2013 NFL Draft Analysis
I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division. I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
20. Kyle Long OL
50. Jon Bostic LB
117. Khaseem Greene OLB
163. Jordan Mills OT
188. Cornelius Washington DE
236. Marquess Wilson WR
Immediate Impact: OL Kyle Long
The Bears better hope that Long makes an immediate impact because their offensive line is simply offensive. He is long on talent but short on experience so it will be trial by fire for the NFL legacy (yep, he’s Howie’s kid and Chris’ brother). He is listed as an OG by and he could excel inside but I’m not going to discount the possibility that he can compete at RT. He certainly has more upside than anyone else competing at that position. The Bears know what they have in J’Marcus Webb, Gabe Carimi and Jonathan Scott and none of it is real impressive. Regardless of which position he ends up playing Long will bring some fire to the line and he may just be the most talented player on the line although that isn’t exactly high praise considering his competition.
Best Value: LB Khaseem Greene
Greene is a serious talent and on a team that needs to get younger and more athletic at LB getting him in the fourth round of the draft is a steal. The Bears still have Lance Briggs and they signed some older veterans like DJ Williams and James Anderson but it won’t be long before their second round pick Jon Bostic and Greene are starting at MLB and OLB respectively.
Sleepers: DE Cornelius Washington, WR Marquess Wilson
The Bears did fantastic at the end of this draft grabbing a couple of supremely talented players that have some questions. Washington was a guy playing OLB opposite Jarvis Jones at Georgia and while he never put up eye-popping numbers like Jones he was a pretty solid player. Washington will be better off lining up at DE for the Bears and rushing the passer and I can see him making a real contribution to their rotation. Wilson has some character concerns after he quit the team at Washington St. after conflicts with the coaching staff. The one thing that isn’t a concern is his talent, a natural pass catcher with good size and decent speed can find a place on the Bears depth chart if he can keep himself in line.
Overall Analysis:
A couple of offensive lineman, a couple of linebackers, a pass rusher and a wide receiver with some talent makes for a pretty good draft class. I would be shocked if all six of these guys didn’t make the Bears roster and five of them could contribute early. This team needed an influx of youth in talent especially at OL and LB and they got it here. Even OT Jordan Mills has some future upside. A lot of people think Kyle Long was a reach in the first round and he was to a certain extent but it was more about the inflated value of offensive linemen early in this draft that pushed Long up and while I like Menelik Watson better as a potential RT for the Bears they certainly have a need both inside and outside that Long could potentially fill.
Detroit Lions
5. Ezekiel Ansah DE
36. Darius Slay CB
65. Larry Warford OG
132. Devin Taylor DE
165. Sam Martin P
171. Corey Fuller WR
199. Theo Riddick RB
211. Michael Williams TE
245. Brandon Hepburn ILB
Immediate Impact: DE Ezekiel Ansah, CB Darius Slay, OG Larry Warford
The Lions need all the immediate impact they can get and it may come from more than just these three but these guys come in at immediate need positions and they can all play. Ansah’s only competition for playing time at this point is fellow draftee Devin Taylor and the Lions will give Ansah every opportunity to prove them right. Playing with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the middle should mean Ansah gets less attention outside but it would be nice if someone else steps up at the other DE spot. Slay will have little trouble locking down a starting job unless some veterans play a lot better than they have in the past. Warford is a need inside as the Lions juggle replacing many older players and free agent defections and move parts around to get five good players on the field. Warford may not be in the same class as Warmack or Cooper in this draft but he’s a long term starter at OG in the league.
Best Value: OG Larry Warford
Guard is not a sexy position and it usually gets devalued in the draft but make no mistake good guards can make a difference and Warford is very good. When you get a guy who can start for you for the next 7-10 years in the third round of the draft you are getting great value. Warford has future Pro-Bowl potential.
Sleepers: DE Devin Taylor, WR Corey Fuller
Taylor was better known as South Carolina’s other defensive end; Jadeveon Clowney’s presence has that effect. The problem for Taylor was that Clowney’s presence didn’t elevate his game and teams question why he wasn’t more productive when the opposition had to account for his immensely talented teammate. Taylor looks great getting off the bus, he’s 6’7 with a freakish wingspan and if Detroit’s defensive line coach can get him to live up to just a little bit of that potential on a line featuring Suh, Fairley and Ansah he could be devastating. Fuller is more of a sleeper just because his production suffered last year at Virginia Tech do to a QB that didn’t live up to his hype and an offense that wasn’t able to take advantage of Fuller’s skills. Fuller has a great opportunity in Detroit because of the presence of Calvin Johnson and the dearth of players at the WR position. I won’t be the least bit shocked if Fuller starts more than a few games this year.
Overall Analysis:
Ansah, Slay, Warford, Taylor and Fuller should all contribute early and any draft that gives you five guys like these is a pretty good one. There is bust potential however with all of them so the odds are against all of them working out. Ansah has little experience and is a better athlete than football player. Slay wasn’t even the best CB on his own college team. Warford could eat himself out of the league (this is true of most OG’s). Taylor could be as ineffective as he was in college and Fuller has some holes in his game. I’m not a big proponent of drafting kickers or punters and I don’t like taking them in the fifth round but when you have a lot of picks and you really like a guy it’s understandable. I like this draft and I think the Lions will have more hits than misses here.
Green Bay Packers
26. Datone Jones DE
61. Eddie Lacy RB
109. David Bakhtiari OT
122. J.C. Tretter OG
125. Johnathan Franklin RB
159. Michah Hyde DB
167. Josh Boyd DT
193. Nate Palmer OLB
216. Charles Johnson WR
224. Kevin Dorsey WR
232. Sam Barrington ILB
Immediate Impact: DE Datone Jones, RB Eddie Lacy
Jones was the biggest tweener in this draft. He isn’t fast enough to be a 4-3 DE, he’s too big to be a 3-4 OLB and he’s not big enough to be a 4-3 DT so being a DE in the Packers 3-4 defense should be the perfect fit. He’ll bring more pass rushing ability than your normal 3-4 DE and they could use it since Clay Matthews is about the only guy that brings consistent pressure. Jones may have landed in the perfect spot. Eddie Lacy was thought to be the best back in the draft by many, not by me, but by many. Lacy brings a whole lot of talent to a backfield that has been yearning for it. It’s not a coincidence that the Packers took two RB’s in this draft and Lacy is going to get the opportunity to prove he’s the right guy. He’s big and physical and he should help immensely in short yardage and goal line situations.
Best Value: RB Johnathan Franklin
Franklin has holes in his game (pass protection for one) but getting the all-time leading rusher at UCLA in fourth round is damn good value. Franklin knows how to play and he knows how to read a block and follow it. Lacy gets all the press but Franklin may end up being the better back in the end. Whether Franklin usurps Lacy or compliments him his value at the 125th pick is enormous.
Sleeper: DB Micah Hyde
Call me homer if you want but I’ve spent the last four years watching Micah Hyde develop and he is exactly what the NFL is looking for in the secondary. Hyde played corner for all but a couple of games in his Hawkeye career and he’s still listed at CB but I think he ends up playing FS and he can compete for playing time in this depth chart. Green Bay’s safeties are anything but spectacular and Hyde has a lot of experience in coverage and he isn’t afraid to come up in run support. The current NFL has a trend of really good slot receivers and very talented TE’s and teams need safeties that can cover both yet still be able to tackle. Hyde has good size, both height and weight, and solid cover skills and there is an opportunity to make some noise in the Packers secondary.
Overall Analysis:
Jones and Lacy come in with the expectation of playing a lot if not starting. Franklin can be a situational back and I think Hyde competes for playing time. OT David Bakhtiari has a chance to compete at RT with Marshall Newhouse and Derrick Sherrod since the Packers are moving Bryan Bulaga to LT. OL J.C. Tretter and DT Josh Boyd are two developmental guys that could be solid back-ups now and turn into something down the road. I don’t see the rest of the guys making much of an impact on the roster unless they can distinguish themselves as valuable special team’s players for now. Good team’s rosters are hard to crack for later round players and that’s because the depth has already been built through good drafting.
Minnesota Vikings
23. Sharrif Floyd DT
25. Xavier Rhodes CB
29. Corderrelle Patterson WR
120. Gerald Hodges LB
155. Jeff Locke P
196. Jeff Baca OG
213. Michael Mauti LB
214. Travis Bond OG
229. Everett Dawkins DT
Immediate Impact: DT Sharrif Floyd, CB Xavier Rhodes, WR Corderrelle Patterson
This is a team that is going for it. Three first round draft picks that should all have immediate and long lasting impact on this franchise. Sharrif Floyd should step in and start next to Kevin Williams this year and he will be the future anchor of the line replacing Williams. Xavier Rhodes steps into fill the shoes of the departed Antoine Winfield and he gives the Vikings a big physical corner to pair with Chris Cook, call it the Seattle Seahawk plan. Corderrelle Patterson doesn’t have to fill in the entire production of Percy Harvin given that the Vikings signed Greg Jennings to be the #1 WR but Patterson gives the Vikes a player with a skill set closer to Harvin’s and he and Jennings give them two good WR’s instead of just one. This haul should be enough for the Vikings but they actually got some other pieces too.
Best Value: LB Gerald Hodges
The Vikings seem to have every intention of moving Erin Henderson from weak side LB to the middle meaning Hodges is going to get every chance to grab the weak side job. Hodges comes from Penn State, aka Linebacker U, and while he isn’t as heralded as previous alumni Hodges can play. The Vikings need LB’s and getting a likely starter in the fourth round, especially when you don’t have a second or third rounder, is great value.
Sleeper: DT Everett Dawkins
I really wanted to give this spot to Michael Mauti the other Penn State linebacker the Vikings drafted. Mauti was the heart and soul of Penn State’s defense the past couple of years and is a guy you want to cheer for but injuries have taken their toll and I’m not sure how long he can last if he does get a shot to play. Dawkins could be in a perfect position to sit for a year or two and show the Vikings that when Kevin Williams hangs them up they have a ready-made replacement to start next to Sharrif Floyd. Dawkins is a quick penetrating DT that is a little undersized but if he puts on a little weight over the next year or two he could be quite the seventh round find.
Overall Analysis:
The Vikings are doing everything they can capitalize on their unexpected success from this past year. Some may question trading away a playmaker like Harvin for a pick but he had become more trouble than he was worth. Trading a couple of picks to get back into the end of the first round was bold but I think all three first round picks will make a difference. The Vikings got lucky that a talent like Floyd fell into their laps but they also made their own luck by still getting the two players they wanted in CB Xavier Rhodes and WR Corderrelle Patterson. At worst their later picks give them some depth on the offensive line and at linebacker and they may prove to be more than depth at linebacker. I don’t like drafting punters but the Vikings are going with Locke as their starter so it’s hard to argue with that.
The Hott Read 