The Hott Read 8/6/12

Here come the HAWKEYES!!!!!

The current 2-deeps for the Iowa Hawkeyes list 8 seniors as starters and that includes John Wienke as the punter (he’s been a QB for the past 4 years).  This is great news…for next year…not so much for this year.  James Vandenberg, Brad Rogers, Keenan Davis, James Ferentz and Micah Hyde are key seniors and leaders for the Hawkeyes this year and with new coordinators on both sides of the ball leadership from these guys will be very important. Here’s the team breakdown.

Coaching Staff:

Kirk Ferentz is entering his 14^th season at the helm of the Hawkeyes and after 13 years with the same two coordinators change has finally come.  Phil Parker replaces Norm Parker at defensive coordinator and many of the same principles will remain.  The hope is that with some new blood (Levar Woods) and some relocated blood (Reece Morgan and Darrell Wilson) the defense will be reinvigorated and hopefully will do some things (blitzing and press coverage) that were mostly absent under Norm Parker.  Iowa’s defense has rarely been the problem for this program and there is no need to reinvent the wheel but after 13 years the Hawks could use some new tires.

The Ken O’Keefe years have finally passed and we are about to find out if it was Ferentz always reigning in O’Keefe or if it was O’Keefe not pushing Kirk enough.  The new offensive coordinator is Greg Davis whose last coaching job was as OC for Texas a job he was fairly or unfairly run out of depending on who you ask.  What the new Iowa offense will look like is a mystery and anyone who tells you they know what to expect is lying and that is the best part about a new OC.  The problems under O’Keefe were not the “system” the Hawks run it was the predictability of the play calling, it is a whole lot easier to play defense against someone when you know what’s coming.  The Hawkeyes just started fall camp and given the question marks on offense the coaches can’t be completely sure what the offense will look like come September.  Greg Davis’s best attribute is that he can tailor his offense to fit his personnel and all you have to do is look at his track record at Texas.  He coached Vince Young to a National Championship and Colt McCoy to being the winningest starting QB in college football (at that time, the record has since been broken), two QB’s that couldn’t be more different.

The two other coaching changes of note are the addition of Brian Ferentz as OL coach and the move of Eric Johnson to a more full-time recruiting coordinator role.  Brian Ferentz was a player that got by on his intelligence and his knowledge of his position and opponent, all traits that should translate very well to coaching offensive line.  Johnson’s move to focusing more on recruiting seems to all ready be paying dividends as Iowa has 16 verbal commitments for the class of 2013 by far the most they have ever had going into a season.  We can’t discount the work of the other coaches especially the young guys Brian Ferentz and Levar Woods but someone is coordinating a far more effective strategy in recruiting and that is good because that’s what it takes in today’s recruiting world.

QB:  James Vandenberg, Jake Rudock, Cody Sokol, CJ Beathard and kind of John Wienke.

The Starter: James Vandenberg

Vandenberg is the returning starter at QB and he is the leader of the offense and John Wienke is the only other player on the team to throw a pass and he is more of a punter than a QB now.  Given the question marks at RB and WR the Hawkeyes offense will go only as far as Vandenberg takes it.  Vandenberg has to play more consistently and improve his completion percentage if the Hawkeyes are going to be good on offense.

The Battle: Jake Rudock vs. Cody Sokol for the back-up job.

Jake Rudock was a winner in his high school career at St. Thomas Aquinas in Florida where he played with superior talent and he knows what it’s like to play against the best.  Cody Sokol is a junior college transfer who is a little older and has played college football before.  No one really expects either of these two to put pressure on Vandenberg but the guy who wins the back-up job this year has a leg up on next year’s starting job.  My prediction is Rudock wins the battle I don’t have any real reason just a hunch.

The Others: CJ Beathard, John Wienke (sort of)

CJ Beathard is an incoming freshman who committed to Iowa when Ken O’Keefe was the OC and we were a standard pro-style offense so depending on the direction of the offense under Davis Beathard could be a perfect fit or not.  It is unlikely that Iowa would stray too far from a passing offense that fits Beathard but it is wait and see for him.  Wienke is the guy that lost out to Vandenberg for the back-up job to Ricky Stanzi a few years ago and now as a fifth-year senior he is our holder and is working as a punter trying to get on the field any way he can.  You have to pull for a guy who stuck it out for 5 years and is still trying to do what he can to help the team.

RB:  Damon Bullock, Brad Rogers, Greg Garmon, Barkley Hill and the rest of the gang.

The Starter: Yeah right.

Damon Bullock and Brad Rogers are listed atop the depth chart going into fall camp and since Rogers is also listed as the starting FB that means Bullock’s hold on the starting job is tenuous at best.  Since Jordan Canzeri tore his ACL during spring practice Bullock has been atop the RB depth chart by default, while he has as good a chance as any of winning the job in training camp there has always been a feeling that his name was simply a place holder.  Rogers came to Iowa with the idea of being a big back in the mold of Shonn Greene but illness and the emergence of Marcus Coker sent Rogers to the fullback spot where he played very well last year.  He could emerge as the thunder to Bullock’s lightening in a two back rotation.  Bullock is the smaller shiftier type of back that can catch the ball out of the backfield and get to the edge.  Garmon and Hill are the incoming freshmen and Ferentz says both of them will play.

The Battle:  Bullock vs. Rogers vs. Garmon vs. Hill vs. the field

Four players listed atop the 2 deeps means anything can happen.  Garmon is the 4-star recruit that everyone was expecting to come in and compete but due to some legal problems (that he will not face suspension for) he missed most of the summer workouts and seemingly lost ground to Bullock, Rogers and even Hill.  Barkley Hill is the less heralded in-state recruit who looks more like the type of RB the Hawkeyes are used to having in terms of style.  Rogers has been around the longest but making him a full-time RB means finding a new starter at FB too and assuming he can handle the workload.  Bullock has been working as the starter since spring and he brings a lot of useful qualities to the position the most impressive being his pass receiving skills.  Last year when the Hawkeyes seemed stacked at the RB position at the beginning of the year the coaching staff moved Bullock to WR and even used him in the slot in the first game of the year.  My prediction is Garmon eventually wins the starting job but Bullock and Rogers may get a lot of snaps depending on the situation, Bullock is a classic 3^rd down back and Rogers could be the Hawks goal-line option.  Garmon’s all-around talent should eventually lead to him becoming the every down back.

The Others:  Nate Meier, Michael Malloy and Andre Dawson

Nate Meier is another in-state recruit coming in at RB but he’s a kid that played 8 man football in Iowa and while he may be impressive physically, asking someone to step from 8 man football to Big Ten football seems unlikely.  Meier dominated 8 man football in Iowa but 11 man is a different game and Big Ten football is a level far beyond anything he has encountered.  Michael Malloy is a walk-on from Sioux City and Andre Dawson is a walk-on originally from Cedar Rapids coming to Iowa from Iowa Western Community College, these two add depth for practice but seem unlikely to contribute at RB this year.

FB: Brad Rogers, Jonathan Gimm and Mark Weisman

The Starter: It’s Rogers and it’s not even close.

The Battle: Gimm is a senior who has not been able to break through and Weisman is a sophomore that sat out last year after transferring from the Air Force Academy.  The likelihood is that when we use a fullback it will be Rogers and if Rogers is playing tailback he will be doing it in a one back set.

The Others: My future prediction is that if Nate Meier doesn’t eventually grow into a LB or a D-lineman he ends up at FB and becomes the starter.

WR: Keenan Davis, Kevonte Martin-Manley, Don Shumpert, Steven Staggs, Jordon Cotton, Jacob Hillyer and the 4 freshmen receivers. 

The Starters: Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley

Keenan Davis is literally the most accomplished returning WR in the Big Ten, unfortunately that may speak more to the sorry state of receiving in the Big Ten than it does to Davis.  Davis has all the physical tools to be an elite WR at the college level he just has to bring more consistency to his game.  He spent last year learning from the great Marvin McNutt but now it is time for him to translate it to the field because the Hawkeyes need his production.  Kevonte Martin-Manley flashed huge potential last year and if you need a reminder watch the 2^nd half of the Pitt game.  Vandenberg has two receivers he knows in Davis and Martin-Manley but after that the position gets very dicey.  Don Shumpert and Steven Staggs are listed as the back-ups but that is written in pencil.  Shumpert has speed to burn but his hands have been suspect and Staggs may not have the speed Greg Davis desires in his receivers.

The Battle:  Shumpert, Staggs, Jacob Hillyer, Jordon Cotton, Maurice Fleming, Tevaun Smith, Cameron Wilson and Greg Mabin.

When any one of eight players could potentially be the third receiver it makes a QB appreciate his top targets that much more.  I covered Shumpert and Staggs above.  Jordon Cotton is a 4^th year junior who has barely seen the field.  Jacob Hillyer is a redshirt freshman that apparently played well last year in practice but wasn’t needed so the coaching staff didn’t burn his redshirt.   Maurice Fleming, Tevaun Smith, Cameron Wilson and Greg Mabin are all incoming freshmen and have the size and speed Greg Davis is looking for in his receivers.  My prediction is Hillyer and Fleming move into position behind Davis and Martin-Manley.  Hillyer impressed the coaches last year and Fleming offers the speed and shiftiness the Hawks could use in the slot.

The Others: In a position where 8 guys are competing to be the back-ups there are only walk-ons Blake Haluska and Nick Nielsen left.

TE:  CJ Fiedorowicz, Zach Derby, Ray Hamilton, Jake Duzey, Henry Krieger-Coble, George Kittle

The Starter: CJ Fiedorowicz

At the end of last year CJ Fiedorowicz took over as the starter and began to fulfill the promise he brought with him as a 4-star recruit.  This season with a WR position that is short on proven producers Fiedorowicz is expected to step up and be a big part of the passing attack.  Hopefully Brian Ferentz brought some plays from the Patriots playbook with him and Iowa can try to use CJ Fiedorowicz the way the Patriots use Rob Gronkowski.  Fiedorowicz is a physical specimen with great hands and the Hawkeyes need to find ways to take advantage of his abilities in the passing game and exploit the mismatches he creates.

  The Battle: Zach Derby vs. Ray Hamilton at back-up

Fiedorowicz passed Derby on the depth chart last year but he remained the back-up.  Ray Hamilton played last year as a freshman both on special teams and a little at TE.  Hamilton is the rising player and Derby is the steady senior and the truth is both will play plenty.  The questions at WR mean we should see more two TE sets and that means at least three TE’s will play and it could be even more.

The Others: Jake Duzey, Henry Krieger-Coble and George Kittle

Jake Duzey is a kid that was more of a WR sized guy coming into the program and has grown a bit but his receiving skills should be great and he just needs to grow into the position.  Henry Krieger-Coble is another guy that needed to grow into the position and he and Duzey should compete to be the 4^th TE.  George Kittle is the incoming freshman that is nowhere near physically ready to contribute at TE but has a good frame and athleticism for the position.

OL: Brandon Scherff, Matt Tobin, James Ferentz, Austin Blythe, Brett Van Sloten, Nolan MacMillan, Andrew Donnal, Conor Boffeli, Eric Simmons, Jordan Walsh and Drew Clark.

The Starters: LT Brandon Scherff, LG Matt Tobin, C James Ferentz, RG Austin Blythe, RT Brett Van Sloten.

Center James Ferentz is the only guaranteed starter on the OL but that doesn’t mean the line won’t be good.  Competition breeds production and it looks like Brandon Scherff and Brett Van Sloten have held off their competition in the spring for the LT and RT positions.  Senior Matt Tobin, who had his struggles last year and was replaced many times by Scherff, has the inside track at LG and redshirt freshman Austin Blythe was impressive enough in the spring to go into the season as the starting RG.  Two things we know about Kirk Ferentz is that his comfort level with a senior that has started before (Tobin) gives him an advantage and if a redshirt freshman is atop the depth chart going into the season he must have been very impressive.  Ferentz likes players with experience but he isn’t afraid to play lineman early if they are good enough (Mike Jones, Bryan Bulaga and Riley Reiff come to mind).

The Battle:  The guard spots Matt Tobin and Austin Blythe vs. Andrew Donnal, Nolan MacMillan and Conor Boffeli.

Assuming Scherff and Van Sloten hold off Donnal and MacMillan at tackle those two become competition at the guard spots.  Ferentz has never been beholden to offensive linemen playing a certain positions, “the best five will play” has usually been the mantra when it comes to starting positions.  Conor Boffeli has been on the cusp of a starting position for a few years and is still fighting for one of those guard spots.  My prediction is that MacMillan gets snaps at guard either because Blythe isn’t quite ready or because Tobin struggles like last year.

The Others:  Eric Simmons, Jordan Walsh, Drew Clark and Ryan Ward

There are even more but these are the ones to talk about.  Eric Simmons is a junior college transfer with 3 years of eligibility and could compete at guard and center and is one of the guys who will compete next year to replace James Ferentz.  Jordan Walsh was a 4-star prospect that has spent time at guard and tackle and is only down the depth chart due to the strength of the guys ahead of him.  Drew Clark has been around awhile and has been passed up by younger guys and looks like a career back-up.  Ryan Ward won’t play this year but he is the future at tackle as the Hawkeyes have had better luck recruiting interior lineman and Ward was a 4-star tackle prospect.

DL: Steve Bigach, Joe Gaglione, Dominic Alvis, Carl Davis, Darian Cooper, Louis Trinca-Pasat, Riley McMinn, Mike Hardy, Melvin Spears, Dean Tsopanides, Jaleel Johnson, Faith Ekakitie

The Starters:  DE Steve Bigach/Joe Gaglione, DE Dominic Alvis, DT Carl Davis/Darian Cooper, DT Louis Trinca-Pasat

A healthy Dominic Alvis is crucial to the success of the Hawkeye defensive front.  Alvis is the best pass rusher the Hawkeyes have and he is coming off a knee injury.  If the team can’t get pressure out of the front four then they have to blitz and that takes them out of their comfort zone.  Steve Bigach and Joe Gaglione are seniors listed as co-starters opposite Alvis but neither one scares an offense.  Bigach can play inside or out and that means he’s a valuable player, Gaglione hasn’t proven to be much but he has been around.  There are 3 guys listed at DT, Carl Davis who brings impressive size but has yet to produce on the field, Darian Cooper is a redshirt freshman that many believed would contribute last year but he never saw the field and Louis Trinca-Pasat is the guy that came on strong during bowl prep and in spring practice.  These 3 have loads of potential but are lacking in actual production.

The Battle:  The entire defensive line except for Dominic Alvis at DE.

Dominic Alvis is the only sure thing and that is dependent on his knee being completely healed.  Bigach and Gaglione are starters by default because no one has stepped up to beat them out.  Young guys like Riley McMinn, Melvin Spears and incoming freshman Faith Ekakitie will look to unseat Bigach and Gaglione at DE or at least contribute in a rotation.  Davis, Cooper and Trinca-Pasat will likely work in a rotation at DT and true freshman Jaleel Johnson is expected to contribute also.

The Others:  Mike Hardy, Dean Tsopanides and John Sawhill

John Sawhill is a fifth-year senior that transferred in from Drake and he could be a surprise and add some depth at DT.  Hardy and Tsopanides are young guys that will try to challenge for playing time but are fighting an uphill battle.

LB:  James Morris, Christian Kirksey, Anthony Hitchens, Quinton Alston, Travis Perry, Cole Fisher

The Starters:  James Morris, Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens.

James Morris has started at LB since midway through his freshman year and now as a junior he is one of the leaders of the defense from his middle linebacker spot.  A position he has mostly played with the exception of some games last year where he was shifted outside.  He’s flanked by two other juniors, returning starter Christian Kirksey who played very well last year and Anthony Hitchens who played some last year as an injury substitute and in some sub packages.  There has been a concerted effort to add speed to the LB position and Kirksey and Hitchens do that although they don’t bring a ton of size.

The Battle: Can Quinton Alston break into the line-up.

The 3 LB spots seem pretty secure but if anyone is going to change that it would be Quinton Alston.  Alston has played some linebacker and a lot of special teams and is very talented.  The problem he faces is that he is strictly a middle linebacker and that happens to be James Morris’s position.  What Alston would have to do is play well enough to convince the coaches that the LB unit would be better off with him in the middle and Morris shifted outside in place of Hitchens but that seems unlikely.  Alston will see time especially when the Hawkeyes need more size on the field.

The Others:  Travis Perry, Cole Fisher, Marcus Collins and Laron Taylor.

None of these guys are likely to see much playing time but they all bring the speed that the defense has wanted to add at LB and they are young guys sitting behind some very talented juniors and a sophomore.

DB: Micah Hyde, BJ Lowery, Nico Law, Tanner Miller, Jordan Lomax (injured), Greg Castillo, Torrey Campbell, Tom Donatell, Colin Sleeper

The Starters:  CB Micah Hyde, CB BJ Lowery, SS Nico Law, FS Tanner Miller

Micah Hyde is the senior leader of the Hawkeye defense; he’s a multiyear starter, able to play multiple positions if needed and is an All-Conference caliber player.  His running mate at CB is BJ Lowery who flashed multiple times last year and has been biding his time waiting to take over. Lowery is a very skilled cover man with good size.  Tanner Miller is a returning starter at free safety and brings a lot of experience over the last two years which is a good thing since the starting strong safety is Nico Law.  Law spent his freshman year playing a lot of special teams but not getting much time at safety.  Law will be a fan favorite and likely a media favorite as he is sure to be a quotable player.  He brings potential to a position needing an upgrade in talent.

The Battle:  Greg Castillo vs. Torrey Campbell for the nickel corner job.

This position was all but sewn up by Jordan Lomax until he suffered a shoulder injury and is now out for the season.  He was a freshman who played last year on special teams and at corner at times but he will take his redshirt year this year and come back next year to fight to replace Micah Hyde.  In the meantime senior Greg Castillo will try to fight off redshirt freshman Torrey Campbell for the job and given Castillo’s track record he will almost assuredly do so and make Hawkeye fans miss Lomax that much more.  Campbell is an unknown at this point but hopefully he turns his potential into production in camp and wins the nickel job.

The Others:  Kevin Buford, Sean Draper, Ruben Lile and Anthony Gair

These 4 true freshmen are worth mentioning because they could come in and potentially add depth to the defensive backfield.  Buford and Draper both project at corner and it is a position without a lot of depth beyond the top four.  Lile and Gair project at safety and while seniors Colin Sleeper and Tom Donatell have played in the past there is a reason they aren’t starters and have been passed by younger players.  Donatell has actually seen as much if not more time at outside LB than he has at safety.

Specialists:  Mike Meyer, Marshall Koehn, John Wienke, Jonny Mullings, Connor Kornbrath

The Starters: K Mike Meyer, P John Wienke/Jonny Mullings

Mike Meyer has been the starting kicker since his freshman year and while he has had his ups and downs he’s pretty solid.  If he can be more consistent he can be a weapon.  John Wienke is a converted QB trying to make it as a punter and Jonny Mullings is a guy with a big leg and a slow delivery.

  The Battle:  Kornbrath vs. the field

True freshman Connor Kornbrath has all the tools to come in and win the starting job at punter and given his competition and the fact that Ferentz has never shied away from playing freshman kickers/punters I would say the odds are in his favor.

The Others:  K Marshall Koehn, K Trent Mossbrucker

Koehn is a redshirt freshman walk-on with a big leg and could possibly contribute as a kick-off specialist to save a little on Meyer’s leg.  Mossbrucker is a senior who’s been beaten out by younger players and his biggest contribution at this point is the fact that he helps signal in the plays from the sidelines.

The Schedule:

Iowa begins the season at Soldier Field in Chicago against a solid Northern Illinois team and then comes home for 4 weeks in a row against very beatable teams starting with Iowa St. The Cyclones haven’t been an easy win for the Hawkeyes in a while but the game is at home so that should help.  October only has three games, two tough away games versus Michigan St and Northwestern sandwiched around a now very vulnerable Penn St team under the lights at Kinnick.  I normally wouldn’t call Northwestern tough but we have struggled against them lately especially on the road.  November goes like this at Indiana (shouldn’t be a tough game) Purdue at home (our “bitter” cross-divisional rival) at Michigan (I hate that Brady Hoke appears to be as good of a coach as I thought he would be) and Nebraska in Kinnick the day after Thanksgiving (really want to beat the Cornhuskers on national TV).  I don’t really want to make a prediction about how the Hawkeyes come out on the season because I’m always optimistic and I think this team could surprise people.

Final thoughts:  Iowa will go as far as the lines take them.

Like most Iowa teams it really should come down to how they play along the offensive and defensive lines.  The OL may not have a big name prospect like Bulaga and Reiff but there is a lot of talent and a lot of depth and a new exciting position coach in Brian Ferentz.  If the o-line plays well we have enough talent at RB that their inexperience won’t matter.  The defensive line is the key, Dominic Alvis has to be healthy and the guys inside (Trinca-Pasat, Davis, Cooper and Jaleel Johnson) have to contribute.  Finding a second consistent pass-rusher would be huge for this team whether that person comes at DE or DT doesn’t really matter the Hawks have to get pressure from the defensive line.

Guys to watch:

RB Greg Garmon- If he can avoid the RB curse the kid has the talent to be special.

TE CJ Fiedorowicz- I didn’t mention the name Rob Gronkowski by accident, this kid has that type of physical talent he just has to put it all together.  He is a match-up nightmare for defenses and he could absolutely explode this season.

QB James Vandenberg- He has the tools he just needs some consistency.  He needs to up his completion percentage and play better on the road.  If he leans on Keenan Davis, Kevonte Martin-Manley and CJ Fiedorowicz in the passing game he should be fine.

LT Brandon Scherff- When I said Iowa didn’t have a big name prospect like Bulaga or Reiff I should have said yet.  Scherff could be the next great LT from Iowa.

DT’s Darian Cooper and Jaleel Johnson- One of these two needs to step up and be the other dominant player on the line with Dominic Alvis, they both possess the talent they are just very green.

LB James Morris- You don’t start at MLB as freshman without some serious talent.  Morris is only a junior but he has more experience than just about anyone which is why he is a leader on defense.

LB Christian Kirksey- He turned into a tackling machine last year and I expect him to keep it up, he isn’t the biggest LB but he’s got speed that kills.

CB Micah Hyde- The Hawkeyes best cover guy and most consistent defender and unless Fiedorowicz explodes and enters the NFL draft early Hyde will likely be the first Hawkeye drafted in 2013.

SS Nico Law- I think this kid could bring the swagger to the defense that has been missing lately, he doesn’t lack for confidence and I believe he will back it up.

For those of you that stuck with me through this whole thing thank you, I barely made it myself.

Nate