The Hott Read 4/26/13

My First Round Initial Thoughts

• Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel going 1 and 2 is not too surprising.  Pretty equal in terms of grades and yes the Jaguars do need another tackle.
• The Dolphins make a leap up the draft board which had everyone on the NFL Network set convinced they were coming up for Lane Johnson and then…Dion Jordan.  Jared Odrick isn’t cut out to be a 4-3 DE and Jordan gives Cameron Wake a lot of help.  I really don’t want to like this move but they only gave up a second round pick (they have another one) to move up 9 spots to take a shot on Jordan.  They needed Johnson more but if they make the Branden Albert trade they could be much improved next year.
• If you don’t think the NFL is a passing league look at this; first 6 picks= 3 pass blocker, 3 pass rushers.   And no RB’s in the first round since the 1960’s.
• Dee Milliner falls to the Jets at #9.  I was really hoping the Jets would blow this pick but I really like Milliner.  Luckily the Jets had another pick for me to root against.
• I underestimated the offensive linemen in this draft by a spot.  I said six OL could go in the first 12 picks and they went in the first 11.  Fisher, Joeckel, Johnson, Cooper, Warmack and Fluker all went.  Glad I made some predictions outside of my mock draft because I went 0-32.  Although outside of some people predicting the Fisher/Joeckel 1-2 thing this draft did not go according to most predictions.
• Another prediction I was right about was the late rising player.  DJ Hayden went to the Raiders #12 overall after they traded down.  Reggie McKenzie got the player he wanted at a spot where he was valued and picked up a pick, he is the anti-Al Davis.
• The Jets had a chance to take one of the two top DT in the draft, Star Lotulelei or Sharrif Floyd, either of whom would have fit their defensive scheme very well.  Instead they selected the 3^rd best DT in the draft Sheldon Richardson.  I like Richardson and the #13 pick is about where he was projected but he isn’t a great schematic fit and there were better players at that position on the board.  Thank you Jets now I’m not so pissed about the Milliner pick.
• The Buffalo Bills had traded down from the 8^th pick (good move there was no one there they wanted) and with the 16^th pick they took their QB of the future (or present)…EJ Manuel.  That groan you hear is a collective groan from Geno Smith (“I’m not the first QB off the board?”), Ryan Nassib (“My college coach picked a different QB?”), Chip Kelly (“damn it I don’t want anybody else”) and finally EJ Manuel (“Not the Bills…”).  This was a little high for Manuel but I give the Bills credit, they traded down and Buddy Nix took a shot.  Manuel is probably the biggest boom or bust QB in the draft (Tyler Bray is a close second but he was never in the 1^st round conversation) and unfortunately he goes to a Bills team whose recent track record with QB’s is atrocious.  Good Luck EJ.
• Jarvis Jones goes the Pittsburgh Steelers…ladies and gentlemen your 2013 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year…hold that thought someone else is going to make a play for that honor in minute…
• The San Francisco 49ers trade up into the Cowboys spot to get S Eric Reid from LSU.  Reid’s draft stock has been up and down like a yo-yo.  He’s pretty good and he’s a very solid replacement for Dashon Goldson.
• Back-to-back offensive linemen; Justin Pugh to the Giants and Kyle Long to the Bears.  Pugh is listed as an OT but might be better suited to guard which is perfect for the Giants because they have made a habit out of turning decent O-linemen into a good unit.  Kyle Long is listed as a Guard but I think they should give him a shot at RT.  He has the athleticism and the demeanor you want at RT.
• Cincinnati took Tyler Eifert…he had to go somewhere…Andy Dalton should be happy.
• The Atlanta Falcons make a move and now my Defensive Rookie of the Year just became my Co-Defensive Rookies of the Year.  Atlanta gets the best cover corner in the draft Desmond Trufant and he instantly becomes a starter on a damn good playoff team.  Sorry Jarvis you are going to have to share that award.
• Sharrif Floyd’s nightmare evening ends as the Minnesota Vikings dream draft begins.   Floyd was widely considered a top 5 talent and no worse than top 10 yet he slides to #23 and the Vikings pounce.  Maybe someday we will know the story why Floyd dropped and while I haven’t been his biggest fan he is serious value here.  The Vikings defensive line just got scary good and the Vikings have Kevin Williams’ eventual replacement.  Their dream continued at #25 when one of the better and more physical CB’s Xavier Rhodes fell into their laps.  A top 15 talent at #25 is fantastic.  Then the Vikings made a bold move and traded back into the end of the first round at #29 and took one of the top WR’s in the draft Corderrelle Patterson from Tennessee.  Pairing Patterson with Greg Jennings means Christian Ponder has no excuses.
• The Texans came the closest to giving me a correct pick in the first round, I had them taking WR Keenan Allen and they took WR DeAndre Hopkins.  So close…I can’t take credit though because everyone had them taking a WR.
• The Patriots proved one of my other predictions half right.  The Pats traded out of the first round but if wasn’t so a team could come back in for a QB it was for the Vikings bold move for a WR.  Is it bad that I was actually hoping my favorite team would trade out of the first round because I was afraid they would draft either a CB or WR that would suck?  I think it means I care because I don’t want them to do anything to hurt themselves.
• St. Louis made some moves.  They traded up early to get Tavon Austin and they did it because they loved Austin and they had the ammunition to do it and they didn’t give up their other 1st rounder.  They traded down with their later pick and ended up taking Alec Ogletree 30^th overall.  Ogletree is a million dollar talent that needs to keep his head on straight.  He’s extremely athletic and can play any of the Rams LB spots but the best thing for him is he is going to a team with a veteran head coach (Jeff Fisher) and some very strong leaders that are good people on defense (James Laurinaitis and Chris Long).
• The Big Ten did not get shut of the first round like many were predicting.  The Dallas Cowboys had traded down to San Francisco’s spot at #31 and they obliged the Big Ten with a pick.  Jonathan Hankins and Kawann Short, the two DT out of the Big Ten were seen as the most likely guys to save the conference and the Cowboys certainly need DT’s so it was a natural fit when Jerry Jones phoned in the pick.  When Roger Goodell said “With the 31^st pick in the 2013 draft the Dallas Cowboys select Travis Frederick, center, University of Wisconsin” my chin nearly hit the floor.  Jones is creeping in on Al Davis territory.  Frederick is a perfectly nice center but perfectly nice centers go at the end of the 3^rd round not the end of the first.  Thanks Jerry at least the Big Ten had a first round pick but couldn’t you have at least made it a defensible one.
• The Ravens ended the first round with SS Matt Elam from Florida.  I told you they weren’t going to go ILB in the first round and let me explain why.  MLB or ILB is not a premium position in the NFL, more proof it’s a passing league.  LB’s that can only play two downs (i.e. Manti Te’o, Kevin Minter) don’t have the value of other positions.  The only inside or middle LB to go in the first round was Alec Ogletree to the Rams at #30 and he isn’t going to play MLB in St. Louis.  He got drafted because he is a three down LB.
• The Names that didn’t get picked.  Manti Te’o was the hot top on the NFL Network set and every time the Vikings drafted (and the picked 3 times) everybody kept saying “here goes Te’o” but he never did…why?  Let me say it again… Two down LB.  Geno Smith sat in the green room all night and never heard his name called.  Apparently 31 teams in the NFL realized what we all knew, there were no 1^st round worthy QB’s in this draft…I guess Buddy Nix didn’t get that memo.  I was wrong about the late 1^st round QB run and I’m glad I was because it means teams are at least as smart as I am.  By the way on Friday night (rounds 2&3) I expect to hear the names Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Tyler Bray and possibly Landry Jones all get called.  Too many teams need QB’s.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have the first pick of the second round and while they could still draft Damontre Moore like I suggested in my mock draft I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Barkley is their pick.