craters in the Panthers offense and they have to address one of them here.  Cyrus Kouandjio has some medical issues with his knee come up at the combine and his performance there didn’t help him either.  It has been reported that Kouandjio has been given a clean bill of health by the renowned Dr. James Andrews and that should put him back on the first round radar of many teams.  The Panthers can’t afford not to take a chance because they needed a RT before Gross retired and now that has to take a back seat to finding a blindside protector for franchise QB Cam Newton.  Kouandjio has talent but he will have some growing pains and Newton will have to use his mobility to help out his new LT but the drop off after Kouandjio is pretty big so taking the chance here is worth it.

Bad idea:  As bad as the Panthers look at WR after Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn and Dominik Hixon all moved on in free agency there are still free agent WR worth signing and this draft is very deep there too.  The LT free agency well is pretty dried up and there is no sure-fire LT on the draft board after Kouandjio.

29.  New England Patriots (12-4):  RaShede Hageman   DT   Minnesota

Vince Wilfork is coming off an Achilles injury and Isaac Sopoaga has been cut and the rest of the DT rotation is less than stellar.  With re-signing of WR Julian Edelman and the signing of WR Brandon LaFell the DT position has priority.  Hageman is a mountain of a man at 6’6 310 lbs. and can start immediately which is what the Patriots need.  Hageman has great versatility which is something Bill Belichick will love because he likes to play multiple defensive fronts.  There are other solid DT choices still on the board like Tim Jernigan and Dominique Easley but Hageman looks like the best fit for what the Patriots like to do.

Bad idea:  The Patriots have a pretty obvious need and it’s a position that offers very good value at this point in the draft.  Hageman, Tim Jernigan and Dominique Easley would all be good choices.  Drafting TE Jace Amaro would make sense but the Patriots could get similar value in round 2 so taking the best DT, a more important position to fill, would be a better idea.

30.  San Francisco 49ers (12-4):  Brandin Cooks   WR   Oregon St.

The 49ers have a pretty impressive roster without a lot of holes to fill and that comes from years of good drafting.   CB is probably the biggest need on the team after losing Tarell Brown in free agency and cutting Carlos Rogers but that is more about depth.  The 49ers should have Michael Crabtree back at 100% this season and they resigned Anquan Boldin but they could still use another playmaker and Cooks would be a great fit.  He can play on the outside or in the slot and he’s got deep speed that isn’t really Crabtree or Boldin’s strength.  Cooks put up video game like numbers at Oregon St. and adding him to the passing game of Crabtree, Boldin and TE Vernon Davis might just elevate the 49ers offense to the same level as their defense.

Bad idea:  Being gun shy because of the colossal bust that was AJ Jenkins.  Jenkins was far more of a project than Cooks is and it’s just not a fair comparison.

31.  Denver Broncos (13-3):  Bradley Roby   CB   Ohio St.

The Broncos are in the midst of a complete overhaul of their secondary as it looks like free agents Dominique Roger-Cromartie and Chris Harris won’t be back and Champ Bailey was already cut.  CB Aqib Talib has already been signed as well as S TJ Ward so they might as well continue the turnover and grab Bradley Roby from Ohio St.  I am admittedly not the biggest Roby fan but at the end of the 1^st round he is a much easier choice to swallow than towards the middle of round.  Roby is a supreme athlete and lining up opposite Talib means he won’t have to face the opponents best WR which should help.  He will gamble a bit too much and while having Talib covering the opponent’s top WR is nice it also mean Roby will be targeted a lot more.  Roby is a talent and maybe on a team with veterans like Manning, Welker, Terrence Knighton and Von Miller he will learn what it is like to be a professional and learn his trade.

Bad idea:  John Elway is not stupid and he knows that his window of opportunity to win the Super Bowl closes more every year because Manning isn’t getting any younger.  Counting on the very veteran defensive backfield last year came back to haunt them and Elway is trying to fix it.  He also realized he didn’t have enough playmakers on defense which is why he signed DeMarcus Ware.  The signing of WR Emmanuel Sanders from Pittsburgh should make up for the loss of Eric Decker so fixing the defense is top priority.

32.  Seattle Seahawks (13-3):  Kony Ealy   DE   Missouri

A team that just won the Super Bowl and re-signed its most important free agent DE Michael Bennett seems like a strange choice to take a DE in the first round of the draft but that isn’t the whole story.  Seattle won the Super Bowl largely on the strength of its defense and their defensive line has taken some hits after cutting some players to free up money to bring back the likes of Michael Bennett.  DE’s Red Bryant and Chris Clemons were jettisoned because their salaries outweighed their production and valuable back-up DT Clinton McDonald cashed in on his free agency.  The Seahawks know they need to restock the defensive line and luckily for them Kony Ealy is a very good prospect who just so happens to fit their defense.  Ealy has some versatility to his game and he reminds me a little of Justin Tuck.  He could be a very nice complement to Michael Bennett and he is phenomenal value with the last pick of the first round.

Bad idea:  The Seahawks have proven over the last several years that they don’t make a lot of bad decisions in the draft and given the sheer talent available in this particular draft it seems unlikely they will this year.  The depth at WR means they could find a nice replacement for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice if they choose and Ealy isn’t the only defensive lineman worth taking here as guys like Tim Jernigan, Dominique Easley, Stephon Tuitt and Scott Crichton are viable options also.

 

As always this mock draft isn’t just subject to change it is an absolute certainty that it will change.  The fact that there is just under two months before we get to the draft and that the Houston Texans could change their minds eight or nine times before that means at this point no one knows anything.  The NFL Draft is my favorite sporting event and doing mock drafts is my favorite thing to do and that’s why I just wrote a 7200 word mock draft that is certain to be obsolete minutes after I publish it.  Thanks for reading along and if you read through the whole thing that’s awesome, feel free to comment about your favorite team and what you think they should do.

 

2014 Top 5 Defensive Position Rankings

I don’t break down defense in the traditional sense most football people do.  While I will break it down on the defensive line to defensive end (DE) and defensive tackle (DT) and in the secondary to cornerback (CB) and safety (S) the linebacker position is a little different.  I’m going to break it down to pass rushing linebackers (OLB), traditional outside linebackers in a 4-3 defense (LB) and inside or middle linebacker (ILB).  Whether a player is a DE or an OLB depends on the team that drafts him and how they plan to use him.

Defensive End:  This position is for players that fit the traditional pass rushing defensive end on a four man defensive line.  I won’t be breaking them down by left end/right end because it’s a bit much but there is one exception and that’s my guy at #5, he is better suited to be a 3-4 defensive end and is less of a pass rusher.

1. Jadeveon Clowney   South Carolina
2. Kony Ealy   Missouri
3. Scott Crichton   Oregon St.
4. Trent Murphy   Stanford
5. Stephon Tuitt   Notre Dame

There has been a ton written about Clowney and I’ve made it known that I don’t think he should go to Houston first overall but he is far and away the best pass rushing DE in this class.  You can question his work ethic and you can even pick apart some of the things he does on film but he is a freak of an athlete and he knows how to pressure a QB.  He needs some technique work and he needs to learn more than a couple of pass rush moves but that is almost always true of a player that has gotten by on physical talent all his life.  He could be a transcendent talent or he could be a monumental bust.  Kony Ealy is a very good DE prospect and he brings nice size and speed and has a number of good pass rush moves.  He was overshadowed at Missouri by Michael Sam but he is the better pro prospect and while he isn’t the elite athlete Clowney is he will be a nice addition to someone’s defensive line.  There is a considerable drop off after Clowney and Ealy and no other DE is likely to go in the first round (Dee Ford is an OLB in my rankings).  That doesn’t mean that Crichton and Murphy aren’t good players and they could become starters in the NFL.  Crichton is quick off the snap but isn’t overly fast and he plays a little stiff and he doesn’t get the bend off the edge needed to be an elite pass rusher.  The word you hear a lot about Murphy is “rangy” and that’s just the nice way of saying he is too skinny to play DE full-time.  Murphy is only 250 lbs. and that is too light to be a DE but he lacks the lateral quickness and instinct to be an OLB.  Stephon Tuitt is a different kind of DE, he’s a five technique DE meaning he is built to be a defensive end in a 3-4 defense.  Some teams have Tuitt rated as a DT because of his size and he could play that position too but he is best suited at end in an odd front.  He may make the first round if a 3-4 team is looking for a DE but as a DT he rates a little lower because the position has much more depth.

Sleeper:  Kareem Martin   North Carolina

Truthfully Martin ranks 6^th on the list of DE’s and he is likely to go in the second round so it’s tough calling him a sleeper but not everyone is talking about him and I really like him as a prospect.  He brings scheme versatility because he could be a DE on a four man front or on a three man line.  At 6’6 272 lbs. he has the size and after running 4.72 40 he showed the speed but what doesn’t show is the production on the field.  He isn’t a natural pass rusher but he holds the point of attack very well which makes me think he is better suited to a 3-4 but a good defensive line coach might get a hold of him and turn that raw talent into something impressive.

Defensive Tackle:  Great defensive tackles come in many shapes and sizes and teams evaluate them based on what they are looking for in their scheme.  Some guys play better rushing the passer (Aaron Donald); some guys are better clogging up the middle (Louis Nix) and some guys just block out the sun (RaShede Hageman).  My rankings are based on who I want on my team the most.

1. Aaron Donald   Pittsburgh
2. Louis Nix   Notre Dame
3. Tim Jernigan   Florida St.
4. RaShede Hageman   Minnesota
5. Dominique Easley   Florida

Let’s face facts if Aaron Donald was three inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier he’d be a lock to be a top 5 pick but the NFL discriminates against DT’s that aren’t fat enough…err…sorry big enough.   Donald is a monster that is going to terrorize offensive guards and centers for years and while everyone knows it there are plenty of NFL teams that will pass on him because they have one of those carnival ride cutout things that say “You must be this tall to be an NFL defensive tackle”, their loss.  Louis Nix is a classic nose tackle at 6’2 331 lbs. but the scary thing is he can be just as effective paired inside at DT.  Nix was injured and missed some of the season but he is a beast at stuffing the run and he will make the team that drafts him happy for the next decade.  Tim Jernigan is smooth and fluid and moves very well for a guy that is 300 lbs.  He can get into the backfield and disrupt the play but he can also hold his point and jam up the line of scrimmage.  Jernigan is a nightmare because he is very strong and moves his feet well and that is a tough combination to block.  Hageman is 6’6 310 lbs. and looks even bigger than that.  He could play nose tackle, defensive tackle or defensive end on a three man line so he could fit with virtually any team.  Hageman needs some coaching on staying low and that’s a tough thing for a 6’6 guy inside but he can do it.  Dominique Easley is the wild card because he is a tremendous talent that is coming back from an injury.  He is undersized but he is explosive off the line and uses his hands very well and that negates his lack of bulk.  He has played DE but he is much better as a penetrating DT that can disrupt the play in the backfield.

Sleeper:  Ego Ferguson   LSU

Ferguson is an undisciplined DT that doesn’t use his hands as well as he should and doesn’t have much explosion but he is 6’3 315 lbs. and he is a very flexible athlete.  The things he doesn’t do well are all of the things that a coach can teach him and you can’t teach a man his size to be as athletically gifted as Ferguson.  He will never be much of pass rusher but he will man the middle of a defensive line very well for someone.

Outside Linebacker (the pass rushers):  This group has some serious talent at the top and a few very nice players later that could really help teams with the 3-4 defense.  Lots of teams need guys in this group so some of them may get drafted above their overall value.

1. Khalil Mack   Buffalo
2. Anthony Barr   UCLA
3. Dee Ford   Auburn
4. Jeremiah Attaochu   Georgia Tech
5. Trevor Reilly   Utah

Khalil Mack is a star that is about to be born in the NFL.  He may not be from a powerhouse team but he proved in his game against Ohio St. and at his workouts that he can play with anybody.   I think with the Atlanta Falcons switch to a 3-4 defense there is no way he falls lower than their 6^th overall pick in the first round and he may go higher than that.  Anthony Barr just ran a reported 4.44 40 at his pro day workout at UCLA and his upside is incredible.  Barr has only been playing defense for two years and someone is going to get a fantastic athlete that just needs a little time to learn all the ins and outs of being a linebacker.  Dee Ford was a pass rusher extraordinaire from the DE position at Auburn but he is too small to be an every down DE in the NFL so he embraced his move to OLB and shed a little weight to be faster and more explosive.  Ford has a knack for getting to the QB and playing in space should only help him do that even better.  I haven’t seen a lot of Jeremiah Attaochu but I did see some of his work from the Senior Bowl and he is most definitely more comfortable as a pass rushing outside linebacker than as a DE or as a possible inside linebacker.  Attaochu knows how to attack the edge and he will need some coaching on the finer points of being a linebacker but he does the one thing teams really want very well.  Trevor Reilly is a great athlete that lacks strength but he knows how to use his athleticism to get to the QB.

Sleeper:  Adrian Hubbard   Alabama

I know you’re asking yourself how a guy from Alabama is a sleeper and a guy from Buffalo is the top player at the position but trust me it’s true.  Hubbard was supposed to be on this top 5 list going into the year but he didn’t have a great season and he was overshadowed by many players on Alabama’s defense.  He is a long athlete at 6’6 and he doesn’t have great burst or overwhelming strength but he is actually one of the better all-around linebackers that is considered a pass rusher.  Hubbard plays the run better than Reilly and is more comfortable in coverage than Attaochu but nothing about Hubbard jumped off the film this year and he seemed underwhelming at times.  He may make a better pro than he was in college this last year.

Linebackers:  This position is made up of guys that fit best on the outside of a 4-3 alignment and they are more traditional linebackers.  These guys have all-around games where they can chase ball carriers, drop into coverage and occasionally blitz the QB.  Some may even be able to play inside or middle linebacker in the right system.

1. Ryan Shazier   Ohio St.
2. Kyle Van Noy   BYU
3. Christian Jones   Florida St.
4. Telvin Smith   Florida St.
5. Carl Bradford   Arizona St.

Shazier is the quintessential speed linebacker and while he is slightly undersized his speed allows him to hit with maximum force.  He can chase down RB’s and cover anyone while dropping into coverage and he does his best work when his defensive line can keep him free and clear of blockers.  Shazier is a great athlete with elite speed and a day one starter in the NFL.  Van Noy is the type of outside linebacker that can rush the passer if needed but he drops into coverage and plays like a traditional linebacker better than your typical pass rushing OLB.  His game suffered a bit this last year at BYU but that was mostly due to the loss of last year’s breakout player Ezekiel Ansah and opponents focusing more on stopping Van Noy.  Those two are unquestionably ahead of the pack at this position and now comes the guys whose best position is undetermined.  Christian Jones is seen by many as an inside linebacker and some believe he can play the traditional middle linebacker spot.  Jones has the versatility to play either of those or at outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense but his best spot is probably as one of the inside linebackers in a 3-4.  I can see Jones being a Brian Cushing type of linebacker but hopefully for the sake of the team drafting him he has better luck than Cushing staying healthy.  Jones’s Florida St. teammate is the woefully undersized Telvin Smith.  Smith tipped the scales at the combine at 218 lbs. and had teams wondering if he needs to move to strong safety because his lack of bulk could hinder him at linebacker.  He is an explosive athlete with incredible speed and quickness a very effective blitzer and good in coverage.  His size limits him to playing in space because he can be overwhelmed if a blocker gets ahold of him.  He has better strength than you would imagine but his lack of bulk is a concern.  Carl Bradford has the exact opposite problem as Telvin Smith in the fact that he is built like a fire hydrant.  At 6’1 250 lbs. he is short but powerfully built.  He played all over the defense for the Sun Devils lining up at DE, ILB and OLB and he was good pass rusher.  Once Bradford finds his place, and I think that’s as an ILB, he should be a playmaker for whichever team drafts him.

Sleeper:  Christian Kirksey   Iowa

Yes I’m a Hawkeye fan and while I loathe being thought of as a homer Kirksey is an easy choice for me at this position.  James Morris was the team leader and Anthony Hitchens racked up tons of tackles for the Hawkeyes but Kirksey is the best pro prospect.  At 6’2 233 lbs Kirksey has the size and the speed to be an excellent pro.  He can cover, he can blitz, he can stop the run and I think he has the versatility to line up outside or inside and excel in either spot.  Kirksey may not go until the 4^th or 5^th round but that just means someone is going to get an excellent player in the middle rounds.

Inside Linebacker:  This is a position that has been devalued in the NFL because of the passing game taking over and because most of these guys are just two down players.  Only one player (Mosley) will go in the first round and you may not hear any of these other names until round 3.  That doesn’t mean these guys are bad football players, on the contrary they are pretty good, they just don’t have the same value to teams anymore.

1. CJ Mosley   Alabama
2. Chris Borland   Wisconsin
3. Yawin Smallwood   UConn
4. Shane Skov   Stanford
5. Lamin Barrow   LSU

The gap between the Mosley and the rest of this group is the size of the Grand Canyon.  There will be no position in the draft with as long of a wait between the first player drafted and the next player drafted.  Mosley is a special talent and the type of leader every team needs on defense.  He knows where he needs to be and where everyone on his defense should line-up.  Mosley is instinctual, intelligent and athletically gifted and can play three downs unlike everyone else in these rankings.  Borland is a try-hard type of player that makes up for his lack of athleticism by playing hard and never giving up on a play.  He has a nose for the football and he will be a nice run stuffing middle linebacker but if anyone expects him to cover someone on third down their defense is going to suffer for it.  Yawin Smallwood was seen as an athletic inside linebacker with the ability to drop into coverage right up until he ran a 5.01 40 at the combine and his stock took a bit hit.  Smallwood is more agile than most of his counterparts but his lack of strength and pedestrian speed are making teams wonder where he fits best.  Shane Skov is your very typical run stopper and he is great at diagnosing plays quickly and getting into the back field early to disrupt running plays.  His ability to take on blockers actually makes him a perfect fit at inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense but he is athletically limited and so is value is in the mid to late rounds.  Lamin Barrow is slightly undersized but is a terrific athlete.  The biggest problem for Barrow at middle linebacker is that he isn’t a great tackler but that is something he could learn.  I am seriously unimpressed by this group outside of Mosley but run stuffing middle linebackers will always have a place in the NFL.

Sleepers:  Max Bullough   Michigan St;   James Morris   Iowa

This is a total cop out because I didn’t want to pick between these two stalwarts of the Big Ten.  Bullough is a huge run stuffer and while he is a one trick pony it is a hell of a trick.  I picked Morris because the idea that Chris Borland is a 3^rd rounder but Morris is a 6^th or 7^th rounder at best is ludicrous.  Borland is stronger and doesn’t get caught out of position as often as Morris but Morris is quicker and faster and those differences can’t account for a 3 or 4 round difference.  I’m not saying Morris is a 3^rd rounder I just think he is slightly undervalued while Borland is overvalued.  Both Borland and Morris are better in coverage than Bullough but none of the three excel at it so I fail to see the discernible difference between these three, they all look like 5^th to 6^th round picks that can actually make NFL rosters to me.

Cornerbacks:  This position is a two man race to the top and by draft day it will still be a pick ‘em between Darqueze Dennard and Justin Gilbert.  Cornerback is deep in this draft but it isn’t especially top heavy and there are a number of players that could move into the first round or drop into the third based on workouts and which teams are picking them.  As much as any position in the NFL scheme is a big factor in drafting corners.

1. Justin Gilbert   Oklahoma St.
2. Darqueze Dennard   Michigan St.
3. Jason Verrett   TCU
4. Kyle Fuller   Virginia Tech
5. Bradley Roby   Ohio St.

Gilbert gets the top spot not because he’s a better corner than Dennard but because you can’t ignore the fact that he brings excellent return skills also.  Getting Gilbert means getting a top flight corner and a top flight return man and that tips a very close race in his direction.  Gilbert is quick, fast, smooth and a more natural athlete than Dennard.  His back pedal is superior and he flips his hips as well as anyone in this draft.  Gilbert has all the qualities to be a #1 corner in the NFL.  Dennard is no slouch and for a team looking for a physical man-to-man cover guy he is the better pick.  His game is getting up on the line of scrimmage and jamming receivers and he will back down from no one.  It really could come down to a coin flip for which one is best and both of them will make good starting corners right away.  Jason Verrett might have the most natural coverage instincts of the whole group but at 5’9 his height puts him at a disadvantage against bigger WR’s.  Verrett is tough for his size and he reminds me a little of the old Patriots CB Ty Law and while Law was an excellent corner he never had to face WR’s like Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones.  He has skills to cover but I’m not sure anyone wants him lining up every play against those guys.  Kyle Fuller has been a bit of the forgotten man at corner because he spent a lot of his senior year injured and was just never himself.  I remember watching him a bit last year when I thought he might come out as a junior and he was pretty good.  Despite the fact that he ran a pretty good time he doesn’t show great make-up speed on the field but he is a good cover guy and should be a good pro.  Roby is one of my least favorite top prospects because I’m always wary of cornerbacks that get by on being great athletes and lack technique.  He may have a hard time working out for teams individually if he has to spend all of his time traveling the country and destroying every copy of the Ohio St./Wisconsin football game from this last year.  Roby was thoroughly dominated in the game by Jared Abbrederis and I’m sure none of that game is available on his highlight reel.  Roby is a supreme athlete but he needs a lot of coaching to live up to his potential.

Sleepers:  Lamarcus Joyner   Florida St;    Keith McGill   Utah

I’m going with the two completely opposite players on the cornerback spectrum because both of these guys have their place in the NFL.  College football fans will recognize Joyner’s name immediately because he was a defensive leader for the National Champion Florida St. Seminoles.  Joyner is woefully undersized at 5’8 184 lbs. but that won’t stop him from being a good NFL nickel corner.  He is small, shifty and isn’t afraid to be physical inside because he’s lined up at safety before.  Joyner is a football player and whether he lines up covering the slot or possibly as a free safety he will make whatever defense he’s on better.  Keith McGill is a guy not a lot of people have heard of and honestly I haven’t seen much actually film of him but I did watch him at the combine and I was impressed.  At 6’3 211 lbs. McGill brings the size everyone is looking for at the position and he was seriously impressive in the corner drills at the combine.  Most guys as tall and lanky as he is are not very fluid in their movement and while McGill has some technique issues to work on I can see a future starting corner in this kid.

Safety:  I would split this into free and strong safety but there is not really five of each to discuss so I’m just listing the top 5 between the two positions.  There are only two sure fire first round picks and maybe one guy that could sneak into the end of the round but more than likely he’s a second round player.

1. Hasean “Haha” Clinton-Dix   Alabama
2. Calvin Pryor   Louisville
3. Jimmie Ward   Northern Illinois
4. Terrence Brooks   Florida St.
5. Deon Buchanan   Washington St.

Clinton-Dix and Pryor looked like they were going to fight it out for the top safety prospect on the board and while Pryor still has his fans Clinton-Dix seems to be pulling away a little as the top choice.  Clinton-Dix is superior in coverage and in the NFL that is what you want from your free safety.  After spending three years under Nick Saban at Alabama Clinton-Dix is the next in a long line of good secondary players from the Crimson Tide.  Pryor is a very good prospect and while he is a free safety also he is a little better defending in the run game than as a cover guy and in the right system he could line up as a strong safety.  Jimmie Ward is a bit undersized for strong safety but he is more comfortable and more natural playing closer to the line of scrimmage.  He has some cover skills so he can be a complete safety but he isn’t the ball hawk you would want playing center field.  Terrence Brooks is another guy from the reigning National Champion Seminoles (pretty easy to figure out why they were so good) and he actually has great cover skills as a safety because he spent his first two years playing corner at Florida St.  Brooks is a little on the small side but his cover skills are exactly what NFL teams want from their safeties nowadays so he will have some fans on draft day.  Deon Buchanan is the more old school in-the-box strong safety prospect and he doesn’t have great coverage skills but there is still a place in the NFL for an intimidator.  He is big and physical and is in the mold of a guy like Donte Whitner so he will make some noise, mostly when he hits someone.

Sleeper:  Ed Reynolds   Stanford

What can I say I like my free safeties to be smart and you can’t go wrong with a guy from Stanford if you’re looking for intelligence.  Reynolds is a pretty good at covering TE and in today’s NFL that is a huge skill to have.  He does most everything well but not necessarily anything great but he is well rounded and knows where to be.  Reynolds is the type of player that gets drafted in the 3^rd or 4^th round and comes in a steals a starting job from someone.

 

NFL Free Agency and other moves

Good Moves:  Surprised there are so many so early

–          The Buccaneers signed DE Michael Johnson away from the Bengals for 5 years and $43 million.  Lovie Smith needs a pass rusher opposite Adrian Clayborn and outside of Gerald McCoy and he got a good one in the 27 year old Johnson.  He only had 3.5 sacks last year but he will bring the pressure and he’ll surpass that this year in Tampa.

–          The Vikings reportedly signed DT Linval Joseph.  Pairing Joseph inside with Sharrif Floyd is a fantastic idea.  Mike Zimmer knows how to build a defense; from the inside out.

–          Ravens resigned Eugene Monroe. Both of the Ravens OT’s (Monroe and Oher) are free agents and Monroe is the more important one because he is more talented and plays LT.  Locking up the guy to protect your $100 million QB is great move.

–          Arizona Cardinals sign LT Jared Veldheer from the Raiders.  The Cardinals LT spot has been atrocious for a while and while Veldheer isn’t exactly a perennial Pro Bowler compared to the guys the Cardinals have been playing at LT he is Anthony Munoz.

–          The Colts resigned Vontae Davis for a ton of money but he was an excellent CB for them last season and he allows Chuck Pagano to play the defense the way he wants to.  The even better signing was grabbing the underrated DL Arthur Jones from the Ravens.  Pagano coached Jones when he was with the Ravens and he knows he fits his scheme perfectly.

–          The Bears have somewhat of a trade going on since they dumped DE Julius Peppers and signed DE Lamarr Houston from the Raiders.  Houston is an under-the-radar player because the Raiders defense was terrible last year but Houston is a very good player and a whole lot younger than Peppers.

–          The Eagles signed S Malcolm Jenkins and considering how abysmal the Eagles secondary was last year anything is an upgrade.

–          Broncos grabbed S TJ Ward from the Browns and while a Super Bowl team taking players from the Browns doesn’t sound like a good idea Ward may be the exception.  The Broncos got pushed around by the Seahawks and Ward will bring an attitude to them they didn’t have before.

–          The Falcons signed nose tackle Paul Soliai and while he is already 30 years old he fits perfectly into their new 3-4 defense since they had no one on the roster that can play NT.  They also signed DE Tyson Jackson another player that fits the three man front.  OG Jon Asamoah was signed from the Chiefs and he will be a serious upgrade at guard for them and won’t cost nearly as much as the Jaguars spent on Zane Beadles (more on that later).

–          49ers signed S Antoine Bethea from the Colts to replace Donte Whitner and while Whitner is good Bethea brings better coverage skills.

–          The Redskins are reportedly signing WR Andre Roberts from Arizona.  Roberts isn’t a big name and his numbers suffered last year because Michael Floyd finally stepped up but Roberts is a nice slot receiver to pair with Pierre Garcon on the outside and Jordan Reed a TE; RGIII finally has some weapons.

Bad Moves: Not surprised at the teams making questionable moves

–          The Oakland Raiders signed OL Roger Saffold to a 5 year $42.5 million for some strange reason.  They are getting killed for giving Saffold more money than Eugene Monroe got from the Ravens since Saffold isn’t as good of a LT as Monroe and actually played better at guard last year.  The also spent more on Saffold they their own starting LT last year (Veldheer) got from the Cardinals.  It’s possible the Raiders plan on playing him at guard but that makes the contract even more ridiculous.

–          The Jaguars gave Bronco’s OG Zane Beadles 5 years $30 million.  Beadles is a nice guard and he may even make a Pro Bowl here or there but $6 million a year to a guard is over the top.  Only the transcendent guards should make anywhere near that money.  Guys like Logan Mankins and Alan Faneca back in the day.

–          The Browns signed LB Karlos Dansby to a 4 year $24 million deal.  Dansby is a terrific player but he’s 32 years old and I don’t think he’s going to magically transform the Browns into a contender in the next year or two.  It’s not so much signing him that is bad it’s guaranteeing him $14 million when there is little chance he will be around when you might get good.  I thought Dansby would leave the Cardinals to chase a ring but there was no way he could pass up that pay day.

–          The Miami Dolphins finally ended the chase they started a year ago by signing OT Brandon Albert from the Chiefs.  Last year the Dolphins tried desperately to trade for Albert after the Chiefs franchise tagged him but the teams couldn’t come to an agreement.  Albert is a nice starting LT and to the Dolphins he is a godsend but they are going to pay him top 5 tackle money and Albert is not in that stratosphere.

Neutral Moves:

–          The Cowboys cut DE DeMarcus Ware because he refused to restructure his deal and take a pay cut.  Some people would say the Cowboys are stupid for losing their best defensive player but those people are wrong because LB Sean Lee is their best defensive player.  Some people would say Ware is stupid to leave the Cowboys because he’s 31 years old and no one is going to pay him as much as the reduced salary the Cowboys would but they are wrong too.  The Cowboys changed defenses last season and Ware did fine but he wasn’t his dominant self and he belongs in a 3-4 defense playing OLB.  This divorce is best for both parties because the Cowboys need to move on and so does Ware.  The Falcons are transitioning to a 3-4 and if they can find the room for Ware that is a match made in heaven.  He doesn’t have many years left and the Falcons could make a quick rebound and contend this year.

–          The 49ers traded a sixth round draft pick for QB Blaine Gabbert.  It sucks for the Jaguars that Gabbert was a bust but at least they got a something out of him instead of cutting him for nothing.  The 49ers give up a pick they would have used on a player that was highly unlikely to make their roster and they get to take a look at a young QB that poses absolutely no threat to Kaepernick but could develop into a solid back-up.

2014 NFL Draft Top 5 Offensive Positional Rankings

Quarterback:  These rankings are based on the overall consensus of who the top 4 QB’s are (Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel and Carr) put in the order I favor them and then Mettenberger gets the nod from me over AJ McCarron and Jimmy Garoppolo for the fifth spot.

1. Teddy Bridgewater   Louisville
2. Blake Bortles    Central Florida
3. Johnny Manziel   Texas A&M
4. Derek Carr   Fresno St.
5. Zach Mettenberger    LSU

Bridgewater is my pick if I’m the Texans picking at #1.  He is a guy that hasn’t reached his ceiling yet but he’s good enough right now to step in and lead Houston’s offense from day 1.  Arian Foster and Andre Johnson aren’t getting any younger, the offensive line is solid if not spectacular and the team finally drafted a good complementary WR in DeAndre Hopkins last year; the only thing missing is a solid QB.  Bortles certainly looks the part and he checks off all the boxes of a potential franchise QB but he still worries me because I’ve seen too many of these types come up short (Kyle Boller, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert just to name a few).  Bortles has loads of potential but so did those guys and they didn’t raise their game or lift the performance of the guys around them.  There is a very fine line between Andrew Luck and Kyle Boller and it has very little to do with their physical traits.  Johnny Manziel is arguably the most polarizing prospect ever because people either believe he is the second coming of Joe Montana or they think he’s the antichrist.  I’m somewhere in the middle but I’m leaning towards Manziel flaming out like the next Ryan Leaf.  The fame, the fortune and the celebrity may just be too much for him and there is nothing more destructive to a QB than believing his own hype.  The scariest thing about this year’s QB prospects is that Derek Carr may be the safest choice.  He doesn’t profile like a perennial Pro Bowler but you know what you are getting with him.  He can throw the ball all over the field and he put up huge numbers in Fresno St.’s videogame like offense but no one is certain he’s an NFL starter.  Carr will be a better player than Christian Ponder and with the right team around him he can be a playoff QB.  As a matter of fact I’m fairly certain if you put him in place of Andy Dalton on the Bengals they might actually be better.  I’m not suggesting the Bengals draft him I’m just saying with an offense that has guys like AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Giovani Bernard and Marvin Jones I think Carr could be successful.  Zach Mettenberger is an interesting prospect that is recovering from a knee injury and hasn’t been able to show off for scouts.  This last season under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron at LSU Mettenberger showed how well he could run a pro-style offense and he profiles like an NFL QB.  At 6’5 224 lbs. he is the type of big pocket passer NFL team’s love and under the right coaching staff and with a team that can allow him to recover from his knee injury he could be very good starting QB down the road.

Sleeper: Aaron Murray   Georgia

I already said in my scouting combine thoughts that Murray is my second favorite QB after Bridgewater and I stand behind that assessment.  The reason I don’t rank him second is because I believe strongly in ranking guys based partly on the order in which they might get drafted.  Murray may be my second QB but his draft stock has him in the 3^rd– 4^th round range and I wholeheartedly believe in never drafting a guy above his value.  Draft value isn’t determined by a one scouting perspective it is a collective belief of where a player ranks.  The truth is there are only 3 QB’s in this draft that I think will be starting QB’s in the NFL five years from now and they are Bridgewater, Mettenberger and Murray.

Running Back:  These rankings are based on my preference because in the NFL there is virtually no consensus about running backs.  Every team needs or wants something different and the specialization of the position has made ranking all the backs together almost ludicrous but breaking them down into All-Purpose, Speed, Power and Scat Back just seemed tedious.

1. Ka’Deem Carey   Arizona
2. Tre Mason   Auburn
3. Jeremy Hill   LSU
4. Carlos Hyde   Ohio St.
5. Bishop Sankey   Washington

If Ka’Deem Carey can seriously improve his 40 time at his pro day then he will safely be the top RB in this class but for now he is just one of the guys.  Carey isn’t big but he has an all-around game that most of the other backs don’t have and he can help someone right away.  If a team like the Raiders, who are absent any legitimate NFL running back, were to draft Carey he would start immediately and be pretty productive.  Mason was the star of Auburn’s resurgent offense under Gus Malzahn and he has legitimate NFL talent but he didn’t show the pass catching ability that Carey has shown and he isn’t the tough inside runner that Carey has proven to be.  Part of Mason’s problem is that he is a bit of an upright style runner and that doesn’t bode well for him given his smaller frame.  Jeremy Hill is a powerful downhill runner with an impressive combination of size and speed.  At 6’1 233 lbs. he is built like the prototypical NFL RB.  He doesn’t possess the pass catching ability of a guy like Carey but his hands are adequate.  Carlos Hyde is the quintessential power back and he would much rather run over somebody than run around them.  Hyde can’t be taken down by arm tackles and he has deceptive speed.  Not a player you are going to throw it to out of the back field but when you need the tough yards he will get them.  Bishop Sankey won’t wow you with any one of his skills but he is a fantastic all-around RB.  He is equally adept running inside or outside or catching passes and despite his slight build he is a solid blocker in blitz pickup.  Sankey bared much of the offensive load at Washington and he never wilted under the pressure.

Sleeper:  Charles Sims   West Virginia

Sims is sort of the forgotten man at the RB position as he is a fifth year senior that played on a West Virginia team that wasn’t very good.  Sims has all the necessary skills to be a good NFL back and his natural pass catching skills, especially in the screen game, could make him a perfect fit in the league.  He runs too upright and doesn’t get low enough and he loses leverage battles because of it.  There are a lot of starting RB’s that should consider renting a place instead of buying if their team selects Sims in the draft.

Wide Receivers:  This is another position that could be further broken down into big physical outside receivers, small quick inside receivers and guys that can do both equally well (the Sammy Watkins division).

1. Sammy Watkins   Clemson
2. Mike Evans   Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee   USC
4. Odell Beckham Jr.   LSU
5. Jordan Matthews   Vanderbilt
6. Brandin Cooks   Oregon St.
7. Kelvin Benjamin   Florida St.
8. Allen Robinson   Penn St.

A position that was seriously enhanced by the addition of underclassmen Jordan Matthews is the only senior in my top 8 (yeah I know I cheated but I couldn’t stop at 5).  Unlike last year’s top WR choice Tavon Austin Sammy Watkins actually deserves to go in the top 10 picks.  The hype that Austin received was largely due to the lack of quality in last year’s WR class but the fact the Watkins is the consensus top WR in this class speaks to the level of his talent.  Watkins is not in the mold of Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones he is more like a slightly larger version of Torry Holt.  Watkins has a great combination of size, speed and innate WR skill and is a legitimate #1 WR.  Mike Evans is in the mold of Calvin Johnson at 6’5 231 lbs. with enough speed to hurt you.  He isn’t in Johnson’s class (no one is at the moment) but that is where his ceiling could be.  Evans is a long strider with deceptive deep speed and while he may lack the short area burst of a smaller receiver he is very adept at using his body to shield defenders.  Marqise Lee isn’t the biggest or the strongest or the fastest WR but he has more natural ability than most of the receivers in this draft.  He won’t wow you but he will beat you repeatedly and you won’t know why.  Smooth and savvy are words that come to mind when watching Lee play and if he gets back completely healthy he is going to be someone’s #1 WR next season.  Odell Beckham Jr. is so physically gifted his mind is still trying to catch up with his body and when it does he is going to dominate his opponents.  When I compared him to Steve Smith I wasn’t trying to be hyperbolic. Smith entered the league as a supremely gifted but raw player and molded himself into a star and Beckham has the chance to do the same.  Beckham isn’t a tall receiver but Smith proved that you don’t have to be 6’4 to dominate as a WR in the NFL.  All Jordan Matthews did in his college career was rewrite the SEC record books for receivers and no one wanted to notice until he went to the combine and ran the 40 in 4.46 seconds.  Matthews is 6’3 212 lbs. and he is an excellent route runner and by all accounts a very intelligent player.  Matthews may have already reached his ceiling as a player but I’m not sure he needs to get much better to be a great pro.  I couldn’t stop at the top 5 because along with the first five Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson could make it 8 WR in the first round.  Yes, in my combine post I said seven but that’s only because I forgot to include Robinson and he certainly has a shot at round 1 also.  Cooks is the quick shifty guy, Benjamin is the nearly tight end sized WR and Robinson falls somewhere in between.  Cooks was highly productive at Oregon St, Benjamin makes teams salivate over his ridiculous size and Robinson makes everyone wonder what they could do with all that raw ability.

Sleeper:  Jared Abbrederis   Wisconsin

I really hate to give this spot to a Badger but Abbrederis is sneaky good.  Most evaluations have him going somewhere in the 3^rd or 4^th round and that’s a steal.  At 6’1 195 lbs. he ran a 4.5 40 which surprised a lot of people because he is thought of as a possession receiver and not really the big play guy.  He understands his position and he knows how to use his routes to set up a defensive back and beat him.  Abbrederis is bigger than guys like Wes Welker, Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman but he’s not as big as guys like Jordy Nelson or Eric Decker (yes I’m well aware that I just named virtually every white WR in the NFL in that sentence).  The truth is Abbrederis’ game is also somewhere in between those two sets of players.  His most impressive film is against Ohio St. where he destroyed Bradley Roby over and over again.  There are a lot of good WR’s ranked ahead of him on most boards but he’ll undoubtedly outplay and outlast many of them in the NFL.

Tight End:  The top five TE’s in this draft are pretty obvious and there isn’t much debate given that there is a serious drop off after number five.

1. Eric Ebron   North Carolina
2. Jace Amaro   Texas Tech
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins   Washington
4. CJ Fiedorowicz   Iowa
5. Troy Niklas   Notre Dame

After the college season when Ebron and Amaro declared for the draft it looked like they were going to have a fight to the death to see which one went first, then the combine came and Ebron removed all doubt.  Ebron isn’t the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski but he compares favorably to Vernon Davis on the field.  He isn’t the freakish athlete that Davis is but Davis has never been the dominant TE his athleticism suggests he can be.  Ebron is a top 15 selection and will make a nice weapon in someone’s passing attack.  Amaro is a fantastic pass catcher and he is what they call a “move” TE.  He’s bigger than say Aaron Hernandez and less homicidal but what knocked him down from Ebron is that Amaro can’t block.  In his defense Texas Tech’s offense never asked Amaro to even pretend to block so it’s possible he can learn but from what teams saw at the combine he has a long ways to go in that part of his game.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the top TE prospect going into the college football season and he is a great physical specimen with all the on-the-field talents you could ask for but he has red flags flying everywhere.  He has a DUI arrest from last year and he recently has foot surgery so teams are going to be cautious with him.  His production fell off last season compared to the season before but that was partially because he was asked to block more and Washington’s offense wasn’t as dependent on him.  Seferian-Jenkins has a more well-rounded game than the top two players but he doesn’t look like the dynamic pass catcher they are and that may hurt him.  Depending on the team drafting it is completely possible he passes Amaro and gets drafted before him.  CJ Fiedorowicz is the best blocker among the top five TE’s and while his numbers aren’t eye catching he is a more than capable receiver.  He is a big target with huge hands and a great understanding of how to use his body to shield the defender.  He was underutilized in Iowa’s offense and he might blossom on the right team with the right QB and offense that would take advantage of his skills.  Troy Niklas is right there with Fiedorowicz and is ahead of him at #4 in some rankings.  I rank Niklas below Fiedorowicz because he is still a bit raw.  He has the size and skill but is still lacking some of the refinement you see in the top four guys.

Sleeper:  Umm…yeah…there isn’t one.  After the top 5 guys it is truly an underwhelming bunch.  Tennessee St. TE AC Leonard ran a nice 4.5 40 at the combine to get a little notice but at 6’2 252 lbs. that isn’t going to set the scouting world on fire, it basically makes him a really heavy WR.

Offensive Tackle:  This position was weakened when four highly rated underclassmen stayed in school; Cameron Erving-Florida St, Brandon Scherff-Iowa, La’el Collins-LSU and Cedric Ogbuehi-Texas A&M.  That left what looked like five top guys until Cyrus Kouandjio’s rough combine experience.

1. Jake Matthews   Texas A&M
2. Greg Robinson   Auburn
3. Taylor Lewan   Michigan
4. Zack Martin   Notre Dame
5. *TBD*  Cyrus Kouandjio   Alabama

Greg Robinson put on a show at the combine and he did so well he didn’t even work out at Auburn’s pro day (leaving on a high note, George Costanza would be proud).  On many prospect rankings Robinson has passed Matthews and he very well may be drafted first but Matthews is still my choice for the top spot.  Matthews is a plug and play player; draft him, start him and don’t worry about the position for the next decade.  He can play left or right tackle equally well and unlike last year’s top tackles (Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Lane Johnson) Matthews looks like a future perennial Pro Bowler to me.  Robinson has a very high ceiling and you can’t teach a man that big to be that athletic but he is far from a finished product.  When it comes to a blind side protector for your franchise QB I will take the sure thing every time.  Taylor Lewan had started to drop like a rock because of his less than impressive senior season and the thought that he just isn’t athletic enough to play LT in the NFL.  His combine performance reversed that but the truth is he is best suited to RT and he could excel there.  He will struggle against the elite outside edge rushers and that would be far more problematic at LT than RT.  Zack Martin is a tad short at 6’4 for your typical NFL tackle but the kid is a tactician and he understands leverage and rarely gets overwhelmed.  Most teams initially thought Martin would be an NFL guard and he may still turn out to be best suited there but his Senior Bowl week and his work outs have guaranteed he’ll get a shot to play OT to start with.  Kouandjio’s medical exam at the combine showed an arthritic knee condition that has thrown his draft stock into a free fall.  I put him fifth because no one has really stepped up to take the fifth spot away from him.  Antonio Richardson (Tennessee) looks the part until you watch him play and then you leave feeling unsatisfied.  Morgan Moses (Virginia) and Jack Mewhort (Ohio St) are a couple of grizzled veterans who can certainly play but aren’t overwhelming prospects.  If Kouandjio can get one team to look past the medical reports he still has the more upside than all of the guys below him.

Sleeper: James Hurst   North Carolina

Hurst is regarded as a late round pick and some of that has to do with the fact that he broke his fibula in the last game of the season and may not get to fully work out for teams before the draft.  He seems to be recovering and there is talk that he will work out at North Carolina’s pro day but Hurst wasn’t going to blow anyone away even if he was 100%.  He doesn’t make scouts say “wow” but this is a lunch pail type of player that every team needs.  Hurst started 49 games at LT over the past four years taking over the job as a freshman.  That’s impressive for anyone and he has the ability to play at the NFL level and he’s the type of guy you cheer for.

Offensive Guard/Center:  I’m copping out on listing five of each of these guys because I haven’t really see much beyond the top guys at this position and what I have seen of others isn’t worth talking about.

Guards:

1. Xavier Su’a-Filo   UCLA
2. David Yankey   Stanford
3. Gabe Jackson   Mississippi St.

Centers:

1. Travis Swanson   Arkansas
2. Weston Richburg   Colorado St.
3. Marcus Martin   USC

Su’a-Filo is an athletic guy that can move but is stout at the point of attack and most importantly he can fit into any blocking scheme and dominate.  Yankey will excel at OG and his experience playing in Stanford’s pro-style offense will make his transition pretty easy.  He may also get a look by some teams at OT because of his 6’6 frame and athleticism.  Gabe Jackson is a mauler at 336 lbs. and is great at the point of attack.  He struggles a bit moving down field and blocking at the second level but he dominates inside.  Swanson is a taller center who moves with a fluidity you don’t see very often on the offensive line.  He’s physically mature and has a lot of experience.  Weston Richburg is an undersized center at less than 300 lbs. but he doesn’t lack for strength on the field.  He’s very experienced after starting all 49 games of his career.  Martin may be the most physically gifted of the centers but he only started for a year and if I’m drafting a center I want a guy that has been through the fire so to speak.

Sleeper:  Cyril Richardson   Baylor

It’s tough to call a guy that was the top ranked OG going into the season a sleeper but Richardson’s workouts haven’t gone well and he’s tumbling down the board at the moment.  Richardson is a massive human being at 6’5 329 lbs. but his numbers make him seem slow and not very athletic so teams are devaluing him.  This happened last year to a guy named Larry Warford and he fell to the third round where the Detroit Lions gladly scooped him up.  Warford had a wonderful year and the team that grabs Richardson will be just as delighted this time next year.  Richardson is mauler and nothing he does is pretty but it is highly effective and he will be a dominant guard for someone.