2013 NFL Draft Analysis
AFC South
Houston Texans
27. DeAndre Hopkins WR
57. DJ Swearinger FS
89. Brennan Williams OT
95. Sam Montgomery OLB
124. Trevardo Williams OLB
176. David Quessenberry OT
195. Alan Bonner WR
198. Chris Jones DT
201. Ryan Griffin QB
Immediate Impact: WR DeAndre Hopkins
The Texans desperately need help at WR as Andre Johnson is the only sure thing they have at the position. Kevin Walter was cut and DeVier Posey was injured during the playoffs and isn’t likely to be back soon enough to be a major contributor meaning Hopkins steps in as the likely starter opposite Johnson. There were WR’s on the board that I liked better but Hopkins was in the group of guys slated to go late 1st to early 2nd round so he was a solid pick. Hopkins can be a great compliment to Johnson I’m just not sure his ceiling is high enough to eventually replace Johnson as the top guy. Solid choice for a team with a glaring need that is looking to get farther in the playoffs.
Best Value: OLB Sam Montgomery
Montgomery played DE at LSU but he projects best as a pass rushing OLB in the Texans 3-4 and that is good fit for him if they try to play him at DE in their 3-4 it’s a bad fit. Getting him late in the 3rd round was great value considering this team needs someone to replace Connor Barwin in their OLB rotation. Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus project as the starters but it’s always a good idea to have a third pass rusher and Montgomery can be that guy.
Sleeper: OT Brennan Williams
To say that the RT spot on the Texans offensive line is underwhelming would be a huge understatement. Derek Newton and Ryan Harris aren’t keeping DE’s up at night trying to figure out how to beat them. Williams has his question marks (injured shoulder) and it may take some time but I won’t be the least bit surprised when he takes over the starting job at RT. Williams has all the physical tools to be a starting RT, he may never be a Pro Bowl level guy but his talent will eventually land him in the starting lineup.
Overall Analysis:
This is a solid draft that will produce a few starters and a couple of key reserves for a team fighting for a Super Bowl berth. Hopkins is a starter right away, Williams could steal the RT job at any point and Montgomery should make a solid situational pass rusher early. FS DJ Swearinger is an excellent pick up for a team that is counting on Ed Reed at FS. Reed is an all-time great at the position but he’s coming to the end of his Hall of Fame career and he’s battling injuries. Swearinger is a kid that can learn from Reed and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up playing more snaps than Reed. Reed may be the starter but Swearinger should bring the attitude this team has lacked for a long time in its secondary. OLB Trevardo Williams, OT David Quessenberry and 6th round QB Ryan Griffin could all be nice developmental players for down the road but it will be tough for nine draft picks to all make the roster of a playoff team. The only issue I have with this draft was not taking an ILB to get some depth behind Brian Cushing and Darryl Sharpton as both players have been known to miss time.
Indianapolis Colts
24. Bjoern Werner OLB
86. Hugh Thornton OG
121. Khaled Holmes C
139. Montori Hughes DT
192. John Boyett FS
230. Kerwynn Williams RB
254. Justice Cunningham TE
Immediate Impact: Last year’s draft class
I’m taking a pass here because I’m not sure anyone in this class is going to come in and make an immediate impact on this team. Top pick Werner is going to spend most of the year learning how to be an OLB in a 3-4 and I don’t think it’s going to be a quick transition. As a pass rusher he can be effective on passing downs but he’s going to struggle doing some of the other things LB’s need to do. Last year’s class brought a lot of impact especially on the offensive side of the ball; QB Andrew Luck, WR TY Hilton, RB Vick Ballard, TE Dwayne Allen and TE Coby Fleener will all be vital parts of the offense this year.
Best Value: C Khaled Holmes
The Colts drafted players pretty much where they were expected to go so I am going with Holmes because they got him in the fourth round and he could potentially be a starter. Holmes will have to beat out Samson Satele who is returning from an injury but the Colts shipped out back-up center A.Q. Shipley to Baltimore so they must have some confidence that Holmes can step in if Satele doesn’t hold up. Holmes isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but he’s a technician at center and he could beat out Satele straight up.
Sleeper: DT Montori Hughes
The Colts have Aubrayo Franklin at nose tackle in their 3-4 defense and Hughes was just a fifth round selection but Franklin is on the downside of his career and as they say “you can’t teach size”. Hughes is a load at 6’4 329 lbs. and he is built to play NT. In order for the Colts defense to work they need a steady presence in the middle and while Hughes may never be a big playmaker that isn’t what is asked of a NT. If Hughes can stay out of trouble and learn the tricks of the trade from the veteran Franklin he could become a mainstay of the Colts defense down the road.
Overall Analysis:
Last year’s draft class set the bar pretty high for GM Ryan Grigson and it’s is highly unlikely that this class could ever live up to that lofty standard. Werner has a chance to be a good player although I question his fit in this defense. Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes will provide competition and possibly production that is sorely needed on the interior of the offensive line. The rest of the class brings potential down the line and hopefully depth to a team that surprisingly made the playoffs last year. It’s tough to be critical of Grigson after pulling off such a quick turnaround but this draft will largely be judged on what Werner becomes whether that is fair or not. I really liked Werner as a 4-3 DE but I’m skeptical of his transition to OLB and I think it might limit his ceiling.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Luke Joeckel OT
33. Jonathan Cyprien SS
64. Dwayne Gratz CB
101. Ace Sanders WR
135. Denard Robinson RB/WR
169. Josh Evans FS
208. Jeremy Harris CB
210. Demetrius McCray CB
Immediate Impact: OT Luke Joeckel, SS Jonathan Cyprien, CB Dwayne Gratz
The Jaguars were 2-14 for a reason last year and that reason was the lack of talent on the roster. The offseason left a number of holes to be filled and the Jaguars took as close to a sure thing in any draft as they could in new starting RT Luke Joeckel. Joeckel won’t have to fend of anyone for the starting spot and he gives the Jaguars cover next offseason if they decide LT Eugene Monroe isn’t worth the expense. Cyprien and Gratz walk into the same scenario in the secondary as their absolutely no competition for Cyprien at SS and Gratz becomes the top CB by default. By the way, Gratz is a number one corner in name only.
Best Value: CB Dwayne Gratz
The Jaguars found their new number one CB in the third round of the draft so I guess that is value but it’s a fake value. Gratz is the top corner by default because the Jaguars have no one else on the roster that can even fake it. I would like Gratz a whole lot more if he was lining up opposite a true number one with a good slot corner covering the inside. Gus Bradley’s defense is a work in progress and it probably won’t be pretty this year as they need more help in the secondary and rushing the passer.
Sleeper: WR Ace Sanders
Given the fact that Justin Blackmon is facing a four game suspension to start the year the Jaguars are going to need playmakers to step up and help Blaine Gabbert and I have little faith the newly signed WR Mohamed Massaquoi is the answer. Massaquoi will likely start opposite Cecil Shorts but his value there is that he allows Ace Sanders to operate in the slot where he can be an effective weapon. Sanders is built to be a slot receiver, he’s undersized and shifty and Gabbert needs to remember back to his days at Missouri and get the ball out of his hands quickly to guys like Sanders who can actually do something with it.
Overall Analysis:
Joeckel, Cyprien and Gratz are all unquestioned starters while Sanders gives them a potential playmaker at slot receiver and returner. They are taking a shot with Denard Robinson, a man without a position, and hoping he’ll find a way to make plays for them. They didn’t take him until the fifth round so it’s a worthwhile gamble. The fact that they drafted a FS and two more CB’s with their last three picks should tell you how they feel about their secondary. The fact that all five defensive backs they drafted will not only make the roster but Jeremy Harris could start opposite Gratz should tell you just how dire the reality of the situation is. This team is primed for a last minute veteran addition to the secondary but they covered themselves if they don’t sign anyone. Like I said their defense will not be pretty.
Tennessee Titans
10. Chance Warmack OG
34. Justin Hunter WR
70. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB
97. Zaviar Gooden OLB
107. Brian Schwenke C
142. Lavar Edwards DE
202. Kahlid Wooten CB
248. Daimion Stafford FS
Immediate Impact: OG Chance Warmack
Interior offensive linemen rarely make an impact that the casual fan will observe but this could be the exception since I think many will observe the impact the addition of Warmack (along with free agent Andy Levitre) will have on RB Chris Johnson. We all know Johnson has loads of talent and now he will have no more excuses for his ineffectiveness. Warmack might be a once in a generation guard and if the Titans can get some decent center play to go with elite guards Levitre and Warmack and solid tackles Michael Roos and Dave Stewart then the running game should be able to carry the load.
Best Value: C Brian Schwenke
This is the reason I disagreed with the Cowboys taking Travis Frederick in the first round of the draft. Yes Frederick is going to be a starter but if they had drafted Schwenke in the third round they would have gotten a starting center in the third round which is pretty good value. They Titans got lucky getting a tough guy like Schwenke in the fourth round and their starting center Fernando Velasco is definitely beatable. At the very least he brings competition for the starting center spot and a very good back-up at guard.
Sleeper: I want to say Schwenke but I won’t. CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson
I’ll go with the guy with the funny name. Wreh-Wilson is a tall corner that teams really like given the explosion of big WR’s in the NFL. Wreh-Wilson doesn’t bring the physicality you would like out of a big corner and he’s a little stiff in the hips but the Titans don’t have much beyond Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner.
Overall Analysis:
I love Warmack and Schwenke they can be the anchors of the offensive line for the next ten years. I like Wreh-Wilson especially where they got him, the third round. LB Zaviar Gooden is an excellent athlete who needs some work but he can play in the NFL and could make a very good special team’s guy. I think Justin Hunter is an exceptional talent but I question this team taking him. They already have a supremely talented WR that they can’t count on because of off the field issues, Kenny Britt. It would be nice if Hunter can give them a nice replacement incase Britt becomes more trouble than he’s worth but Hunter has had his issues too. There seemed to be a theme with Tennessee Volunteers (and former Volunteers) in the draft this year. Corderrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Da’Rick Rogers and Tyler Bray all had character questions going into the draft and it cost them all, Patterson less than the rest. The last three picks (Edwards, Wooten and Stafford) could all stick on the roster at spots that need depth so they have that going for them.
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