2013 NFL Preview AFC
AFC East
Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms, EJ Manuel, Kevin Kolb (sort of), Jeff Tuel and Matt Leinart; these are the 11 reasons why I’m sure the Patriots will win this division. These are all of the QB’s on the rosters of the other three teams in the division. Tom Brady is so far ahead of these guys I don’t care if the Patriots dust off Troy Brown at WR I’m not betting against Brady in this division. The truth is that not only do the Patriots have the best QB in the division they have the 3rd best QB in the division. Seriously, other than Ryan Tannehill, do you think there is a single QB on that list that the Patriots would trade Ryan Mallett straight up for? If the Jets called Bill Belichick tomorrow and offered Geno Smith straight up for Mallett Belichick would laugh and hang up.
*Last minute edit: the Jets signed former Green Bay back-up Graham Harrell, somehow I don’t think Belichick and Brady are worried.
New England Patriots:
Tom Brady obviously gives the Patriots the decided advantage in this division but that isn’t all they have. Steven Ridley was exactly what the offense needed last year as an every down back and this year Shane Vereen looks completely capable of replacing Danny Woodhead’s production. Danny Amendola could catch 120 passes this year if he plays 16 games and come on he has to stay healthy one of these years right? Brady is going to make Kenbrell Thompkins a very rich in about 4 years when he’s a free agent and someone overpays him and then realizes they don’t have Tom Brady throwing to him. The defense will be good but the secondary will likely be their undoing in the playoffs again. As you can tell from the QB’s in their division having a bad secondary won’t hurt them as much in the regular season but things get a little tougher in the post season.
Miami Dolphins:
Teams that spend a boatload of money in free agency trying to right the ship rarely accomplish the goal. Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller (already injured), Brandon Gibson, Dannell Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler and Brent Grimes were all signed and I give the Dolphins credit because most of these guys are coming into their prime years but history is not on their side. All of the progress they hope to make on offense with Wallace and Gibson may be undone by the fact that they let Jake Long and their one offensive weapon from last year Reggie Bush walk. Jonathan Martin has struggled moving to Long’s old position at LT and Wallace’s deep speed won’t do any good if Tannehill is lying in a heap three seconds after taking the snap. Lamar Miller has failed to seize the RB position from the soon-to-be-injured (I’m just assuming the inevitable) Daniel Thomas making the offense even more suspect. The defense could be good, there is serious potential on that side of the ball but it will all be for nothing if they can’t stay off the field.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills QB position is more tragic while the Jets QB position is just comical and the Bills are far less of mess everywhere else so they finish above the Jets. EJ Manuel had a procedure on his knee that might keep him out the first and Kevin Kolb sustained another concussion that might end his career (nothing funny about either of those things). This leaves the Bills with undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel who went 4-22 as a starter at Washington St. and newly signed Matt Leinart as their options to possibly start week 1…against New England. Good luck guys. More good news…the Bills have lost their best CB Stephon Gilmore for the foreseeable future. I would accuse the Bills of tanking the season but this is just bad luck, a lot of bad luck. Doug Marrone must be wondering if he can get his Syracuse job back.
New York Jets:
If Jerry Seinfeld, Bill Cosby and Johnny Carson got together they couldn’t write something this funny. The Jets pass on Geno Smith twice in the first round of the draft and somehow he falls to them in the second round so they take him but they don’t hand him the starting job, it’s a “competition”. Smith is slightly injured so he doesn’t play much and of course Mark Sanchez still can’t wrap up the job. Smith finally plays in the “dress rehearsal” third pre-season game and proceeds to throw 3 picks and runs out of the back of the end zone accidently for a safety. Rex Ryan then puts Sanchez into a game he didn’t think he was going to play in, behind a horrific second team offensive line, and Sanchez gets hammered into the ground and hurts his shoulder. Fourth string QB Matt Simms comes in and looks like Dan Marino compared to these two and he’s probably going to get cut next week. Don’t worry they have Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell at tailback and their top WR is Jeremy Kerley…wait, never mind… even if they had Dan Marino they would still finish last. The good news is that the defense has some really nice players the new coaching staff next year can build a 4-3 defense around. The Jets are taking tanking to a new level too bad the Jaguars and the Raiders are trying it too.
AFC North
Baltimore and Pittsburgh have owned this division for so long people forget who the other two teams are but that is about to change. The Bengals are poised to finally step up as the Steelers and Ravens take small steps back and the Browns are…well…still the Browns. The Bengals have coaching stability (the only head coach more tenured then Marvin Lewis is Bill Belichick), a solid QB with some really nice weapons and a killer defense. Baltimore won the Super Bowl and while I think they did fine replacing Ray Lewis and Ed Reed it’s the trade of Anquan Boldin and the injury to Dennis Pitta that will come back to bite them. The Steelers aren’t rebuilding but they are retooling around some younger guys.
Cincinnati Bengals:
It’s not just Marvin Lewis that gives the Bengals coaching stability they return offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, continuity goes a long way which is the reason the Ravens and Steelers have been so good for so long and the Brown haven’t. Andy Dalton has one of the great emerging WR’s in the NFL in AJ Green and the Bengals got those two some help in the draft with TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard. Bernard will eventually usurp BenJarvus Green-Ellis at tailback and Eifert offers a different look then Jermaine Gresham, a nice weapon in his own right. The Bengals defense rarely gets mentioned with top defenses in the league but they are right there. Geno Atkins is the most underrated destructive force in football; no one talks about him except opposing players that are trying to figure out how to block him. The Bengals aren’t just a force in their division they could make serious noise in the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens:
When you lose two Hall of Famers on your defense you should expect to take a step back but when said Hall of Famers weren’t exactly playing at their peak last year it makes replacing them much easier. Veteran LB Daryl Smith was brought in and while he won’t do the flashy pre-game dance Ray Lewis did he is more than capable of replacing his production on the field. Ed Reed wasn’t himself even when he played last year and while Michael Huff is never going to be Ed Reed at his finest he can be better than Reed was last year. This is the Ravens defense and it will be good again. I can’t say the same for the offense. Without Boldin and Pitta too much of the receiving burden falls on Torrey Smith and while the signings of Brandon Stokly and Dallas Clark would have been excellent in 2005 it’s not enough in 2013. Joe Flacco got paid like a franchise QB this offseason but I have yet to see him turn middling WR’s into stars like Tom Brady does which means a lot rides on the legs of Ray Rice.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
This just seems like a transitional year for the Steelers. Casey Hampton is officially gone, James Harrison was let go, Rashard Mendenhall left, Mike Wallace got paid by someone else and Troy Polamalu has to be on his last legs. The Steelers are counting on a couple of rookies to come up big; LeVeon Bell at RB and Jarvis Jones at OLB except both are banged up. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer can hold the fort at RB but they don’t scare anyone. Jason Worilds is just a guy at OLB until Jones can be healthy and productive. The biggest impact rookie could be WR Markus Wheaton as he steps in as the third receiver, Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders have moved into the starting roles but Wheaton is a player. The Steelers won’t be bad, they rarely ever are, but I don’t see them competing at the top of the AFC.
Cleveland Browns:
Stability is just a theory in Cleveland as they once again got a new team President, GM, head coach and coaching staff. The good news is that Mike Lombardi is a bright personnel guy, Rod Chudzinski is solid head coaching hire and coordinators Norv Turner and Ray Horton are top notch. This team has some great looking players but no one has been able to get the whole to add up to the sum of its parts. There is great potential in RB Trent Richardson, WR Josh Gordon, WR Greg Little and TE Jordan Cameron while LT Joe Thomas is one of the best in the league. The front seven on defense looks fantastic but other than CB Joe Haden the secondary needs an overhaul. SS TJ Ward is okay and Leon McFadden might be a good nickel corner but that isn’t enough. This team also looks like it’s again starting the season with six losses as their division is so tough. This franchise needs to finally stick to a plan and it looks like they may actually be doing that this time.
AFC South
The Texans have finally figured out how to win a lot during the regular season and now they just have to figure out how to do it in the playoffs. Andrew Luck is the reason teams are tanking this year to try to get Teddy Bridgewater because nothing saves a franchise like a franchise QB. Tennessee invested heavily on the interior of their offensive line hoping Chris Johnson will rediscover his mojo and the Jacksonville Jaguars named the injured Blaine Gabbert their week 1 starter because they decided not to hide the fact that they are tanking. The don’t care whether it’s Teddy Bridgewater or Jadeveon Clowney that they get they just know they need one of the top two picks in the 2014 draft.
Houston Texans:
It took them a decade and about twenty tries but it finally looks like the Texans found a WR to compliment and actually lessen the burden on Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins is the man. Arian Foster hasn’t played in the pre-season but that’s not unusual and Ben Tate has looked healthy and fantastic and if he can stay that way the Texans won’t miss a beat in the 3 or 4 games Foster sits out this season (you don’t have to be clairvoyant to know Foster won’t play 16 games). The return of Brian Cushing is fantastic news for the defense, JJ Watt may be the reigning Defensive Player of the Year but Cushing is the leader of that defense and they missed him more than people realized when he was injured last year. The one hole on defense the Texans are crossing their fingers over is free safety, they signed Ed Reed away from the Ravens and they hope he can squeeze one last season out of his considerable talent.
Indianapolis Colts:
So Peyton Manning gets injured and the Colts know they have to move on so they play Curtis Painter and some other schmucks at QB, win two games and end up with Andrew Luck who leads them to 11 wins his rookie year. See tanking does work when there is a genuine franchise QB waiting in the draft (sorry Kansas City). Luck is so good he has made Darrius Heyward-Bey look like a legitimate NFL WR in the pre-season. The addition of Ahmad Bradshaw could be huge if he can stay on the field. The defense was adequate last year and while there have been a few changes it looks like they can be just as good this year. The Colts do face a tougher schedule then they did last year so they may not win 11 games again but they will be good as long as Luck is lining up under center.
Tennessee Titans:
The Titans spent big money on LG Andy Levitre and a first round pick on RG Chance Warmack and these two are doing exactly what they wanted which is open holes for Chris Johnson to run through. The also signed Shonn Greene to take over as the short yardage/goal line back a job that Johnson does not excel at. It is time for Jake Locker to step up and prove the Titans were right to take him so high in the draft and he has no excuses left. The offensive line is fixed, Johnson and Greene should provide a legitimate running game and so far Kenny Britt isn’t injured or suspended (either of those things could change at any second). The defense is hoping that last year’s free agent DE Kamerion Wimbley will provide the pass rush he was supposed to bring last year but that seems unlikely. Without a better pass rush this defense is middle-of-the-pack at best but that’s good enough to keep them ahead of Jacksonville.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
The Jaguars are taking the position that they are going to give Blaine Gabbert every chance to prove he is their QB of the future…in other words they know he sucks and he’s the best chance they have at picking in the top two in next year’s draft. They know the worst case scenario if they finish in the bottom two of the league is they either get Gabbert’s replacement in Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater or they get the pass rushing DE they have desperately needed for years now in Jadeveon Clowney from South Carolina. The only thing worse than the Gabbert led offense is the atrocious defense they Jags have assembled. New head coach Gus Bradley worked with a great no-name defense in Seattle but those unknown players were actually good, the best player on the Jaguars defense is….give me minute…I’m sorry I need another minute, hold on…Paul Posluszny? Yeah I’m going with that. This tank job could backfire if both Clowney and Bridgewater (who both will still have eligibility left) decide they would rather stay in college and play for free than get paid to play for the Jaguars.
AFC West
The Peyton Manning led Broncos should own this division with the only possible threat coming from Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs had six Pro Bowlers last season in what has to be the best argument for discontinuing that game. Kansas City had the misfortune of finally earning the #1 pick in the draft in a year where there was no franchise QB to take. The Chargers are breaking in a new coaching staff while trying to get Phillip Rivers killed behind either King Dunlap or Max Starks at LT. The Raiders are trying to out tank the Jaguars by not deciding on a QB and having their best offensive lineman LT Jared Veldheer lost for the season without a viable back-up.
Denver Broncos:
Peyton Manning has never had it so easy in a division race. The Broncos will be missing superstar LB Von Miller for the first six games of the season and they could still have this division wrapped up before December. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker give Manning an unrivaled top 3 WR corps and between Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno they should be able to find a running game. The defense will miss Miller and free agent loss Elvis Dumervil but even a middle-of-the-pack defense is enough for this team to win 13 games with their offense against the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs:
The Chiefs finish second in this division by default. They should be solid but not spectacular which is pretty much what will be written on QB Alex Smith’s tombstone someday. Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are the only playmakers on offense unless Andy Reid can devise a way to make Dexter McCluster an actual weapon. The Chiefs defense has a chance to be very good with pass rushing OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston bringing pressure and a secondary with talent like Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Eric Berry. Reid has assembled a good coaching staff and they will get more out of the talent on this team than the previous staffs did. Alex Smith is good enough to be a winning QB in the NFL but only if he has a great running game and a stellar defense. The Chiefs aren’t there just yet but they are on the right track.
San Diego Chargers:
The good news is that the weather is always nice in San Diego. Sorry that’s all I got. The Chargers do have the second best QB in this division the problem is he can’t complete passes while lying on the ground. They signed free agents King Dunlap and Max Starks to compete at LT and there was a reason these two were available. Dunlap hasn’t been completely terrible in the pre-season but I wouldn’t expect him to hold up over an entire year. Top WR Danario Alexander was lost for the year already and Malcolm Floyd is banged up. Ryan Mathews has looked solid in the pre-season but he’s still Ryan Mathews so expectations shouldn’t be set too high. The Chargers lost their one big playmaker on defense before training camp even got going when Melvin Ingram tore up his knee and now they are counting on Dwight Freeney to provide the pass rush so don’t expect that to work out very well. The depth on this team is suspect at best and if they didn’t have Phillip Rivers in his prime years they would be in full rebuilding mode instead they are stuck in no man’s land.
Oakland Raiders:
The only team with a chance to out suck the Jaguars is the Oakland Raiders. They traded for Matt Flynn to be their QB and now it looks like they may hand the reigns to Terrelle Pryor instead. Flynn may actually be the lucky one here because when they lost their starting LT for the season their first option was to plug in Alex Barron aka The Human Holding Penalty. At least Pryor has the athleticism to run away from the onslaught of pass rushers that will be running past Barron when he fails to hold onto them. The best skill position player on the Raiders is RB Darren McFadden but he isn’t going anywhere behind an offensive line featuring Barron and Khalif Barnes at the OT position. Seriously, the other starting skill position players are WR Denarius Moore (he should be someone’s #3 slot receiver), WR Rod Streater (not kidding) and TE Richard Gordon (who’s trying to prove not all Miami TE’s are great). The Raiders offense is a joke and their defense is even worse. Charles Woodson is probably the best player on their defense and that was fine in 2003 but this is 2013.
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