2013 NFL Draft Analysis
AFC West
Denver Broncos
28. Sylvester Williams DT
58. Montee Ball RB
90. Kayvon Webster CB
146. Quanterus Smith DE
161. Tavarres King WR
173. Vinston Painter OT
234. Zac Dysert QB
Immediate Impact: DT Sylvester Williams, RB Montee Ball
Sylvester Williams was the best DT in the draft that no one talked about. He was rarely mentioned along with Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei or Sheldon Richardson but Williams is a player and the Broncos got a starter. He brings more talent and a better motor than free agent signee Terence Knighton and Williams is the best DT on the roster now. Montee Ball is simply a better option than the rest of the guys on the roster at RB. Willis McGahee is about done, Knowshon Moreno flashed a bit last year but should you really count on him now and if Ronnie Hillman had convinced the Broncos he was their future they wouldn’t have drafted Ball in the first place.
Best Value: RB Montee Ball
The value of the RB position in the draft has been in a dramatic fall for years and it takes a special talent like and Adrian Peterson or a Trent Richardson to get a team to take one high in the draft anymore so value is all relative. Ball doesn’t look like much standing on the sidelines or in his Under Armour but defenses hate him. His balance, his vision and his deceptive power make him a nightmare to defend and he has proven he is a dependable workhorse type of back. Ball has 1200-1500 yard potential and when you can get that with the 58th pick of the draft you just got tremendous value.
Sleeper: DE Quanterus Smith
This 6’5 250 lb. DE out of Western Kentucky was leading the country in sacks prior to tearing his ACL and the Broncos need a pass rusher to compliment Von Miller. The Broncos are banking on a healthy Smith down the road and that may even mean this year as a pass rushing specialist but Smith has star potential down the road. Miller will get even more attention from opponents now that Elvis Dumervil is off to Baltimore so if Smith is completely recovered from his knee injury he could step in on passing downs for Robert Ayers and face a lot of one-on-one match-ups that he can win.
Overall Analysis:
Williams and Ball are immediate starters and Smith could help out the pass rush so that’s a nice start. CB Kayvon Webster wasn’t my first choice where the Broncos took him, there were better players like Will Davis and B.W. Webb still on the board, but he wasn’t a huge reach and he’s got some skills. WR Tavarres King is going to struggle to make this roster with so many veteran WR’s on this team and Vinston Painter may only make the roster due to a lack of depth at OT. You have to like a QB out of Miami (OH) and if the Broncos carry three QB’s during the season my money is on Zac Dysert to be that third guy. He better soak up as much knowledge from Peyton Manning in the meeting room as he can because he isn’t going to see any live snaps unless there is a catastrophe with both Manning and Brock Osweiler.
Kansas City Chiefs
1. Eric Fisher OT
63. Travis Kelce TE
96. Knile Davis RB
99. Nico Johnson ILB
134. Sanders Commings CB
170. Eric Kush OG
204. Braden Wilson FB
207. Mike Catapano DE
Immediate Impact: OT Eric Fisher
Obviously the #1 pick of the draft better bring an immediate impact or you have done something horribly wrong. Amazingly I’m not sure who else can make an immediate impact because the Chiefs roster isn’t terrible. For a team that went 2-14 last year they have surprisingly few holes. The Jaguars had the same record and looking at their roster it was easy to see why but this team’s record really came down to bad QB play, poor coaching and some unfortunate injuries. Fisher steps in at RT replacing Eric Winston while the rest of the line rounds into form if everyone is healthy. Fisher is great insurance in case Branden Albert’s back acts up again but either way Fisher is the only guaranteed starter in this draft class.
Best Value: RB Knile Davis
If you would have told me two years ago that Knile Davis would get drafted at the end of the third round of the draft I would have told you “you are crazy”. Davis has everything you want in a back; power, speed, agility and good hands. He also has had leg injuries piling up over the last couple of years that dropped his draft stock a lot. I love him as a compliment to Jamaal Charles because he can do a lot of the same things and the two of them together will hopefully keep each other healthy. Something tells me Davis will have a short career but that doesn’t mean he can’t make the most of it.
Sleeper: LB Nico Johnson
The situation that led to Jovan Belcher taking his own life last year was horrific for his family, his victim’s family and everyone else it affected. Unfortunately the reality for the Chiefs is it wasn’t just a personal loss to them it was a loss on the field. Belcher had become a very solid ILB next to Derrick Johnson and now they have to look past the tragedy of that day and find a replacement on the field. They signed Akeem Jordan from the Eagles to fill the spot but they also drafted an Alabama linebacker named Nico Johnson. I’m not sold on Jordan and I think Nico Johnson has a chance to become the starter next to Derrick Johnson and he could excel in this defense.
Overall Analysis:
Fisher is the only guaranteed starter and Davis and Johnson will have to earn their snaps at positions the Eagles have veteran starters. TE Travis Kelce would be a nice insurance policy given the health issues of Tony Moeaki if he was known to be more durable but he is a pass catching upgrade over Anthony Fasano. Sanders Commings should be the fourth CB behind veterans Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson. Eric Kush has to hope his versatility lands him a spot backing up multiple positions on the offensive line while Braden Wilson and Mike Catapano fight to make the end of the roster.
Oakland Raiders
12. DJ Hayden CB
42. Menelik Watson OT
66. Sio Moore OLB
112. Tyler Wilson QB
172. Nick Kasa TE
181. Latavius Murray RB
184. Mychal Rivera TE
205. Stacy McGee DT
209. Brice Butler WR
233. David Bass DE
Immediate Impact: CB DJ Hayden, OT Menelik Watson
DJ Hayden was the apple of the Raiders’ eye leading up to the draft and they made a very nice move down the draft board and still got the guy they wanted. Hayden will start from day one assuming he is over his abdominal problem. Yep the Raiders top pick is spending some time in the hospital this off season due to an abdominal injury, I’m not sure it’s clear if it is related to the scary injury he suffered during practice last year that made a lot of teams back off but the Raiders took this chance. If Hayden is healthy he is the unquestioned top CB on the roster and that says as much about the Raiders depth chart as it does about him. Watson was a steal in the second round and he should take over at RT considering he only has to beat out Khalif Barnes for the job. That should not be a difficult task.
Best Value: QB Tyler Wilson
In a draft so completely devoid of a franchise QB there were a number of players that were intriguing and Tyler Wilson was one of those guys. Wilson dealt with a horrific senior year at Arkansas after losing his boneheaded coach Bobby Petrino and dealing with an injury his lost season made many forget what they had liked about him before. He has an NFL arm and the leadership qualities all teams look for in a QB. Matt Flynn was brought in and is expected to be the starter and while there are people who think Terrelle Pryor will be the back-up I fully expect Wilson to not only be the back-up but to push Flynn for the starting job. Getting a guy with this much talent in the fourth round is a steal.
Sleeper: LB Sio Moore
Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett and Kaluka Maiava were all signed in the offseason to give the Raiders a new LB corps and Moore was drafted for depth. Moore has the ability to play multiple LB positions but if he can find a spot where he is comfortable I think he could end up playing a lot. Moore played at Connecticut which isn’t a football powerhouse but has put out some good players over the past few years. Moore is not a name familiar to a lot of people but he may become familiar to Raider fans.
Overall Analysis:
Hayden was a gamble but when you are as bad as the Raiders have been at drafting you sometimes swing for the fences and hope for the homerun. The good news was that the Raiders swung with the 12th pick and not the third pick and actually came out of this draft with some players that can help. Watson may never be Pro Bowl RT but he’s considerably better than what they have. I like what Moore brings and I like the addition of Wilson because he brings competitiveness and competence to the QB position whether he’s the starter or the back-up. Nick Kasa and Mychal Rivera come into a TE depth chart that is begging for bodies and Brice Butler has the size and speed to be an NFL receiver and that’s more than can be said for some of the players at the WR position for the Raiders. Murray, McGee and Bass could all make this roster simply based on needing bodies and anything they contribute is a positive.
San Diego Chargers
11. DJ Fluker OT
38. Manti Te’o ILB
76. Keenan Allen WR
145. Steve Williams CB
179. Tourek Williams DE
221. Brad Sorensen QB
Immediate Impact: OT DJ Fluker, ILB Manti Te’o, WR Keenan Allen
The Chargers offensive line was atrocious last season and DJ Fluker becomes the starting RT immediately. He doesn’t solve all of the line issues but he solves a very large one and immediately makes running to the right a very good play call. Fluker has the ability to be one of the best RT’s in football. Manti Te’o was the most talked about player during the season and especially after it and luckily for him he ended up in a place where he can succeed. He has a very good LB lining up beside him in the middle in Donald Butler and while many people wanted to compare him to the late Junior Seau the minute he was drafted by the Chargers that isn’t a fair comparison. Seau played in a different defense and it’s not Seau the Te’o is replacing he is replacing Takeo Spikes. That is a much fairer comparison for Te’o and one he can live up to. Spikes was a very good LB in the NFL for many years and that’s what Te’o will be. Keenan Allen is the dark horse here after falling into the third round of the draft. He may be forgotten by many but not by me because he may be the most talented WR in this draft.
Best Value: WR Keenan Allen
Allen wasn’t having a stellar year at Cal last season (it didn’t help that his QB’s were less than impressive) and then he got hurt. He didn’t recover in time to make an impression on scouts before the draft and they started to doubt him. That mistake will be the Chargers gain. Allen is not a Randy Moss type of player as his game is not predicated on speed; he is a physical and powerful route running machine that can play outside or in the slot. The best comparison in the NFL is probably Anquan Boldin and that’s a pretty good player to be compared to. The top four WR’s for the Chargers are Malcolm Floyd, Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Robert Meachem. Alexander and Brown have never stayed healthy and Meachem is hanging on to his roster spot by a thread. Allen should be lining up opposite Floyd by week 4 unless Alexander gets hurt before that and I would expect Allen to become Phillip Rivers’ favorite target shortly after that.
Sleeper: CB Steve Williams
Williams is a little short for a starting NFL corner (5’9) and hopefully for the Chargers he doesn’t have to be a starter but I wouldn’t put it past him to be the nickel corner. He’s fast and fluid and the Chargers depth chart at CB is a work in progress. Nickel corners can be hard to find and while no one was in love with Williams during the draft process he could be a nice pick up in the fifth round.
Overall Analysis:
The Chargers had one of the better drafts considering they got three likely starters with their first three picks. Fluker is a monster at RT, Te’o is going to excel in this environment in San Diego and Keenan Allen may have been the steal of the entire draft. If Steve Williams makes any impact at CB the last two picks of this draft will be nearly irrelevant. That’s not to say that Tourek Williams or Brad Sorensen couldn’t develop somewhere down the road but they would only be icing on the cake with this draft.
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