2013 NFL Overview My Predictions
NFC Playoffs
Division Winners
Washington
Green Bay
Atlanta
San Francisco
Wild Card Teams
Seattle
New Orleans
NFC Championship Game
Atlanta over San Francisco
AFC Playoffs
Division Winners
New England
Cincinnati
Houston
Denver
Wild Card Teams
Indianapolis
Baltimore
AFC Championship Game
Houston over Denver
Super Bowl Prediction
Houston over Atlanta
Individual Player Awards
MVP : (There is about a 98% chance this goes to a QB or a RB)
Contenders: RB Adrian Peterson, QB Peyton Manning, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady
My Dark Horse Candidate: QB Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson is the reigning league MVP and after rushing for over 2000 yards last year he was certainly deserving but that is a tough feat to accomplish and even tougher to repeat. Peterson will almost assuredly rush for over 1800 yards but I think he misses the 2000 yard mark and the Vikings have a disappointing year taking him out of the MVP race. Drew Brees has his coach back and it’s completely possible he throws for over 5000 yards this year with the offense the Saints have. Unfortunately we have come to expect this kind of greatness out of Brees and unless his team goes 15-1 or 14-2 his phenomenal numbers get lost in the shuffle. Tom Brady is certainly as valuable to his team as anyone in the league and he is a guy that makes the players around him better and he will do that this year. However, I think the Patriots are going to lean a little heavier on Stevan Ridley and Brady’s numbers just aren’t going to be at the same level as Brees, Rodgers and Manning. I think Matt Ryan is about to break out and join the ranks of the best QB’s in the league. He has all kinds of weapons on his side and the addition of Steven Jackson is going to be bigger than people realize. Ryan is calm, cool and collected and he is going to lead his team to the top of the NFC this year. He doesn’t had the credibility like the Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees have just yet so he probably won’t win the award this year but he could. Aaron Rodgers is a machine and he just keeps churning out 4000 yard seasons and winning games week after week. He may be a victim of his own success as he has set the bar so high for himself or it could be that Peyton Manning is just going to have that good of a year.
My pick: QB Peyton Manning Denver Broncos
Manning was fantastic last season coming off sitting out a year and rehabbing an injury. No one knew if the Peyton of old was still around or not and he proved he is. This year he is even stronger coming off his neck issues and he has Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and now Wes Welker to throw to. None of the Denver TE’s played particularly well last year and none have distinguished themselves this pre-season but it doesn’t matter because John Elway went out and added the best slot receiver in the league. Welker probably isn’t going to catch 120 passes like he would in New England but that is more a byproduct of Thomas and Decker being so good and Manning being able to spread it around. Manning is going to guide his team through the first six games of the year while they are missing Von Miller and then when he gets back the Broncos are going to be frighteningly good. The All-World QB of the best team of the regular season is a pretty safe bet to win the MVP. *If Adrian Peterson rushes for 2500 yards all bets are off.
Offensive Player of the Year
Contenders: The same 6 guys I just listed for MVP are a pretty good bet to put up ridiculous offensive numbers. Also throw in; QB Robert Griffin III, QB Michael Vick, WR Calvin Johnson
My Dark Horse Candidate: RB Doug Martin
If any of the QB’s; Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning or Ryan throw for 5000 yards they are going to be right in the conversation but if they don’t cross that threshold they will all be victims of their past success (except for Ryan) and they won’t win this award. RGIII and Michael Vick both have the potential to put up big passing and rushing numbers if they could stay on the field for 16 games but that seems unlikely. Calvin Johnson is the only WR in the league that can dominate so much that he puts himself in this conversation and if he gets 2000 yards receiving (he had 1964 last year) he’s got a chance. The only thing holding him back last year was his 5 whole TD’s, that won’t get it done. Doug Martin might prove to be the best two-way RB in the league this year and 2500 yards from scrimmage is well within his reach. Tampa Bay has to have a good year to get Martin on people’s radar but he might put up video game like numbers and get some notice himself.
My Pick: RB Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings
If Peterson is healthy he is a shoe-in for 1800 rushing yards and has a legitimate shot at 2000 but unlike last year he’s team may pull him down in the MVP voting. Last season the Vikings weren’t expected to be very good and they finished 10-6 and Peterson got a lot of credit for that and won the MVP. The MVP usually goes to an offensive player and many times the Offensive Player of the Year Award (which isn’t talked about much) is given to a player who put up great numbers on a team with a not so great record. I think the Vikings are going to disappoint this year and if Peterson goes for 2000 yards and the Vikings go 6-10 he’s almost guaranteed to get Offensive Player of the Year and not MVP.
Defensive Player of the Year
There is no telling who will pop up when it comes to this award. JJ Watt is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but this is a tough one to repeat and going into last season I don’t think anybody had Watt in the top ten contenders so I won’t try to make a list.
I had every intention of choosing LB Von Miller of the Broncos for this award and then he went and got suspended for the first six games of the season. He’s a great player but he’s going to have to have an unbelievable 10 games if he’s going to pull this off and I’m not counting on it. Guys with lots of sacks or lots of interceptions tend to get the most notice so DE’s, OLB’s and CB’s are probably the best bet which is why I liked Miller. CB Richard Sherman from the Seahawks likes to claim he’s the best corner in the league and he might just be but I don’t think he’ll win it. Geno Atkins from the Bengals is one of the best DT’s in the league but DT’s don’t get a lot of notice but if he were to have a JJ Watt type of impact he could come out of nowhere. Watt won it playing DE in a 3-4 defense which is unusual because it’s not usually a high sack number position but he made it one and if he could repeat last year he could pull it off again but it’s unlikely. I love MLB’s Patrick Willis from San Francisco and Brian Cushing from Houston but they may get outshined by teammates that put up big stats. DE Cameron Wake from Miami should put up a huge sack total this year as he is usually near the top of the leader board and this year he has rookie DE Dion Jordan taking some of the pressure off of him. The Dolphins would have to have a pretty good season for Wake to get the credit he deserves and I don’t see them being great.
My Pick: OLB Aldon Smith San Francisco 49ers
The league’s best defense resides in San Francisco and while Patrick Willis and Justin Smith are the heart and soul of that defense it’s Aldon Smith that is going to put up the numbers. Smith is an excellent pass rusher and he could lead the league in that category at any time. He’s become a much better overall LB and while the 49ers have a number of great players (Willis, Justin Smith and Navorro Bowman) it’s Aldon Smith that will get the most recognition.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: RB Eddie Lacy, RB LeVeon Bell, RB Giovani Bernard, QB EJ Manuel, WR Tavon Austin, WR DeAndre Hopkins
My Dark Horse Candidates: WR Keenan Allen and WR Kenbrell Thompkins
The injury to DuJuan Harris gives Eddie Lacy a huge opportunity and the injury to LeVeon Bell may cost him his best opportunity. Lacy becomes the top back in Green Bay by default with Harris being put on IR. Bell looked like the top back in Pittsburgh until a foot injury sidelined him, luckily for Bell and the Steelers the injury doesn’t look as bad as initially thought but it means he may have to play catch up entering the season. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith look like the only rookie starting QB’s and with the Jets offense I don’t see Smith being a factor in the ROY race. Manuel is coming back from an injury but it looks like he’ll be okay and the Bills offense has enough weapons to help Manuel put up points but he may unfairly be measured against last year’s rookie QB class and he won’t measure up. WR Tavon Austin can be a playmaker but Chris Givens has stepped up to be Sam Bradford’s top target meaning Austin probably won’t put up the consistent numbers needed to be a player in the ROY race. WR DeAndre Hopkins is going to be the compliment to Andre Johnson and in the Texans’ offense that should mean plenty of opportunities and Hopkins has looked great in the preseason. My first dark horse is WR Keenan Allen of the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers do not look good but some key injuries and the axing of Robert Meachem means there will be ample opportunities for Allen to step up at WR. Allen has a ton of talent and he could shine because Phillip Rivers is going to have to throw to somebody. The other dark horse is undrafted gem WR Kenbrell Thompkins and if he wins this award he has to give it Tom Brady.
My Pick: RB Giovani Bernard Cincinnati Bengals
I have been talking about Bernard since before the draft when he wasn’t even on a team. Now he’s on a team where he only has to beat out BenJarvus Green-Ellis for carries and while the Bengals will still use Green-Ellis because he is reliable Bernard is the playmaker the Bengals need. Bernard’s size and skill set reminds me of Ray Rice and he can be that good. The Bengals are looking for someone to give their offense a spark and take some pressure off of Andy Dalton and AJ Green and they found it in the best back in the draft.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: LB Jarvis Jones, LB Alec Ogletree, DT Star Lotulelei, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DE Dion Jordan, CB Dee Milliner, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Desmond Trufant
My Dark Horse Pick: LB Sio Moore
Jarvis Jones would be the runaway winner of this award if he stays completely healthy all season but he couldn’t even stay healthy through the preseason and is still battling Jason Worilds at OLB so I’m not picking him. DT Star Lotulelei is a devastating talent but he plays for the Panthers and their defense is likely to be bad and that makes it hard for a DT to stand out. DE’s Ezekiel Ansah and Dion Jordan are both in situations that could lead to nice sack numbers for each of them. Ansah is playing on a defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly and Jordan will be the pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake meaning both will be facing a lot of one-on-one blocking. CB Dee Milliner is a starter for the Jets and teams will likely target him instead of Antonio Cromartie meaning he could make plays that will get him noticed. S Kenny Vaccaro is a player the Saints need to make a difference and if he does he will be a ROY candidate for sure. LB Sio Moore could be the one bright spot on an otherwise underwhelming Raiders defense. Moore was a third round draft pick and he could be a big playmaker on a defense that won’t have many of them. If Ogletree can keep his character concerns from derailing his immense talent then he might just be the best rookie defender in the league this year. So far in the preseason he has shown why everyone was in love with his talent now he just has to prove the Rams were right to have faith in him.
My Pick: CB Desmond Trufant Atlanta Falcons
Trufant didn’t have the hype of Dee Milliner or the size of Xavier Rhodes but he is the best cover corner from this draft and he is starting for a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons lost Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson in the offseason so Trufant steps in opposite Asante Samuel and he is going to go up against some very good QB’s this season. Luckily he has to practice every day against Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones meaning some Sundays are going to be a welcome break for him. Usually CB’s have to put up big interception numbers to win individual awards but playing for such a high profile team will help Trufant get noticed even if teams avoid throwing his way.
Bold and Not-So-Bold Predictions for the 2013 Season (and some random thoughts)
– Despite the fact that no RBs were taken in the first round of the 2013 Draft that doesn’t mean rookie RBs won’t play a huge part for many teams. Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball and LeVeon Bell will all be playing for playoff or near playoff teams. Christine Michael (Seahawks), Knile Davis (Kansas City) and Zac Stacy (St. Louis) will all be important backups but there are two other tailbacks that could be very important. Joseph Randle and Stepfan Taylor could prove to be major players if injuries strike DeMarco Murray and Rashard Mendenhall again. Dallas and Arizona made two solid picks late in the draft that could pay huge dividends.
– Jacksonville, Oakland, NY Jets, Buffalo and San Diego will be the five worst teams in the NFL this season. Yes there is a decided AFC slant here and truthfully the only NFC team I can see challenging these five is Carolina with Philadelphia being a possibility given their terrible defense. If Michael Vick gets hurt or isn’t as good as he’s looked in preseason then Philly’s defense could be spend too much time on the field and be epically bad.
– The NFC is the tougher conference top to bottom and a team with a 10-6 record will miss the playoffs in that conference. In the AFC there is a decided split between the great, the not so good and the really bad. New England, Denver, Cincinnati and Houston should dominate the conference while Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Miami, Tennessee and a surprising Cleveland will battle for the wild card spots. The other five are all playing for Jadeveon Clowney and Teddy Bridgewater.
– Rex Ryan won’t make it through the season as head coach of the New York Jets (like I said some of these are not-so-bold predictions). The Jets are so desperate they are grabbing almost every castoff QB they can, first it was Graham Harrell and now it’s Brady Quinn. Mark Sanchez is hurt and he may be put on IR and miss the season, lucky him. Geno Smith isn’t ready to be a starter but the Jets have no choice but to start him. Matt Simms has actually looked better but he hasn’t faced a NFL first team defense yet either. Marty Mornhinweg is on board as the offensive coordinator and will be the future interim head coach for the franchise. Complete coaching staff overhaul to follow after the season.
– Danny Amendola will play in all 16 games and lead the league in receptions. Okay this is part prediction and part prayer. The Patriots need Amendola’s considerable talent to stay on the field and replace Wes Welker’s production. Amendola has only scratched the surface of what he can be and he will be fun to watch playing with Brady.
– Carson Palmer will have a great year throwing the football. Arizona will be improved as Bruce Arians downfield passing attack will make Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts shine. Unfortunately for the Cardinals their division is murder’s row and their record won’t be great but Cardinal fans will enjoy the aerial show. It won’t quite reach Kurt Warner territory but the nightmare of Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer will just be a bad memory.
– The Bengals make a run to the top of their division and Marvin Lewis wins Coach of the Year. I didn’t give this award a full breakdown because Coach of the Year is such a strange category. It usually goes to the guy who does the most with the least expectations. Rarely does the best coach win it just a guy who does a good job coaching up his team. Marvin Lewis gets the recognition but Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons also deserves some credit.
– Big money free agent WR Mike Wallace will be a disappointment in Miami as he isn’t quite the deep threat the Dolphins hope he will be. That coupled with the loss of TE Dustin Keller to an injury and RB Reggie Bush to free agency means a lot of pressure falls on Ryan Tannehill and new RB Lamar Miller. The defense keeps the Dolphins in games and Tannehill plays fine but the offensive keeps them out of the playoffs.
– RGIII plays in all 16 games this season…wait I said bold predictions not idiotic ones…never mind.
– Andrew Luck finishes the season with the third most passing yards on the year. Only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees finish ahead of him. Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Darrius Heyward-Bey give Luck three good WRs along with Dwayne Allen (once he’s healthy) and Coby Fleener at TE to make the Colts passing attack seriously good. That along with the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw will be done for the year in about week 5 leaving them with no running game meaning Luck’s numbers could be ridiculous.
– Jerry Jones fires Jason Garrett half way through the season and names himself head coach…Roger Goodell doesn’t find it funny either and says “Sorry Jerry you can’t do that”, but Cowboys fans are even less amused when Bill Callahan is actually named interim head coach. (You’ll have to figure out for yourself if I’m kidding about this.)
– The Raiders apparently decided not to try to break the record for holding penalties in a season so they cut Alex Barron, from starter to free agent in less than a week. Even the Raiders knew it was too obvious of a tank job to let Barron protect the QB’s blind side. Oh and their life insurance rates on their QBs would have been astronomical. Instead they are starting a guy who has only played football for a few years and had never played LT until the last preseason game. I guess Terrelle Pryor’s punishment for everything that happened at Ohio St. will finally be served.
– I will win both of the Fantasy Football leagues I’m in. That’s not really a bold prediction more of an inevitable fact.
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