The Hott Read 8/1/12

NFL Storyline Thoughts

There are five major storylines heading into the NFL season and a number of smaller storylines to follow.  Here’s my take in no particular order.

Sanchez vs. Tebow: QB controversy for the New York Jets. The most media driven storyline of the offseason.  The not-so-golden boy Mark Sanchez vs. the chosen one Tim Tebow in the media center of the world.  Tebow is only a threat because Sanchez is the definition of inconsistent and having a threat on the bench is likely to make Sanchez fold like an origami swan.  In Denver Tebow had a veteran RB in Willis McGahee, a reliable receiver in Eric Decker, a solid O-line and a defense that played out of its mind.  The Jets defense could play that well but Shonn Greene hasn’t proven anything in the NFL, Santonio Holmes is as reliable as…well…Mark Sanchez and the Jets O-line has a gaping hole named Wayne Hunter at right tackle.  I’m a Patriots fan so I love the idea of a QB controversy for the Jets, nothing dismantles a team faster and Sanchez’s first 3 interception game will make the roar for Tebow that much louder and I know the Patriots can beat Tebow.  The only thing better will be watching Santonio Holmes’ head explode after Tebow bounces his first few passes 5 yards in front of Holmes.

The Saints minus Head Coach Sean Payton.  The Saints finally wised up and paid Drew Brees because they knew they couldn’t go into the season without Payton and with Chase Daniel at QB.  Brees can run this offense without Payton but losing a Super Bowl winning coach is going to be tough, they also have to deal with suspensions to some players and Interim Head Coach Joe Vitt.  The Saints division includes a good Atlanta team and rising teams Carolina and Tampa Bay meaning missing a couple of coaches throughout the season puts them at a disadvantage.  This team goes one of two ways its either rally around the leader time (Brees) or they fall apart completely without Payton, Vitt and middle LB Jonathan Vilma.  I think they rally around Brees but their defense just isn’t quite good enough to make it matter.

Peyton Manning in Denver.  Here’s hoping Manning’s neck injury is healed because when he is healthy he’s a joy to watch, even if I hate the Broncos.  Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are the two happiest WR’s in the NFL they just went from Tim Tebow (the bounce pass specialist) to one of the most accurate QB’s in the history of the NFL.  Manning gets to play behind an NFL caliber o-line and with the real possibility of a running game, this will be fairly new to him since he hasn’t had a legitimate left tackle since Tarik Glenn retired or a good running game since Edgerrin James left Indy.  Denver’s only let down could come on defense.

  Rookie QB’s in the NFL.  Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden would like to thank Cam Newton and Andy Dalton for completely screwing them over by being so good last year.  So much for lowered expectations.  Luck was the #1 pick and he should get a little bit of a pass because the best offensive weapon he’ll have at his disposal this season is Reggie Wayne’s corpse and his college TE Coby Fleener.  Indy’s o-line could be a disaster and the best RB on the team is…wait…give me a minute…Donald Brown?…maybe…I think.  RGIII has the most pressure, the Redskins traded 3 first round draft picks and a 2nd rounder to get him and they haven’t had a good QB in Washington since Mark Rypien (I don’t even think I’m joking).  Tannehill has the least pressure, he isn’t expected to start unless he thoroughly out plays two veterans Matt Moore and David Garrard, however, the reason the Dolphins used a top ten pick on Tannehill is because their other options are Matt Moore and David Garrard.  Brandon Weeden was taken later in the 1st round of the draft and immediately deemed the starter of the Cleveland Browns.  If you want to know what that’s like imagine someone telling you that you just won a car and then handing you the keys to a 1992 Ford Escort.  He has a great new RB behind him in Trent Richardson but his top WR was drafted in the supplemental draft a couple of weeks ago and hasn’t played a game of football in over a year (and yes Josh Gordon will be the best WR on the Browns roster).  Good luck to the new Faces of the Franchises.

  QB battles in Training Camp.  This beats out new head coaches simply because the new coaches are not that interesting and some of these battles could be.  Quick breakdown.

-Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck is the grizzled veteran and Jake Locker is the future of the franchise, this is the only battle where it isn’t a case of the lesser of two evils.  The franchise wants Locker but Hasselbeck won’t go away quietly.

-NY Jets: Not really a battle so much as a media driven controversy, this was covered above.

-Cleveland: The job was handed to Brandon Weeden and he would have to fall flat on his face for them to go back to McCoy but anything is possible.

-Jacksonville: Not so much a battle as a team waiting for Blaine Gabbert to suck enough for them to turn it over to Chad Henne until they can draft Matt Barkley, that’s a heck of a QB plan.

-Miami: Matt Moore vs. David Garrard and everyone hoping that Tannehill plays better than both of them, especially Joe Philbin.

-Arizona: Kevin Kolb vs. John Skelton. Kolb makes starter money and Skelton makes 3rd stringer money but Skelton wins games and neither one of these two should be starting for an NFL team but one of them will.

-Seattle: They paid Matt Flynn some good money but it wasn’t a huge investment length wise so Pete Carroll is sticking to his claim that it is a battle between Tavaris Jackson (last year’s starter and the reason they needed a new QB) Matt Flynn the free agent signee and Russell Wilson the surprise 3rd round draft pick.  I’m not buying this battle; Matt Flynn is going to have to be atrocious during the preseason to justify starting Jackson or Wilson.

Quick Hits

New Head Coaches:

Retreads:

-Jeff Fisher (St. Louis) – Big name taking over a team that could turn around quickly.

-Romeo Crennel (Kansas City) – Last year’s interim should be in for a solid year if the Chiefs stay healthy.

-Mike Mularkey (Jacksonville) – Bombed out as Head Coach in Buffalo and was looking like he was on his way out as offensive coordinator in Atlanta, the best the Jags could do?

Newbies:

-Joe Philbin (Miami) – Good offensive coordinator in Green Bay who didn’t get the credit because his head coach is an offensive mastermind.  Dolphins still need a QB solution 85 years after Dan Marino retired (or does it just feel that long to Dolphin fans)

-Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis) – Spent one year as defensive coordinator for the Ravens after a number of years on staff unfortunately he has to try to turn the remnants of Indy’s Tampa-2 defense into a 3-4 unit and it ain’t going to be pretty.  The 3 best players on the defense are Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Pat Angerer and none of them fit a 3-4 alignment.

-Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay) – Turned Rutgers into a respectable program now can he get the Buccaneers turned around.  Raheem Morris was loved by his players but for the wrong reasons, Schiano wants to be loved by his players the way Bill Belichick is loved by his players.  There’s a difference between wanting to have a beer with your coach and being willing to run through a wall for your coach.

-Dennis Allen (Oakland) – Who? Yeah that’s the question everyone asks, Allen did a sensational job with Denver’s defense last year and with Al Davis no longer with us maybe Allen will get more than a year to show us he can really coach.

Free Agency

-Mario Williams was the biggest signing of the offseason when he left Houston and signed with Buffalo but he wasn’t the only DE to sign with the Bills.  They also added Mark Anderson from the Patriots and the two of them combined should have a huge impact on Buffalo’s defense.

-Randy Moss signed with the 49ers and if he can be 25% of the old Randy Moss he’s better than every WR the 49ers had last year.  Jim Harbaugh is already saying Moss is the best receiver they have, no kidding.

-Vincent Jackson signed in Tampa Bay and Josh Freeman hasn’t stopped smiling yet, finally someone who can get open.

-Laurent Robinson signed with Jacksonville and is their best WR; it’s like being the best nonfat cupcake.

-Brandon Carr signed with the Dallas Cowboys and Cowboy fans rejoiced and then asked if he could play safety too.

Other Notes

-Maurice Jones-Drew is holding out from the Jaguars (apparently God hates Blaine Gabbert).  You would think the league’s reigning rushing leader would have some leverage but if you lead the league in rushing and your team goes 5-11 you’re basically asking your agent to hold up a bank using a cap gun.  If they are worse without you this year it just means they will get a higher draft pick and can select Matt Barkley (I really don’t think God cares about the NFL but the evidence is stacking up that Blaine Gabbert did something God didn’t appreciate).

-Adrian Peterson’s knee is healing up (every Vikings fan is hoping anyway).  Christian Ponder is supposed to be the QB of the future unless a guy they drafted to be a WR (Joe Webb) beats him out for the job.  The other 3 QB’s in their division are Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford and they have Christian Ponder, I believe the saying is “never bring a knife to a gun fight”, well Joe Webb is a knife, Ponder is a spoon.

-This post is so damn long people have probably stopped reading by now so I’ll just say; I love the NFL if you couldn’t tell.  This post is approaching 1800 words and I could double that without even trying.

-Don’t worry I’ll get to the Iowa Hawkeyes football team but I’m waiting for some hopefully good news from out east this weekend.

Until next time

Nate

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