2013 NFL Preview NFC
NFC East
What happens when an entire division goes 8-8? The NFC East is the reason why I’m not going to predict overall records just the order I suspect the teams to finish in the division. There is something I love and something I hate about each one of these teams and this division will be decided by which team puts it together on both sides of the football first.
Washington Redskins:
Mike Shananhan struck gold twice in the 2012 Draft with Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris and he covered the team’s collective ass when he spent another pick on QB Kirk Cousins. Washington says they are going to dial down Griffin’s running but I’ll believe that when I see it, luckily for them 12 or 13 games of Griffin with 3 or 4 games of Cousins should work just fine. Pierre Garcon is huge addition to the offense after he missed most of last year with injuries. The defense still could have issues but a healthy Brian Orakpo would make a world of difference. The loss of rookie FS Phillip Thomas hurts more than anyone realizes as he could have been a playmaker in the secondary.
New York Giants:
They have Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle and Brandon Myers so the passing game should be fine. An injury to their center shuffled their line moving David Diehl inside and putting rookie first round draft pick Justin Pugh at RT and that’s a serious upgrade. Manning would have gotten killed with Diehl at RT, he was a turnstile there and that’s an insult to turnstiles because at least they put up a little resistance. They are hoping David Wilson lives up to his potential and if he does they will be tough offensively. The Giants defense was ravaged by injury last year and a return to health would be huge. Unfortunately I still don’t like their LB’s and in a division with Alfred Morris, LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick and DeMarco Murray (at least until he’s hurt) having subpar LB’s is a problem
Dallas Cowboys:
Monte Kiffin deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame for the way he has already gotten the defense to step up in their transition. Kiffin hasn’t been beholden to his Tampa-2 principles so much that he’s not utilizing the talent he has on hand. He has let his CB’s play man-to-man to take advantage of their skills. We will see how it all holds up throughout the season but Monte Kiffin’s genius is back, it’s surprising none of it rubbed off on his son. Tony Romo has plenty of weapons; Dez Bryant (primed for a huge year), Miles Austin (finally healthy?), Jason Witten (one of the best TE’s in football) and DeMarco Murray (at least for the first few weeks). Unfortunately the Cowboys offensive line is still in trouble and I don’t know if they can save it this late. I still fully expect Murray to be hurt by week 5 and eventually Joseph Randle will be the running back. They have other running backs that have been there but Randle’s talent will take him up the depth chart eventually.
Philadelphia Eagles:
Chip Kelly is an offensive genius and with a healthy and productive offensive line and Michael Vick the Eagles offense has hummed right along during the preseason despite losing a couple of good WR’s. However, Chip Kelly’s genius has its limits and unless this team wins a lot of games 42-35 it could be a tough year. Philadelphia’s transition to the 3-4 defense has been rough to say the least and the only reason they might not rank last in pass defense is because it looks like they are going to give up about a 250 yards rushing a game. Quick fantasy note: if you need a RB for a week and the guy starting against the Eagles is available take him, I don’t care who he is, pick him up.
NFC North
This is the Packers division to lose and the only way they don’t win it is if one of the other teams plays out of their minds. The Bears have new coaches, the Lions were awful last year and the Vikings have Christian Ponder at QB. I think it’s the Packers and then everyone else fighting for second so don’t hold me to this predicted order of finish after the Pack.
Green Bay Packers:
When in doubt go with the best QB and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best in the league not just his division. The only thing that unravels this team is a bad offensive line. The loss of Bryan Bulaga is going to be tough because he was looking like a beast at LT before the injury. They are so convinced Marshall Newhouse isn’t the answer that they left him at RT and are giving rookie David Bakhtiari every chance at the LT job. Eddie Lacy should finally give Rodgers a running game to rely on too. If Nick Perry can step up and give just a semblance of a pass rush opposite Clay Matthews the defense could be good. Stability in the coaching staff and the best QB gives the division to the Packers.
Detroit Lions:
This team is like the Eagles for me; I like their offense but hate the defense. I think Reggie Bush may be the most underrated addition in the offseason for anyone in the league. Last season Matthew Stafford had one weapon, Calvin Johnson, and everyone knew it. I think we see the Bush from New Orleans in terms of his use more than the every down back he was in Miami and that’s a good thing. While Johnson is taking the defense deep to cover him Stafford can get Bush the ball in space and let him work. The defense scares me though. The defensive line should be good but the linebackers and the secondary are suspect. The Lions secondary has been terrible for years and they seem to ignore it year after year. Darius Slay would be a nice nickel CB but he’s already listed as a starter. He wasn’t even the best starting CB on his college team last season (he was teammates with Buccaneer’s rookie Jonathan Banks).
Chicago Bears:
Jay Cutler has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett as weapons in new coach Marc Trestman’s offense, that’s the good news. The bad news is that his best offensive lineman is Jermon Bushrod. Bushrod is barely an upgrade at LT over new RT J’Marcus Webb, Matt Slauson and Kyle Long should be an upgrade at the guard spots but I still think Cutler is going to end up on his back far too often. The Bears defense should be okay for another year but replacing the 35 year old Brian Urlacher with the 31 year old DJ Williams isn’t exactly what I had in mind for the defense getting younger. Of course DJ Williams already got hurt and now rookie Jon Bostic will likely start at MLB. New coaching staff, old defense and suspect offensive line means this season could end up in the playoffs or it could completely implode. I think it’s going to be a long year for Bears fans.
Minnesota Vikings:
The Vikings have the best RB in the NFL, they have the best offensive line in this division and their defense should be fine, not great but fine. There is one reason why I’m picking them last in the division…Christian Ponder. The only QB in the league that is hoping his new top WR has lost a step because he knows he can’t throw it far enough for him if he hasn’t. Matt Cassel may have gone from being the most unpopular guy in Kansas City to being the most popular guy in Minneapolis, at least until he has to play then Vikings fans will learn to hate him just as much. Adrian Peterson says he’s going for 2500 yards this year, well he better because with Ponder playing his usual 12 games and Cassel subbing in the other four that Ponder misses due to injury the Vikings are going to need AD (yes that’s his nickname, it’s stands for All Day) to get every one of those 2500 yards. And just to be clear yes I think last year was a fluke I don’t see the Vikings going 10-6 this year, so they will probably win the division.
NFC South
The Falcons and the Saints should be the cream of the crop here with the return of Sean Payton getting the Saints back on track. Neither team has a great defense but both offenses should be able to make up the difference. Tampa Bay needs the schizophrenic Josh Freeman to settle in and the Panthers need a new defense.
Atlanta Falcons:
This is the NFC team I’m rooting for this season and if the Patriots can’t win the Super Bowl I hope the Falcons do and it’s all because of Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez was going to retire but he’s still playing at an elite level and this team is so close to Super Bowl contention he couldn’t pass up the chance. Replacing Michael Turner with Steven Jackson is a serious upgrade to the offense and the only concern on that side of the ball is the right side of the offensive line. I really would have liked to see the Falcons get a guy like Eric Winston at RT but I think their offense will still be great. The Falcons need Osi Umenyiora to find his pass rush again and Desmond Trufant should really help in the secondary. The defense just has to be average and the offense can carry this team.
New Orleans Saints:
What a difference a head coach makes. The return of Sean Payton is the biggest addition to a team that simply needs to forget last year. The addition of Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator is the second biggest. Ryan knows how to make a defense and while he’s trying to convert this defense I think he can make it work. Drew Brees will have the offense moving right along with Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Darren Sproles if they could get anything out of Mark Ingram that would be a bonus. It’s the defense that is the question mark, they haven’t been good in quite some time and Ryan needs to get the personnel to fit his 3-4 scheme. The recent loss of Will Smith, their best pass rusher hurts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Greg Schiano experiment is in full effect now and it has a chance to be a huge success or it could be Chernobyl. Josh Freeman wilted under the high expectations last season and the defense suffered multiple injuries and secondary was just plain bad. Replacing 75% of the starting secondary was a good start as only SS Mark Barron returns. Big acquisitions Derrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson should pay immediate dividends and the healthy return of DE’s Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers is of the utmost importance. Freeman has to figure out which QB he really is because with the exception of TE he has some great weapons around him. Doug Martin proved to be a great RB last season and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a very good starting duo at WR. The offensive line is solid so this offense will go as far as Freeman takes it, unless Schiano pulls the plug and hands the reigns to rookie Mike Glennon. If that happens Buccaneer fans should duck and cover.
Carolina Panthers:
I look at the Panthers offensive depth chart and with the exception of the right side of the offensive line it looks fine, but that’s on paper. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the backfield means you should have a running game but it just doesn’t work out that way on the field. Cam Newton was supposed to revolutionize the QB position and then came RGIII, he’s like the new version of the iPhone. By the way, Andrew Luck will win a Super Bowl before either of these two. I’m not kidding, name the last running QB to win a Super Bowl? No really, I’ll wait…don’t say Steve Young, he stopped running long before he won a Super Bowl that’s why he threw for 6 TD’s in that game. Sorry, tangent over. The Panthers defense has the mighty Luke Kuechly in the middle flanked by two guys made out of tissue paper, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason. The defensive line looks okay with the addition of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short but the secondary is atrocious. When Drayton Florence is your best CB you are beyond needing help you need a complete overhaul.
NFC West
All media outlets were apparently contractually obligated to refer to this division as the “toughest division in the National Football League” this season. I’d disagree if I actually disagreed but they’re right. San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick all year and that defense, Seattle with Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and their defense, St. Louis is likely to be the most improved team of the year and even the Cardinals look like they can put up a fight.
San Francisco 49ers:
It’s tough to go against the defending NFC Champions when they return almost everyone of note. They are going to miss Michael Crabtree until comes back (if he can come back at the end of the year) but let’s be honest he’s Michael Crabtree not Jerry Rice. I think Jim Harbaugh is going to get creative with Kaepernick and make this offense a tough match up. Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, a great offensive line, Frank Gore and a stable of running backs to rely on will carry this offense. The defense is built on great players like Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, and Navarro Bowman and it is the best defense in the league.
Seattle Seahawks:
The Seahawks are going to give the 49ers all they can handle in this division and their team is stacked to do it. They better hope that Russell Wilson stays healthy though because their back-up QB’s are Tavaris Jackson and Brady Quinn, even Marshawn Lynch can’t carry an offense led by either of those two. Wilson is a playmaker, he buys time with his feet and finds the open man down field. They already lost their big offensive acquisition of the year Percy Harvin but it looks like Golden Tate is finally ready to live up to his considerable talent and become the go-to WR on this team. Their defense is built off of no-name players that play lights out together. Richard Sherman became the big name last year due to his big mouth and he’s penchant for backing up his words with his play. Somehow during his time at USC Pete Carroll learned to coach and his rivalry with Jim Harbaugh is highly entertaining.
St. Louis Rams:
Chris Givens, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and especially Jake Long have become Sam Bradford’s new best friends on the Rams roster. Givens was there last year but he has really stepped up this year. Austin brings a game-breaking ability this offense has been lacking. Jared Cook is the first real pass catching threat Bradford has had in his pro career and Jake Long will finally give Bradford some peace protecting his blindside. Daryl Richardson flashed last season and has staked his claim to the RB job this fall and he should be fine. The Rams defense was better than you probably realized last season and they added one of the biggest playmaking LB’s in the draft, Alec Ogletree is going to be a star (if he stays out of trouble).
Arizona Cardinals:
Levi Brown returning healthy at LT and the addition of Eric Winston at RT should be enough to help keep new QB Carson Palmer upright and that should make a passing game with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts pretty potent. Brown isn’t an elite LT but he’s a considerable upgrade over last year’s LT’s. If they can keep Palmer off his back he should be perfect in Bruce Arians downfield passing attack. Rashard Mendenhall might get hurt and Ryan Williams is always hurt so it’s a good thing they drafted dark horse rookie RB Stepfan Taylor out of Stanford. He should be starting by week 6 and he’s pretty good. The biggest loss on defense was actually coordinator Ray Horton but this defense will benefit simply by not having to be on the field the whole time. There is some good talent on defense if you give them a moment to catch their breath once in a while. This is going to be a tough fourth place in the division team, no easy outs in the NFC West.
Playoff Predictions and overall league review, including MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and offensive and defensive Rookie of the Year picks will come after my AFC preview.
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