I love watching the scouting combine because it gives me a chance to see prospects all in the same context. Most of the drills they do in Indianapolis have absolutely nothing to do with actually playing the game of football but it can give you an insight in to how seriously a prospect takes his preparation. Some of the drills are completely useless depending on the position a prospect will play, trust me when I say that DT Louis Nix’s 40 time is about as important as the number of reps any CB can do on the bench press. The best front offices in the NFL don’t overreact to the numbers but players can throw up red flags if they don’t live up to the expectation. Some players can open eyes by outperforming expectations and the vast majority of players will simply confirm what most teams already know. The most talked about event at the combine is always the 40 yard dash and millions have been made by those who did well and lost by those who didn’t and unfortunately (for the fastest players) without Al Davis still around much less will be wasted on the unknown guy who ran really fast, sorry Dri Archer.
The Headline Makers
Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina:
The most talked about player at the combine is the most likely number one pick and after his impressive showing in front of all the scouts, coaches and GM’s I am about 95% sure Clowney is going to go #1 in the draft. I’m also about 50/50 on the odds that the Texans are the ones making that pick. Clowney didn’t surprise anyone with his fast 40 yard time or his explosive vertical and broad jump numbers, every scout knew it was coming because Clowney’s physical attributes have never been in doubt. He is one of the rare physical specimens you only find in the NFL, a man that is 6’5, 266 pounds and can run 40 yards in about four and half seconds. He measures up to the physical freaks like Vernon Davis and Jevon Kearse that have come before him but that isn’t the problem with Clowney. Desire, heart and dedication are the things GM’s and coaches are trying to figure out about him. His college coach Steve Spurrier didn’t do him any favors last week when he basically said Clowney isn’t a hard worker (I’m paraphrasing). I’m not sure that the Texans pass on him for that reason but they should pass on him because he is not a schematic fit in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense. The Texans drafting Clowney for Crennel’s defense is like buying a Ferrari to drive back and forth to work, that is not what it’s built for.
Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M:
The next most talked about player was Manziel because he is also in consideration for Houston with the #1 pick in the draft. Manziel didn’t throw but he did work out and he proved his athleticism by running one of the fastest 40’s at QB and being towards the top in the vertical and broad jump. Manziel’s short comings, pardon the pun, is that he measured in under 6 feet tall. Manziel is a playmaker but he is not a pocket passer and his ability to go through his progressions is questionable. He has a tendency to take off out of the pocket if his first read isn’t open and that makes NFL coaches wonder why. The offensive line at Texas A&M was pretty good so Manziel didn’t face the kind of pressure that would make it necessary for him to break the pocket as often as he did. His lack of height is a concern and while some will point to the fact that he is eerily similar in almost every physical way to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson I will say that Wilson is a better drop back passer and he doesn’t use his athleticism as a crutch the way Manziel does. Manziel’s off the field celebrity has grown since he became the first freshman to ever win the Heisman two years ago and his “Johnny Football” persona is a concern that teams are taking into consideration. If the Texans decide to roll the dice with Manziel they may be inclined to sign a veteran like Matt Cassel who can come in and give him a chance to learn and not be thrown to wolves right away.
Michael Sam DE/OLB Missouri:
Easily the most talked about eventual 5th or 6th round pick in the history of the scouting combine. Michael Sam went to Indianapolis to show scouts what he can be on the field regardless of his off the field life. Unfortunately he proved what the scouts already suspected and that is that he is a defensive ‘tweener. He isn’t big enough or strong enough to be an every down DE and he isn’t fast enough or athletic enough to make the transition to OLB full time. Sam can find a place in the NFL as a pass rushing specialist and a special team’s player but the combine didn’t help his case for being drafted any higher than the 5th round.
I can’t talk about Michael Sam without addressing his coming out a few weeks ago. So much has been made about the acceptance of a gay player in the locker room of whatever team drafts Sam but I think people have a fundamental misunderstanding about the generation of the players in the NFL. The average age of an NFL player is around 25 years old and that makes a huge difference in the acceptance level Sam is going to face. The reason that Sam’s teammates at Missouri had no problem after he told them last fall about his sexual orientation is because they are between the ages of 18 and 23 and to them being gay wasn’t an issue. They judged Michael Sam based on who he is as a person and not by his sexual orientation. The only reason this is a story is because the media wants to make it one and any GM, coach or owner that decides they don’t want a gay player on their team is as ignorant as the owners that didn’t want black players in the NFL or major league baseball. I’m not going to compare Michael Sam to Jackie Robinson because Sam is not going to face the level of discrimination that Robinson faced and Sam is unlikely to be the Hall of Fame caliber player Robinson was. He will undoubtedly run into a teammate or three that acts like a moron and doesn’t “understand” someone being gay. The Miami Dolphins proved that idiots exist in all work places including an NFL locker room but Sam may benefit from the whole Dolphins fiasco because it means Commissioner Goodell can push to install some workplace rules without it being because of the first openly gay player entering the NFL. It may be the sports world but everyone should be able to go to their job and not face discrimination in any form. There is only one thing I dislike about Michael Sam personally and that is the fact that he went to Missouri but that is not discrimination because I despise all Missouri Tigers equally regardless of sexual orientation.
The guys that helped themselves (and teams won’t regret drafting them higher than originally though)
Blake Bortles QB Central Florida:
Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr all elected not to throw at the combine which meant Bortles had the spotlight all to himself. Manziel, Bridgewater and Bortles are the three top QB’s in the draft and Carr is the only other guy that has a chance to break into the first round and with those three on the sidelines Bortles took center stage and made the most of it. He is the big, physical pocket passer of the top three guys and the question about him is why doesn’t he have a stronger arm? When a QB measures in a 6’5 232 lbs. you expect him to have a cannon for an arm but he didn’t really show it off during games and scouts wondered if it’s there. He proved to everyone in Indianapolis that he has all the arm strength needed to be an NFL QB, he doesn’t have arm strength of say Brett Favre but he had all he needs. I’m not sure he did enough to make Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans fall in love with the idea of taking him #1 but he is certainly in the conversation.
Greg Robinson OT Auburn:
Robinson is the “dancing bear”. What I mean by that is he is a huge hulking human being at 6’5 332 lbs. and he is nimble on his feet. He is still raw as a prospect because he came out of Auburn after his redshirt sophomore year meaning he’s just three years removed from high school graduation. He is still young and developing but he is the type of raw developing prospect that teams love because they think they can mold him into the next Orlando Pace. Robinson will have his growing pains and he won’t be the plug and play player that Jake Matthews is but he has a higher ceiling and many times team will gamble on greatness instead of taking the sure thing. Matthews is the sure thing.
Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan St.:
Dennard was the Thorpe Award winner for a reason and he is a big physical corner and he is in a heated battle with Oklahoma St. corner Justin Gilbert to be the first cover corner off the board. Gilbert ran a blazing fast 40 which was expected but it was Dennard running a 4.51 that got scouts taking. Physicality is Dennard’s game, he loves to jam receivers at line, but the fact that he ran fast enough that it isn’t seen as his weakness anymore could give him the edge over Gilbert. If a team like the Detroit Lions at #10 has a choice between a fast corner or a fast and physical corner it seems like an easy choice.
Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt:
Considering Matthews is the all-time leading WR in just about every category in SEC history he should not have had anything to prove at the combine but that’s not how the scouting world works. He is 6’3 212 lbs and is a natural pass catcher but the big knock on him was that he doesn’t have elite speed…well so much for that. Matthews blazed a time of 4.46 in the 40 and now teams can watch his game tape and stop trying to talk themselves out of liking him. Matthews isn’t the playmaker that Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans or Marqise Lee is but he’s now in a dogfight with Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks to be the fourth WR drafted.
Odell Beckham WR LSU:
Beckham went to the combine and showed the speed (4.43 40 yard dash) necessary to prove that his playmaking is not a fluke. Beckham is the quick twitch athlete with speed that Jordan Matthews isn’t but he is 5’11 not 6’3 like Matthews. Both WR’s showed that they have a place in the NFL and who gets drafted first will likely depend on team needs more than on talent.
Brandin Cooks WR Oregon St.:
I would tell you how good Cooks looked running the 40 but I blinked and I missed it. 4.33 is a ridiculous number in the 40 and when you couple that with Cooks production you get Tavon Austin without the hype. Austin went early in last year’s draft because of the lack of top end talent at the position unfortunately for Cooks he doesn’t have that luxury. There are seven legitimate first round WR prospects in this draft (Watkins, Evans, Lee, Matthews, Beckham, Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin).
Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh:
Pitt DT Aaron Donald gets my vote for MVP of the combine. An undersized DT at barely 6’1 285 lbs. the case against Donald is pretty simply, he isn’t big enough to play DT in the NFL. Sorry but that argument is ludicrous. At 285 lbs. he ran the 40 in 4.68 seconds and did 35 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench press. Speed and power make for a lethal combination inside on the defensive line. The other major plus for Donald is that if you ask his coaches, his teammates and his opponents to sum him up in one word that word is likely to be relentless or some synonym of it. Donald’s motor is always going 100 mph and he doesn’t let up. He has been favorably compared to current Cincinnati Bengal Geno Atkins and the great John Randle, two outstanding undersized DT’s. Between his fantastic week at the Senior Bowl and his phenomenal work at the combine Donald should be a 1st round pick. One more thing, if Jadeveon Clowney had Aaron Donald’s motor he would be the unquestioned #1 pick in this draft and possibly the greatest player to ever play football.
Keith McGill CB Utah:
I don’t know a lot about McGill just yet; sorry I didn’t watch many Utah games this season. I can tell you that when a 6’3 211 lbs. CB runs a 4.51 40, has a 39 inch vertical and hits 10’9 in his broad jump scouts start to drool. McGill looked pretty smooth in the DB drills also so he checks off all the boxes and since this isn’t a great crop of CB’s especially after the first three McGill may make a run up the board very quickly.
The guys that helped themselves (and teams will regret it when they take them too high)
Bradley Roby CB Ohio St.:
Roby is an uber-athlete. He ran 4.39 in the 40, had a 38.5 inch vertical and a 10’4 broad jump. He passes the eyeball test at 5’11 195 lbs. and someone is going to draft him on reputation unfortunately for them I don’t see him living up to it. Put in the tape of the Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin game and watch Jared Abbrederis abuse Roby all day long. He can play CB in the NFL but his combine numbers are going to convince some team to take him at the end of the first round and he just isn’t that good.
Taylor Lewan OT Michigan:
Lewan had started a precipitous fall on draft boards after a rough season that ended with a less than stellar bowl game for the long time Wolverine LT. Teams that watched his tape saw a less than athletic LT that struggled and looked like a poor man’s Jake Long, a player that would almost certainly have to move to RT in the NFL. Then Lewan put on show in Indianapolis running the fastest 40 time of all offensive linemen (4.87), had a 30.5 inch vertical and broad jump of 9’9. Teams now see the athleticism they didn’t see on tape. He is unquestionably the third best OT in the draft behind Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson but now teams are back to talking about him going in the top 10. Lewan’s combine athleticism has never translated to field he has never been that type of offensive lineman. He is a big powerful mauler that does fit better at RT than LT and any team taking him in the top 10 and expecting him to be your LT is going to regret it. He will be overvalued because the OT position is lacking the top end quality like last year’s draft had or next year’s draft potentially has. If a team takes Lewan and puts him at RT like San Diego did last year with DJ Fluker than he could justify a top 15 selection but making him a top 10 pick as LT is a mistake.
The guys that wish the draft took place the day after the college season ended (aka the combine didn’t go well for them).
Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
There were four top prospects that didn’t work out because of medical issues that came up during the combine’s medical evaluations; Dee Ford (back issue), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (foot), Stephon Tuitt (foot) and Kouandjio. While the other three have issues that can heal up and they can work out at a later time Kouandjio’s ailment was reported to be an arthritic knee problem. If there is one term a prospect doesn’t want associated with his medical evaluation arthritic comes in right next to degenerative. The idea of a player with an arthritic knee joint is going to drop Kouandjio from a likely first round pick to the middle rounds. Kouandjio had enough issues after struggling this year on the field and his last on the field impression from Alabama’s bowl game wasn’t doing him any favor but teams still saw a guy with great upside. That upside is no more because teams will question just how long Kouandjio can play football and if he’ll last long enough to live up to his potential.
Jarvis Landry WR LSU:
I was watching the NFL.com feed just before Landry’s WR group took the field and Matt Millen, the former GM of the Detroit Lions (and one of the worst talent evaluators ever) couldn’t stop talking about how much he liked Landry. I immediately dropped him one round in my mind and if any GM’s were within earshot they may have taken Landry off their boards entirely. Landry then proceeded to have as bad of a workout as he possibly could have; I’m just calling it the Millen curse. He is an undersized WR at 5’11 and his 40 time of 4.77 was only a tenth of a second faster than Taylor Lewan. His vertical was unimpressive for a WR at 28.5 inches and he looked just as slow and pedestrian during drills. If teams watch LSU’s bowl game tape they are going to see Landry being blanketed by Iowa true freshman Desmond King and that isn’t going to win him any fans. Landry isn’t a bad player but there was no prospect at the combine that did their entire workout who hurt their draft stock more than Landry. While his college teammate Odell Beckham was making himself look like the next Steve Smith Landry made himself look like the next Jason Avant.
Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona:
The specialization of the RB position has led to the devaluing of RB’s in the draft and that was never more evident than last year when no RB’s were drafted in the first round. This year is no different as guys like Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams and Jeremy Hill are seen as big bruising runners while De’Anthony Thomas, Lache Seastrunk and Tre Mason are the quicker shiftier guys. The one player that looked like he could be a top all-around back was Ka’Deem Carey right up until his 40 time of 4.70 flashed up on the board and once again there is little to no chance there will be a RB taken in the first round of the 2014 draft. Carey is a good back and if he goes to the right team he could easily be starting in the NFL next year and he will be productive but RB’s that run 4.7 don’t go in the first round of the draft even with his overall skillset.
Quick Hit Draft thoughts
– Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater didn’t run or throw at the combine and he was barely talked about in the shadow of Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel but if the Texans take a QB #1 it should be Bridgewater. We are at the over analysis portion of the draft calendar and teams are overthinking everything. Bridgewater can step into the huddle and help a veteran team like the Texans win again next year. You can’t honestly say that about Bortles or Manziel.
– Bridgewater is my favorite QB in this draft but a close second is Georgia QB Aaron Murray. Murray couldn’t work out due to an injury he suffered during the season and the fact that he is barely 6’0 tall means he probably won’t go until at least the 3rd round but someone is getting a very good QB late. Murray has started for four years at Georgia so he’s been through the SEC wars and he knows how to lead. He is also possibly the most accurate QB in this class and in the NFL the throwing windows are tighter and Murray can thread them. Murray can be the next Drew Brees and Brees has been pretty damn good in the NFL.
– I agree with Mike Mayock’s assessment that Buffalo OLB Khalil Mack is the best defender in this draft and while I don’t think I’d take him #1 overall if I’m the Texans I do think he has a longer career than Clowney. If he goes to the right 3-4 defensive team he is my early pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
– UCLA OLB Anthony Barr is still raw in terms of his LB skills but he is a playmaker that some defensive coordinator is going to get to mold into a star. Barr isn’t going to go as high as Clowney or Mack and he probably won’t make the instant impact Mack will but in 3 or 4 years he might be on Mack’s level. He has only been playing LB for two years and he’s just scratching the surface.
– If Sammy Watkins goes to a team with a good QB he would be a lock to be Offensive Rookie of the Year but in order for that to happen he would have to fall to Atlanta at #6, a team that is unlikely to take a WR that high, or fall all the way to Matthew Stafford’s Lions at #10, also unlikely. He can always hope that the team that takes him in the top 5 comes back and grabs Aaron Murray in round 2 or 3.
– Houston needs to entice someone to trade up into the #1 spot and the two most likely scenarios I see for that are Cleveland at #4 or Atlanta at #6. Cleveland would be moving up to secure Johnny Manziel and while I’m not a big Manziel fan this would be completely understandable. Drafting Manziel is shooting for the moon and the Cleveland Browns have nothing to lose. Since they reentered the league after the original Browns left for Baltimore the franchise has been a dumpster fire. Tim Couch, Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden have been their three first round QB’s and gambling on greatness may be the only hope to turn the franchise around. I’m usually an advocate for not doing that sort of thing and a franchise like the Texans shouldn’t but for the sake of Browns fans I say go for it. The idea that Atlanta would make a move may seem strange but they would be moving up to grab Clowney. While the Falcons have other notable holes (OT, TE, S, LB) the move to get Clowney would be filling a need they have ignored for too long and it would give their defense a huge lift. Clowney would be a great fit in their scheme and he might not be a bust if he goes to a team he could help get back to winning instead of being in the wrong defense or being on a terrible team. Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff is not afraid to make a big move, he did it a few years ago to get Julio Jones and he is not likely to be gun shy due to the success that one has been.
The Hott Read 