2013 NFL Draft Analysis
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
22. Desmond Trufant CB
60. Robert Alford CB
127. Malliciah Goodman DE
133. Levine Toilolo TE
153. Stansly Maponga DE
243. Kemal Ishmael SS
244. Zeke Motta SS
249. Sean Renfree QB
Immediate Impact: CB Desmond Trufant
My co-choice for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Trufant steps into a huge void on a team expected to compete for a Super Bowl berth. Trufant was the best man-to-man cover corner in this draft and the expectation is for him to take over starting opposite Asante Samuel. Trufant has the skills and the bloodlines to succeed and excel in the NFL. I have every expectation that he will be the best CB from this draft and one of the best in the league within the next few years.
Best Value: QB Sean Renfree
It may seem strange to bring up a QB on a team with Matt Ryan as a starter but the depth chart beyond Ryan is wide open. Renfree suffered an injury in his bowl game that may have turned some teams off but he studied under David Cutcliffe at Duke and he has the size and the arm to play in the NFL. I’m certainly not expecting him to compete with Ryan but he could become his back-up and a future trade chip for the Falcons and that’s pretty good for a late 7th round pick.
Sleeper: CB Robert Alford
Alford isn’t expected to start but he will play a very important role as the third corner given that the Falcons lost both Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes in the off season. Alford is a small school prospect with a lot of potential and gives the Falcons a future replacement for Samuel. He was a very good prospect to get at #60 overall and while that may seem high for a sleeper Alford wasn’t all that well known outside of the scouting world so his emergence will surprise some.
Overall Analysis:
Trufant and Alford address a huge need for this team and will play a large role in the defense. Malliciah Goodman is a better physical specimen than he is a football player but there is a lot of potential there and he could bring some much needed pass rush. Levine Toilolo played with some excellent TE’s at Stanford over the past couple of seasons and now he gets to learn from the best ever. If Toilolo can pick up some pointers from Tony Gonzalez he has a chance to become a nice complementary piece. Ishmael and Motta bring some depth to the safety position and maybe some help on coverage teams which isn’t bad toward the end of the draft. My only problem with this draft is they didn’t grab any offensive lineman. The loss of Tyson Clabo is not exactly debilitating but entrusting the RT position to Lamar Holmes without any competition for him is questionable. Perhaps the Falcons will chase one of the veterans still left on the market before training camp or they may wait to see how Holmes performs during training camp to make a decision but the decision not to draft any offensive linemen is curious.
Carolina Panthers
14. Star Lotulelei DT
44. Kawann Short DT
108. Edmond Kugbila OG
148. AJ Klein LB
182. Kenjon Barner RB
Immediate Impact: DT Star Lotulelei
Star Lotulelei was the best defensive lineman in the draft and DT was the biggest position of need for the Panthers so this one was easy. Lotulelei was going to make an impact for whatever team drafted him but on the Panthers he immediately becomes a vital part of their defense. His presence will make DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy better and he gives MLB Luke Kuechly a big man in the middle to keep blockers away. When one player comes in and improves the productivity of the three best players on your defense, that’s an immediate impact.
Best Value: RB Kenjon Barner
Barner may seem like an odd choice given his size and the fact that the Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart at RB but Barner is a different type of back. Williams and Stewart are strong physical backs that can handle a workload that Barner can’t but in the new NFL where playmakers come in all shapes and sizes Barner could carve out a niche for himself. Barner has speed to burn and he can take it to house any time he touches it and that is a trait that Williams and Stewart don’t seem to have anymore. In a league where matchups and mismatches have turned the game into a chess match having a piece like Barner makes your offense that much harder to prepare for.
Sleeper: LB AJ Klein
Klein played MLB at Iowa St. and he has absolutely no chance to play MLB for the Panthers unless something befalls reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly and that seems unlikely. What is likely is an opening at either of the other two LB spots. Thomas Davis and Jon Beason are listed as the starters at OLB and the likelihood of either of those two making through a season unscathed is virtually nil. The depth chart at LB is anything but imposing meaning Klein is likely to be counted on at some point during the season. Klein isn’t the biggest or fastest linebacker out there but he knows how to tackle and he should be versatile enough to play when he is inevitably called upon.
Overall Analysis:
All five players are likely to make this team without a much problem but Lotulelei is the only likely immediate starter. Kawann Short impresses at times but it’s those times he didn’t that worry people. Short has 1st round physical talent but his consistency and motor dropped him a round. He will begin the season backing up veteran Dwan Edwards but the Panthers hope he will eventually start next to Lotulelei and whether that happens this year or in the future is up to Short. Edmond Kugbila is a small school OG that the Panthers took in the fourth round and he was a bit of reach. There were better prospects like David Bakhtiari (who was the next pick) that could have helped out at RT, a spot where the Panthers could use a hand. Overall I think they Panthers got some players with their five picks that can help them now and in the future.
New Orleans Saints
15. Kenny Vaccaro FS
75. Terron Armstead OT
82. John Jenkins NT
144. Kenny Stills WR
183. Rufus Johnson OLB
Immediate Impact: FS Kenny Vaccaro
Vaccaro is coming in to a team that needs help in the secondary and he can be the last line of defense. He has taken some heat for how bad Texas’ defense was last year but it wasn’t his fault. Vaccaro should take the starting FS spot away from Malcolm Jenkins and he can be a top level safety in the NFL.
Best Value: NT John Jenkins
The Saints have every intention of staring Akiem Hicks at NT in their new Rob Ryan run 3-4 defense but Hicks has the ability to slide outside to the DE spot in the three man front. Jenkins dropped in the draft due to some question about his work ethic and his limited abilities and while he may be a bit of a one-trick pony he does that one trick very well. Jenkins is a behemoth that was born to be a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense and Rob Ryan knows the value of that. With Hicks around Jenkins won’t get a lot of notice but opponents will realize how hard it is to run on the Saints when they line up Jenkins and Hicks as two thirds of their defensive line.
Sleeper: OT Terron Armstead
The small school prospect out of Arkansas Pine-Bluff that wowed everyone at the combine by running the 40 like he was running back has a chance to play for the Saints. After wisely letting Jermon Bushrod cash in elsewhere the Saints are looking at Charles Brown as their new LT. The Saints have had a habit of taking unknown linemen and turning them into legitimate starters (you probably still have no idea who Jermon Bushrod is). Brown has been patiently waiting for his chance but I think Armstead has a shot to unseat him. Armstead has great athleticism and while the transition from small school to the NFL is tough the Saints have pulled it off with guys like Bushrod and Jahri Evans before.
Overall Analysis:
Another small class that I really like because Vaccaro, Armstead and Jenkins have a chance to contribute right away. I like Kenny Stills where they got him because he has enough talent to gamble on and gambling with a fifth round pick on a guy with that much talent is a good move for a good team. I have to admit I don’t have the slightest idea who Rufus Johnson is or where Tarleton State is but the Saints are taking a shot on an athlete they think they can turn into an OLB for their defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
43. Jonathan Banks CB
73. Mike Glennon QB
100. Akeem Spence DT
126. William Gholston DE
147. Steven Means DE
189. Mike James RB
Immediate Impact: CB Jonathan Banks
Banks will be heard from either as a starter or a third CB and that could happen a number of different ways. If Darrelle Revis isn’t ready at the start of the season then Banks will start opposite Eric Wright and if Revis is ready then Banks will challenge Wright for a starting spot and I wouldn’t bet against him. Even if he doesn’t start Banks gives the Bucs someone they can bring in as the third CB and he can play the outside while Revis slides inside to cover the slot receiver. Banks will play a lot and I think he starts more games than he doesn’t.
Best Value: DT Akeem Spence
There is a job opening next to Gerald McCoy at DT and Spence might be the surprise winner of that job. Spence is a tad short but he’s a beast inside and next to McCoy he could really do some damage. None of the other DT’s on the Bucs roster have distinguished themselves so Spence has a good chance to show what he can do and the fact that he was available in the fourth round is astounding.
Sleeper: DE William Gholston
The physical ability is all there and Gholston looks imposing getting off the bus but unfortunately he has never translated that to the field consistently. If Gholston can learn some technique and apply it on the field he could be a devastating player at DE. There is no guarantee the Da’Quan Bowers will stay healthy and Adrian Clayborn is coming off an injury so there is a need for some depth at DE.
Overall Analysis:
Another small draft class in this division but that doesn’t mean they won’t make a difference. Banks and Spence will make a difference whether they start or not and Gholston is oozing with potential. The drafting of QB Mike Glennon was interesting as the Buccaneers brought in competition for Josh Freeman going into a contract year, while it is unlikely Glennon would steal the starting job from Freeman it certainly puts Freeman on notice. DE Steven Means is unlikely to make an impact but RB Mike James could possibly contribute in the backfield now that LaGarrette Blount has been shipped out and Doug Martin may need a breather from time to time.
The Hott Read 