2013 NFL Draft Analysis
I’m going to go over each team’s draft and I’ll break it down by division. I’m not giving out grades because that’s just foolish the week after the draft so I tell you what I think about certain players and an overview of what each team did or didn’t do.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
32. Matt Elam SS
56. Arthur Brown ILB
94. Brandon Williams DT
129. John Simon OLB
130. Kyle Juszczyk FB
168. Ricky Wagner OT
200. Kapron Lewis-Moore DT
203. Ryan Jensen OT
238. Aaron Mellette WR
247. Marc Anthony CB
Immediate Impact: SS Matt Elam, ILB Arthur Brown
The Super Bowl Champion Ravens went into the draft with two huge holes to fill at safety and linebacker due to the free agent departure of Ed Reed and the retirement of Ray Lewis and Ozzie Newsome came through again. Elam and Brown are fantastic players that are ready to play right away and they will bring youth and talent to a defense that needs an injection of both. Before the draft the Ravens were counting on the perpetually injured Jameel McClain and the total head case Rolando McClain to start in the middle of the defense but now they have Brown and he’s a much better bet. Elam should team with newly signed free agent Michael Huff to form a new duo at the safety position and Elam will make an impact.
Best Value: ILB Arthur Brown
Most teams devalue the middle or inside linebacker position and Newsome took advantage by waiting and then swooping in and grabbing Brown with the 56th pick. The Ravens understand the value on the field of a player with Brown’s skill set and they know how to use him. Brown’s position was the reason he was available in the second round not his talent.
Sleeper: OT Ricky Wagner
Maybe this comes from three years of watching Wagner in the Big Ten but I have a hard time believing he won’t stick and at the very least give the Ravens a very solid swing tackle. The reason he is a sleeper is that he started for two years at LT (and one before that at RT) for one of the best offensive lines in college football and I have little faith in the Ravens OT’s not named Michael Oher. The team just re-signed Bryant McKinnie but I don’t know if he can hold up for a whole season anymore. Wagner offers the flexibility to either swing Oher to LT or leave him at RT and play Wagner when McKinnie inevitably breaks down. Wagner is not impressive in his Under Armour jumping or running but he knows how to block. He may not be a long term starting solution but I wouldn’t bet against him.
Overall Analysis:
I have a hard time believing the ten draft picks will make the defending Super Bowl Champions but they did grab players at positions they need like WR (Aaron Mellette) CB (Marc Anthony) and offensive line (Wagner and Ryan Jensen) so at least they create competition at the end of their roster. Ozzie Newsome and his staff are as good at drafting as anyone in the league and Elam and Brown will prove that this year. DT Brandon Williams (round 3), OLB John Simon (round 4) and FB Kyle Juszczyk (round 4) may prove it somewhere down the line. Hard to argue with the man who just built a Super Bowl winner mostly through the draft.
Cincinnati Bengals
21. Tyler Eifert TE
37. Giovani Bernard RB
53. Margus Hunt DE
84. Shawn Williams SS
118. Sean Porter OLB
156. Tanner Hawkinson OT
190. Rex Burkhead RB
197. Cobi Hamilton WR
240. Reid Fragel OT
251. TJ Johnson C
Immediate Impact: TE Tyler Eifert, RB Giovani Bernard
The Bengals need someone to take the pressure off of AJ Green in the passing game and Eifert is the best pass catching TE in the draft. He can dominate on the inside and split out wide when needed. The Bengals didn’t take a WR until late meaning they plan on giving their picks from last year another chance but it also means they think Eifert will make an impact. Bernard is simply the best back in this draft (sorry Eddie Lacy) and he fits the new mold of the NFL. I won’t be the least bit shocked when he’s stealing time from BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he could be the next Ray Rice, he has that sort of skill set. I haven’t decided who I think will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year but these two certainly are candidates.
Best Value: SS Shawn Williams
Drafting your starting strong safety with the 84th pick in the draft is getting pretty good value. Williams walks into the perfect spot to take the starting job. He’s an in the box safety that will be slightly more adept in coverage than Taylor Mays which isn’t setting the bar very high but the Bengals will take it. I don’t think Williams will be making the Pro Bowl anytime soon but he’ll be starting quickly and probably for a while.
Sleeper: OLB Sean Porter
The Bengals signed James Harrison to be their new OLB but Harrison is no spring chicken and his fit in the Bengals defense is questionable. Porter did a nice job as a pass rushing OLB in college and while he may look like just a back-up weakside LB I can see him stealing some time on the strongside if Harrison isn’t adequate.
Overall Analysis:
The Bengals also had ten picks and even though they weren’t the Super Bowl Champions like the Ravens I have a hard time seeing all of these players making this team. That said their first five picks, the four mentioned above and DE Margus Hunt, could give them five guys that can contribute. Hunt is an interesting player given his sheer size and the Bengals actually have two tall DE’s already in Carlos Dunlop and Michael Johnson so all three together could make throwing lanes harder to find.
Cleveland Browns
6. Barkevious Mingo OLB
68. Leon McFadden CB
175. Jamoris Slaughter SS
217. Armonty Bryant DE
227. Garrett Gilkey OT
Immediate Impact: OLB Barkevious Mingo
There isn’t a lot to choose from here and the Browns better hope Mingo makes an immediate impact because they passed on the draft’s best CB Dee Milliner and took Mingo who didn’t really look like a need. There has been a lot of talk about the Brown’s plans for Jabaal Sheard (trade him, move him to DE) and that only makes sense if Mingo is ready to be the starter at OLB opposite Paul Kruger. With Sheard, Kruger and Quentin Groves OLB didn’t look like the place the Browns would go but they went for Mingo’s high upside. I like Mingo at OLB for a 3-4 team more than I liked him at DE for a 4-3 team but I would have taken Milliner.
Best Value: Next year’s draft picks
GM Mike Lombardi apparently didn’t think much of this draft which is why he only used five picks this year but he did something that may pay off in the end. He traded a 2013 fourth round pick for a 2014 third round pick and a 2013 fifth round pick for a 2014 fourth round pick. Yep, he upgraded two picks this year to better rounds next year in a draft that most believe will be better than this year’s draft. Lombardi didn’t take a QB from this year’s less than stellar crop opting to put the team in the hands of Brandon Weeden or Jason Campbell and yet he grabbed some ammunition. Now if they aren’t picking high enough next year to grab a QB he likes he can go up and get one. Next year’s QB crop has the chance to be far superior to this year’s and Lombardi is obviously taking the long view at the position.
Sleeper: CB Leon McFadden
It’s tough to call a guy that is so obviously going to start a sleeper but I don’t see anyone else in this very small draft class making any noise. McFadden was a third round pick and you can argue better CB’s were on the board (I like Logan Ryan and Blidi Wreh-Wilson myself) but he was a third round value like them and the Browns have no one opposite Joe Haden.
Overall Analysis:
I understand what the Browns are trying to do grabbing Mingo in the first round. New defensive coordinator Ray Horton needs playmakers and Mingo has a high upside but he also has really high bust potential. Hindsight is always 20/20 but here’s the reason I don’t think you pass on the best player at his position (CB Dee Milliner) when you need that position too. The Browns ended up with Mingo and McFadden as potential starters on their defense but they could have had Milliner at CB and either Damontre Moore (who went #81), Corey Lemonier (#88) or Sam Montgomery (#95) at OLB and I like any of those combinations better.
Pittsburgh Steelers
17. Jarvis Jones OLB
48. LeVeon Bell RB
79. Markus Wheaton WR
111. Shamarko Thomas SS
115. Landry Jones QB
150. Terry Hawthorne CB
186. Justin Brown WR
206. Vince Williams ILB
223. Nicholas Williams DT
Immediate Impact: OLB Jarvis Jones
Okay so I gushed over this guy in my mock drafts and my initial analysis and that will continue here. One of my picks for Co-defensive rookie of the year Jones steps immediately into the OLB spot vacated by James Harrison (sorry Jason Worilds you will continue to be a back-up). Jones couldn’t be a more natural fit for this attacking 3-4 defense and he’s going to be a double digit sack man without a doubt. I still cannot believe Jones fell to 17th pick and the Steelers got this lucky.
Best Value: OLB Jarvis Jones (seriously it’s crazy), WR Markus Wheaton, QB Landry Jones
If there is one thing the Steelers did as well if not better than everyone was get value at their picks. Arguably their first five picks were great value. Jarvis Jones never should have fallen to 17th (okay I’m done). Markus Wheaton will step in right away in their three WR sets and he won’t miss a beat and Landry Jones lasted until the fourth round. Landry Jones is a guy that could develop into a starter in the NFL at some point and the Steelers needed some new young blood behind Roethlisberger because he is bound to miss a game or two and Charlie Batch can’t play forever.
Sleeper: WR Markus Wheaton
Wheaton is a lot like Mike Wallace in stature and playing style. Wheaton is also a natural WR with instincts. He can step into Wallace’s role and that means Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders can continue to develop in the roles they have been in. Brown and Sanders are ready to step in as starters but Wheaton’s presence means they don’t have to change to Wallace’s position in the three WR sets. Wheaton is a dark horse to have a really good year if he develops a rapport with Roethlisberger.
Overall Analysis:
It is drafts like this that are the reason the Steelers are always good. Jarvis Jones is an instant impact starter. LeVeon Bell is an immediate replacement for Mendenhall. Wheaton can step into Mike Wallace’s place and allow Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders to continue to develop. Shamarko Thomas can give Polamalu a breather and eventually replace him one day. Landry Jones is a developmental QB who can spot start when Big Ben is injured and even CB Terry Hawthorne could surprise if he can stay healthy as he fits the Steelers preference at CB. One of the best run organizations in football just keeps chugging along.
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