My Second 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Post Scouting Combine after the first wave of Free Agent signings)
This Mock Draft is not based on any knowledge of what teams are thinking it is based on a combination of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do, if only they would take my advice.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
The Chiefs traded for QB Alex Smith, franchise tagged LT Brandon Albert and then they released RT Eric Winston so a QB is out but an OT is still the pick. Watch out for all of those people jumping off the Joeckel bandwagon and hopping on the Eric Fisher one. Fisher made an impression with his size and athleticism and he’s going to cash a much bigger paycheck because of it but ask the St. Louis Rams how the decision to draft Jason Smith #2 overall in 2009 is working out for them. You don’t draft an offensive lineman because of how he looks in his Under Armour running a 40 yard dash. Andy Reid loves to draft linemen in the first round and he will go the safer route and take Joeckel.
Potential stupid move: Well drafting a QB is out and the trade for Smith makes that pretty well known but they could grab Fisher and I think that’s a reach.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Dee Milliner CB Alabama
After Damontre Moore’s calamitous showing at the Scouting Combine he is certainly not going #2 overall. The Jaguars still need a pass rusher but now that their top three CB’s (Rashean Mathis, Aaron Ross and Derek Cox) are not on their roster anymore they need a CB just so someone is lining up there come training camp. Even if they get someone in free agency every team needs at least three CB’s and Milliner cemented his place in the top 5 with his 4.37 40 time at the Combine. His ascension to the #2 spot is because none of the top pass rushers look like they belong this high up and Milliner put to rest all doubts about himself at the Combine. Milliner doesn’t just look worthy of a high pick he now looks like one of the safest choices on the board.
Potential stupid move: Believing that any of the QB’s in this draft are an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert and no I’m not saying Gabbert is that good I’m saying the QB class is that bad.
3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
I can’t believe I’m suggesting it either but look at the facts. The Raiders need a DL to replace Richard Seymour and with Lotulelei’s heart condition they can’t take him. Werner did not have a good Combine, it wasn’t as bad as Moore’s but he doesn’t look like a top 5 pick right now. Floyd is becoming the darling of a lot of front offices right now because they realize he’s versatile and athletic for a man his size. Every team wants to run multiple defensive fronts throughout a game and having a guy that can do a lot of things is very helpful. Floyd is an ascending player they may only be scratching the surface of his potential. I’m usually pretty risk averse at the top of the draft but I think Floyd was underutilized at Florida and his bowl game performance against Louisville was something to see. At this point the Raiders should take the chance on his potential because great D-linemen are hard to come by and they need a great one.
Potential stupid move: Drafting Cordarrelle Patterson…never mind Al Davis isn’t making this pick so no worries.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
Yes I changed my mind from my first mock draft, that’s why it’s called a mock draft, you can now mock me. Fisher launched himself towards the top 10 at the Senior Bowl and continued to fly up to the top 5 at the Scouting Combine. He is a very good prospect at a premium position and has proven to be one of the better prospects regardless of position in this draft. Since QB’s are seemingly a non-factor this high in the draft and DE being a position of depth but not top heavy on talent OT is the position that will benefit the most. The Eagles have to fix their OL and a healthy Jason Peters plus plugging in Fisher and moving Todd Herremans back inside to guard would be a huge upgrade over last year. There is also the chance the Peters isn’t fully recovered or doesn’t last much longer making Fisher an even more valuable choice.
Potential stupid move: Thinking that Michael Vick is going to be your starting QB next year running Chip Kelly’s offense. I give Vick until half time of the first game before he’s out with an injury.
5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
Conventional wisdom says the Lions go for a CB or a DE given the state of their secondary and defensive line. The truth is they need a CB but there isn’t one worth this spot and I don’t think they are enamored with any of the DE prospects either. Jones seems to have received the medical clearance he needed and he is the best pass rusher in this draft. The Lions don’t run a 3-4 defense, where Jones would likely flourish as a pass rusher, but he has the skills to be an OLB in a 4-3. The Lions should draft him and play him the way the Denver Broncos play Von Miller. It isn’t as if the Lions LB corps is so good that Jones wouldn’t crack the line-up. The other spot the Lions have to be looking at is OT. Jeff Backus has retired and Gosder Cherilus signed with the Indianapolis Colts, the Lions drafted Riley Reiff last year and he will get one of the spots but they still need another tackle. If Fisher makes it past Philadelphia at #4 the Lions have to grab him to protect their investment in Matthew Stafford.
Potential stupid move: I’m not seeing a stupid move the Lions could make here unless they overdraft a CB out of desperation. If they reach a little for Lane Johnson it would be understandable given their need at OT and if they like a DE that would be understandable too.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Chance Warmack OG Alabama
The Browns would love it if Dee Milliner would fall this far but that just isn’t going to happen. I have had the Browns taking a OLB for new defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s 3-4 alignment but with the free agent signings of Paul Kruger from Baltimore and Quentin Groves from Arizona and Jabaal Sheard moving from DE to OLB they should be covered. The best place for the Browns to find value is to grab the best OG to come along in a while. Slotting Warmack in at LG between Joe Thomas and Alex Mack would make the OL pretty good. Mitchell Schwartz came in as a rookie last year and stabilized the RT spot so bringing in Warmack would really solidify the offensive line.
Potential stupid move: Drafting a QB here. They need to solidify the offensive line and get a TE in order to give Brandon Weeden a legitimate chance on offense and see if he can be any good.
7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
It seems unlikely that the Cardinals would go into the season with either Brian Hoyer or Drew Stanton at QB after cutting Kevin Kolb but new GM Steve Keim is smart enough to know not to draft a QB this high. The success the past few years at finding starting QB’s like Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson outside of the first round coupled with new head coach Bruce Arians QB coaching skills will lead Keim to doing what is best and that is taking the LT they so desperately need. Lane Johnson put on a great display of athleticism at the Combine after playing well at the Senior Bowl. Johnson represents the best value for the Cardinals at their most needed position.
Potential stupid move: Drafting Geno Smith or Matt Barkley here and waiting until the second round to address the OT position. Coupling Lane Johnson with a second round QB is a far better value.
8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Somebody has to take a QB too high in this draft and if I were a betting man I would bet on the GM that once gave a $60 million dollar contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick. My feelings on this QB class are pretty obvious but I know QB’s get overvalued especially by teams that have struggled for years to find a good one. Buddy Nix doesn’t have a lot of time left calling the shots in Buffalo and he is going to take a shot on Smith’s potential and it will probably set the Bills back a few years but that won’t stop him. Everyone in the NFL knows you’re only as good as your QB and the Bills haven’t been good at QB since Jim Kelly (don’t start with the Flutie years).
Potential stupid move: This is it. Shooting yourself in the foot is never a good idea.
9. New York Jets (6-10): Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
This team needs a new QB and a new RB, they could use help on the offensive line. They lost their TE (Dustin Keller) to a division rival and some guys on the defensive line (Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha). Derrelle Revis might get traded and their WR corps isn’t exactly stellar. Catching my drift here? This pick could go just about anywhere and be justifiable. The one thing I didn’t mention is the one thing this team has been missing for several years under Rex Ryan and that is a pass rushing OLB. They recently parted ways with several LB’s and they aren’t getting any younger there so Dion Jordan is great value at this spot and just what the team needs on defense. He’s young, athletic and versatile and even if Rex Ryan gets canned at some point in the near future Jordan could transition to just about any defense.
Potential stupid move: Drafting Matt Barkley believing he’s an upgrade over Mark Sanchez, he may eventually be better than Sanchez but he isn’t an immediate upgrade.
10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
I had the Titans taking Chance Warmack in the first mock draft and while that would be moot since I have him going to the Browns in this one I feel like I was right about their needs considering they signed OG Andy Levitre to a huge contract. Since they got Levitre they can turn their attention to other needs and this is a team that has been looking for a top pass rusher for years. Derrick Morgan is a solid DE but not a great pass rusher and Kamerion Wimbley was just a guy last year. This team can afford to take a chance on Ansah’s potential and hope they get the difference maker they need on defense. I haven’t been Ansah’s biggest fan but he has serious potential and he could be the next Jason Pierre-Paul and that is worth the risk to a team that needs to make something happen.
Potential stupid move: This team also needs some new blood at safety but this is too high for S Kenny Vaccaro.
11. San Diego Chargers (7-9): Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
The Chargers have a new young coach (Mike McCoy) and a young GM (Tom Telesco) and a QB in his prime to build around. The best idea would be to rebuild the offensive line in front of said QB and since the top three LT prospects are off the board they should take the next best offensive lineman Cooper. The loss of Louis Vasquez created a hole at OG that Cooper would fill nicely. I didn’t have Cooper going in the first round of my first mock draft but he proved he is worthy by showcasing his athleticism and versatility at the Combine. He isn’t just being looked at as an OG anymore because he showed the ability to play center.
Potential stupid move: Drafting anything but the best offensive lineman on the board. Rivers needs protection and the running game needs a boost (and I’m not talking about Danny Woodhead). Whether they like Cooper or DJ Fluker or another lineman better they need to take the best one available.
12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.
The Dolphins blew up every mock draft known to man with their free agent spending spree. WR Mike Wallace, WR Brandon Gibson and TE Dustin Keller add the weapons the team needs to surround Ryan Tannehill with and Lamar Miller will be given every opportunity to replace the departed Reggie Bush at RB. They also brought in two shiny new LB’s (Dannell Ellerby and Phillip Wheeler) to replace their old models (Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett). They have lost one important free agent so far and that was CB Sean Smith so replacing him should be a priority. LT Jake Long has signed with the Rams making an OT a possibility and they could take Fluker and move Jonathan Martin to LT. Rhodes is more like Smith than Desmond Trufant, the other top CB, and would be a more likely replacement. Rhodes is bigger and more physical like Smith.
Potential stupid move: Paying Mike Wallace like he’s a top three WR in the league…oops…they already did that.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Star Lotulelei DT Utah
This pick could be CB Desmond Trufant and it probably should be but the Buccaneers lost DT Roy Miller and DE Michael Bennett in free agency so getting some help on the defensive line looks like a smart move. Lotulelei is great value here if his heart checks out. The jury is still out on his medical clearance after having to sit out the Combine due to a heart problem detected by the medical staff. For a team that has some undersized LB’s getting a big DT with the talent of Lotulelei at this point in the draft would be a coup. There has been talk about the Bucs trading for Derrelle Revis and if they do that would solidify their interest in the defensive line prospects in the draft. I like Lotulelei better than most of the DE prospects but a guy like Bjoern Werner or Barkevious Mingo can’t be completely dismissed here.
Potential stupid move: Not trading for Derrelle Revis or getting a veteran corner on the free agent market and not taking Trufant here. The Buccaneers need a couple of CB’s for this defense. They ended last year starting Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers, if that doesn’t scream team need I don’t know what does.
14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
This might be the biggest no-brainer for any team in the first round. The best player on Carolina’s defense is MLB Luke Kuechly and he needs better body guards up front. Richardson is a very good penetrating DT who would take some of the pressure off of Kuechly in the middle of the Panther defense. Richardson would also be a big help to DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. The Panthers could possibly go for DJ Fluker at RT to replace the ineffective Byron Bell but Richardson represents too much value here.
Potential stupid move: Unless a bunch of DT’s go off the board before this pick the Panthers need to invest in one here. Floyd, Lotulelei, Richardson, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short and even Jesse Williams present value at this point. Don’t over think it just take the best available DT.
15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU
This team probably needs a LT to replace the departed Jermon Bushrod but the Saints have always prioritized their guards more than their tackles and they can find an able body LT later if they don’t think Charles Brown can handle the spot. Rob Ryan is the new defensive coordinator and he is switching to a 3-4 defense and he needs pass rushing OLB’s to make it work. Mingo is an athletic player that is best suited for OLB and he should flourish in Ryan’s scheme. The knock on Mingo has been that he didn’t produce big numbers at LSU last year and he’s a bit of a one trick pony. He is a speed rusher without a lot of moves but with Rob Ryan coaching him I think he will bring exactly what the Saints need, pressure.
Potential stupid move: This organization is too smart to make some crazy pick and while Mingo is a bit of a wild card this team can afford to take the chance and spending the 15th pick on a talent like Mingo is worth the gamble.
16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
The Rams desperately need an infusion of talent at WR with the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson but that will have to wait until their pick at #22. Vaccaro is the best safety prospect in the draft and the Rams need help at safety. There are too many teams between now and when they pick next that might take a safety so they roll the dice on stilling getting value at WR at 22 and take the top safety prospect now. They did a great job at CB last year signing Cortland Finnegan in free agency and drafting Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson now it is time to solidify the safety spot.
Potential stupid move: Letting Vaccaro go here hoping he makes it to their next pick. Pittsburgh, Dallas and Cincinnati are all teams that could grab him before their next pick.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Damontre Moore OLB Texas A&M
The Steelers cut James Harrison because he’s gotten far less effective with age. Damontre Moore didn’t do himself any favors with a terrible Combine performance and he wasn’t a whole lot better at Texas A&M’s pro day but his loss is going to be the Steelers gain. The Steelers aren’t going to worry about a slow 40 time or a less than impressive bench press number they will look at what Moore did on the field for the Aggies. Moore can step in at OLB and give the Steelers the type of impact player they are used to having at that position. Their defense relies on pressure from the OLB and LaMarr Woodley hasn’t been effective lately either so they need a lot of help here.
Potential stupid move: This organization doesn’t do stupid.
18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio St.
This team is making the completely ill-advised transition from a 3-4 defense to Monte Kiffin’s Tampa-2 defense. None of their best defensive players fit the new defense very well so it will be a tough transition for sure. Hankins gives them a big body they need at defensive tackle, a position they are short on because they only needed 3 linemen before. Hankins is more potential than production but you can’t teach a guy to be this big and athletic and he should be stout in the middle of a line that will have DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer lining up as undersized DE’s.
Potential stupid move: I said this in my last mock draft but I am not a fan of switching to a defense that doesn’t cater to the strengths of DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Brandon Carr or Morris Claiborne.
19. New York Giants (9-7): DJ Fluker OT Alabama
This team has to get younger and better on the offensive line. They re-signed Will Beatty with the hope he will be their starting LT for the foreseeable future but RT is still a trouble spot. Fluker is big and physical and built to be a dominating RT. This is a great value pick and Fluker is one of the safer picks in the first round. He will never be an elite LT but he will be one of the best RT’s in the league and probably fairly quickly. The Giants could go their usual route and take a pass rusher like Bjoern Werner but I just think their need on the offensive line is going to outweigh their feelings about the pass rushers still on the board.
Potential stupid move: There is a reason that a bad season for the Giants results in a 9-7 record, they aren’t stupid. They don’t gamble too much and when they do they end up with Jason Pierre-Paul.
20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Alec Ogletree LB Georgia
I said in my first mock draft that Ogletree would fall out of the first round because he’s a head case and he still is but I changed my mind. The Bears still desperately need to address their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod (seriously he isn’t much of an upgrade over J’Marcus Webb). The problem is that the early run on offensive linemen means the Bears would have to reach a bit but if they do remember the name Larry Warford out of Kentucky. The forgotten man behind two great guard prospects, Warford is a pretty good player. I think the Bears will feel that their need at LB (they lost Nick Roach in free agency and they are aging rapidly otherwise) is just as big a concern as offensive line. The fact that the team has some very strong leadership (Urlacher, Briggs and Peppers) on defense should be enough to assuage their fears about Ogletree’s problems. If there is a locker room that can keep the kid focused and out of trouble it should be this one.
Potential stupid move: Giving Jermon Bushrod a big contract was not a great idea. He barely grades out better than Webb and he was playing with a QB (Drew Brees) that gets rid of the ball quickly. He won’t have that luxury with Cutler. I don’t understand why they didn’t go harder after Jake Long, he has had some injuries lately but if he is recovered he’s light years ahead of Bushrod.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Arthur Brown LB Kansas St.
This is a projection since Brown hasn’t worked out for anyone yet due to an injury. Brown was fantastic on the field for Kansas St. last season and he brings some versatility to the Bengals. He could play middle or outside LB in their 4-3 defense and the coaches can decide what is best for him and last year’s undrafted rookie Vontaze Burfict who played extremely well for them. The Bengals lost Manny Lawson in free agency and it doesn’t look like Rey Maualuga will be coming back either. This team could use an upgrade at RB but none of the RB’s in this draft look like first round picks let alone going all the way up at 21. The Bengals would probably jump all over Kenny Vaccaro if he falls this far but I don’t see that happening.
Potential stupid move: It probably wouldn’t be really stupid to grab RB Eddie Lacy or even Giovani Bernard hear to take over for BenJarvus Green-Ellis but there will be value at RB later in the draft.
22. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from Washington): Corderrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
The dream scenario for the Rams is they take Vaccaro with their first pick and then the best WR in this draft falls to them at 22. Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson have skipped town and Sam Bradford has to throw it to someone. Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Brian Quick might end up being fine receivers but Patterson has the potential to be a game breaker and that is what this offense needs. They just signed Jake Long so their need at OT has been filled. They could still use some help on the offensive line but they can wait until later in the draft.
Potential stupid move: Passing up the best WR in the draft would be a major mistake and one the Rams are unlikely to make.
23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Desmond Trufant CB Washington
After his 47 year career in the NFL the Vikings said goodbye to Antoine Winfield, he’ll likely play in his 48th season next year for someone else and he’ll probably be pretty solid. I may be off on his years of service but not by much. The Vikings need to get younger in the secondary and Trufant brings excellent cover skills to the table. They need help at LB too after losing Jasper Brinkley in the middle but they can pick up a MLB just like Brinkley later in the draft. Trufant is my favorite man-to-man cover guy and he is too good to slide any farther in this draft. He is the best player left on the board.
Potential stupid move: Not grabbing Trufant now would mean leaving him for the Colts to take with the next pick and they would miss out on a very good cover guy.
24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Jesse Williams DT Alabama
The Colts have been transitioning their defense to a 3-4 since Chuck Pagano took over last year but they are missing some key personnel. The biggest piece missing both literally and figuratively is a nose tackle. They signed Ricky Jean-Francois from the 49ers but he can help all over the line. Williams is a prototypical NT he has a low center of gravity, he is exceptionally strong and he isn’t known as a pass rusher. He will anchor their defense for many years to come. The Colts run defense will be much better with Williams and Jean-Francois lining up next to each other.
Potential stupid move: The Colts are set at QB, TE and…um…yeah that’s about it. It’s hard to blow a pick when you have needs everywhere. The Colts just need talent especially on defense, more importantly talent that fits the needs of their new defense. The drafting of Anthony Costanzo and the free agent signings of Gosder Cherilus and Donald Thomas this off season should mean that OL is not a need but the interior of their line could still use an upgrade or two.
25. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle): Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
A lot of people think the Vikings made a mistake trading Percy Harvin but I’m not one of them. If this pick happens I really will believe the Vikings got the better of this deal. Harvin is a weapon for sure but he is also a colossal headache. He complained a lot and missed games with injuries and migraines and Austin brings a similar skill set without the baggage. The Vikings already signed Greg Jennings to come in and be option #1 but they need more than one good WR to help this offense. I’m actually a bigger fan of Keenan Allen but Austin fits the Vikings needs better. Austin is a big play waiting to happen and that is exactly what this offense needs to take the heat off of Adrian Peterson.
Potential stupid move: Grabbing the MLB they need to replace Brinkley here instead of waiting a round. Kevin Minter, Manti Te’o and two or three other guys should get pushed down into the second round and they could easily replace Brinkley.
26. Green Bay Packers (11-5): Matt Elam S Florida
Everyone seems to think the Packers need help on the offensive line but what they need is for some of their young talent to be healthy and step up. Evan Dietrich-Smith did a very nice job stepping in and replacing the ineffective Jeff Saturday at the end of last year and if Bryan Bulaga can get healthy and Marshall Newhouse or Derek Sherrod could step up at the other tackle then the line should be much improved. The Packers lost SS Charles Woodson this off season to the AARP (or possibly to another team) and they need a new strong safety. If Matt Elam were three inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier he’d be a top 15 pick. He’s undersized and teams will wonder how long he will hold up but the Packers are looking to win now not five years from now. Elam would give them a legitimate safety that could actually affect a game.
Potential stupid move: Grabbing Keenan Allen because Greg Jennings left and Donald Driver retired. I love Allen but spending a first round draft pick on a guy that will be your fourth WR (he’s not beating out Jordy Nelson, James Jones or Randall Cobb) would just be foolish when you have other needs.
27. Houston Texans (12-4): Keenan Allen WR California
Devier Posey tore his Achilles tendon, Kevin Walter was just cut, Keshawn Martin is best suited for the slot and Andre Johnson isn’t getting any younger. The Houston draft room would have to be doing cartwheels if Allen drops to them. He can come in and line up opposite Johnson and eventually be Johnson’s replacement. Allen is a terrific athlete and if he was healthy enough to work out right now I think he would be rivaling Patterson to be the first WR off the board. He didn’t play with a great QB and he was the biggest weapon on Cal’s team so defenses were focused on him. This kid has immense talent and if he plays with a good QB and a solid offense he will put up some great numbers.
Potential stupid move: Passing on arguably the best WR in this draft if he falls to you would be a giant mistake.
28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Bjoern Werner DE Florida St.
The Broncos have made some savvy signings so far this off season. WR Wes Welker, OG Louis Vasquez, CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and DT Terrance Knighton are all very good and upgrade positions the Broncos needed upgrading. The big snafu happened when a deadline wasn’t met and they had to cut Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil was an undersized DE but he was the second leading sacker on the team behind star LB Von Miller. The Broncos would be lucky if a guy like Werner falls all this way in the first round. He has great talent but he is a little raw and wasn’t as physically impressive as some of the other DE’s at the Combine. I don’t think the Broncos defense would miss a beat if Werner replaces Dumervil and Werner would probably hold up better against the run.
Potential stupid move: Waiting until the last minute to redo a deal you knew you had to redo. John Elway has had a good off season but he knew weeks ago that he couldn’t afford Dumervil’s $12 million cap hit. They can all blame Dumervil’s agent for not getting the paperwork in on time but why would you let this go down to the last hour with a guy this important to your defense.
29. New England Patriots (12-4): John Jenkins DT Georgia
They should probably draft a WR here since they are running very thin at the position but I can’t see Belichick pulling the trigger there. There are no other glaring needs after the re-signing of CB’s Aqib Talib and Kyle Arrington and the signing of S Adrian Wilson. I went with Jenkins because he is the perfect eventual replacement for Vince Wilfork and the Patriots will eventually have to replace Wilfork. Jenkins is a massive human being who puts up virtually no stats which is exactly the definition of Vince Wilfork. You cannot measure the impact of players like these guys in stats because they are space-eaters and they occupy blockers to allow the DE’s and LB’s to make plays. The unsung heroes that are only appreciated by coaches like Bill Belichick.
Potential stupid move: Drafting CB Jonathan Banks out of Mississippi St. would be Belichick repeating the same mistakes he’s made with Darius Butler, Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling. Belichick drafting a CB in the first or second round has not proven to be a great idea.
30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Datone Jones DE UCLA
This kid looked great at the Combine and the more film scouts watch of him the more they will realize what kind of skill set he brings. He probably won’t fall this far but I couldn’t find a place for him higher than this so the Falcons luck out. They need a DE that can put pressure on the QB and Jones can do that and everything else a DE needs to do. Jones was seen as a tweener, not fast enough at DE and not big enough at DT, but he impressed at the Combine and I won’t be the least bit shocked if he goes in the late teens. His versatility can be seen as an asset but also as a liability because he didn’t excel at just one position.
Potential stupid move: I think it would be a mistake to pass on a pass rusher because the Falcons needed one even before they let John Abraham go and now they really need one. However, if they decide to take TE Tyler Eifert as Tony Gonzalez’s eventual replacement I wouldn’t fault them. Gonzalez has decided to come back but he and Eifert could make a scary two TE formation. I’m fairly certain Matt Ryan would agree.
31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Margus Hunt DE SMU
I’m sticking with this as my out-of-the-box 1st round pick. Hunt isn’t a household name and he probably never will be because he projects as a DE in a 3-4 defense. The only names of 3-4 DE’s that anyone knows are Houston’s JJ Watt and San Francisco’s own Justin Smith. San Francisco lost some depth with the departures of Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois and Justin Smith’s age can only be determined through carbon dating at this point so the 49ers need some new blood. They signed Glenn Dorsey from Kansas City but he never proved to be a great fit in 3-4 defense there so I’m not expecting him to be much more than a back-up in San Fran. Margus Hunt measured in a 6’8 at the combine and teams love the way he blocked field goals at SMU. JJ Watt turned batting passes into an art form this year in Houston and someone is going to draft Hunt hoping he can do the same thing.
Potential stupid move: Drafting a fast but undersized WR way too high in the draft and then having to sit him all season long…wait…that was last year’s stupid move. At least it didn’t keep them out of the Super Bowl.
32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Kevin Minter LB LSU
I thought the Ravens would take an ILB because Ray Lewis retired and then Dannell Ellerbe got a huge contract offer from the Miami Dolphins and bolted so I’m sure of it now. The Ravens have to take a LB now and while Minter isn’t a great coverage LB he should be a great run stuffer for that defense and that is what they need. The loss of Paul Kruger hurts their depth at OLB but the return of a completely healthy Terrell Suggs along with last year’s draft pick Courtney Upshaw makes that position less of a priority. Jameel McClain could be an option at ILB if he is recovered from a spinal cord contusion but he has never proven to be a great option even when healthy so the Ravens could be looking for a couple of ILB in this draft.
Potential stupid move: Ozzie Newsome rarely makes a mistake in the draft unless he’s drafting WR. No seriously, Torrey Smith broke a pretty impressive streak of bad WR drafted by the Ravens between 2000 -2010. Take a look at this list; Travis Taylor, Ron Johnson, Javin Hunter, Devard Darling, Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, Yamon Figurs, Marcus Smith, Justin Harper and David Reed. These picks were all over the draft in terms of rounds but you would have thought he would have hit on one of them.
Potential 1st rounder picks
QB Matt Barkley USC: I actually like Barkley more than Geno Smith but neither is worth a first round pick in my opinion. However, just like I see Geno Smith going in the first round I think Barkley probably will too. I don’t have him in my first round because I’m not predicting specific trades but I think Barkley will fall to somewhere around the end of the first round and one of the teams that needs a QB (Arizona, Buffalo, Jacksonville) will trade back into the first round and grab him.
RB Giovani Bernard North Carolina and RB Eddie Lacy Alabama: I put these two together because they are the top two RB’s but they bring different skill sets and there is no way both are going in the first round. Neither one has proven that they absolutely belong in the first round but if a RB gets taken it will be one of these two.
WR Robert Woods USC: One of Matt Barkley’s favorite targets had a very nice Combine and showed more speed than anyone was expecting giving him a shot to be the 4th WR taken. He could sneak into the later part of round 1.
TE Tyler Eifert Notre Dame: I had a really hard time leaving Eifert out of the first round because he could be such a weapon for someone but not everyone can go in the first round. Eifert has moved ahead of Zach Ertz as the top TE in this draft after showing at the Combine that he could be a solid blocker. He was always a better receiving threat than Ertz but he was a little lacking in the blocking department, when he showed that skill at the Combine everyone took notice.
TE Zach Ertz Stanford: Ertz is an all-around good TE. He can catch and he can block and he isn’t afraid to do either one. He is just slightly behind Eifert in the speed and natural receiving department but he will make someone a very nice starting TE next season.
OG Larry Warford Kentucky: Warford has the unenviable task of being in the same OG class as Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper. Warford is a very talented guard but Warmack and Cooper are special players and he just doesn’t quite measure up. He could slip into the end of the first round if all of the top offensive line players go early and someone feels they need to take the next best player.
OL Barrett Jones Alabama: For some inexplicable reason Jones’ value seems to have dropped in the eyes of NFL evaluators. I think any guy that can start at OT one year and win the Outland trophy and then start at C the next year and win the Rimington Award has got serious talent. If someone takes Jones in the first round they won’t regret it but if he falls to the second round some is going to be very lucky.
DE Alex Okafor Texas: This guy is pretty good and he certainly is talented enough to be a first round pick but he is in a very deep position group and in my mock draft he falls just a little shy of the first 32 picks.
OLB Tank Carradine Florida St.: This guy is certainly under-the-radar at the moment because he had an injury at the end of the season. If Carradine proves he’s going to be healthy someone that needs a pass rushing OLB could take a flyer on him at the end of the first round.
DT Sylvester Williams North Carolina: He’s the unfortunate victim of the deepest position group in the draft. There just wasn’t enough spots for more than six DT’s in my first round and even if there was there is no guarantee Williams is the next guy off the board because…
DT Kawann Short Purdue: That’s right there are at least eight DT’s that are first round possibilities and either Williams or Short could replace any of the guys I have going in the first round or they could all go in the first round. With this DT class beauty is in the eye of the beholder because they all bring different skill sets to the table.
LB Manti Te’o Notre Dame: Te’o has been talked about as a first rounder but his Combine performance didn’t help his cause. His position also isn’t one of great value to most teams and being viewed as a two-down LB won’t help him make the first round. I only include him here because of the intangibles he brings and a team like the Ravens at the end of the first round could like him more than Kevin Minter so he has a shot at the first round.
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