The Hott Read 8/10/2013

The 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes

Defense

Defensive Line

The Iowa Hawkeye’s offense will only improve as much as their QB play improves over last year.  On the defensive side the problems on last year’s team can be traced back to the defensive line for the most part.  In 2012 the defense had a total of 13 sacks on the year, that’s exactly the same number Jadeveon Clowney had at South Carolina by himself and a sack and half less then Jarvis Jones had at Georgia.  Calling last season’s pass rush ineffective doesn’t even begin to describe it and Iowa has always been a team that relies on its defensive line to bring pressure.  Even more good news, last year’s sack leader (with 5) Joe Gaglione has graduated.  Not all of the pressure falls on the defensive ends and in the past the Hawkeyes have generated a pass rush from the defensive tackle position (Mitch King or Karl Klug anyone) and that may be the way it has to come this season too.

Defensive End:

Starters:

Dominic Alvis:  The senior is coming off an unremarkable year that saw him coming back from an injury.  Alvis looked like he might be a player before his ACL tear and while he was fully recovered last season the Hawkeyes have to hope that another year removed from his injury allows Alvis to return to pre-injury form.  Alvis has enough size and the type of athleticism you look for in a DE but he just wasn’t effective rushing the passer last year.  He won’t hurt you at DE as he plays the run well and makes the offensive line account for him but he hasn’t shown great pass rushing skills.  Perhaps better production from the rest of the line will relieve the pressure on Alvis and he will shine this season.

Drew Ott:  He was supposed to redshirt last season as a true freshman but injuries and ineffectiveness necessitated the pulling of his redshirt about half way through the season.  Ott was pretty undersized last season and that made him a nonfactor in the pass rushing game.  He has added size over the offseason and that should help but he is still just a true sophomore so he hasn’t physically matured completely and he’s still growing into his body.  Ott shows a lot of promise but he’s going to need some time and that is why he may be the starter but he will share playing time with others.

Back-ups:

Mike Hardy:  The junior has bounced between DE and DT a bit and seems to have now found a home at end.  I’m not sure if that is because that is where he is best suited or if it’s just where he is needed.  The depth and talent at DT is better than at DE so Hardy has a better chance to contribute here.  As of now he is listed behind Ott and it looks like he will have to fight off redshirt freshman Faith Ekakitie for playing time.

Faith Ekakitie:  The redshirt freshman brings size and skill to the end position after it looked like he might be ticketed for the tackle position last year.  Ekakitie was a well-regarded recruit coming in and he already has the size to compete at the college level.  We may actually see him on running downs replacing the smaller Ott because he brings more heft and will be harder to move.

Riley McMinn:  McMinn is a 6-7 sophomore that is just growing into his body and the coaches have to be hoping that his maturation leads a player that can get to the QB.  His height should lend itself to being a disruptive force in the passing lanes if nothing else.

Daumantas Venckus-Cucchiara:  That will be the last time I type out DVC’s name.  The redshirt freshman has earned a spot in the two-deeps and we shall see if he can actually earn playing time or not.  There will undoubtedly be a rotation of players at DE and match-ups and game situation will dictate a lot of playing time so it will be interesting to see where DVC is used if he does earn playing time.

Young guys to keep an eye on:

Nate Meier:  The former eight-man football star moved all over the practice field last year playing RB/FB/LB and actually seeing game reps on special teams.  He finally seems to have settled in at DE and the hope is that he can translate his athleticism into pass rushing ability and be a situational pass rusher this year.

Melvin Spears:  His name seems to pop up on the depth chart every once in a while but the sophomore can’t seem to crack the lineup.  He will get this year to take a shot at playing time since the Hawkeyes didn’t bring in a single DE recruit in this freshmen class but if he can’t break into this lineup his prospects dim in the future.

Defensive Tackle

Starters:

Carl Davis:  Davis is not like other DTs that Iowa has had in the past.  You have to go back to Colin Cole to find someone with the pure size that Davis brings to the position.  At 6-5 315 pounds he is a mountain of a man but up until this point that hasn’t translated on the field. However, if the spring open practice is any indication the light has come on for this kid.  Davis was dominating during the spring and he was bringing it as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher.  The lives of the DEs will be much easier if Davis can play the season the way he was playing in the spring.  A big man with good feet and strong hands can be devastating to an opponent and Davis is starting to realize his potential.

Louis Trinca-Pasat: If there was one bright spot on the defensive line last season it was the emergence of Trinca-Pasat.  Louis played well and most people didn’t notice because the d-line was so bad overall.  He had surgery in the offseason so he may end up not starting because there is some pretty good talent behind him but he will be part of the rotation and I think the coaches will reward him for his play last season.  He is just as good as the other guys and he showed a lot of heart last year.

The rest of the rotation:  It is tough to call Darian Cooper and Jaleel Johnson back-ups because they might start and they for sure will see plenty of playing time.

Darian Cooper:  Cooper played fairly well last year too but he wasn’t as consistent as Trinca-Pasat and he’s still a little light for a DT.  Cooper has the makings of a very disruptive interior player because he uses his quickness to gain an advantage against the offensive line.  He isn’t big but Iowa has a history of getting great play out of undersized DT (King and Klug, remember).

Jaleel Johnson:  Like I said it has been a long time since the Hawkeyes had a DT the size of Carl Davis so with that in mind the coaches recruited Jaleel Johnson last year.  At 6-4 310 pounds Johnson is backing up Carl Davis and they aren’t going to lose much when Davis comes off the field.  As big as Johnson is the scary part is he actually looks bigger if that’s possible.  The best part about having two guys this size is that they can keep each other fresh and make it a long day for opposing offensive linemen.  I don’t know if Johnson will be the pass rusher that Davis seems to be but it won’t matter because on running downs the Hawkeyes may simply play both these guys and dare teams to try to run up the middle.

Young guys you’ll have to wait to see:  Nathan Bazata and Brant Gressel

The two defensive line recruits the Hawkeyes have this year are both in the 280 pound range and project to the DT position.  Considering none of the four guys I just mentioned are seniors you will have to wait a few years before these two get much of a chance.

Linebacker

Senior middle linebacker James Morris has been starting since midway through his freshman season and he is flanked on both sides by fellow seniors and uber-athletes Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens.  The linebackers are the strength and the backbone of this defense and they will greatly appreciate better play in front of them.  These three racked up big tackle numbers last season especially Hitchens and while that’s usually a good thing it was as much a product of the line letting everything get to the linebackers as it was the play of these guys.

Starters:

James Morris:  Morris came to Iowa after a stellar high school career just up the road from Iowa City and the expectations were very high.  He took over the starting MLB spot midway through his freshman year and with a few notable exceptions has played there his entire career.  Morris takes quite a bit of criticism when his play isn’t great and while he has had some rough moments he is the quarterback of this defense.  It’s a cliché to say that the MLB is the heart and soul of a defense but Morris is the unquestioned leader of this D and he makes sure everyone is lined up where they should be.  Morris gets noticed for the plays that he misses but he rarely gets as much credit for the plays he makes.

Anthony Hitchens:  The breakout star of Iowa’s 2012 defense was Hitchens.  He led the Big Ten in tackles and showed everyone his skill and athleticism.  The Hawkeye defense didn’t exactly have a long list of stars last season so it wasn’t as hard for Hitchens to stand out but his play speaks for itself.  Hitchens is a great athlete that finally found a home at LB last season, early in his career he practiced at both running back and safety.

Christian Kirksey:  Kirksey had a breakout season two years ago as a sophomore and then was outshined a bit last season by the emergence of Hitchens.  Kirksey may actually be more athletic than Hitchens but his position doesn’t lend itself to racking up the tackle numbers the way Hitchens’ does.  He has always been a bit undersized but he has finally matured into a linebacker’s body and he still has explosive speed.

Next man in:

Quinton Alston:  No disrespect to the other “back-ups” but Alston is at a different level than the others.  He is a MLB and doesn’t really have the skill set to play outside but it is actually Morris’ versatility and knowledge of the defense that makes Alston the “next man in”.  Ferentz has never said this but the truth is that if Morris gets hurt Alston replaces him in the middle and the defense doesn’t miss a beat.  If Hitchens or Kirksey were to go down the likely scenario would be to move Morris over to fill in their position and bring Alston in to play the middle.  Morris playing out of position next to Alston in the middle is better than Morris staying in the middle and playing one of the other back-ups.

Back-ups:

Travis Perry:  Perry is a walk-on that has worked his way up to the two-deeps and is the back-up to Christian Kirksey.  He has worked hard and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ferentz give him a scholarship at some point but it doesn’t say much for the older linebackers on the roster that Perry is ahead of them.  Perry can play but it will take a couple of injuries for him to see a lot of playing time beyond special teams this year.  He will get a shot at the job next year but there are some young linebackers on the roster that might pass him up.

Marcus Collins and Cole Fisher:  Collins is a fourth year junior and Fisher is a third year sophomore and both are listed as the back-up to Anthony Hitchens.  Both players are still a bit undersized and their contributions on special teams will far outweigh there contributions at linebacker this year.  They can both play if need be but if injuries hit the linebacker corps hard it could be trouble.

The Young Guns: Laron Taylor, Reggie Spearman, John Kenny and Josey Jewell

Taylor is a redshirt freshman while Spearman, Kenny and Jewell are all true freshmen and they all need some time to add size but they are only going to get a year.  Next season Quinton Alston will be a senior and he will be locked into the MLB spot but the coaches recruited these four and are recruiting even more linebackers this year with the expectation that they will compete for the other two spots.  Perry may play himself into a starting spot next season but he is going to have to fend off these four challengers and possibly more.

Defensive Backs

The position is long on talent and light on experience.  BJ Lowery moves into the top CB spot previously held by Micah Hyde and he has the talent to excel.  Jordan Lomax is penciled in as the starter opposite Lowery and he is returning after missing last year with an injury.  Senior Tanner Miller returns at free safety after a less than stellar junior year.  The real competition seems to be at strong
safety where John Lowdermilk is looking to bump fan favorite Nico Law to the bench.  The most important addition to the secondary is the return of defensive coordinator Phil Parker as the position coach.  Parker has coached some of the best defensive backs at Iowa and he has a knack for bringing out the best in his players.  If Tanner Miller has a bounce back season at free safety I think much of the credit goes to Parker.

Cornerback

Starters:

BJ Lowery:  Lowery started last season and is the most experienced CB on the roster.  He has the talent and confidence necessary to be the top CB.  At 5-11 193 pounds Lowery has good size and he has a short memory which is essential for a CB.  Lowery could really stand out if the Hawkeye defensive line can bring some pressure.  He will draw the toughest assignments and he will get beat from time to time because he gambles to make a big play but he will make that play enough times to make it worthwhile.  Lowery is the defensive back the Hawkeyes will be counting on to create turnovers in the passing game and watch out because he could make some plays after picking off a pass.

Jordan Lomax:  A lot like Barkley Hill at running back last season Lomax was turning heads and making a name for himself in practice until an injury ended his season before it began.  Lomax is a good athlete with great instincts at CB.  He has good size too but he will have to hold off the challenge of Sean Draper.  Lomax looks like he will be the starter but if he falters at all he may end up the nickel back.

Back-ups:

Sean Draper:  The sophomore saw quite a bit of action last year as a true freshman due to the injuries and the ineffectiveness of some older players.  Draper has all the physical skills and the temperament to be a great CB and it should be interesting to watch him develop under the tutelage of Phil Parker.  He’s going to give Lomax a challenge for the starting spot but even if he doesn’t win that job he will see plenty of action given the three-receiver sets the Hawkeyes will continually face.

Maurice “Reese” Fleming:  The redshirt freshman is known as Reese and he’s also known as a heck of an athlete.  He started out last season as a WR and then was moved to CB for whatever reason.  Fleming was seen as a possible playmaker on offense until the coaches deemed him better suited for defense.  He still wants to get his hands on the ball and even though he wasn’t mentioned by the coaches as a possible punt returner he let it be known that he isn’t out of the running yet.  Fleming looks like the type of athlete that can excel at CB because of his quickness and the fluidity of his movements.  Phil Parker has done far more with far less gifted athletes and while Fleming may have to be patient waiting for playing time he should be an excellent CB down the road.

Gavin Smith:  Smith is a former transfer from Iowa Central Community College entering his senior season who has seen little playing time at CB.  He contributes on special teams and has a good knowledge of the scheme but he has been passed by younger player and will likely only play if absolutely necessary.

The Freshmen Depth:  Desmond King and Malik Rucker:

Two true freshman slated to play CB.  King was a quiet late addition to the recruiting class but he comes in as the all-time leader in interceptions in the state of Michigan.  He made an early move to Iowa City this summer to help himself get ready to contribute this season and while a lot of college CBs are great athletes that teams turn into CBs this kid is a CB through and through.  If there is going to be a surprise playmaker in the Hawkeye secondary my money is on Desmond King.  Rucker is a good athlete that needs time to physically mature but he could play in a pinch and should be a good player in time.

Strong Safety

Starter:

John Lowdermilk or Nico Law:  The surprise of the early two-deeps seemed to be that Lowdermilk had pulled even with fan favorite Nico Law in the race to start at SS.  Lowdermilk is sort of an unknown but he brings good size and the likelihood is that it is his consistency that is winning over the coaches.  Nico Law took over as the starter at SS at around midseason last year and while he is a fan favorite due to his social media prowess he became a bit of a wildcard on the field and that doesn’t endear him to Coach Ferentz.  Law tends to gamble a bit and he looks for the big hit when he should concentrate on making the tackle and while he may want to be the “next Bob Sanders” Sanders wasn’t known for missing tackles or being out of position.  Law has all the ability needed to be a top SS but if Lowdermilk proves he’s the more reliable player there is little doubt who the coaches will go with.  Lowdermilk is no slouch and he played well on special teams last year so the coaches know what they are getting from him and that goes a long way.

Back-up:

Ruben Lile:  The redshirt freshman looked good early last year before tearing his ACL and missing the season, no my writing is not echoing there just seems to be a theme here.  Lile is a 6-3 210 pound safety with superior athleticism and if he hadn’t blown out his knee last year there is a real chance that there isn’t even a debate at the SS position because he may have staked his claim to it last year.  This kid has everything you want in a safety and if he is completely recovered and ready to go he may make this a three-way race.  If he can’t crack the Lowdermilk/Law combo perhaps he tries the Kirksey/Hitchens method and transitions to OLB for 2014 season, there is playing time to be had and he isn’t much smaller than they were when they moved to LB.

Free Safety

Starter:

Tanner Miller:  The fan bases’ favorite whipping boy last season gave the Hawkeye faithful plenty to complain about.  Miller certainly did not have a good season last year and I doubt even he would deny it.  What most fans fail to realize is that Miller was the last line of defense on a team that had virtually no first line of defense.  Miller made plenty of mistakes that exacerbated the problems of the Hawkeye defense but he spent far too much time trying to make up for the mistakes of others and not enough time trying to just do his job.  There is no one on the Hawkeye roster that will benefit more from a coaching change than Tanner Miller. The impact the return of Phil Parker to defensive backs coach will have cannot be overstated.  Parker has made a career out of making guys like Derek Pagel and Sean Considine into fantastic safeties.  Miller is in that same mold and may even be a better athlete than some of the guys Parker has worked with.  He played pretty well as a sophomore and then regressed a lot last season under Derrell Wilson.  Miller will also be better if the defensive line plays better and if he has a more consistent SS in front of him (John Lowdermilk perhaps?).

Back-up:

Anthony Gair:  The redshirt freshman out of Texas has the size and athletic ability you want in a safety but not much is known about him.  His natural talent will carry him for now and he will get a shot to push Miller but Miller is a senior with a lot of playing time under his belt and he knows that defense far better than Gair.  It will take a catastrophic fall by Miller to lose his starting job.

The young guys: 

Greg Mabin and Soloman Warfield:  Mabin is a redshirt freshman but he played WR last year and just moved over to the defense in spring practice so he is still finding his way.  Warfield could be a wildcard as a true freshman.  He may have the versatility to play multiple positions in the defensive backfield so it will take some time to sort out exactly where he best fits.

Punter:

Connor Kornbrath:  Kornbrath struggled last season as a true freshman but considering he is the only punter on the roster it’s his job.  The truth is I remember Ryan Donahue struggling as a freshman too and he turned out pretty well; Kornbrath will be fine it will just take some time.

Special Teams

Punt return:  Kevonte Martin-Manley, Jordan Canzeri, Riley McCarron and Maurice Fleming apparently all have a shot at returning punts.  Ferentz has a tendency to go with ball security over playmaking at this position so Fleming may be on the outside looking in.  The other three seem to be solid with their hands so this may take some time to work out.

Kickoff return:  Jordan Cotton excelled at this last season and it is where he began to make his mark and coach Chris White was heard saying that JUCO transfer Damond Powell is getting a look at kickoff return too.  I’ve seen Powell’s JUCO film and the idea of a guy with that speed lining up with Cotton on kickoff return sounds like heaven to me.

Long-snapper:  Casey Kreiter is a very good long-snapper for the Hawkeyes and the way you can tell is that you have never heard his name.  The goal of every long-snapper is stay anonymous…it means you never screw up.

Final Analysis

Iowa’s defense will be as good as their defensive line allows them to be.  Last year’s line was pretty horrific and the defense followed suit.  The linebackers need the line to keep them clean of blockers so they can make plays and the secondary needs the line to get some pressure so QBs don’t have all day to find their receivers.  These are pretty basic defensive principles but watch last year’s team and you see why the fundamentals of football always remain the same.  There are a lot of different ways teams go about achieving these basics but Iowa has always relied on the four down linemen to get pressure.  Iowa has never been fancy, or as Kirk Ferentz would put it sexy, but they are usually good at the fundamentals and that is where the Hawkeyes failed last season on defense.  Fans (and I include myself in this group) wish that Ferentz would try something new and innovative, especially when things are going badly but Ferentz believes if the Hawkeyes clean up their mistakes the rest will take care of itself.  We did see a bit of a philosophical change last year as the defense did use the nickel and dime defenses more against multiple receiver sets instead of expecting a LB to cover a WR all the time.  My sincere hope is that the addition of Jim Reid will lead to Iowa committing more to matching up against their opponents personnel.  Ferentz is unlikely to ever embrace a heavy blitz scheme as it goes against his nature but if the defensive line can’t get pressure using the linebackers, especially Christian Kirksey, should be considered.  Having three good corners like Lowery, Lomax and Draper should mean using the nickel against spread teams won’t be a problem.

I’m planning on attending the Hawkeyes open fall practice next Saturday and I’ll give an update on what I see and maybe I’ll have a better idea of how I see the season unfolding.  At this point until a QB is chosen and I can see how the WR’s and DE’s are playing this team is still a bit of a mystery.