2013 NFL Draft Analysis
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
7. Jonathan Cooper OG
45. Kevin Minter LB
69. Tyrann Mathieu DB
103. Alex Okafor OLB
116. Earl Watford OG
140. Stepfan Taylor RB
174. Ryan Swope WR
187. Andre Ellington RB
219. D.C. Jefferson TE
Immediate Impact: OG Jonathan Cooper, LB Kevin Minter
In the battle of who was the best guard Cooper got the last laugh at the draft getting picked ahead of Chance Warmack and in this case the only losers are the defensive linemen that are going to have to deal with these two for the next decade. Cooper is an athletic guard with the versatility to play anywhere on the interior of the line the only problem for the Cardinals is that there is only one of him. Cooper is an immediate starter at guard and a huge upgrade to their line. Minter will make an immediate impact simply because the Cardinals need him. Daryl Washington is suspended to start the season and Minter is likely the guy lining up inside next to newly signed Jasper Brinkley. Minter can play and while the Cardinals will miss Washington’s leadership I don’t think their defense will suffer much.
Best Value: OLB Alex Okafor
There was a time Alex Okafor looked like he could be a late first round/early second round pick and I never agreed with that assessment but in the fourth round at #103 overall that I can get behind. Okafor played on a Texas defense that just wasn’t as good as the individual players on it. He’ll be making the transition from DE to OLB but he’s a natural pass rusher that uses his hands well and knows how to get to the QB. He doesn’t have an elite first step but his pass rushing skill should show up this year as he is used as a situational pass rusher. If he had gone in the top 50 I would have said that was too high but at #103 he’s very good value.
Sleeper: RB Stepfan Taylor (I wanted to list Watford, Taylor, Swope and Ellington)
I narrowed this down to Taylor because he’s the lesser known RB and I think he’ll surprise. Taylor isn’t going to “wow” you, he’s not fast, he’s not big, he’s just good. Ellington was known for speed and big plays in college, Taylor is the grinder. He gets tough yards and he takes the ball over and over again. The Cardinals signed Rashard Mendenhall in the offseason and they still have Ryan Williams but Mendenhall is coming off a season lost to injury and Ryan Williams is having a career lost to injury. Ellington has the name but Taylor has the game and you can count him.
Overall Analysis:
Cooper and Minter are great picks but the Cardinals didn’t stop there. Tyrann Mathieu is a huge gamble and I’m not sold on the idea of him being a free safety. I think Mathieu gives them some value as a slot corner and he has dynamic return ability but this team already has Patrick Peterson so that return ability may be used very little. Okafor was fantastic value in the fourth round and keep an eye on Earl Watford from James Madison. Watford is a big athletic guard and he may end up teaming with Cooper for years to come on the interior of the offensive line. Taylor is a solid pick up and could pay dividends given the injury history at RB. Ryan Swope ran a surprisingly fast 40 time and he could be a nice addition in the slot. Ellington dealt with a hamstring injury during his senior year and then he ran a slow 40 during workouts that likely dropped his value seeing as his game at Clemson was predicated on speed. However, if Ellington gets healthy he will play much faster than he ever ran and he’ll be a nice weapon to have. D. C. Jefferson didn’t do much at Rutgers but given the depth chart at TE for the Cardinals anything is possible.
San Francisco 49ers
18. Eric Reid FS
40. Cornellius (Tank) Carradine DE
55. Vance McDonald TE
88. Corey Lemonier OLB
128. Quinton Patton WR
131. Marcus Lattimore RB
157. Quinton Dial DT
180. Nick Moody OLB
237. B.J. Daniels QB
246. Carter Bykowski OT
252. Marcus Cooper CB
Immediate Impact: FS Eric Reid
It’s not surprising that the defending NFC Champions weren’t looking for a bunch of new starters in the draft but they found the one they need. The loss of Dashon Goldson left a big hole at FS and the 49ers traded up to get the one they wanted Eric Reid from LSU. Reid has a lot of experience against top competition and he should slide in smoothly at the back end of the 49er defense.
Best Value: RB Marcus Lattimore **********
This pick doesn’t just come with one asterisk it comes with ten. Lattimore was the best back in this draft before he suffered one of the most gruesome injuries I have ever seen. He has made a stunning recovery and the fact that he was able to go through some drills for teams before the draft is nothing short of a miracle. Lattimore is likely to spend this season on injured reserve because he still has some rehab to do and the 49ers shouldn’t need him. The value here is in the future, Frank Gore can’t play forever and he’s probably coming close to end of his career. LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are good backs but they aren’t every down grind it out type of players. Lattimore is a fantastic talent and if he makes a complete recovery and becomes the type of back he’s capable of being it will be the best comeback story and a medical miracle all in one.
Sleepers: OLB Corey Lemonier, WR Quinton Patton
Lemonier was a good pass rusher as a DE at Auburn but his skills and his body translate very well to OLB for the 49ers. Some scouts see Lemonier as stiff but some said the same thing about Aldon Smith, Lemonier probably won’t have the same impact Smith had as a rookie but when the 49ers go looking for some extra pass rushing help on third down this is where they will find it. Patton may just be the right guy at the right place at the right time. Michael Crabtree is going to miss the start of the season, Mario Manningham is coming back from an injury and AJ Jenkins didn’t do anything last year meaning the 49ers need someone to step up opposite Anquan Boldin and my money is on Patton.
Overall Analysis:
This team doesn’t have a lot of room on their roster and that’s not surprising given they won the NFC last year but they drafted a lot of talent and I’m not sure what they are going to do with it all. Reid is a starter and Lattimore is probably going on IR. Tank Carradine is a great eventual replacement for Justin Smith and given the fact that Smith is coming off an injury and so is Carradine maybe they can give each other enough time to heal up. Lemonier and Patton are needed depth at OLB and WR and Vance McDonald should step into to fill the void left by Delanie Walker’s departure. The rest of these players are going to have to fight to make this roster. Quinton Dial is an intriguing prospect at DT and Nick Moody could bring depth to the LB corps. The most interesting project could be BJ Daniels the QB out of South Florida. The 49ers traded for Colt McCoy from the Browns to be the new back-up to Colin Kaepernick and McCoy’s experience should give him a leg up but Daniels presents a nice option as the third QB. Current third QB Scott Tolzien’s skill set is not like Kaepernick’s but Daniels which could give him an advantage as a developmental prospect.
Seattle Seahawks
62. Christine Michael RB
87. Jordan Hill DT
123. Chris Harper WR
137. Jesse Williams DT
138. Tharold Simon CB
158. Luke Willson TE
194. Spencer Ware RB
220. Ryan Seymour OG
231. Ty Powell OLB
241. Jared Smith DT
242. Michael Bowie OT
Immediate Impact: WR Percy Harvin
This feels like a cop-out but after looking at the list of draftees I don’t see anyone making a huge impact on a team that was as good as the Seahawks were last year. Harvin gives them the playmaker they desperately need to take pressure off of RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Sidney Rice. He is also the type of guy that can make Russell Wilson better because Harvin is a short to intermediate route type of player that Wilson can find and dump the ball off to when the play breaks down. Harvin can make something out of nothing and that will be the most valuable thing for this offense.
Best Value: DT Jesse Williams
Williams has the talent and especially the strength to be seriously considered as a first round pick and somehow the Seahawks got him in the fifth round. He’s a space eating NT that can play as a DT in a 4-3 defense and while he won’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet he will definitely improve your run defense. When you can pick up a talent like this in the fifth round you found the definition of value.
Sleeper: CB Tharold Simon
To say that Simon comes with character concerns is an understatement, he doesn’t have Tyrann Mathieu level concerns but he has concerns. There are two very good reasons I can see Simon succeeding in Seattle and they are Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. The Seahawks have found a type of CB they like and that is tall and physical and Simon could be that type of guy. Nobody knew who Sherman and Browner were until they started dominating and it looks like Pete Carroll is sticking with what works. This is of course all contingent on Simon staying out of jail.
Overall Analysis:
I don’t see this draft having a huge impact and other than Jesse Williams and Tharold Simon I question some of these picks. Obviously without a 1st rounder the impact is questionable but RB Christine Michael is a tantalizing talent that never really put it together and there were better players on the board at the end of the second round. DT Jordan Hill was a nice player at Penn St. but he is a little undersized and while that may now work since they have Jesse Williams they didn’t know that at the time. WR Chris Harper is going to have to fight to make the roster as the fifth WR and the last six picks have very little chance of making this roster. Overall it’s a draft that may bring a little depth but probably not a lot of production.
St. Louis Rams
8. Tavon Austin WR
30. Alec Ogletree LB
71. T.J. McDonald S
92. Stedman Bailey WR
113. Barrett Jones OL
149. Brandon McGee CB
160. Zac Stacy RB
Immediate Impact: WR Tavon Austin, LB Alec Ogletree
Austin was drafted to be the playmaker of this offense and given his natural ability that shouldn’t be a problem. Austin’s only drawback is his size and given the rules in today’s passing game his stature shouldn’t be an impediment. Austin will be dynamic replacing Danny Amendola in the slot but he can also split out wide and make things happen. Ogletree is another one of those troubled talents that teams hope can put it all together and if Ogletree does he could be one of better LB’s in the NFL. Ogletree will shift from his college position in the middle to weakside linebacker next to James Laurinaitis. The hope from the Rams will be that Ogletree takes after Laurinaitis and Chris Long and avoids the off the field problems he’s had in the past.
Best Value: OL Barrett Jones
Jones falling to the fourth round and the 113th pick is one of the bigger mysteries to me even if there were some health questions with him. Jones was versatile enough to win the Outland Trophy at LT one year and the Rimington Trophy at center the next and if I were any of the three interior starters on the Rams line I’d be looking over my shoulder. Jones could steal either guard or the center job and I won’t be the least bit surprised. At worst Jones is the ultimate back-up because he could legitimately play all 5 line positions if needed.
Sleeper: WR Stedman Bailey
Bailey caught 114 passes last year and scored 25 TD’s. That’s not a misprint, 25 TD’s. Tavon Austin wasn’t the only target of Geno Smith at West Virginia last year and while it was a pass happy offense scoring 25 TD’s in a college season is not a fluke. Bailey isn’t the biggest or the fastest receiver but he knows how to get open and he knows what to do with the ball when he gets it. The Rams have some fairly non-descript WR’s like Brian Quick, Chris Givens and Austin Pettis on the roster and while those guys might develop this year I wouldn’t count out Bailey making some noise instead.
Overall Analysis:
It is a complete coincidence that the Rams are the last team I did in my draft analysis and they also happen to have my favorite draft overall. I wasn’t a big Tavon Austin fan and in any other draft I would question him going eighth overall but this draft was so devoid of playmakers at the top that I understand what the Rams were doing. GM Les Snead played this draft beautifully moving up to get Austin and then moving down to recoup some of what they lost and still getting Alec Ogletree. T. J. McDonald was a sneaky good pick and there is always a surprise rookie safety in the league that starts and plays well and McDonald can win the job in St. Louis and he has the bloodlines to succeed at the position. I already said my peace about Bailey and Jones but I also like the last two picks. Brandon McGee will slide in as the fourth CB on the roster and that’s a great get in the fifth round and with the departure of Steven Jackson the RB position could be wide open for Zac Stacy. It’s unlikely Stacy will win the starting job but Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead are hardly unbeatable guys in front of him.
The Hott Read 