I just want to thank NFL.com for their coverage of the Scouting Combine if it wasn’t for them I may have actually been productive over the last six days of my life. I watched every minute of every drill I could possible see and I have read basically every report coming out of the combine about medical reports and interviews. I do wish I could listen to Mike Mayock break down every minute of every player on every drill the entire time, I find myself nodding along with him as he speaks. Here are the notes and conclusions I have drawn from the happenings at the Scouting Combine. These are my opinions based on what I have seen and what has been reported.
Notes from the Scouting Combine
-Manti Te’o ran like he was in sand and he will be lucky to go to Baltimore at the end of the first round. His only saving grace was Minter wasn’t fast either and Ogletree is still a head case. There are reports out of the combine that Alec Ogletree’s interviews with teams left a lot to be desired, reportedly he lied to teams about things they already knew the truth about (like his suspension last year for failing a drug test). Drafting this kid is like buying a Powerball ticket, the jackpot is worth the gamble as long as you don’t spend more than you can afford.
– Tyler Eifert definitely helped himself; he finally looked like a TE and not just a jacked-up WR. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder between Eifert and Ertz and they are clearly the top two TE’s on the board.
-I was seriously wrong in my mock draft, Jonathan Cooper will make the first round for sure and he may go in the top half. He had an excellent showing at the combine and teams even had him doing some drills as a center which will only increase his value. I don’t know the draft history off the top of my head but I can’t remember ever having two interior offensive linemen rated this high with both possibly going in the top half of the first round.
-Damontre Moore just blew the biggest job interview of his life. I try not to put too much stock in the numbers from the combine and I don’t like downgrading a guy because of a bad performance but Moore’s performance confounds me. When all a guy has to do is show up, do what is expected and he’s a lock for the top 10 and instead he shows up looking like he isn’t prepared you start to wonder. What bothers me is that Moore had to know the Jordan and Ansah were going to put up incredible numbers and by looking unprepared he comes off as a guy not willing to compete. Jordan, Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo all passed Moore on the draft board and while Bjoern Werner wasn’t great either he is probably ahead of Moore and I may consider Datone Jones of UCLA ahead of Moore now too.
-Star Lotulelei’s draft stock starts to tumble until he can find a cardiologist that will give him a clean bill of health or figure out how to fix him (if that’s even possible, I’m not a doctor). Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson certainly move up until Lotulelei’s health is no longer a question.
-Terron Armstead OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff ran the 40 really fast for an offensive lineman, heck he beat Te’o by a tenth of a second but don’t get so excited. Lane Johnson was only a hundredth of a second slower and he’s a better player. Armstead made himself a much higher draft pick but don’t overestimate the 40 times of O-linemen.
-Eric Fisher is making himself a lot of money as he just keeps climbing the draft boards. Whatever the difference in pay is between where he goes in this draft and the early 20’s pick he would have been he owes a commission to Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews for returning to school.
-In the last couple of days following the scouting combine I’ve come across a couple of updated mock drafts on-line, one that had Eric Fisher going number 1 (Dane Brugler NFLDraftScout.com) and one with Lane Johnson going number 1 (Pat Kirwan CBSSports.com). This is a case of overvaluing scouting combine results and guys trying to show off. There is no guarantee that the Chiefs will take on OT first overall but if the Chiefs take on OT first overall it will be Joeckel. Go back to the tape guys, GO BACK TO THE TAPE. Fisher and Johnson made themselves a lot of money this weekend but not #1 overall pick kind of money.
-I read a story the other day after the OL workouts that talked about how DJ Fluker’s 40 time was disappointing (he ran 5.31). Have you seen the guy, he’s a massive human being even after losing 16 lbs. since the Senior Bowl. Just draft him and be glad he can actually run 40 yards at all. He is a devastating blocker and you don’t need him 40 yards down the field, you just need him destroying everyone within about 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. And he will.
-Cordarrelle Patterson measured in at 6-2 216 lbs. and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash, cha-ching. With Keenan Allen sitting out the combine with an injury the only other WR that truly made an impact was Tavon Austin with his 4.34 time in the 40. However, Austin needed that time because he measured in at about 5-9 and 174 lbs. He’s good at what he is as a WR but he isn’t the same kind of number one receiver that Patterson projects to be.
-Lots of people saying Geno Smith either held serve as the top QB in this draft or solidified his spot at the top of the QB chart. Really? He looked fine but would I rather spend a top 10 pick on him or grab EJ Manuel in the second round? I’ll take Manuel. Smith is not a sure-fire day one starter in the NFL and I don’t see him making the same immediate impact as Luck, Griffin or Wilson did so if I have to wait I’ll just wait on Manuel. Also, how can you make that claim when the only QB (Matt Barkley) that could realistically challenge him for the top spot didn’t even throw? I do love that one knock on Matt Barkley coming into the combine was that he isn’t prototypical height for a QB, then he measured in 1/8 of an inch taller than Smith. Just to refresh your memory in 2001 Michael Vick went #1 overall and Drew Brees went first in the second round, people thought Brees was too short to be a top QB. Brees was also about a half an inch taller than Vick, who would you want as your QB now? Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. I still think they both should go in the second round and I still believe they both will get drafted in the first round.
-Somebody forgot to tell Dee Milliner he was already the top CB in this draft. Here’s a guy who pulled the anti-Damontre Moore move. Milliner was the top CB in the draft and most people saw him going in the top eight because of the value of his position but instead of just going out there and solidifying his spot he blazed his 40 and locked up a top five spot. There was one big negative on the scouting report for Milliner; it read “lacks elite speed”. The only thing faster than Milliner’s 40 time was the time it took for scouts to cross out that note. Desmond Trufant (a favorite of mine) and Xavier Rhodes both ran very well too and locked up the top two spots behind Milliner.
Positional Notes
QB- This group proved to be as underwhelming as everyone suspected. Tyler Bray looks the part with his stature and big arm but he needs serious work on his reads and his decision making.
RB- Equally as underwhelming especially with Eddie Lacy not taking part in the combine. Only thing of note was the speedster Andre Ellington of Clemson running 4.61 and making scouts think their stop watches were broken, he needs to run a lot better at his pro day or he may not get drafted.
WR- Patterson, Allen and Austin are the only sure-fire first round picks but there are probably five guys that could go in the second round (Robert Woods, DeAndre Hopkins, Quinton Patton, Terrence Williams and Justin Hunter). Depth is a wonderful thing.
OL- Great talent at the top of the charts; Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson, Warmack, Cooper and Fluker are all destined for the first round.
DL- An embarrassment of riches. At DE; Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Datone Jones, Alex Okafor and Margus Hunt. At DT; Sheldon Richardson, Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short, Jesse Williams, Sylvester Williams and John Jenkins. With all of these players half of the first round could be defensive lineman.
LB- The defensive line is an embarrassment of riches while the LB group is just an embarrassment. Te’o, Minter and Ogletree all have their issues and Arthur Brown, one of the better looking players on tape has sat out the Senior Bowl and the Scouting Combine. The guy who probably helped himself the most is North Carolina’s Kevin Reddick, he looks like he could be a three down LB.
CB- Really good at the top (Milliner, Trufant and Rhodes) with nice depth (Jonathan Banks, David Amerson, Jordan Poyer, Jamar Taylor, Darius Slay). The real news was Banks running in the 4.6 range, he’s tall but slight of build and not running a great time is going to hurt his stock. He came into the combine as a fringe first round pick and now he needs to improve at his pro day just to stay in the second round conversation.
S- Not a lot to say here, Kenny Vaccaro solidified himself as the best safety prospect on the board. Matt Elam was good but he’s not big enough to overtake Vaccaro.
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